Give Me The Rock
this is fantasy basketball
This is part three of the mini-series that’s focusing on teams that were hit hard by the “Four Horsemen” (Injury, Salary Cap, Rebuilding, Bad Contracts) over the off-season.
Unlike some teams (say Houston), the Nets didn’t completely self-destruct this off season. Rather, in one of the first huge trades of the summer, the Nets said sayonara to their best player (apologies to the Devin Harris fan club) and sent Vince Carter to the Magic for Rafer Alston, Tony Battie and Courtney Lee. The big haul for the Nets of course is cash: they’ll save approximately $40 million over the course of the deal.
But they also got some value in return for Carter, especially birthday boy Courtney Lee (who turned 24 yesterday). In his rookie season, Lee started 42 games for Orlando in place of the often injured-but-always-horrible-and-then-traded Keith Bogans. Over the last two months of the season, Lee averaged 9.8 points, 1.3 threes and a steal while starting at shooting guard for the Magic.
Lee might be the front runner for the Nets’ starting shooting guard spot, but he is far from guaranteed the job. Chris Douglas-Roberts and Terrence Williams are competing hard with him during training camp and the battle for minutes is likely going to continue into the regular season. According to the Nets Team Blog (via Scorching Nets):
“The New Jersey Nets are slowly getting into training camp mode and the fierce competition between the wings is helping to move things along. One man that doesn’t have to worry about looking over his own shoulder – point guard Devin Harris – has taken notice of the battle. “It’s nasty, just nasty. From watching, two guys I can point out are Courtney (Lee) and CDR (Chris Douglas-Roberts). That’s going to be a battle all year long. Those guys are really competitive, they do a lot of different things on the court. Obviously, Terrence (Williams) has got a bit of a bulldog in him, too, but that matchup right there … you can see it from playing in pickup. It’s just going to be nasty.”
So by all accounts it looks like it will be a fierce battle for minutes at the 2 for New Jersey. Despite some plantar fasciatis that kept him out of the start of training camp, Lee should begin the season as the starting SG, but split minutes with Douglas-Roberts and possibly Williams.
The split isn’t great news for any of the players’ fantasy value. Lee finished at 169 on our 9-cat player rater last season and will see an increase in value simply because it’ll be his second year in the league and he’ll be starting. Look for him towards the end of a draft if you need threes and steals, but don’t expect a breakout season. Keep an eye on CDR’s and Terrance Williams’ minutes, but they probably aren’t worth drafting in all but the deepest leagues.
It’s probably even a bigger free-for-all for the Nets at the small forward position. Bobby Simmons is the incumbent, if there is such a thing, having started 44 games at small forward for the Nets last season. Trenton Hassell started 31 games towards the end of the season, but eventually lost that gig to Ryan Anderson because he was downright atrocious on the court. Jarvis Hayes and Eduardo Najera are also under contract. Finally, CDR and Williams have the size to play the 3 if needed. Excluding the rookies, all these guys had trouble getting into the GMTR top 150 last season and I wouldn’t expect any change there. Simmons is probably the guy with the most fantasy potential THIS season, but he’s wildly inconsistent and is really only a good source of threes. In addition, it would make sense for the Nets to move Simmons, who is in the last year of his contract and the $10 million he is owed could be a nice expiring contract for some team.
The rest of the Nets starting five is locked down. Devin Harris finished 22/48 on our 8/9-cat rater last season. He’s likely to improve on that this season as he becomes the team’s leader both on offense and in overall. Pencil him in for least 21 points, 7 assists and 1 three a game.
The best rookie last year from a fantasy perspective was not OJ Mayo or Derrick Rose: it was Brook Lopez, who finished the year 53rd on our 9-cat rater. The departure of Carter, a year of maturity for Lopez, and the Nets style of scoring (discussed below) means that the ball should run through Lopez in a post a lot this season. For those of you who purchase the Four Fingers draft guide, you know we’re totally smoking what Lopez is offering. If anyone on the team is going to step up scoring wise – and someone has to replace Carter’s points – it’s Lopez.
According to the Nets’ staff, Yi Jianlian has looked great in the first few days of training camp. I don’t have official word in it, but Yi also thinks he’s looked great. Word is that Jianlian has packed a few pounds on his skeletal body, which will hopefully provide him with more confidence to bang down in the paint a little more this season. Yi’s stats completely flat lined from his rookie season to his sophomore one, but expect him to take a small step forward at least on offense in his third year in the league. But I am firmly in the believe it when I see it camp on Yi.
The Bench: The Nets bench is surprisingly deep. In fact, it will be tough for anyone coming off the bench to get enough play to have legit fantasy value. Just two years ago, Josh Boone was the Nets’ center of the future. Now, he’s a 15 minute a game backup behind Lopez. The 33-year old Tony Battie joins the team in the VC trade as a salary throw in, don’t expect him to do much of anything this year. Sean Williams is the Nets’ version of Chris Andersen, somehow he blocked 0.9 shots a game in 11 minutes on the court last season. Rafer Alston was worth owning as a low-end PG when he was starting for the Rockets. As a back-up behind Harris and possibly even Keyon Dooling? No thank you. Jarvis Hayes can knock down a three and that’s about it. Terrence Williams is a defensive stopper type who will get a chance to blow up as soon as the Nets thin out some of their 25 small forwards.
Now, with the departure of VC, the question becomes who is going to take his shots? Carter and Devin Harris combined for 42.1 points last season, which believe it or not was tops in the NBA for starting backcourts. NetsareScorching looked at that question by breaking down how and where the team shot last season. The answer was the corner three, where the team shot 49% (second in the league behind the Boston Celtics). Half of those threes came from two players: Bobby Simmons and Jarvis Hayes.
The reason that Simmons and Hayes could get all those open threes was Devin Harris’ and Vince Carter’s ability to drive into the lane and get defenses to collapse on them, allowing the ball to be kicked out to the corners. VC’s departure leaves a gaping hole in that plan. So if the Nets plan to keep the three ball coming, then 1) Devin Harris has to penetrate even more this season and 2) the Nets have to work more of an inside out game with Lopez (likely) or Jianlian (less likely). So, what is all means from a fantasy perspective is that Harris and Lopez should have monster years and there will be plenty of threes dropping from Simmons, Hayes and Courtney Lee.
For a rebuilding team, the Nets are going to be good.
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For fantasy analysis even better than this, check out the Four Fingers Draft Guide. Just do it, you’ll be impressed by the size of our diction.
Tags: Brook Lopez, Courtney Lee, Devin Harris, New Jersey Nets, Vince Carter, Yi Jianlian
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