Give Me The Rock
this is fantasy basketball
At this stage of the draft the teams’ visions and/or directions should be getting clearer. Well if it isn’t, then they’re either doing something wrong OR I need a really cold beer to wash it all down. What concerns me at this point, although I don’t know why it should, is that a good number of teams have bounced their way into small-ball type of cores. Perhaps it’s because it was a round filled with prime PG real estate and many wanted to stake their claim on at least one. One thing people should remember about a draft is that they should stay flexible. You have until the fourth round to tweak your strategy.
Round 3
Pick 3-1: Troy Murphy, F/C – I suppose that I do not have to mention that Troy’s body parts are probably held together by gum and scotch tape and has a big chance to miss 10-15 games. Oops! My bad. Aside from the unnecessarily mentioned injury risk Troy brings to this team; he also brings in flexibility. He improves on Brook Lopez’s contributions in the boards category; he adds a three point shooting dimension to the team; he mitigates CP3′s 3.0 TOs; all while still preserving the team’s solid shooting percentages from the floor and the line. Tales of Nine Cats now has the ability to swing things in either the Big ball or Small ball direction while still adding a good third round, value pick. This is an example of the poetry of drafting Chris Paul in the first round. You are not pressured to scamper for assists and steals until much later in the draft, because you have the league’s leader in both those categories.
Pick 3-2: David Lee, F/C – Team Why So Serious has decided to balance out its investments and has chosen to diversify the positions he’s putting his money into. Since he started things off with LBJ, it tends to be logical to surround him with quality PGs and PF/Cs to balance things out. David Lee fortifies the team’s FG% and rebounds; he also softens the impact of Bron’s 3.0 TOs. There’s not much blocking on this team so far, but it’s still early enough in the draft for this team to remain flexible and grab some later on. I agree that percentages should be solidified early in a draft because the high-volume shooters from the field and the line tend to go early. For now, threes look like this team’s only weakness.
Pick 3-3: Gilbert Arenas, PG – Let’s look at Gilbert Arenas’ risk-reward status in the context of this specific fantasy team. Another bust season would just be sick, considering he was picked in the third round. On the other hand, a healthy combo of Dwyane Wade, Joe Johnson, and Agent Zero would be wicked sick! Seriously though, from a purely statistical perspective, Arenas can potentially add a ton of points, a ton of treys, and a good number of steals. For now this pick makes it look like that the team is headed in a small-ball direction. It also should be interesting to note that the team is reasonably competitive in the assist category without the sterotypical passing point guard. The “assists by committee” approach allows drafters to focus on other categories, such as points or steals while still remaining competitive in dime dropping race.
Pick 3-4: Andre Iguodala, G/F – I feel that Andre Iguodala is worth a second round draft consideration this season. I suppose this spot is close enough. Both I and the Philadelphia 76ers will be expecting a lot more from him now that the other Andre has left for Portland. More dimes at the probable expense of more TOs will be the likely changes in Iggy’s stat line. He strengthens the team’s investments in steals and assists. It’s also loaded with good rebounding “small guys” and can actually still remain competitive in that arena with the right big man picks later on.
Pick 3-5: Kevin Martin, SG – If there’s one guy in the third round of a draft that you can anchor your FT% category on, it’s gotta be Kevin Martin. If there’s a player in the third round of a draft whose ankle you’re afraid will fall off after a slight sprain, it’s probably also Kevin Martin. He helps secure this team’s strength in points, FT%, and 3PTM. Assuming he can keep it together, an by “it” I am referring to his health, Martin should be a top 10 scorer easily. I consider him to be a bit of a risky pick at this spot, considering he’s coming from back-to-back injury ridden seasons. Murphy, Arenas, and Martin picks are signs that these drafters are not afraid to do a bit of gambling on some upside early in the draft.
Pick 3-6: Mehmet Okur, F/C – When you see an Okur third-round pick in your head to head draft, it usually means that the team is drafting small ball. Well either that or the team’s being drafted by a hardcore Jazz fan who’s steaming that Deron Williams didn’t fall to him in the second round. When you add Okur’s overall shooting efficiency and low turnovers to that of Jose Calderon, you actually wind up with a team that is fully capable of pulling off a “careful” small-ball variant strategy. I like this pick because it helps secure one of the few center-eligible players that are actually good for the small ball strategy.
Pick 3-7: Jameer Nelson, PG – This pick makes it clear to me what Nels priorities are, and I’m not talking about sex, drugs and living the fantasy-hoops-writing-rockstar’s lifestyle (which probably involves Ibuprofen, Flintstones multivitamins, and minimal sex). His approach is to grab the best FG%, FT%, and lowest turnovers on the market; while rounding out his empty slots and getting some peripheral category gains in the process. With Jose Calderon off the board, Jameer Nelson is the PG-eligible target that best suits Nels’ discriminating needs. Now we have to wonder, “Would Dirk-Calderon-Aldridge have been better than Dirk-Aldridge-Nelson?” Grab the higher volume percentage guys early, they won’t be around very long in most drafts. We will have to wait and see what other categories he will try and diversify into later on, once he’s established a solid core fore his three main cats.
Pick 3-8: Rajon Rondo, PG – Since I have a Rajon Rondo fetish this season, I will try to keep it in my pants. Assuming you, like this team, went double-PF/C bounce in the first two rounds, you will likely want to cover your PG slot sometime in the third or fourth rounds. Even though The Mock-Skeeters have dubbed themselves as a “big ball team”; I would like to point out that both Amar’e and Pau have very good FT% and combined, a reasonably good turnover rate. Both of those are inherent strengths of both guys that Rondo end up dragging down a bit. I generally prefer pairing Rondo later on from my Dwight Howard base drafts. An alternative PG grab at this spot would have been Derrick Rose, who adds good FG% at high volume and should be close to Rondo in terms of dimes per game while still shooting at a more reasonable FT% clip. Rajon’s steals and slight boards advantage were the likely reasons for this pick, but it was at the expense of the points category. It’s not a bad one. I just wanted to point out an alternative given his Stoudemire-Gasol core.
Pick 3-9: David West, PF – I am not clear of where this team is going with his Dwight Howard first-round pick. David would not be the first PF I would consider to join Howard in the front court, but that’s me. Probably it’s because of West’s vanilla, points-boards-focused stat line that I am not too fond of. West does not block, well at least not enough for him to be considered as a solid contributor in that category. This could be looked at as a move to soften the blow of Howard’s FT%, but considering this is H2H, why not punt FT%? As of now, I can cannot clearly define where this team is headed or exactly what approach he is taking in this draft. For now, this should probably be considered as a value pick of some sort. We’ll have to wait and see how the team shapes up.
Pick 3-10: Antawn Jamison, PF – Jamison should promise to provide good fantasy value at this point in the draft. He is a solid, PF-slot filler for small-ball teams and fits in nicely with the Deron-Nash core this team’s got going. Again, this pick is one that provides the team with flexibility in the draft. It allows the drafter to proceed small or big. Keeping up one’s flexibility early on allows you to receive with open arms some unforeseen value picks that may fall your way. It keeps your team still somewhat focused while not sacrificing players’ fantasy value. Steals seem to be traded off for FG%, so far; which is something I don’t like to advocate. It’s early and I think we will see him come around and draft some steal-contributors soon enough.
Pick 3-11: Rashard Lewis, F – Uh-huh. I’m sorry, but I cannot “connect the dots” between Jefferson-Bosh to Lewis in the third round. Aside from adding the obvious three-point shooting dimension to the team’s overall cagtegory strengths, this pick neither diversifies position nor directly contributes to Jefferson and Bosh’s organic strengths. This is the team I would have expected to “reach” for Derrick Rose in the third round, but Rashard’s thrown me off my analysis game. I think I’m going to need some of that Ibuprofen. While the pick does open a few doors, it also pulls down the shades as far as illuminating its direction is concerned.
Pick 3-12: Tony Parker, PG – I am shocked, befuddled, somewhat lost; and yet on a team name level, I understand why Team Project Spurs would want to grab Tony Parker in the third round. He wanted a PG. That part is clear as day, but I wonder why he would want Tony at this point over Derrick Rose. It’s probably that Franco-Texan lovin’ he has for his boy. He adds points, FG%, and assists. It’s good to note that TP improved on his FT% last season. It rose to 78.2% from the previous season’s awful (for a PG) 71.5%. I do consider Tony to be generally underrated by most fantasy experts. Overall, Parker should be solid this season, but I am not convinced that his end-of-season value will match this particular draft position. I suppose it was likely that the drafter did not expect Parker to fall in to him in the fifth round. I wonder if he’s picking Tim Duncan to lead things off in the fourth round. Place your bets!
Drafter Quote of the Round
“Can’t believe both my top small-ball centers were gone by the 30th pick.” – Team Pwangsta
Previous Rounds
Tags: Andre Iguodala, Antawn Jamison, David Lee, David West, Gilbert arenas, Jameer Nelson, Kevin Martin, Mehmet Okur, Mock Drafts, Rajon Rondo, Rashard Lewis, Tony Parker, Troy Murphy
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