Give Me The Rock
this is fantasy basketball
Rounds five and six of most drafts are when “real reaching” begins to happen as more and more drafters pick up guys they want to speculate on. This is the zone wherein players values start to get a bit more debatable, and that’s actually part of what makes fantasy basketball so great; the fact that so many people can have so many varying outlooks on players. It’s interesting to note that this round looks a lot like a surreal Golden State Warriors Reunion.
Photo by Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images
Round 5
Pick 5-1: Nene Hilario, F/C – Nene was one of last season’s surprises. I doubt anyone saw him coming. Still, his injury risk factor is scary. To calm our worries, however, Coach George Karl knows how to keep his big men healthy. Remember what he was able to do for Camby two seasons back? Having Nene as a front court partner for Brook Lopez is pretty decent, and that’s exactly the role Nene should play on any fantasy team – second center. This team likes ‘em steals! He has the overall league leader in Chris Paul and now has grabbed the league leader in the category among centers. Not bad.
Pick 5-2: Al Horford, F/C - Horford is potentially a double-double averaging candidate this season and is capable of chipping in 1+ blocks and possibly 1-steal per game too. His lack of scoring volume should more than likely be easily compensated by Bron, Rose, and Harris. For now, this team is banking on Al and LeBron for blocks and it appears that it won’t do to well against some of the other teams. The rebounds department is looking a lot better now that Horford, Lee, and James are crashing the boards.
Pick 5-3: Monta Ellis, G – This team has assembled one of the potentially most dominating backcourts in this league. Adding Ellis to the core of Wade, Joe Johnson, Arenas is just wicked! If Team Kardashian Babymaker’s speculations are on point, it will give a lot of some of the “purer” small-ball teams a headache when they are matched up against it. Contrary to what some naysayers believe, I think that Ellis’ assist will see an upward spike this season. This will be his first true full season to run things at the point for Golden State. As long as he doesn’t go on any weird-ass, moped-riding excursions; he should bring this team 20 points, good percentages, five dimes, and almost two steals per game.
Pick 5-4: Paul Pierce, G/F – I think that Pierce is a very good value pick at this spot. Even if you predict a continuation of the statistical decline over the past couple of years, he should still bring a fantasy punch that exceeds this draft position. This team now has a trio of dynamic, multi-cat-contributing swingmen in Iguodala, Durant, and Pierce. Jason Kidd fits in well with the multi-cat theme from the PG spot, but Tim Duncan appears to be the “odd man out” of sorts in this mix. Nonetheless, this team has had a consistent run of “best player available” picks thus far. That seems to be the consistent trend in its approach to this draft; which is good considering the wealth of value he’s been grabbing every single round.
Pick 5-5: Stephen Jackson, G/F – Let’s put aside for a brief moment the aura of uncertainty surrounding Captain Jack and look at how he fits into this team. Since the team has appeared to go for a “pure” small-ball strategy, Jackson’s organic fantasy weaknesses are not as pronounced when looked at in the context that his FG% and TOs can be punted anyway. Now, back to his issues. Jackson is an injury risk and now also apparently a personality risk as well. Will we see an Al Harrington-esque tantrum from him at some point in this season? How much time will he miss due to injury? If and when he’s traded, where will he go? How will he mesh, or not mesh, with his new team? So many questions, too little upside…
Pick 5-6: Baron Davis, PG – A feel it’s a tad early to grab Baron. Then again, I’m a fantasy expert who isn’t very high on him this season. Optimistically speaking, Baron may actually be out to prove naysayers like myself wrong this time around. For the Clippers and Coach Dunleavy’s sake, they’re going to want to see the 20+ PPG; 2+ 3PPG; 8
+ APG; 1.8 SPG; stat-slinging version of B-Diddy that we all know is in there – somewhere. It’s a good thing that Jose Calderon and Mehmet Okur are players that are generally easy on the TOs, because Boom Dizzle’s should be good for more than three of those a night.
Pick 5-7: John Salmons, G/F – This is pretty much where I personally end up grabbing John Salmons in almost ALL my mock drafts. Why almost all? Well, his FG% is acceptable for my big-ball strategies and his points, assists, and threes sit very well with my small-ball strategies. So yes, if you’re in a draft room with me, expect a John Salmons pick at some point in the draft. The combination of his relatively low TOs and solid shooting percentages make him a good SG for Nels’ team. So far, Nels has been consistent with the direction he’s mapped out for his team kind of like his first round pick, Dirk.
Pick 5-8: Paul Millsap, F – The slow-motion effect the Jazz have added to the Boozer trade action sequence has kind of put a damper on Paul’s expected upside. While we know that this worry will be but short-lived, it does muddle his projected value a bit. One interesting development in his fantasy status is that Yahoo has removed Paul’s PF/C status and moved him up to SF/PF. Now even if we don’t see his expected upside value to come to fruition right away, whatever he can bring in the interim is awesome when coming from a big-ball team’s SF slot. It allows the Big-ball team to really load-up on the big man stats. That bonus is probably enough to up his draft value for strategy-specific focused teams.
Pick 5-9: Mo Williams, PG – I think that Mo should remain as one of the more consistent fantasy factors in the Cavaliers team. I do not know how effectively his stat set interacts or complements the array brought by Dwight Howard, from a strategic perspective, but then again I’ve been saying that same thing about many this team’s previous picks from the get-go. Value for value’s sake though, Mo is a good pick in the fifth round.
Pick 5-10: Andrea Bargnani, F/C – Bargnani is on my upside list and the fifth round is just about where I expect his value to end up by season’s end. He’s a quality small-ball center and fits this team like a glove. It was a good move that this point for this team to make sure it secured a center. I generally like to make sure that I at least have one center-eligible player by the fifth round. The value drop-off after this point is pretty pronounced. This is especially important for small-ball teams as their optimal guys tend to get snatched up early.
Pick 5-11: Andris Biedrins, C – Not only is Biedrins a good value pick for this round, he also rounds out a now solid core of big men. Bosh, Al Jefferson, and Biedrins. This team’s rebounding and FG% will be tough to compete with. Andris also fits in with the team’s intention to be cautious about the amount of turnovers that its players generate. The only consideration drafters may or possibly should have about Biedrins’ outlook for this season can be summed up in two words – Anthony Randolph. Can this emerging front court force steal some of the opportunities for Biedrins to deliver the fantasy production we are looking for? Can they share the Warriors’ front court duties in such a way that they will both bring wicked fantasy lines? We’ll have to wait and see.
Pick 5-12: O.J. Mayo, G – I’m personally a bit worried that Mayo will take the biggest fantasy hit by Allen Iverson’s addition to the Memphis Grizzlies’ roster. He should be good for some points, a decent number of treys and a handful of assists. He improves the three-point shooting dimension of this team. Mayo helps make the team more well rounded, but at this point I wonder if it should have gone for a center instead.
Drafter Quote of the Round
“Pierce is pretty clearly the best player avalible so I’ll take him even though I sort of hate him. Plus, even if he gets hurt so badly he needs a wheelchair he’ll be back in 30 minutes.” – Team Shawn Kemp’s Kidz, on picking Paul Pierce
Previous Rounds
Round 1, Round 2, Round 3, Round 4
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