Give Me The Rock
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Here is part two of our week-long rundown of top 10 fantasy players at each position going into the year. Why 10? Because you’ll need to buy the Four Fingers Draft Guide to see all 40. Anyway, here are the best of the best shooting guards.
1. Kobe Bryant
Is there a less enjoyable first round draft pick than Kobe? Chalk it up to the fact that the 31 year old has been a first rounder every year for the last decade. But his run as one of the best players in the league is not going to end this year, even if new Laker Ron Artest is guaranteed to sabotage the team at some point during the season. Kobe’s stats are slightly down from his peak of a few years ago (I wouldn’t count on him averaging 30 points a game again in his career) but you can count on Kobe to play though minor injuries and he is one of the most consistent players in the league. Expect a line of around 27/5/5 and a worthy mid-first round pick in all leagues.
2. Dwyane Wade
Wade should come off the board right after Kobe. In terms of pure production, you can argue that Wade is the best in the NBA: he led the league in scoring (30.2 PPG) and averaged 7.5 dimes, five boards, and over two steals a game last season. Despite the fact that he was healthy all of last year and played in 79 games, there will always be the fear that Wade’s body fails under the stress of his style of play again. But his production is well worth the risk and he’ll be playing for a new contract in 2010 if you believe in that kind of thing.
3. Brandon Roy
Roy benefited last season from the quintessential “third year bump” – he increased his scoring by 3.5 points a game to 22.6 and took his field goal and free throw percentages from “pretty good” to “damn that’s hot” levels. The Blazers’ acquisition of veteran point guard, Andre Miller would seem to suggest his assist totals will go down as the team won’t have to rely on him as a point guard as much this year. On the other hand, being set up by Miller is good for the scoring, so a hit in assists will probably be offset by an increase in his scoring numbers. Overall, 23+ points a night with good percentages and low turnovers puts Roy in a tier slightly below Kobe and Wade, but slightly above our next group of shooting guards.
4. Joe Johnson
So many fantasy owners sleep on the understated Johnson come draft day. Ranking in the top 10 in minutes per game in each of the last six years, the wear and tear might be starting to show on those knees, which is a big reason why the Hawks brought in Jamal Crawford to back up both guard positions. With the expected hit in minutes, his counting stats should suffer small dips, but it’s possible his FG% and 3PT% could rise with less on-the-ball responsibility. JJ ain’t a sexy pick, but at 28 years old he’s right in the prime of his career.
5. Vince Carter
Carter will fit nicely into the playmaking swingman role that Hedo Turkoglu occupied in Orlando for the last few seasons. The move should also get him to play a slightly more inspired brand of basketball now that he’s competing for a ring instead of wallowing away in the Jersey wasteland. For some reason, Carter still brings baggage with him from earlier in his career, but the man is no longer the injury risk he once was. Over the last three years, he’s played in 82, 76, and 80 games. Dare we say that Vince is actually consistent now? 22/5/4 with a steal and a couple threes a game is a one of the more predictable stat lines among the shooting guards.
6. Kevin Martin
Kevin Martin…. so much potential, so many injuries. When he is healthy – which has not been often – he’s a top 15 talent with the potential to score 25 points with 2+ threes a game. He’s also the best free throw shooter in the league thanks to his 10.3 attempts per game at 86.7%. On the flip side is his waif-like figure, which led him to miss 52 games over the past two years. Martin is certainly one of the riskiest picks in this year’s draft, but grabbing a second round talent in the fourth round is what makes or breaks champions…
Oh, and on the positive side, games played happens to be the least consistent stat from one year to the next in the NBA.
7. Monta Ellis
Ellis, who is still only 24 years old, is the ultimate tweener guard with a ton of potential. Given his youth, expect him to continue to improve as a scorer. Plus he also plays for a team that prefers offense over defense any day of the week and twice on Sundays. Risk lies in the potential moped injury, or even falling out of favor in the fickle lineups of Don Nelson. Thankfully, Ellis has a huge contract and is of little risk to be moved out of the Bay Area. If your team is in need of a scoring first guard with possible breakout potential, Ellis and his dual-position eligibility may be your answer.
8. Eric Gordon
GMTR. Loves. Gordon. If you’re looking for a breakthrough performance, Eric Gordon should be near the top of your list. He actually broke out last year during the latter half of his rookie campaign but no one really seemed to notice much. Being on the Clippers certainly didn’t help, but Gordon took over the starting SG job for the Clips on Nov. 24 and kept it for the next 65 games. Just 19 years old during his first start, he averaged 18.4 PPG and 1.9 3PM on 46.3 FG% and 85.5 FT% over those 65 games. Now he’ll have stud Blake Griffin helping him out and perhaps a healthy Baron Davis setting him up for quality shots. Are there no limits to his abilities? Actually he’s not quite the Messiah, but he was born on December 25.
9. Ray Allen
The eternally youthful Ray Allen keeps piling up big season after big season. His second year with Boston was as good as the first: 18 points and 2.5 threes with wicked good percentages. The fact that he’s 34 years old might scare some people away on draft day, but the Celtics are still undermanned at the guard positions and Allen did play in 79 games last season. Expect Allen to continue to get 35 minutes a game as long as his body can take it and you can count on him to be one of the best three point shooters in the league. He could end up being a steal in the early-mid-rounds.
10. John Salmons
Salmons has worked hard over the years to turn himself into a legitimate scoring threat on a nightly basis and he proved he could get it done on two different teams last year. With Ben Gordon’s departure, Salmons will be asked to pick up any of the slack that Luol Deng can’t handle in his return from injury. This means more of the same from Salmons and a likely repeat of his career season. Wait, can you repeat a career season? John Salmons sure the hell can. Considering many people are still not totally sold on his game, he should be available at a Jason Terry-like bargain in drafts this year.
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For the rest of our top 40 list of shooting guards (as well as the rankings of the other positions, positional tiers, and cheat sheets), you’ll have to check out the Four Fingers Draft Guide. Now with 100% more Nick Young.
Tags: Brandon Roy, Dwyane Wade, eric gordon, Joe Johnson, John Salmons, Kevin Martin, Kobe Bryant, Monta Ellis, Ray Allen, Vince Carter
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