Buy or Sell? Guys Off to a Fast Start

Categorized as: Author: Patrick, Fantasy Basketball
Posted on: November 8th, 2009

With the NBA season just about two weeks old, we are starting to get a handle on the NBA landscape in terms of player value – who has started off the season hot, who has looked bad so far, and who we won’t be seeing anytime soon.

There are a lot of players who are either way over or underperforming their expectations (or draft position) through the first two weeks. So, with the help of Nels and Erik, we’re going to take a look at these players and whether we think their performance so far has been a fluke or whether it represents their true value (or close to it). Part 1 looks at the guys who have started off the season on fire using the tried and true stock market scale of BUY, HOLD, or SELL.

I asked Nels and Erik to rate each player on that scale using the following guidelines:

BUY – While the guy might not be quite as good as he’s shown so far, I’d go out and trade for him even if I had to pay a premium, cause he’s the real deal.

HOLD – I’d keep him if I owned him, but it isn’t worth the risk to overpay for a guy who is probably overperforming.

SELL – No way the guy is this good. Time to get trade him while he has some value.

So here are the guys who have surpassed all expectations after two weeks (with their rank on the GMTR player rater in parenthesis).

Chris Kaman (7)

Nels – SELL
Erik – HOLD
Patrick – SELL

Oh God, please SELL -Nels

Kaman has had spurts of greatness before, especially in 07-08 when he averaged a 16/13 over 50 odd games. But he’s an injury waiting to happen. Add in the fact that Blake Griffin will be back in a few weeks and he’s a clear sell high candidate. -Patrick

Marc Gasol (10)

Nels – HOLD
Erik – SELL
Patrick – HOLD

I’m not convinced he’s worth what you’d have to give up to get him, but he’s definitely worth hanging on to even if he settles down a bit. -Nels

Gasol is not going to finish the year as the 10th rated fantasy player in the NBA, but he did show last year he’s in the NBA for more than just nepotism. His game is legit and in the same vein as his brother Pau. -Patrick

Ben Gordon (21)

Nels – HOLD
Erik – HOLD
Patrick – BUY

BG does what BG does. He’s basically scoring more because he’s playing more minutes and getting more free throws. Let’s keep in mind that Rip Hamilton has only played 1 game this season. -Nels

This much I know. The Pistons absolutely need help scoring and that’s what Gordon Excels at. While he’ll take a little hit playing time wise when Rip Hamilton returns from injury, he’s still going to be the first man off the bench for the Pistons and can excel in a Jason Terry like 6th man role. -Patrick

Danilo Gallinari (32)

Nels – HOLD
Erik – HOLD
Patrick – BUY

Gotta love you some Danilo. He’s not going to make 4 threes a game for the whole year, but he’s starting now for the fantasy friendly Knickerbockers, and that’s worth hanging on to. I’d almost make this a BUY, but you’ll probably have to give up a lot to get him since he’s hot right now. -Nels

He’s not going to average 4 threes a game like he started off the year, but he’s one of the best scorers on a team that likes to move the ball. If someone offered you Gallinari for say Thaddeus Young, you’re at least thinking about making that trade. -Patrick

Channing Frye (38)

Nels – SELL
Erik – HOLD
Patrick – SELL

SELL him faster than Chris Kaman! The Suns may be Fantasy Magic, but seriously, it’s Channing Frye! Let’s remember, Manute Bol once made 7 threes in a game. -Nels

That new center smell is already starting to fade for Frye, who has scored 9, 5, and 8 points in his past 3 games. And in the fact that he’s not a very good rebounder or blocker and you’re left with a 7 foot tall version of Eddie House. -Patrick

Andrei Kirilenko (39)

Nels – SELL
Erik – SELL
Patrick – SELL

38 minutes per game? Yeah, that’s not going to happen for another 70 games. -Nels

I don’t trust his act one bit. AK has never averaged 38 minutes a game over the course of a season in his career. Sell high before he gets hurt. -Patrick

Roy Hibbert (58)

Nels – BUY
Erik – BUY
Patrick – HOLD

He’s probably a little overvalued right now, but not too much, and he’s a Big Ball team’s dream come true. -Nels

While I’m not completely sold on Hibbert and his body that always reminded me of a giant praying mantis, I will admit he has looked good so far this year. Jeff Foster is out for the next couple weeks, so ride the big man for now. -Patrick

Brandon Jennings (50)

Nels – SELL/HOLD
Erik – HOLD
Patrick – SELL

SELL if you can get someone with a proven track record. Otherwise, HOLD on and hope that he continues to play like an All Star all year (or at least until he hits a rookie wall). -Nels

I’m probably biased because I hate all rookies and, now that I think about it, young people in general. -Patrick

Chuck Hayes (53)

Nels – HOLD
Erik – HOLD
Patrick – HOLD

64% FG shooting is not a realistic expectation, neither are 2.4 assists, but 8 and 8 is good to go. -Nels

Look at his lines with your untrained eyes and they are woefully unimpressive. Add it all up and it’s something, especially if you could use rebounds or steals or a center eligible player. -Patrick

J.J. Redick (59)

Nels – REALLY?
Erik – SELL
Patrick – SELL

Vince Carter has played 2 less games than Redick, and 10 less minutes per game. Seeing as Vince actually has a reason to want to play in Orlando, I don’t see Redick maintaining a 33 minute per game average for long. -Nels

If my leagues are any indication, I think everyone has already sold on him. Vince Carter should be back any game now, but if he happens to go down again, grab Redick immediately. -Patrick

Andray Blatche (73)

Nels – MEH
Erik – SELL
Patrick – HOLD

Jamison will be back in two weeks -Erik

He’s a hold because I don’t think anyone is buying, especially with Antawn Jamison on his way back. Blatche had a nice five games to start the season, but Friday’s 1 point, 3 board performance seems like the beginning of the end for his fantasy prospects. -Patrick

Marreese Speights (74)

Nels – SELL/HOLD
Erik – HOLD
Patrick – HOLD

If you can get someone up around the top 75 for Marreese, then do it. I doubt he’s going to keep up with 14 and 8 in only 23 minutes. But he’s a good player and capable of numbers. -Nels

Doubt he’ll get the playing time this season to truly break out with fantasy basketball black hole known as Samuel Dalembert roaming the middle for the Sixers, but put him on your sleeper list for next season. -Patrick

Greg Oden (78)

Nels – HOLD/BUY
Erik – HOLD/BUY
Patrick – BUY

If you’ve got him, hold him (provided you’re running a Big Ball team). People are probably willing to sell low on him right now since it’s kind of hard to believe he’s not going to get injured again. I have a little more faith in him than that. -Nels

If he could just stop fouling people we’d be onto something here. -Patrick

Ty Lawson (90)

Nels – SELL
Erik – SELL
Patrick – SELL

The return of J.R. Smith from suspension is going to kill Lawson’s minutes. He’s shown enough so far that he’ll probably take over the backup PG spot from Anthony Carter, but it’s impossible to be a valuable fantasy contributor getting only 15 minutes a game. -Patrick

Ryan Anderson (92)

Nels – SELL
Erik – SELL
Patrick – SELL

Rashard Lewis would have killed any value Anderson had until Anderson preemptively struck by spraining his ankle in Saturday’s game. -Patrick

***

Part 2 of this post coming soon. A look at the players with high expectations going into the year who are off to slow starts.

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