Buy or Sell? Guys off to a Slow Start

Categorized as: Author: Patrick, Fantasy Basketball
Posted on: November 13th, 2009

In Part 1 of this post, we looked at the players who started off the season hot – whether it be a shirtless Danilo Gallinari or Channing Frye dropping threes – and predicted if we thought their fast start was for real or if you should sell high on a player who was playing above his head.

In this post, we’ll look at the flip side of that equation – the players who were drafted high and are now underperforming what was expected from them through this point in the season. Like in the last post, Nels, Erik and I went through the list of underperformers (basically, guys who were drafted in the top 120 of most drafts and are now significantly below their draft position based on the GMTR rankings) and gave them a BUY, HOLD, or SELL using the following guidelines:

BUY – The player is much better than he’s shown so far this year. Time to trade for him or pick him up off free agency while his value is at its lowest.

HOLD – I’d keep him if I owned him, but it isn’t worth the risk to go out and trade for a guy who might be in for a bad year.

SELL – While the guy might not be quite as bad he’s shown so far, it is time to cut him loose while he still has some value left.

So here are the guys who have been killing fantasy owners around the world after the first three weeks of the season (with their current rank on the GMTR player rater in parenthesis).

—

Nate Robinson (277)

Nels – BUY
Erik – BUY
Patrick – BUY

Don’t forget: Knicks = Fantasy Magic as long as D’Antoni is around. He had 17 and 6 the game before he sprained his ankle. -Nels

The Knicks have consistently done everything possible to minimize Robinson’s role on the team, which means that the rejuvenation of Larry Hughes and very recent emergence of rookie Toney Douglas is a bad sign for Robinson. Still, considering that he has probably been dropped in a lot of leagues, you’ve got to like the price you can get him for. -Patrick

Nate Robinson is the equivalent of an extra value meal at this point in the season.

Mike Conley (184)

Nels – SELL
Erik – HOLD
Patrick – SELL

Sorry, I lost faith in him a long time ago. Sure, AI is gone now, but the Grizz have some players who are actually pretty decent, so there’s not a need for him to do much more than he’s doing now. -Nels

Conley only played 17 minutes in the Grizzlies last game before getting benched in place of Marcus Williams. Iverson or no Iverson, Conley just isn’t that good. He did heat up last season around February, but do you really want to wait for him to maybe put it all together again at the end of the season? There are much better PGs in the league to target for a trade. Like all of them.

Andre Miller (169)

Nels – HOLD
Erik – SELL
Patrick – HOLD

He’s shooting poorly for him and will probably improve as he gets used to playing with a team that has more than one other All Star on it. -Nels

Well, he’s starting now, so that’s good. But his minutes are not going to surpass about 30 a game (6 less than last year) meaning his fantasy-related stats are in for a decline across the board.

Thaddeus Young (159)

Nels – HOLD
Erik – HOLD
Patrick – BUY

I just can’t bring myself to believe that Thad is going to continue his regression for the whole season… -Nels

Ok, maybe he’s not quite ready to explode this year, but it simply looks like a case of Young not having his shot to begin the season. The 42% from the floor 19% from three is going to improve, and as a result, so will his scoring. -Patrick

Paul Millsap (151)

Nels – BUY
Erik – HOLD
Patrick – HOLD

Everyone knows we’re just waiting for Boozer to get shipped out before Millsap can get back to doing what he did last season. Don’t overpay, though, cause if that somehow doesn’t happen, Millsap is in a very difficult position. -Nels

As a Millsap owner myself, I attest to the fact that no one is buying Millsap at the moment. It’d be great if Boozer got moved, but the Jazz are a much better team with him on the court, so personally I don’t think the outlook is good for Millsap this season. -Patrick

Caron Butler (138)

Nels – HOLD
Erik – SELL
Patrick – BUY

He’s only got 4 assists in 7 games. That can’t be for real. And he’s only shooting 39%. I wouldn’t take a risk in trading for him, but don’t try to sell him right now because you won’t get what he should end up being worth at the end of the season. -Nels

We expected that the return of Arenas might negatively affect Butler’s fantasy value, but damn it’s been ridiculous so far this season. The good news is that Butler has looked a little more like himself in the Wizards last 3 games, including a total of 6 steals over that time. The bad news is that his assists are way down and will likely stay that way because the Wizards have done away with the Princeton offense. -Patrick

Derrick Rose (131)

Nels – BUY
Erik – BUY
Patrick – BUY

He’s still adjusting to life without Ben Gordon, and life with John Salmon’s shooting slump. He’ll definitely end up higher than 131. -Nels

Supporting the collective weight of the city of Chicago on his shoulders appears to have slowed down Rose this season. Ok, the ankle injury that kept him out of most of the preseason left him with a ton of rust to shake off while playing in actual games. Grab Rose from his nervous owner in your league if possible because he’ll be fine this year. -Patrick

Jose Calderon (107)

Nels – ?
Erik – BUY
Patrick – BUY

I have no idea. He’s not playing that much worse than last year. His FT shooting is down a lot, but he doesn’t shoot that many of them, so who knows… -Nels

A tentative buy considering his minutes will likely be down from last season. Still, the 71% from the line is going to improve as will the assists. -Patrick

Al Jefferson (95)

Nels – BUY
Erik – HOLD/SELL
Patrick – HOLD

He’s only playing 30 minutes per game this year because he’s still recovering a bit from his surgery last year. If he can work up to playing 35-36 minutes again, he’ll be back to his awesome self. -Nels

Buy if you can get him at a decent price, but considering his draft position and the fact that he plays center, I’m guessing you’d have to overpay to get him. Anytime a guy is “not 100%” in the NBA, be wary of him missing a bunch of games. -Patrick

Jason Kidd (63)

Nels – BUY
Erik – SELL
Patrick – HOLD

I don’t know… I’ve been waiting for Kidd to fall off for a long time now, but I don’t think he’ll end up any lower than where is currently is ranked this year, so if you can get him for someone in that range, I say do it. -Nels

Kidd’s stats have been on the slow decline for about 3 years now. He is what he is at this point. -Patrick

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Tags: Al Jefferson, Andre Miller, Caron Butler, Derrick Rose, Jason Kidd, Jose Calderon, Mike Conley, Nate Robinson, Paul Millsap, Thaddeus Young