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Day 21 of 170: Capt Jack Sails Away

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Categorized as: Author: Patrick, Fantasy Basketball
Posted on: November 17th, 2009

Line of the Night: Dirk Nowitzki (1.12) may not make an exciting first round pick on draft day, but Dirk owners have got to be excited with what he’s doing so far this year. In an overtime win against the Bucks, Dirk’s latest line included 32 points with 11 boards and a couple steals. After 11 games, his stats are up across the board over last year and he’s partying like its 2005. If Josh Howard ever returns Dirk’s stats could see a drop back to 2008-09 levels, but for now just ride him like a German donkey.

dirk-nowitzki

Honorable Mentions: It’s an all-Hawks love affair – Josh Smith (0.76) cruised to another double-double with 20 points and 16 boards in an overtime win against the Blazers; Al Horford (0.75) had a double-double himself with 15 and 10 off 7-10 shooting; and Joe Johnson (0.68) used the overtime to score 35 points and drop 9 assists.

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Luke Ridnour (0.83) saw a season high 34 minutes off the bench in the Bucks/Mavs overtime game, scoring 17 points with 6 assists and 4 steals. Ridnour could continue to see increased minutes off the bench while Michael Redd is out, but I’d like to see him do it in a non-overtime game before recommending adding him.

A few days after I suggested dropping Rudy Fernandez (0.7), he hits 4 threes against the Hawks on his way to 19 points in 32 minutes off the bench. I’m still not completely sold on what Fernandez has been doing this year and like Ridnour, I’ll have to see a few more good non-overtime performances from him before I’m buying.

Trade of the Night: It was only a matter of time before the Warriors sent Stephen Jackson packing, but no one really expected his destination to be Charlotte. But that’s where Jackson and Acie Law are headed after being traded for Raja Bell and Vladimir Radmanovic. In his first game with the Bobcats, Jackson started at SG and scored 13 points on 4-14 shooting with 9 boards and a couple steals. Jackson got 45 minutes on the court compared to 13 for the now completely expendable D.J. Augustin.

The Biggest Loser: Jamal Crawford (-0.62) was the yin to Joe Johnson’s yang, shooting 2-10 on the night and finishing with 6 points, 0 rebounds and 3 turnovers.

Also, I wanted to let everyone know that my ass physically hurts after drafting Marvin Williams (-0.16) in about 4 leagues this season. Williams continued his assault on my sensibilities with 4 points on 2-6 shooting. I’m a fairly patient man when it comes to fantasy, but even I’m getting ready to drop Williams.

The good news is that Rashard Lewis (-0.54) is back from his 10 game suspension. The bad news was a 4-15 shooting night (0-6 from three) to finish with 10 points. Still, the minutes are already there for Lewis and you should let him shoot off the rust in your lineup.

All Eyez on Me:

Golden State (3-6) at Cleveland (7-3) – not only do we get a LeBron vs. Golden State matchup, we get to see how new Warriors Raja Bell and Vladimir Radmanovic fit in with the team. Shaq is doubtful for this game, meaning all you Ilgauskas fans should get him in your lineup asap.

Chicago (5-4) at Sacramento (5-4) – Wait a second, Sacramento has a winning record? After losing Kevin Martin? A big reason why is Jason Thompson, who is getting more minutes than last year and is one of the league’s best rebounders. Rookie Tyreke Evans has also been coming on strong, averaging 24 points a game during the King’s current 4 game winning streak.

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Other Stuff Like This:

  • Adam Wisniewski
    Between Vince, Tony Parker, Dampier, Speights and now Jameer Nelson (4-6weeks), all being hurt, how am I supposed to figure out if my team is any good?
  • Patrick
    I think with every day that passes, we get further away from reality. And don't forget Chris Paul, who was carrying one of my teams to the top of the league. Now, we'll be lucky to see him before Thanksgiving.
  • brendank
    Maybe I'm jumping the gun here, but I've watched the Bucks quite a bit this season and I'm becoming a fan of Ersan Ilyasova as a "glue guy" for fantasy purposes. Maybe after Michael Redd comes back, the minutes crunch between him Delfino, and Warrick will dilute his value... but I think he's going to grow into a legit rotation player who contributes (conservative guess) 1-1.5 treys, 1+ steals and 5+ rebounds a game in his career. Eventually.
  • I agree. What's the over/under on how many more years Redd will try to play before retiring?
  • brendank
    Man... That could really go one of two ways, can't it? I could see Redd playing till he's 37 or 28, fading into the back end of some borderline contender's rotation on a 1 year contract, getting under 20 min a game and not playing in the playoffs. Or I could see him having career ending surgery in his first game back this season. Dunno. What do you think?

    Sub-question: Will Brandon Jennings be a better or worse fantasy player when Redd Returns? Fewer shots taken, for sure, so decreased points and threes (better FG%?) But having another qualified scorer MIGHT help his assists a touch, and would almost certainly let him rebound more (love his potential as a rebounding PG.) Overall increase or decrease in value?
  • Patrick
    We'll just have to see how Redd's career plays out, but I'd gladly take the under on Redd playing until he's 37 years old.

    Regarding Jennings, I'd like to see some numbers behind this, but I've always assumed that the more a player has the ball in his hands, the better his fantasy potential even if his efficiency will likely decrease. It's why someone like Rafer Alston was actually a viable fantasy PG for a number of years. Provided Redd can play a decent number of games this year, we'll have to remember to look back at Jennings splits to see what happened. Should be interesting.
  • brendank
    Actually, I wrote an article essentially saying that back when I was a fantasy basketball blogger (remember those days?) and I pretty much attributed Danny Granger's value to his ridiculous usage rates.

    By my estimation, there are two kinds of fantasy studs: Those who are great even with very good teammates (Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki) and those who are great at least in part do to a lack of having good teammates (Granger.) I'm not saying that great players with bad teammates are inherrently of the second type (Dwayne Wade, for example, has proven to be a beast on a good team and a slightly-bigger beast on a bad one) but if a player DOES fall into the second category, I consider their value to be far less secure than the latter.

    Kobe Bryant is gonna be Kobe even playing alongside some of the best players in the league. I'm not sure we could say the same thing if Granger (a dominant wng player) was playing with a good/great post player and/or point guard. He'd certainly be awesome, but top 3-5? Not so sure...

    Oh, and then there's the inverse of the type 2 stud: Those who are only good with good teammates. This is rare, as typically a top 5 player is a self-contained value, but how else do you explain Shawn Marion?
  • Patrick
    Those were good days indeed...

    I like your general classification of fantasy studs. I don't think there are too many guys in the league who are both talented enough and egotistical enough (in a good way) to perform at the level someone like Kobe does with the talent around him. Most of the good players in the league are more like Paul Pierce, who is still very good talent-wise these days, but definitely gave up being the guy for a crappy Celtics team to go after a ring (those who are not willing to change like Pierce end up walking the path of Iverson).

    So, I think the interesting question is are there any guys in the league without the talent of Kobe, Wade, Dirk, etc who would be just as good on a team stacked with talent as they would be on a team like the Pacers or the Bobcats? I’d guess yes, but no one jumps to mind right now.

    I'd have to watch more of Granger to form a solid opinion on him, but from what I've seen of him this year I think you might be selling his game a little short. Maybe he couldn't switch places with Kobe and stay a top 5 fantasy guy, but on 25 of the other teams he might be able to.

    And yeah, Marion is a very good example of someone who needs good teammates (especially a good PG I guess) to be good.
  • Adam Wisniewski
    Seems like Rudy Fernandez will be getting most of Travis Outlaw's minutes by the looks of the last two games. He doesn't rebound or distribute that much, but he will get some steals and drop treys.
  • Patrick
    Very good point, I had missed the news about Outlaw. Like you said, Fernandez can hit the three and as a result makes a decent add if you're in need of treys as long as Outlaw is out.
  • Patrick
    Can't argue with either of you guys for making that move.
  • Name
    Same here - someone had dropped Mike Miller when he got injured so I scooped him up for Williams. At least he was just an 11th rounder for me.
  • upstateunderdog
    You are more patient than I am. I dropped Marvin Williams yesterday.
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