Give Me The Rock
this is fantasy basketball
Each week some of fantasy basketballs greatest strategic thinkers assemble to debate and explore interesting issues pertaining to fantasy basketball. A big thanks to Ryan Lester from Lesters Legends for bringing this together.
Sitting at the Fantasy Hoops Roundtable:
- Alex Woods, BleacherCreatureRotoTalk
- Ryan Lester, Lester’s Legends
- Your Dear Friends at Empty the Bench
- Nels and Patrick, Give Me the Rock
- Jon, Bleacher Report
- Tommy Beer, HoopsWorld
- Erik Ong, Points in the Paint
This Week’s Topic
Which injured player would you recommend trying to acquire right now? (Assuming that since they’re injured you can get them at below their potential value)
Call me someone who likes headaches (and heartaches), but I would have to say that I would like to acquire Kevin Martin (SG) of the Sacramento Kings. He was just great while he was healthy and assuming he can get back to 100% health by mid-January, then I expect his fantasy performance to be as productive as it was before he went down.
As tempting as Danny Granger (G/F) would be, his recovery is much farther down the season. Kevin on the other hand, I rate as having the most balance in terms of a.) Historical performance b.) Closest to timetable of recovery c.) Potential to return to form d.) Has reputation of being injury prone to dissuade owners from keeping him any longer.
Tyreke Evans has blossomed in to a legitimate scoring threat. That is a factor that favors Martin and his return. Kevin will resume his role as being the Kings’ primary offensive weapon, but Tyreke will help ease the pressure on Martin.
I expect Martin to average about 25 PPG, 2.5 3PPG, 4 RPG, 2.5 APG, 42 FG%, 86 FT%, 1.5 SPG, 0.2 BPG, and 2 TO over the season. If I could trade someone who is averaging 75% of those numbers for him, I would definitely pull the trigger.
We believe Kevin Martin is the best ‘injured player’ to target for acquisition at this time. He is about 3 weeks from making it back and was tearing it up before his injury, averaging around 30ppg.
Owners who have held onto him may have forgotten what a force he was and may also be worried that the breakouts of Tyreke Evans and Jason Thompson may impact Martin’s production.
We are not worried at all about other players on the Kings having a negative impact on Kevin Martin. In fact, it is the other way around, owners of Evans and Thompson are the one’s who should be worried. Kevin Martin is clearly the number one scoring option on the team and we expect it to return to that state upon his return. (See the BleacherCreatureRotoTalk Fantasy Basketball Strategy Article: Are Bad Teams Breading Grounds for Fantasy Basketball Breakout Players?)
Lastly, Martin’s injury was to his left wrist – that is his non-shooting hand so we do not expect there to be a problem with his shot when he makes it back. Also, since it was an arm injury he was most likely able to retain some of his conditioning and has also probably been able to shoot with his good hand.
The player I would recommend trying to acquire now is Blake Griffin of the Los Angeles Clippers. The best case scenario will see Griffin return a month later than his original target date. His owner’s frustration level has increase while the excite surrounding drafting the league’s #1 pick was waned making this a good time to buy low.
Once he is able to go, Griffin will take some time to get his legs under him, but should be a nice source for points and rebounds for the second half of the year.
Kevin Martin – Sacramento Kings: If I had to target one injured player right now, I’d go after a K-Mart special. You should be able to get him for 60 cents on the dollar, and if you are able to acquire Martin on the cheap – you’ll have a scoring machine locked and loaded for the second half of the season. Martin underwent wrist surgery on November 9th and team doctors initially expected him to miss six-to-eight weeks. Fortunately, recent x-rays reveled that the injury is healing as expected. Thus, we can expect K-Mart back in early January. Once he returns to action, and assuming he can stay healthy, expect Kevin to provide plenty of points, three’s, some steals, and solid FT%. Over the Kings first five
games this season, before he was injured, he was averaging over 30 points and 5 boards. Buy low while you still can…
Tyrus Thomas
It depends on your team needs, but one injured player I’ve certainly had my eye on is Bulls forward Tyrus Thomas. He’s enigmatic and inconsistent, but the talent is there to make a serious fantasy impact. Thomas fractured his left forearm early in November. The injury was originally expected to keep Thomas out for 4-6 weeks, and you can bet his owner is tired of having Thomas ride his bench. The Chicago Tribune reported on Saturday that doctors have cleared him to begin contact activities next weekend and have removed the splint from his surgically-repaired left forearm. While he’s still a few weeks away, that’s progress and your window of opportunity is closing.
Thomas owners are also likely concerned about his production earlier this year – just 8.3 points, 1.8 blocks, 0.8 steals and 5.3 boards on 44% FGs and 56% FTs isn’t exactly what they were hoping for. It’s a step back from last season, but keep in mind that was just a four-game sample size. Also recall what a fantasy stud Thomas was down the stretch last year. After the All-Star break Tyrus put up a very useful 13 points, 2.1 blocks, 1.2 steals and 7.1 boards on a more palatable 47% FGs and 78% FTs. He was even better than that for stretches in February, March and April.
The upside doesn’t stop there, though. Earlier this month Yahoo!’s Adrian Wojnarowski, reported the Bulls are in “serious discussions” to swap Thomas for Al Harrington. That would likely prove a major upgrade for Thomas’ value. In trading for him the Knicks would be showing some obvious fondness for his game, which would likely lead to increased minutes. Thomas can get up and down the floor, and in such a wide-open system he could thrive on both ends (statistically, at least). The Knicks push the ball, averaging just about 96 possessions per game, fifth in the NBA. Chicago, on the other hand, plays it slower with just 92 possessions a night, 21st in the league. The faster the pace, the more fantasy numbers to be had.
I’m looking to buy on a commodity with this kind of upside while the price is likely at a season low.
While I’d love to pick up someone like Danny Granger on the cheap, I don’t think anyone is selling on him right now, so my vote for the injured player who I’d most try to acquire is Andris Biedrins. It’s not that Biedrins is any better than say Kevin Martin or Jameer Nelson (although there is nothing wrong with grabbing a center at this point in the season), rather it is that Biedrins owners must be so frustrated with him and his injury at this point that you can likely get him at the best discount right now. It was originally reported that Biedrins had a back/groin injury and was day-to-day. Then it came out that he was going to miss a week in late November, then another week, and than it finally came out that he had osteitis pubis and would miss a total of 4 to 6 weeks. He’s now traveling with the team but has no official return date set. With the piecemeal way information has been released by the team, his fantasy owners (and I count myself among them) are clearly frustrated. However, he’s currently in week 5 of that 4-6 week window and Don Nelson recently said that he expects Biedrins to return before Ronny Turiaf. If you happen to be a former Greg Oden owner looking for someone to replace him, then Biedrins is definitely someone to target.
Tags: Andris Biedrins, Blake Griffin, Kevin Martin, Tyrus Thomas
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