Fantasy Basketball Roundtable: Trade Talk

Categorized as: Author: Nels, Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Roundtable
Posted on: January 28th, 2010

This time around the topic is: Which big name player is most likely to get traded and how will that affect his fantasy value for the rest of the season?

Joining Me at the Fantasy Hoops Roundtable:

- Tommy Beer, HoopsWorld
- Ryan Lester, Lester’s Legends
- Erik Ong, Points in the Paint

Ryan Lester, Lester’s Legends: The player I feel is most likely to get dealt is Golden State’s Monta Ellis. He’s due $44 million over the next four years and, despite his lofty numbers, isn’t a franchise player. He’s dealt with injuries and has clashed with the team.

Plus, he isn’t a great fit with Rookie Stephen Curry. With the two of them on the court at the same time, it’s hard to stop anybody, especially guards with size. While does have plenty of talent, he’s the most likely to land something the Warriors truly need…a true point guard or a big man.

As far as his value goes if he’s dealt, I’m afraid he’s a system player and if he is shipped, his number will take a big hit. It’s unlikely he’d be able to throw up 20+ shot a night in a new landing spot. Plus, that destination would likely have more pieces in place, which would again limit his fantasy value.

The only thing that could keep him in place is his contract. Teams may not be willing to take on his contract, especially with the 2010 free agents about to hit.

Erik Ong, Points in the Paint: Amar’e Stoudemire – This is already churning and we can hear the mumblings and grumblings about it as early as now. The Suns do not want to pay the luxury tax that his salary will put them in. He will go. The question is “where?” At first impression, the idea is that he will suffer in terms of no longer being able to play with a top caliber passing point guard in Steve Nash, but then again he has been lax and lackluster as far as fantasy is concerned this season as it is. The Phoenix system is primed to evolve around working without him and his heart and/or motivation has already left the franchise as early as the start of the season. I believe the bottom line will all about where he is headed. If he winds up in another playoff contender then his production and subsequently his value should improve – slightly. If he does not, then we should probably see more of a similar pace from him and his value should remain roughly the same. My opinion is that his move will be a good one as far as he’s concerned.

Tommy Beer, HoopsWorld: I think the player most likely to get traded is Antawn Jamison. I think there is a better than 50% chance that Jamison gets dealt to the Cavs by February’s trade deadline (for Zydrunas Ilgauskas, J.J. Hickson, and a pick). From a reality standpoint, I think it is a great move for Cleveland. From a fantasy perspective, I think it hurts Jamison’s roto value.

In Cleveland, the Cavs play at a slower pace than Flip Saunders offense. Moreover, Jamison will defer to LeBron, and sometime to Shaq. I think Antawn’s shot attempts will decrease, which is never a good thing. In addition, the Cavs are one of the league’s best rebounding teams. That means there will be fewer boards for Jamison to corral. However, one positive may be a bump up in three-pointers and FG%, as Jamison will
benefit from teams collapsing on LeBron and James kicking it out to an open Antawn.

Patrick, Give Me The Rock: Amar’e Stoudemire: The trade rumors are swirling like a hurricane around Amar’e right now, with Golden State, Minnesota and Cleveland reportedly all interested in the Suns big man. This much we know: Amar’e – who can opt out of his contract this summer – wants to play with a contender and wouldn’t mind staying with the Suns. However, the notorious cheapskate Suns could save $10 million or more by trading Stoudemire and we have seen what motivates team owner Robert Sarver in the past.

So while it’s nowhere hear a done deal, the Cavs make a lot of sense as a trade partner for the Suns and Stoudemire, especially as the team looks to make a serious playoff run and pulls out all the stops to keep LeBron this summer. However, Cleveland would definitely want a long term commitment from Amar’e since they would have to give up some value to get him.

From a fantasy perspective, you have to be worried about Amar’e going from the run and gun Suns and Steve Nash to the LeBron centric Cavs. Add in the fact that Amar’e and Shaq didn’t work well together on the court back in Phoenix and it seems like a fantasy downgrade for him. Can Stoudemire get 14-15 shots per game on the Cavs (which he’ll need to average 20+ points per game)? Based on the way the Cavs have played to this point in the season, it’s possible, but unlikely. The entire Cavs frontcourt has averaged about 29 shots per game, with Anderson Varejao getting 6.5, Shaq 8.5 and Zydrunas Ilgauskas 6.8. So Amar’e would basically have to steal 50% or more of the Suns frontcourt shots to maintain his scoring average this year. Yes, the Cavs could alter their offensive to involve Amar’e a little more down low than they do, say, Varejao, but you have to assume that going from the team with the third largest pace factor this season to the team with the third lowest pace factor will have some effect on his fantasy game.

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And since we’re a little short on the old roundtable today, here’s a post from HoopsWorld’s Eric Pincus looking at trades and their monetary impact to determine who will be trading who for who. I’m sure I needed a whom in there somewhere. Oh well.

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Tags: Amare Stoudemire, Antawn Jamison, Fantasy Basketball Roundtable, Monta Ellis