Give Me The Rock
this is fantasy basketball
This time around the topic is: Which big name player is most likely to get traded and how will that affect his fantasy value for the rest of the season?
Joining Me at the Fantasy Hoops Roundtable:
- Tommy Beer, HoopsWorld
- Ryan Lester, Lester’s Legends
- Erik Ong, Points in the Paint
Ryan Lester, Lester’s Legends: The player I feel is most likely to get dealt is Golden State’s Monta Ellis. He’s due $44 million over the next four years and, despite his lofty numbers, isn’t a franchise player. He’s dealt with injuries and has clashed with the team.
Plus, he isn’t a great fit with Rookie Stephen Curry. With the two of them on the court at the same time, it’s hard to stop anybody, especially guards with size. While does have plenty of talent, he’s the most likely to land something the Warriors truly need…a true point guard or a big man.
As far as his value goes if he’s dealt, I’m afraid he’s a system player and if he is shipped, his number will take a big hit. It’s unlikely he’d be able to throw up 20+ shot a night in a new landing spot. Plus, that destination would likely have more pieces in place, which would again limit his fantasy value.
The only thing that could keep him in place is his contract. Teams may not be willing to take on his contract, especially with the 2010 free agents about to hit.
Erik Ong, Points in the Paint: Amar’e Stoudemire – This is already churning and we can hear the mumblings and grumblings about it as early as now. The Suns do not want to pay the luxury tax that his salary will put them in. He will go. The question is “where?” At first impression, the idea is that he will suffer in terms of no longer being able to play with a top caliber passing point guard in Steve Nash, but then again he has been lax and lackluster as far as fantasy is concerned this season as it is. The Phoenix system is primed to evolve around working without him and his heart and/or motivation has already left the franchise as early as the start of the season. I believe the bottom line will all about where he is headed. If he winds up in another playoff contender then his production and subsequently his value should improve – slightly. If he does not, then we should probably see more of a similar pace from him and his value should remain roughly the same. My opinion is that his move will be a good one as far as he’s concerned.
Tommy Beer, HoopsWorld: I think the player most likely to get traded is Antawn Jamison. I think there is a better than 50% chance that Jamison gets dealt to the Cavs by February’s trade deadline (for Zydrunas Ilgauskas, J.J. Hickson, and a pick). From a reality standpoint, I think it is a great move for Cleveland. From a fantasy perspective, I think it hurts Jamison’s roto value.
In Cleveland, the Cavs play at a slower pace than Flip Saunders offense. Moreover, Jamison will defer to LeBron, and sometime to Shaq. I think Antawn’s shot attempts will decrease, which is never a good thing. In addition, the Cavs are one of the league’s best rebounding teams. That means there will be fewer boards for Jamison to corral. However, one positive may be a bump up in three-pointers and FG%, as Jamison will
benefit from teams collapsing on LeBron and James kicking it out to an open Antawn.
Patrick, Give Me The Rock: Amar’e Stoudemire: The trade rumors are swirling like a hurricane around Amar’e right now, with Golden State, Minnesota and Cleveland reportedly all interested in the Suns big man. This much we know: Amar’e – who can opt out of his contract this summer – wants to play with a contender and wouldn’t mind staying with the Suns. However, the notorious cheapskate Suns could save $10 million or more by trading Stoudemire and we have seen what motivates team owner Robert Sarver in the past.
So while it’s nowhere hear a done deal, the Cavs make a lot of sense as a trade partner for the Suns and Stoudemire, especially as the team looks to make a serious playoff run and pulls out all the stops to keep LeBron this summer. However, Cleveland would definitely want a long term commitment from Amar’e since they would have to give up some value to get him.
From a fantasy perspective, you have to be worried about Amar’e going from the run and gun Suns and Steve Nash to the LeBron centric Cavs. Add in the fact that Amar’e and Shaq didn’t work well together on the court back in Phoenix and it seems like a fantasy downgrade for him. Can Stoudemire get 14-15 shots per game on the Cavs (which he’ll need to average 20+ points per game)? Based on the way the Cavs have played to this point in the season, it’s possible, but unlikely. The entire Cavs frontcourt has averaged about 29 shots per game, with Anderson Varejao getting 6.5, Shaq 8.5 and Zydrunas Ilgauskas 6.8. So Amar’e would basically have to steal 50% or more of the Suns frontcourt shots to maintain his scoring average this year. Yes, the Cavs could alter their offensive to involve Amar’e a little more down low than they do, say, Varejao, but you have to assume that going from the team with the third largest pace factor this season to the team with the third lowest pace factor will have some effect on his fantasy game.
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And since we’re a little short on the old roundtable today, here’s a post from HoopsWorld’s Eric Pincus looking at trades and their monetary impact to determine who will be trading who for who. I’m sure I needed a whom in there somewhere. Oh well.
Tags: Amare Stoudemire, Antawn Jamison, Fantasy Basketball Roundtable, Monta Ellis
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January 28th, 2010 at 12:03 pm
i know nels is on top of this. But i hear the bulls are moving hinrich or salmons before the dealine. Not a huge move, but id grab either once theyre seperated.
how bad to the bulls look for not making that kobe trade a few years back? Talks were serious, with the trade breaking down over luol deng!!! WOW
January 28th, 2010 at 12:43 pm
Can I ask for a little fantasy advise? What do you guys think bout trading tyreke evans + (either lou williams or eric gordon) for Deron Williams? I feel like I got some studs and some tweeners. I'm thinking I should package some 2-for-1 combo of them to upgrade and pick up a few more people from the wire. 10 team/14 player league and I'd like to pick up one/some of Goran, Hienrich, Nate Rob, Jeff Green, George Hill, Jermaine O'neal-the list goes on.
My team right now is:
Tyreke Evans
Andre Iguodala
Kevin Martin
LeBron James
Carlos Boozer
Carmello Anthony
Channing Frye
Sam Dalembert
Robin Lopez
Eric Gordon
Andres Biedrins
Louis Williams
Mike Dunleavy Jr
Paul Milsap
January 28th, 2010 at 12:44 pm
Also looking to position for the playoffs and get stars with 4/4/4 in playoff weeks (wk 21, 22, 23)
January 28th, 2010 at 1:09 pm
We'll let Nels reminisce about the Kobe thing, but yeah, I heard a lot of grumblings a couple weeks ago about Hinrich being moved. Now that's died down and bit and Salmons name is popping up, likely because he has an easier contract to move.
January 28th, 2010 at 1:25 pm
I like the Evans/Low Williams trade for Deron a lot if you can get that done, but even the Evans/Gordon trade is good for your team. I definitely like to be the person getting the best player in the trade and you're clearly going to be doing that if you can get one of those trades done.
The Jazz play one more game during those three weeks you mentioned than the Kings if I'm not mistaken, so you're gains there will be minimal. But every little bit counts in the end. The Rockets, Spurs and Wizards are the three teams with 4/4/4 during those weeks.
January 28th, 2010 at 2:09 pm
I was opposed to the Kobe trade at the time just because it was so distracting to the team, but yeah, I would have been happy if they'd just made the trade.
And you are astute in noticing the trade rumors about both Hinrich and Salmons. Oddly enough, I just read about a potential deal where the Bulls trade Hinrich for the Lakers expiring contracts.
January 28th, 2010 at 2:10 pm
Agreed. Evans/Gordon seems like a bit much, so definitely try the other one before going higher… if it were a keeper league, I'd consider hanging on to both Evans and Gordon, but if you're trying to plan for a playoff run this year, DW is a good upgrade.
January 28th, 2010 at 3:03 pm
Thanks for the feedback guys. Not a keeper league. i'll offer the lou flavor and see if he bites.
Now I just need Kevin Martin to pull his head out of ass, Boozer to recover from injury (and then be traded) and I'll be set!
January 29th, 2010 at 5:27 am
he has a small ball team but says he wants bigs instead. any suggestions?
January 29th, 2010 at 6:47 am
Um… ask him why he wants to change his small ball team into a big ball team?
January 29th, 2010 at 8:06 am
I'd be willing to throw in any one of your bigs with the exception of Boozer in with Evans to try and get Deron Williams. Not sure who your trade partner would particularly covet, although I'd probably to move Robin Lopez or Channing Frye first, since it appears like they might be in a time sharing role for the rest of the season.
January 29th, 2010 at 4:06 pm
I’d be willing to throw in any one of your bigs with the exception of Boozer in with Evans to try and get Deron Williams. Not sure who your trade partner would particularly covet, although I’d probably to move Robin Lopez or Channing Frye first, since it appears like they might be in a time sharing role for the rest of the season.