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Gilbert Arenas, traded for David Lee!

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Categorized as: Author: Erik, Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Strategy, GMTR Leagues
Posted on: March 3rd, 2010

In a recent transaction, Gilbert Arenas, who is already suspended for the remainder of the season, was sent off and traded for David Lee.

gilbert-arenas

When I found the news in my inbox about the transaction taking place, I was completely dumbfounded, utterly and completely. I took a moment to gather up my composure and studied what just transpired.

Why would Nels, who owned David Lee, trade away his FG%-generator for a definite non-factor. Oh yes, did forget to mention that the transaction did not occur in real life, but just in one of GMTR’s readers leagues? My bad.

Anyway, my first thought that this was some sort of “social experiment” Nels was conducting about how active managers are at vetoing “unfair” trades late into the fantasy season, and was going to write about it here. That initial thought was quickly washed down the drain along with my being impressed with Nels’ dabblings as a social scientist when I took a look at which GMTR league the deal was about to take place. It was in GMTR’s first-season KEEPER LEAGUE!

The rules of our keeper league are very straight forward. Each manager is allowed to keep three players on their team as long as those players were not drafted in the first three rounds of the fantasy draft. Got it? Simple, huh? Not really. Well at least as far as I am concerned. I am in two keeper leagues this season and both of them are in their maiden seasons. It’s a new experience for me and it’s something that’s giving me some difficulty to digest. Keeper strategy is more long-term oriented than anything I’ve undertaken before. This trade snapped me into a more lucid state and got me thinking about who I want to keep and who are the viable keepers in the league.

Before I get into that let’s breakdown the trade that was. Nels’ team is dead last in the keeper league and I figure he wanted to nab Arenas as a potential keeper candidate. Since his level of fantasy genius is unparalleled, well maybe paralleled by at least by me and Patrick, I decided to interview Nels and pick at his fantasy basketball machinations. And by interview, I really mean sending him an email asking “What were you thinking?”

Here’s his reply:

I’d like some advice on who I should keep on my team! Haha!

So, first off, I’m in last place in the Dynasty league. Just to make that clear, since it is an important piece of the trade. I’m not quite sure how that happened, but I think it had something to do with picking Blake Griffin in the 5th round so I could make sure to get him as a keeper. My 2nd and 3rd round picks were Andre Iguodala and David Lee, so that worked out, but I also have Brandon Roy and Eric Gordon who’ve both underperformed for where I took them in addition to missing stretches this season.

Really, though, my big mistake was not building a team that dominated categories. As you can see from the 4 guys above (Griffin obviously doesn’t count), my team is a all over the place in terms of categories. So, yes, I’m in last place. Someone has to be.

And as such, I decided to tank the season and send David Lee (3rd round pick, so not a keeper) for Gilbert Arenas (4th round pick, so keeper!). My rationale was that David Lee isn’t doing anything for me. I mean, yeah he’s doing something, but it’s not like his numbers are going to overcome the fact that after Griffin, I took Thaddeus Young, Spencer Hawes, Ronnie Brewer, and Rodney Stuckey (and the fact that the guys I picked after them and the guys I picked up out of the Free Agent pool have actually outplayed them).

The trade just basically expanded my options for my keepers. Since I’m obviously not going to stick with Young, Brewer, or Stuckey (Hawes is not even on my team any more), I’m left with Eric Gordon (96th on the year in 9 cat leagues), Blake Griffin (DNP), Luol Deng (58), and Marc Gasol (a surprise 30 – and a definite keeper). Since we keep 3 players, you can see it’s not the best set of players to choose from. I mean, do I keep Gordon and hope that he becomes the Top 50-60 player I thought he’d be? Do I keep Griffin and hope he actually plays? Will I want to keep Deng when the Bulls are obviously trying to add someone ahead of him in the scoring order?

Now, instead of just losing Lee at the end of the season, I at least have Arenas to consider. Yes, he’s probably just as risky as those other options, but I could also try to trade him to someone with a higher risk tolerance for a keeper player that I would find more promising than the options I have otherwise. I’m thinking something like another big man to compliment Marc Gasol and cement my direction towards a Big Ball team for next year. If I can do that, then I can avoid the conflicted type of team that I had this year and hopefully come out knowing I can win 5 categories every week instead of wondering which categories I’d be able to compete in on a week-to-week basis.

Understand Nels’ move, completely. Here are several reasons why I respectfully disagree with going for Gilbert Arenas as a keeper.

  1. He is old.
  2. He is an injury risk.
  3. He might go to jail, not pass go, not collect $200.
  4. Nels could have gotten a better keeper option than Arenas. If I knew he was pimping David, I would have offered some of my young studs to be able to utilize Lee’s services in the fantasy playoffs.

Marc Gasol is an excellent keeper pick for Nels. I would Eric Gordon another shot next season. We all know that this kid has a lot more potential to grow into. I’m just not 100% confident that he will be worth selecting as a keeper. I mean if you timed it right, you could probably nab him again in next season’s draft. Given Nels’ slim pickings, Gordon isn’t too bad of a gamble, relatively speaking of course. Blake Griffin still is promising, but I can understand if Nels is afraid of getting odenized by Blake next season.

Onwards with keeper leagues and keepers… As for my team, I was last to pick in the draft and decided to pick three of the oldest, most fantasy-functional players I could find. I went Nash-bounce-Kidd, then grabbed Ray Allen in the third round. I have a lock on two keeper prospects. They are Rajon Rondo (who I picked in the 4th round) and Andrea Bargnani (5th round). The third and final keeper slot is a three-way battle between three big men.

  1. Carlos Boozer - He was drafted in the seventh round by another team, but I acquired via a trade for my sixth round pick, Anthony Randolph. Boozer is not exactly young, but this season he gave us all a reminder why he was once a second-round draft lock.
  2. Joakim Noah – I drafted him in the seventh round and he was just awesome for most of the season. He’s hurting right now, dealing with plantar fasciitis, but his upside for the future is huge.
  3. Tyrus Thomas – I didn’t draft him. He was drafted in the seventh round by another team and dropped into the FA pool during his absence due to injury. I was able to snipe him off the pool, just before he got traded to the Charlotte Bobcats. He’s been looking good so far in his new team, but new Bobcats owner Michael Jordan is scaring me.

If you were me, who would you choose as your third keeper for next season?

Can we keep him

Picking keepers is about striking a balance between long-term potential and already inherent productivity.

Here are some strong to just okay keeper candidates and the rounds they were picked:

Round 4

Round 5

Round 6

Round 7

Round 8

  • Jason Thompson – It was slim pickings in this round.

Round 9

Round 10

Round 11

Round 12

Round 13

As far as undrafted players are concerned, I feel Marcus Thornton of the New Orleans Hornets is making a strong case a potential keeper. The same goes for Taj Gibson of the Chicago Bulls, but he’s nowhere near the level of potential to explode next season as Thornton is.

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  • http://nelswadycki.com nelswadycki

    Boozer seems like a no-brainer choice to me, but I'll let others chime in as well… Since, obviously any fantasy advice I give will forever be tainted by Lee for Arenas.

  • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

    I think you should keep Tayshaun Prince personally…

    I agree with Nels that Boozer is the obvious (although boring) choice, but you'll have to wait to see where he ends up to get the full idea of his value next season. I think you can drop Thomas out of the discussion. He's a little too hit or miss for next season to be keepable in my opinion. Noah is an interesting option. I didn't realize he was all the way up 40 on our per game player rater. I think the decision will depend on what happens this offseason with both the Bulls and Boozer.

    Arenas is the super risky keeper for next season, although Nels will probably have the last laugh when he's scoring 30 points a game for a horrible Wizards team. Considering the offer that was sent to me for Blatche, I agree that Nels could have gotten more for Lee. But based the defense of the trade, it seems that he accomplished what he needed to do. Will Arenas be a top 3 round pick next year? I'd guess in more leagues than not, he is.

  • DowJones

    In Nels' defense, I actually offered him Arenas for Lee, now I just gotta hope that CP3 comes back in time for playoffs!!!!!!!

  • DowJones

    Also, what's your opinion of Bierdrins? This is definitely a bad season for him but he's been such a consistent performer the past 3/4 seasons that it might warrant keeping him as a keeper as there's sooo so so much upside

  • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

    Well, Biedrins couldn't have any worse of a year than the one he's going through now. There is a good chance he bounces back next season, although based on what I've read, he lacks serious commitment to the game and hasn't really attempted to improve since he entered the league, especially in regard to his atrocious shooting.

    Part of what makes a good keeper is the fact that you get to keep him for less than what he's actually worth (for example, you can keep a guy who was drafted in the 8th round this season who would be a 2nd round pick next season). However, Biedrins is the opposite for that. You'll likely be able to get him in the later rounds next season based on his horrible 09-10.

    In short, throw him to the wolves.

  • http://nelswadycki.com nelswadycki

    And I would suggest that it's that kind of thinking that build championship teams. When you say something like “If I'd know he was shopping that person” I'd argue you've already lost the trading game. I would say that if you make the right offer, a manager would be willing to part with any player on their team.

    Of course, my acceptance of the offer may have been premature… I probably should have tried offering Lee (or other pieces of my team) to other people who wanted to try to win, but this is my first time ever in a keeper league, so I wasn't prepared to think on the next level. You can allow Erik the same excuse in not making me an offer for David Lee.

  • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

    Biedrins is on my injury prone list. He's the C version of Kevin Martin, in my book. I would be very very wary of keeping him. If there are less than viable keeper alternatives on your roster, then that's the only time I would decide to keep him.

  • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

    Enlighten me on what you see in Tayshaun, that I apparently do not. Even IF the Bulls get “Boozed up”, it is Taj who will likely take the huge hit in value – well less than Noah at least.

  • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

    Would you have taken Tyrus or Noah (Bull!) for Lee?

  • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

    Do you intend to make Blatche one of your keepers, Patrick? The fantasy basketball world (or at least the portion in keeper leagues) want to know…

  • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

    Tayshaun 4 lyfe.

    I was just joking about him actually, I just picked the guy on your roster who I thought would make the worst keeper.

    My third keeper will probably come down to Mo Williams or Blatche. I wouldn't be opposed to moving Blatche in my push for a championship, but he's playing so damn good right now that any trade good enough to get to hit the accept button would also get vetoed by the league. Which is exactly what just happened.

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  • http://nelswadycki.com nelswadycki

    Doubtful. While Gil is a risk, he has a lot more potential reward than I see for either Tyrus or Noah.

  • DowJones

    Hey guys, need some advice for my other keeper league, it's year 2 and i get to retain the services of 4 out of the five top players i currently have: Amare, Big Al, Nene, Yao (who i recently traded for after being knocked out of the playoff race) and/or Eric Gordon, everyone else I have is scrubs so really no difference.

    Any suggestions? I am tempted to go big big ball with (amare/big Al/Nene/Yao) but that's a LOT of injury risks…heh

  • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

    What does the league start for positions? 10 starters with 2 centers?

    Well, you are looking at big injury risks no matter how you cut it if you plan on keeping Yao. But I agree with your take on the keepers. Yao, Amare and Jefferson seem like the no brainers, despite the injury concerns (and you can always flip someone like Jefferson at the start of the season if you are really worried about your teams health). So it comes down to Nene or Gordon. And while I like Gordon, Nene has actually been the best of the all the players you mentioned this season (according to our player rater). So, I'd probably go big as well and then you can use your draft to fill up on guards. The shooting guard/small forward position is typically the spot that goes deepest in drafts anyway. There should be plenty available for you to choose from.

  • Anonymous

    Hey guys, need some advice for my other keeper league, it’s year 2 and i get to retain the services of 4 out of the five top players i currently have: Amare, Big Al, Nene, Yao (who i recently traded for after being knocked out of the playoff race) and/or Eric Gordon, everyone else I have is scrubs so really no difference.

    Any suggestions? I am tempted to go big big ball with (amare/big Al/Nene/Yao) but that’s a LOT of injury risks…heh

  • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

    What does the league start for positions? 10 starters with 2 centers?

    Well, you are looking at big injury risks no matter how you cut it if you plan on keeping Yao. But I agree with your take on the keepers. Yao, Amare and Jefferson seem like the no brainers, despite the injury concerns (and you can always flip someone like Jefferson at the start of the season if you are really worried about your teams health). So it comes down to Nene or Gordon. And while I like Gordon, Nene has actually been the best of the all the players you mentioned this season (according to our player rater). So, I’d probably go big as well and then you can use your draft to fill up on guards. The shooting guard/small forward position is typically the spot that goes deepest in drafts anyway. There should be plenty available for you to choose from.