Gilbert Arenas, traded for David Lee!

Categorized as: Author: Erik, Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Strategy, GMTR Leagues
Posted on: March 3rd, 2010

In a recent transaction, Gilbert Arenas, who is already suspended for the remainder of the season, was sent off and traded for David Lee.

When I found the news in my inbox about the transaction taking place, I was completely dumbfounded, utterly and completely. I took a moment to gather up my composure and studied what just transpired.

Why would Nels, who owned David Lee, trade away his FG%-generator for a definite non-factor. Oh yes, did forget to mention that the transaction did not occur in real life, but just in one of GMTR’s readers leagues? My bad.

Anyway, my first thought that this was some sort of “social experiment” Nels was conducting about how active managers are at vetoing “unfair” trades late into the fantasy season, and was going to write about it here. That initial thought was quickly washed down the drain along with my being impressed with Nels’ dabblings as a social scientist when I took a look at which GMTR league the deal was about to take place. It was in GMTR’s first-season KEEPER LEAGUE!

The rules of our keeper league are very straight forward. Each manager is allowed to keep three players on their team as long as those players were not drafted in the first three rounds of the fantasy draft. Got it? Simple, huh? Not really. Well at least as far as I am concerned. I am in two keeper leagues this season and both of them are in their maiden seasons. It’s a new experience for me and it’s something that’s giving me some difficulty to digest. Keeper strategy is more long-term oriented than anything I’ve undertaken before. This trade snapped me into a more lucid state and got me thinking about who I want to keep and who are the viable keepers in the league.

Before I get into that let’s breakdown the trade that was. Nels’ team is dead last in the keeper league and I figure he wanted to nab Arenas as a potential keeper candidate. Since his level of fantasy genius is unparalleled, well maybe paralleled by at least by me and Patrick, I decided to interview Nels and pick at his fantasy basketball machinations. And by interview, I really mean sending him an email asking “What were you thinking?”

Here’s his reply:

I’d like some advice on who I should keep on my team! Haha!

So, first off, I’m in last place in the Dynasty league. Just to make that clear, since it is an important piece of the trade. I’m not quite sure how that happened, but I think it had something to do with picking Blake Griffin in the 5th round so I could make sure to get him as a keeper. My 2nd and 3rd round picks were Andre Iguodala and David Lee, so that worked out, but I also have Brandon Roy and Eric Gordon who’ve both underperformed for where I took them in addition to missing stretches this season.

Really, though, my big mistake was not building a team that dominated categories. As you can see from the 4 guys above (Griffin obviously doesn’t count), my team is a all over the place in terms of categories. So, yes, I’m in last place. Someone has to be.

And as such, I decided to tank the season and send David Lee (3rd round pick, so not a keeper) for Gilbert Arenas (4th round pick, so keeper!). My rationale was that David Lee isn’t doing anything for me. I mean, yeah he’s doing something, but it’s not like his numbers are going to overcome the fact that after Griffin, I took Thaddeus Young, Spencer Hawes, Ronnie Brewer, and Rodney Stuckey (and the fact that the guys I picked after them and the guys I picked up out of the Free Agent pool have actually outplayed them).

The trade just basically expanded my options for my keepers. Since I’m obviously not going to stick with Young, Brewer, or Stuckey (Hawes is not even on my team any more), I’m left with Eric Gordon (96th on the year in 9 cat leagues), Blake Griffin (DNP), Luol Deng (58), and Marc Gasol (a surprise 30 – and a definite keeper). Since we keep 3 players, you can see it’s not the best set of players to choose from. I mean, do I keep Gordon and hope that he becomes the Top 50-60 player I thought he’d be? Do I keep Griffin and hope he actually plays? Will I want to keep Deng when the Bulls are obviously trying to add someone ahead of him in the scoring order?

Now, instead of just losing Lee at the end of the season, I at least have Arenas to consider. Yes, he’s probably just as risky as those other options, but I could also try to trade him to someone with a higher risk tolerance for a keeper player that I would find more promising than the options I have otherwise. I’m thinking something like another big man to compliment Marc Gasol and cement my direction towards a Big Ball team for next year. If I can do that, then I can avoid the conflicted type of team that I had this year and hopefully come out knowing I can win 5 categories every week instead of wondering which categories I’d be able to compete in on a week-to-week basis.

Understand Nels’ move, completely. Here are several reasons why I respectfully disagree with going for Gilbert Arenas as a keeper.

1. He is old.
2. He is an injury risk.
3. He might go to jail, not pass go, not collect $200.
4. Nels could have gotten a better keeper option than Arenas. If I knew he was pimping David, I would have offered some of my young studs to be able to utilize Lee’s services in the fantasy playoffs.

Marc Gasol is an excellent keeper pick for Nels. I would Eric Gordon another shot next season. We all know that this kid has a lot more potential to grow into. I’m just not 100% confident that he will be worth selecting as a keeper. I mean if you timed it right, you could probably nab him again in next season’s draft. Given Nels’ slim pickings, Gordon isn’t too bad of a gamble, relatively speaking of course. Blake Griffin still is promising, but I can understand if Nels is afraid of getting odenized by Blake next season.

Onwards with keeper leagues and keepers… As for my team, I was last to pick in the draft and decided to pick three of the oldest, most fantasy-functional players I could find. I went Nash-bounce-Kidd, then grabbed Ray Allen in the third round. I have a lock on two keeper prospects. They are Rajon Rondo (who I picked in the 4th round) and Andrea Bargnani (5th round). The third and final keeper slot is a three-way battle between three big men.

1. Carlos Boozer - He was drafted in the seventh round by another team, but I acquired via a trade for my sixth round pick, Anthony Randolph. Boozer is not exactly young, but this season he gave us all a reminder why he was once a second-round draft lock.
2. Joakim Noah – I drafted him in the seventh round and he was just awesome for most of the season. He’s hurting right now, dealing with plantar fasciitis, but his upside for the future is huge.
3. Tyrus Thomas – I didn’t draft him. He was drafted in the seventh round by another team and dropped into the FA pool during his absence due to injury. I was able to snipe him off the pool, just before he got traded to the Charlotte Bobcats. He’s been looking good so far in his new team, but new Bobcats owner Michael Jordan is scaring me.

If you were me, who would you choose as your third keeper for next season?

Picking keepers is about striking a balance between long-term potential and already inherent productivity.

Here are some strong to just okay keeper candidates and the rounds they were picked:

Round 4

• Josh Smith  - There are many reasons why Patrick is a fantasy basketball genius. This is just one of them.
• Monta Ellis
• Derrick Rose
• Rajon Rondo
• Al Horford
• O.J. Mayo
• Russell Westbrook
• Jameer Nelson – I think he still might be worth it.
• Gilbert Arenas – Well at least as far as Nels is concerned.
• Rudy Gay

Round 5

• Andrew Bynum – Scary, but probably worth it.
• Trevor Ariza – Kevin Martin is slowly dowsing his fantasy flame.
• Tony Parker
• Mo Williams

Round 6

• Antawn Jamison – IF LeBron leaves, guess who will inherit the Cavs. No-brain keeper here.
• Nene Hilario
• Stephen Jackson – The “Bobcats Renaissance” is slowly making me a believer
• Jeff Green – I know he was hugely disappointing this season, but he still has that long-term potential ahead of him.
• Paul Millsap – Carlos Boozer may not stay with the Jazz after this season.

Round 7

• Carlos Boozer
• Tyrus Thomas
• Zach Randolph
• John Salmons
• Joakim Noah
• Andre Miller – I’m on the fence about him.
• Emeka Okafor

Round 8

Round 9

• Michael Beasley – Fantastic!
• Kevin Love – Oh I wish I had him as a keeper option. Drool.
• Anthony Morrow – He might actually be the third component in the Ellis-Curry-future-of the-franchise mix.

Round 10

• Marc Gasol
• Andrew Bogut
• Chris Kaman – He’s old(ish), injury prone, but his production is worth keeping.
• Tyreke Evans – R.O.Y., well my prediction at least.
• Louis Williams – He’s underrated, but with Allen Iverson out of the picture I think he has a bright future ahead.

Round 11

• Brendan Haywood
• Brandon Jennings (?)
• Aaron Brooks
• Stephen Curry

Round 12

• Randy Foye
• Mike Miller
• Yao Ming – Yes he was drafted.

Round 13

• Corey Brewer
• Andray Blatche – It’s hard to believe how a player who was so dang inconsistent last season, is putting together an unfathomable string of solid games…

As far as undrafted players are concerned, I feel Marcus Thornton of the New Orleans Hornets is making a strong case a potential keeper. The same goes for Taj Gibson of the Chicago Bulls, but he’s nowhere near the level of potential to explode next season as Thornton is.

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Tags: Andrea Bargnani, Blake Griffin, Carlos Boozer, David Lee, eric gordon, Gilbert arenas, Joakim Noah, Marc Gasol, Rajon Rondo