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Comp It: The Most Over and Undervalued Players in the League

Author Icon for Patrick

Categorized as: Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Strategy
Posted on: March 24th, 2010

What’s in a name? Well, if we are talking about fantasy sports, then it’s a lot. Name recognition is why Rasheed Wallace and Mike Bibby are still owned in three-quarters of leagues out there. Change Bibby’s name to Steve Blake and those mediocre stats don’t sound quite as good I bet.

Don’t believe me? Well, using some statistical calculations that would be too boring to describe, I calculated a list of similar players (or comps) for every player in the league based on the nine common stat categories used in fantasy basketball. Note that these comparisons are based on the year-to-date per game stats which were pulled a few days ago, so they are ever so slightly outdated if you were inclined to check.

Each player combination received a score on a scale of 0 to 100, where 100 meant they were a perfect match (completely identical stats) and a 0 meant they perfectly unmatched (think LeBron James compared to Mike James). The higher the score, the more similar a pair of players are statistically, at least in the stats that matter for fantasy basketball.

So, after all that work, here are some of the interesting and slightly disturbing comps through this point in the season; with an eye on guys who are either over or undervalued based on what percentage of leagues they are currently owned in.

Rank = Current Rank on the GMTR player rater
% Own = % Ownership in Yahoo Leagues
Hopefully the rest of the stats are self-explanatory

Mike Bibby as the Starting Point Guard Putting Up Backup Stats

Rank Player Min PTS REB AST STL BLK 3M TO FG% FT% % Own
137 Mike Bibby 27.7 9.0 2.3 4.1 0.9 0.0 1.5 1.2 41% 86% 73%
176 Steve Blake 26.6 7.1 2.4 4.4 0.7 0.1 1.5 1.4 40% 75% 13%

86.2% match

The Bibby fans/owners might not want to hear this, but these two guys are actually one of the closest – if not THE closest – match of any player combination in the league. Yes, Bibby has been better overall than Blake, but not to the point where he should be owned in 73% of leagues. Examine the stats and they are almost identical to each other, with the exception that Bibby has averaged two more points a game and is a better free throw shooter than Blake. The Hawks have Bibby under contract for two more years and based on the career track he’s taking, you have to wonder if he’s actually going to make it to 2012.

Trail Blazers Hawks Basketball

***

Ben Gordon as the Underachieving Guard Who Can’t Shoot and Doesn’t Play Defense

Rank Player Min PTS REB AST STL BLK 3M TO FG% FT% % Own
184 Ben Gordon 27.7 13.4 1.9 2.3 0.7 0.1 1.1 1.9 42% 84% 75%
198 Randy Foye 24.0 10.0 1.8 3.4 0.5 0.2 0.8 1.4 42% 88% 44%

82.4% match

Gordon’s most similar player for fantasy purposes is a guy who was a disappointment himself not too long ago (or maybe he still is depending on your expectations for Foye). But even as one of the biggest free agent busts of the year, Gordon is still having a slightly better year and is a better shooter than his doppelganger, although he’s also averaging four more minutes a game.

Anthony Tolliver as the Big Man with the Soft Touch

Rank Player Min PTS REB AST STL BLK 3M TO FG% FT% % Own
128 Charlie Villanueva 24.4 12.1 4.9 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.1 44% 81% 76%
132 Anthony Tolliver 28.4 10.1 5.9 1.7 0.7 0.6 1.1 0.9 42% 78% 35%

84.4% match

Well, Tolliver was owned in 25% of leagues just a couple days ago, so at least he’s headed in the right direction. But those ownership percentages should be flipped now that Tolliver is starting and averaging 40 minutes a game while Charlie V is hovering closer to 20.

Rasheed Wallace as the Big Boned Shooting Guard

Rank Player Min PTS REB AST STL BLK 3M TO FG% FT% % Own
122 Rasheed Wallace 23.0 9.4 4.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 1.1 0.8 41% 81% 75%
153 Brandon Rush 29.6 9.1 4.3 1.3 0.7 0.8 1.5 1.1 41% 63% 38%

83.5% match

It’s not surprising that Wallace’s most similar player is a swingman since he’s still hitting over a three a game, but he can barely averaging four rebounds. Rush has been playing above his season averages in the month of March, while Wallace is struggling to get more than 20 minutes a game behind KG. In a deep league, at gunpoint, I’d rather have Rush and a shot at some double-digit scoring numbers.

Andris Biedrins as the New Erick Dampier

Rank Player Min PTS REB AST STL BLK 3M TO FG% FT% % Own
144 Andris Biedrins 23.2 5.0 7.8 1.8 0.6 1.3 0.0 1.0 59% 16% 45%
147 Erick Dampier 25.3 6.9 8.1 0.5 0.3 1.5 0.0 1.2 65% 60% 13%

82.4% match

Nuff said.

Carlos Delfino as the Middle Class Man’s Hedo Turkoglu

Rank Player Min PTS REB AST STL BLK 3M TO FG% FT% % Own
118 Hedo Turkoglu 32.1 12.0 4.5 4.1 0.7 0.5 1.5 1.8 41% 78% 87%
111 Carlos Delfino 29.9 11.0 5.4 2.7 1.0 0.3 1.8 1.6 41% 79% 50%

81.9% Match

Take away a couple assists per game from Turkoglu and add a smidge of defense and you get Carlos Delfino. Is that worth a 27% bump in ownership for the Turk?

Bonus: Teammates who are their own Best Comps

In doing research for this post, I came across a couple teammates who have extremely similar fantasy games.

Rank Player Min PTS REB AST STL BLK 3M TO FG% FT% % Own
113 Jose Calderon 27.4 11.0 2.2 5.8 0.7 0.1 1.0 1.5 49% 81% 87%
112 Jarrett Jack 28.3 11.2 2.7 4.9 0.8 0.1 1.0 2.0 49% 84% 50%

84.6% match

Calderon recently won his starting job back from Jack, but it had to do more with the Raptors’ disastrous season than any sort of inspired play. In the four games since becoming a starter, Calderon has failed to score more than 9 points in a game and has shot 39% from the field, while Jack hasn’t faired any better, shooting 39% himself.

Rank Player Min PTS REB AST STL BLK 3M TO FG% FT% % Own
139 Jason Thompson 31.1 12.6 8.5 1.7 0.5 1.0 0.0 2.0 47% 71% 68%
148 Spencer Hawes 26.3 10.1 6.0 2.1 0.5 1.1 0.4 1.8 48% 70% 71%

81.9% match

So, which Kings’ big man has been more disappointing this season? If you said both, you win. Thompson and Hawes have been like the fantasy version of a seesaw – when one is playing well, the other looks horrible. Hawes is on a hot streak at the moment, and by hot I mean mildly lukewarm, while Thompson played 17 minutes and scored just 4 points with 2 boards in the Kings last game.

Bonus: The Why Are They Still Owned List?
Gilbert Arenas, owned in 37% of leagues.
Josh Howard, 37%
Anthony Randolph, 36%
Michael Redd, 34%
Blake Griffin, 27%
Allen Iverson, 27%
Greg Oden, 15%
Yao Ming, 6%

I guess you could say that one-third of fantasy leagues have been completely abandoned. Some of those are keeper leagues, but probably no more than the 6% who own Yao Ming.

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  • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

    Oh, and in case you were wondering, the two most different players in the league according to this analysis are Lebron James and Yakhouba Diawara, who has played 4 games for the Heat this season. They are a 3% match.

    If you limit the matches to fantasy relevant players, then Chauncey Billups and Erick Dampier are an 8% match, while Jason Kidd and Dwight Howard are at 9%.

  • adamwisniewski

    Nice post. I'm not in any public leagues, but I'm thinking of trying one next year just because I use Yahoo's month/week AVGs a lot to compare players, especially with minutes played, which must surely lead to some easy pickups during the season.

  • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

    I've only been in a few public leagues myself, but they seem like sort of a mixed bag. Some can be surprisingly competitive, while others die off pretty quickly.

    But they are nothing compared to the super competitive Readers' Leagues :)

  • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

    Oh, and in case you were wondering, the two most different players in the league according to this analysis are Lebron James and Yakhouba Diawara, who has played 4 games for the Heat this season. They are a 3% match.

    If you limit the matches to fantasy relevant players, then Chauncey Billups and Erick Dampier are an 8% match, while Jason Kidd and Dwight Howard are at 9%.

  • Anonymous

    Nice post. I’m not in any public leagues, but I’m thinking of trying one next year just because I use Yahoo’s month/week AVGs a lot to compare players, especially with minutes played, which must surely lead to some easy pickups during the season.

  • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

    I’ve only been in a few public leagues myself, but they seem like sort of a mixed bag. Some can be surprisingly competitive, while others die off pretty quickly.

    But they are nothing compared to the super competitive Readers’ Leagues :)

  • http://nelswadycki.com nelswadycki

    Yeah, I use the month/week averages exclusively to scout players. Then I go in an examine game logs once I've weeded them out a bit. I'm sure in public leagues there's tons of easy pick-ups (unless you happen to get into one of the competitive ones). I think a lot of people use them as mock draft leagues and then quit after Day 0. Of course, now that Yahoo has an actual mock draft platform, maybe there's less of that kind of thing.

  • http://nelswadycki.com nelswadycki

    Yeah, I use the month/week averages exclusively to scout players. Then I go in an examine game logs once I’ve weeded them out a bit. I’m sure in public leagues there’s tons of easy pick-ups (unless you happen to get into one of the competitive ones). I think a lot of people use them as mock draft leagues and then quit after Day 0. Of course, now that Yahoo has an actual mock draft platform, maybe there’s less of that kind of thing.

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