Give Me The Rock
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After years of wading around in a sea of mediocrity (or maybe it was just a sea of crap), the Pacers are FINALLY at the point where they can start to turn some of their most onerous contracts in to fresh, young meat. And in fact that is just what they did on August 11th, sending expiring contact and Jersey boy Troy Murphy to the Nets in a four-way trade that netted (get it?) them point guard (and Chris Paul buzz kill) Darren Collison from the Hornets. With T.J. Ford, Mike Dunleavy and Jeff Foster also in the last year of their contracts, the Pacers still have a number of moves to make this year.
In fact, the team has already been shopping TJ Ford around to anyone who will pick up the phone. Ford had trouble grasping the finer intricacies of Coach Jim O’Brien’s offense for two straight years, so he’s on the out with the team. They almost moved him in a deal for Raymond Felton, but it fell through when Michael Jordan got cold feet. They tried to package him as part of the four team deal for Collison, but there were no takers. At this point, if you’re interested in getting Ford for your pick-up team, Larry Bird wants to speak with you.
Even with the Collison trade, the Pacers are still stuck with a lot of dead weight that won’t officially come off the books until 2011:
The Depth Chart, aka the Mike Dunleavy Memorial List
PG Darren Collison, (T.J. Ford – likely traded), A.J. Price
SG Brandon Rush, Dahntay Jones, Lance Stephenson
SF Danny Granger, Paul George, Mike Dunleavy
PF Tyler Hansbrough, Josh McRoberts, Magnum Rolle
C Roy Hibbert, Jeff Foster, Solomon Jones
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Rule number 49 in my Official Rules to Live Your Life By states that it’s always good to be friendly with your local Russian billionaire; and that advice paid off handsomely for the Pacers. They were able to get a very good and very young point guard AND reduce their payroll this season thanks to the deep pockets of the Nets.
Darren Collison, who was a more than adequate Chris Paul replacement for part of last season, averaged an incredible 18.8 points, 9.1 assists, 1.4 steals and 1 three a game in 37 starts. In his rookie season. 9.1 assists. As a rookie. Got that? He did also average 4.1 turnovers in those starts, but he will learn to take better care of the ball as he matures.
So Collison becomes the starter on the Pacers and immediately gets a HUGE fantasy bump as a result of this trade. Plugging his starting stats into the GMTR player rater and he comes out ranked 20th in 8-cat leagues and 48th in 9-cat leagues. I’m hesitant to think he can keep up that same pace over the course of an entire season with a new set of teammates, but like my boy Matt Buser writes, you’ve got to pull the trigger on Collison in drafts before the likes of Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook, right? Isn’t Collison a top 60 player now? Even a worst-case scenario 20%-25% drop in his stats as a starter put his numbers in the 15 point, 7 assist range.
Oh, what to do about Danny Granger? He’s got first-round talent and a fifth-round body. There are only two players in the league who can give you better across-the-board stats on a per game basis than Granger. One is named LeBron and the other is some dude that Nels seems to be fond of. Again on a per game basis, Granger is an easy bet to average 25 points, 5 boards, 2.5 threes, and close to a block a game next season.
Unfortunately, he also missed 20 games last year with a foot injury. The fantasy world in general is pretty down on Granger given his injury history – the easiest way for you to kill your fantasy season is to have your first round pick get injured – but remember that his first three years in the league Granger played in 78, 82, and 80 games. While there probably are certain players who are more susceptible to injuries than the average guy (think Sam Bowie), not every player who gets hurt two years in a row is necessarily injury prone. I think Granger is a great guy to try to buy low on this year at the end of the first or beginning of the second round if people let him drop.
With the perpetually underrated Troy Murphy taking his talents to Newark, the PF spot is opened up at the moment for either Tyler Hansbrough or Josh McRoberts (with 24-year old rookie Magnum Rolle waiting in the wings). Hansbrough is apparently getting treatment this summer for vertigo, which I didn’t know existed out of Alfred Hitchcock moves, and yet sounds like an appropriate analogy for his fantasy value (I’m getting dizzy just thinking about it). Provided he can walk in a straight line come the fall and wins the starting job, Hansbrough could become a decent points/rebounds and not much else type big man. McRoberts makes an even less intriguing play at the position. ‘Meh’ is about all the excitement I can drum up for the Pacers PF spot.
Given the teams’ sudden lack of frontcourt depth, Roy Hibbert picks up a little bit of value and should benefit in the rebounding and touches department. Hibbert had a nice sophomore bump last season, and when he wasn’t fouling out of games, he had the potential to put up a double-double and block 6 shots. You are not going to get value for him in a draft again this year, but he will make a decent starting center in the late-mid rounds.
Brandon Rush and Dahntay Jones will likely split time at SG again this season and work to cancel each other out fantasy-wise. Keep them on the free agent scrap heap unless Granger gets hurt again. Rush can hit the three with good consistency though and makes the slightly better bad option. And like Ford, Mike Dunleavy simply has trade bait written all over him this season. He isn’t worth drafting.
Paul George, Lance Stephenson and Magnum Rolle all have great names (George should really be in an 80’s cover band) but they will all have minimal impact their rookie seasons. George projects to be a Granger replacement down the road and should be able to learn a thing or two from Granger if they are both open to the student/teacher thing.
So, among the players to draft… Here’s your official GMTR Guidance (for a 12 team league):
Danny Granger – End of 1st
Darren Collison – 5th
Roy Hibbert – 7th/8th
Tyler Hansbrough – last round
fbasketballblog takes on the challenge of placing Danny Granger in their top-25 list
More on Darren Collison and his fantasy value
fbasketballblog
Weakside Help
Fantasy Hoopster
NBA Soup
Fantasy Knuckleheads
Fantasy Hype
Fantasy Basketball Breakdown
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Since Nels did it so well in his Thunder preview, I thought I’d throw out a Pacers’ wallpaper in case you want to get serious with Danny Granger. Bonus points for the tagline, “Saving Indiana Since 2005.”
from http://drivenfranchise.co.cc
If what they’ve done since 2005 is what you call saving Indiana, I really don’t want to be saved.
Tags: Danny Granger, Darren Collison, Indiana Pacers, Roy Hibbert, TJ Ford, Troy Murphy
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