The NBA Schedule Part 1: Weekly Schedules

Categorized as: Author: Patrick, Fantasy Basketball Draft Guide 2010
Posted on: September 18th, 2010

Just in case you were unaware, GMTR has the entire NBA schedule formatted and published in a Google spreadsheet for your consumption. This includes not only a list of every game for the 2010-11 season, but also has:

Weekly Schedule Grid
Daily Schedule Grid
A Team-by-Team Game Comparison Sheet

In this post, we’ll take a quick look at weekly schedules and attempt to identify which teams have good ones and those with not so good ones.

There are two ways that weekly schedules can have an effect on fantasy teams. The first is if you play in a league with weekly changes. The typical fantasy league has weeks that run from Monday through Sunday and these types of leagues only allow you to change your lineup once a week. The amount of games that a player has scheduled for the week becomes an important factor in your decision about which players to start.

The second are H2H leagues in general. Even if you play in a daily changes league, H2H leagues have head-to-head matchups that run on a weekly basis. So you may be able to swap players in and out of your lineup on a daily basis, but the more games a player has in any given week, the more stats you are able to rack up against your opponent.

The big question is: what makes a good NBA schedule for fantasy purposes? Since every team plays the same number of games in a season, every 4 or 5 game week that a team has is generally offset by a week where they only play 1-2 games. As a result, teams have fantasy schedules that fall somewhere in the following continuum.

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Feast or Famine: Teams that have a lot of 4 game weeks as well as 1-2 game weeks

Two teams have 13 weeks where they play 4 or more games: the Pacers and Raptors. In addition, the Nets, Knicks, Magic and Wizards all have 12 weeks where they play 4 or more games. The downside is that all of these teams have at least 4 weeks where they only play 1-2 games, with the Pacers and Nets having 5 such weeks.

Slow and Steady Wins the Race: Teams with the most 3 game weeks

The Milwaukee Bucks have the most consistent schedule in the league, with 14 weeks of exactly three games. The Cavs have 13 weeks of 3 games and a bunch of teams have 12. The downside to consistency is a lack of upside. The Bucks only have 9 weeks of 4 or more games.

For a full list of team schedules by week and a summary of 4+ game, 3 game, and 1-2 game weeks, check out the GMTR weekly schedule grid.

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So, what type of schedule is “good”? Well, it depends on a couple of factors. If you’re the type of fantasy owner who likes to wheel and deal, adding and dropping players and trying to maximize games played, then the feast or famine type schedules are for you. You can get 4 games from a player one week, and then sit him (or even drop him) for another player the next week (or even day).

However, if you’re the type of owner who likes to check in on your team once a week, then – first off – what are you doing playing fantasy basketball to begin with? But if you intend to play the same players week after week, then a consistent schedule will likely be more beneficial to your team’s win-loss record.

That leads to the major benefit of a consistent schedule for those of you in weekly changes leagues. Even teams adding and dropping players all the time will likely have a core group of players that they always play. If you draft LeBron James, you are not going to sit him just because he has two games in a week. Weeks where a couple of your top draft picks happen to have 1-2 games at the same time can result in brutal losses, so it’s smart to try have your first couple of picks with schedules that complement each other. I wouldn’t make schedules the main reason to draft a player, but it will have an effect on your team’s win-loss record. For those of you who make Danny Granger your first pick, be prepared to suffer through five separate 1-2 game weeks with the Pacers.

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So, back to the question of which teams have the best and worst fantasy schedules. In my opinion, Toronto has the best fantasy schedule, with 13 weeks of 4+ games and only 4 weeks of 1-2 games. This is the best combination of upside weeks and 1-2 game weeks. A number of teams are tied for second best, basically any team that has 8 more weeks of 4+ games than they do 1-2 game weeks. This includes teams like the Celtics, Cavs, Knicks, Thunder, Wizards and some others. For consistency, the Cavs and Bucks only have two weeks in which they play 1-2 games.

The worst fantasy schedules in the league belong to the Hawks, Mavs and the Blazers. What do they all have in common? They are the three teams in the league who have a 5 game week. A five game week sounds great in theory (and it may be a guaranteed victory that week), but it comes at the expense of the rest of their schedule. The Blazers, for example, only have 11 weeks of 4+ games, but 5 weeks of 1-2 games.

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