Time to Get REAL: Part One

I’ve been posting some of my mock draft results in previous posts with the hopes that some insight may derived from how those transpired and via the thought processes I went through. However, if someone were to heckle those efforts, they’d say: “Those are just freakin’ mocks and people don’t take ‘em seriously.” “My league is competitive and they don’t draft like some random shmucks.”

OK. I get it. Some people don’t give a crap about mock draft results.

So, here’s the real deal. The draft results of an honest to goodness, REAL league, drafted by REAL people, with minimal auto-picks (88.8% attendance)

For People Who Like It DEEP and HARD

There aren’t many resources out there that cater to people who play in deep leagues. Hopefully, my experience at this 18-manager draft will be able to shed some light on the actual depth of the players out there.

The Deep

The league is a head to head (H2H), playing the standard nine cats of PTS, REB, AST, FG%, FT%, 3PTM, STL, BLK, TO. We employ a daily roster changes setting with a cap of 60 moves (adds/drops). Due to the league’s depth the roster is modified. We have a 10-player roster – PG, G, SG, F, SF, PF, C, Util, BN, BN. So 18 teams X 10 roster slots = 180 players deep into the pool.

This is my fourth year of participation in this league. I’ve never managed to make it to the playoffs. My best finish was last year when I finished in seventh. I know! In fact that finish still has a lingering, bitter taste in my mouth, as I had to swallow another heaping spoonful of humble sauce. Through some patience, a lot of impulse control, and hopefully a bit of luck, I intend to make this fourth time the charm.In fairness, my fellow managers are pretty competitive. Some, as early as two years back, specifically armed themselves with iPhones just to be able to make key pick-ups “on the go.” Why else would anyone want an iPhone other than fantasy sports access anyway?

The Draft

I was in the middle of wrapping up the latest GMTR podcast with Nels and Patrick, when the league’s commissioner buzzed me via Yahoo messenger with a simple “Congrats!” As soon as I bid the guys goodbye, I hung up on Skype and replied to him with a “?”

“Do you want to know your position?” was his speedy reply. At this point, I was launching the draft window, but replied with a short “K,” nonetheless. His reply came in about the same millisecond the tab loaded. ”Fifth!”

I was stunned, not “omg! – I’m so happy – stunned,” but more of “Uh, who the heck do I pick?” kind of stunned. Allow me to share my quandary at the time. Let’s assume, and it generally is safe to assume this, that the first four picks in a fantasy NBA draft will be Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Chris Paul, Dirk Nowitzki. Not necessarily in that order. We, at GMTR, ranked Danny Granger at fifth. Now the dilemma in deep leagues is that the drop off in talent and value of players as each round goes by is steeper than in your standard 12-man league.

With that in mind, you lose your first round pick to a long-term injury, you’re pretty much screwed. So it was a “No” to Granger.

Kobe? But his knee issues are bothering my fantasy basketball drafting sensibilities probably much more than it (his knee) is hampering him. So, no.

Wade? There are questions still hanging as to how he will deliver now that he has friends sleeping over at “His HOUSE,” that and his pulled hamstring is still fresh in my memory.

Curry and Williams (Deron) felt like too “reachy” at fifth.

My decision was down to two guys, Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard. Yes, Dwight Howard. My proposition is that in this deep of a league, and since it’s H2H, D12′s dominance in the REB, FG%, BLK, categories will mean I will need less support to win those cats. The catch of course, is that I am committing to punting FT%. Gasol is superior in FT% and TO’s, but I remembered that Howard’s missed a total of THREE games since W was still in office. His durability won me over. Plus this video was replaying in slo-mo in my mind as the timer counting down the minutes before the draft was to begin, slowly ticked away:

And so Dwight was the choice. I loaded up my cheat sheets and prepped for the possibility of a Dirk pick just in case the guys ahead of me decided to do something funky.

Here’s how Round One of the draft actually played out. My team is named “Z E N.” I’ll get into that story some other time. For your reference, Bench Boys and Big Three Miami, in 17th and 18th draft positions respectively did not make the draft. Those teams were “auto-picked.”

Legend: I like. I don’t like.

Round 1

1. Kevin Durant (OKC – SF) - yotimon

2. LeBron James (Mia – SF) - No Upside

3. Chris Paul (NO – PG) - Up In The AAir

4. Dirk Nowitzki (Dal – PF) - Cop-a-Feeler

5. Dwight Howard (Orl – C) - Z E N

6. Kobe Bryant (LAL – SG) - Dark Blue Raps

7. Stephen Curry (GS – PG) – The Expendables

8. Deron Williams (Uta – PG) - Unlimited Reach

9. Pau Gasol (LAL – PF,C) - meanstreakers

10. David Lee (GS – PF,C) - Mariuz

11. Dwyane Wade - (Mia – PG,SG) - Crunchers

12. Amar’e Stoudemire (NY – PF,C) - Supercow

13. Danny Granger (Ind – SF,PF) - hotdogs2011

14. Carmelo Anthony (Den – SF) - Great Eagle …

15. Brook Lopez (NJ – C) - Ogre Tactics

16. Rajon Rondo (Bos – PG) - Malibuguns

17. Gerald Wallace (Cha – SF,PF) - Bench Boys

18. Josh Smith (Atl – PF) - Big Three Miami

Aside from my Howard pick, Kobe being picked at 4th, Wade dropping to 11th and Danny Granger at 13th were the other notable variances from the standard rankings. Otherwise, you can see that my co-managers were after optimizing value from their first-round choices.

Round 2

1. Jason Kidd (Dal – PG) - Big Three Miami

2. Steve Nash (Pho – PG) - Bench Boys

3. Chris Bosh (Mia – PF,C) - Malibuguns

4. Andre Iguodala (Phi – SG,SF) - Ogre Tactics

5. Tyreke Evans (Sac – PG,SG) - Great Eagle …

6. Andrea Bargnani (Tor – PF,C) - hotdogs2011

7. Russell Westbrook (OKC – PG) - Supercow

8. Brandon Roy (Por – SG,SF) - Crunchers

9. Chauncey Billups (Den – PG) - Mariuz

10. Al Horford (Atl – PF,C) - meanstreakers

11. Al Jefferson (Uta – PF,C) - Unlimited Reach

12. Tim Duncan (SA – PF,C) - The Expendables

13. Derrick Rose (Chi – PG) - Dark Blue Raps

14. Paul Pierce (Bos – SG,SF) - Z E N

15. Joe Johnson (Atl – SG,SF) - Cop-a-Feeler

16. Kevin Love (Min – PF,C) - Up In The AAir

17. David West (NO – PF) - No Upside

18. Monta Ellis (GS – PG,SG) - yotimon

There are two picks in this round that are glaring reaches, Russell Westbrook at 25th overall and Derrick Rose 31st overall. I’m not taking anything away from either of these PG’s. They both still have some significant improvements to show us, but until either of them start converting on threes or at least lower their turnovers per game, I cannot see how their perceived, projected outputs can merit these draft positions. We have both guards somewhere in the 70′s range.

I initially visualized pairing Dwight with someone like Tyreke Evans or Andrea Bargnani, but no dice. They were grabbed way ahead of where my draft projections had them penciled in. I was cringing as I watched the Al’s (Horford and Jefferson), followed by Tim Duncan fly off the board one after the other.

I was toying with picking Monta Ellis, Joe Johnson, and Paul Pierce. I am waiting for Monta to deliver another injury-free or even injury-lite season. JJ vs. PP. I opted for Pierce for a few reasons.

He shot 47.2% (12.2) from the field last season versus Joe’s 45.8% (18.2 attempts). I figured he would hurt my FG% investment less.
Atlanta has one of the worst schedules for fantasy, while Boston has one of the best. Yes, schedules do play a role in my drafting strategy.
Joe has the better outside stroke and dimes dished per game, but Truth has better D.
Paul Pierce is not overpaid right now. Ok, that wasn’t really one of my criteria, but I couldn’t help taking a stab.

Mainly, I wanted good FG% from the SG spot. I figured I could then grab either K-Love or Darren Collison in the third round to begin balancing out my team.

One-Two Combo pairings that I like are: Pau-Horford, Wade-Roy, Lee-Billups, Deron-Jefferson (Hey ain’t that a REAL combo?), Dirk-JJ, CP3-Love, Granger-Bargnani.

Round 3

1. Zach Randolph (Mem – PF,C) - yotimon

2. Nene Hilario (Den – PF,C) - No Upside

3. Darren Collison (Ind – PG) -Up In The AAir

4. Rudy Gay (Mem – SF,PF) - Cop-a-Feeler

5. Marc Gasol (Mem – C) - Z E N

6. Joakim Noah (Chi – PF,C) - Dark Blue Raps

7. Stephen Jackson (Cha – SG,SF) - The Expendables

8. Danilo Gallinari (NY – SF) - Unlimited Reach

9. Andray Blatche (Was – PF,C) - meanstreakers

10. John Wall (Was – PG) - Mariuz

11. Troy Murphy (NJ – PF,C) - Crunchers

12. Andrew Bogut (Mil – C) - Supercow

13. Gilbert Arenas (Was – PG,SG) - hotdogs2011

14. Luis Scola (Hou – PF,C) - Great Eagle …

15. LaMarcus Aldridge (Por – PF,C) - Ogre Tactics

16. Blake Griffin (LAC – PF) - Malibuguns

17. Carlos Boozer (Chi – PF,C) - Bench Boys

18. Manu Ginobili (SA – SG) - Big Three Miami

Ah, the best laid plans of mice and men… As you can see, K-Love and Collison were taken before I could grab them. My mind was focused on Darren and I wanted to grab a PG, but Aaron Brooks and Raymond Felton felt like too much of a reach at this point in the draft.

I moved on, abandoned the PG-reach idea and Marc Gasol‘s name stared back at me from my laptop screen. To the average manager, pairing Gasol and Howard together would probably seem like a no-brainer decision. If this was a standard league with two center slots, I wouldn’t have even given this pick a second thought. The thing is that because of the league’s depth, we have one C slot and both Dwight and Marc are both C-only eligible in Yahoo. This is where I appreciate the fact that we are set to daily roster changes. I can play Marc at the Util when both Orlando and Memphis have games on the same day, but otherwise both of them can split time at the C during the week. Joakim Noah, and his PF eligibility was quite tempting, but in the end I could not resist the awesome twosome that a Dwight-Marc tandem formed.

Let’s call this the “Wizards Round” as Washington’s top three players were picked here. Grabbing Arenas and Wall this early is more of a risk-reward gamble as opposed to a full fledged reach. They both have high upsides, but Wall is untested and Gil is suffering from both a past and a reputation that precede him.

Manu being auto-drafted this late in the draft (54), might just provide his fantasy team with some good value. Well that’s at least until he has to go through the mandatory “Popovich rest cycle” during the later stages of the season.

Scola was a bit of a surprise here and frankly, I’m too thrilled seeing him taken this early. Blake Griffin’s pre-season games must have really left an impression in the mind of Malibuguns. In that light, I can kind of understand the reach, but for now I still consider this to be a risk-reward pick that’s leaning more and more on reward and less on risk, as each Clipper game ticks by.

Round 4

1. Mo Williams (Cle – PG) - Big Three Miami

2. Marcus Camby (Por – PF,C) - Bench Boys

3. Kevin Martin (Hou – SG) - Malibuguns

4. Aaron Brooks (Hou – PG) - Ogre Tactics

5. Lamar Odom (LAL – SF,PF) - Great Eagle …

6. Raymond Felton (NY – PG,SG) - hotdogs2011

7. Antawn Jamison (Cle – SF,PF) - Supercow

8. Jason Richardson (Pho – SG,SF) - Crunchers

9. Jeff Green (OKC – SF,PF) - Mariuz

10. Anthony Randolph (NY – PF,C) - meanstreakers

11. Samuel Dalembert (Sac – C) - Unlimited Reach

12. Chris Kaman (LAC – C) - The Expendables

13. Brandon Jennings (Mil – PG) - Dark Blue Raps

14. Trevor Ariza (NO – SG,SF) - Z E N

15. Kevin Garnett (Bos – PF) - Cop-a-Feeler

16. Roy Hibbert (Ind – C) - Up In The AAir

17. Paul Millsap (Uta – PF) - No Upside

18. Baron Davis (LAC – PG) - yotimon

At this point, with Howard and Gasol handling the big man duties, I wanted to stay the course and try to just punt FT%. This means that I want treys, steals, assists. Aaron Brooks, Mo Williams and Ray Felton are off the board, so I opted to go for someone who could give me two of those three things I wanted. Enter, Trevor Ariza. I am firm believer that his move to New Orleans will drastically improve his FG%, so I am not afraid of him hurting my investment there. He does, however, provide my team with someone to anchor my steals category and at the same time bring in some love from down town. Cop-a-Feeler, has owned Ariza for the last two seasons. So I know that there’s some history there. I calculated that if I didn’t grab Trevor here, Cop would take him if not here in the fourth, downward on the fifth.

I think Kev-Mart’s drop gives his owner some awesome value here. Patrick would agree with me here. If he stays healthy that is. Patrick would agree on that too. Lamar Odom’s first two months (with Bynum hurt) makes his draft upgrade worth it. Sam Dalembert is a bit early in my opinion. Roy Hibbert reach alert! I know he’s supposed to get better, but we heard that song last year. While Darren’s addition to the Pacers is promising, Hibbert’s biggest stumbling block is still his penchant for getting into early foul trouble. Hopefully, for his owner, he’ll get better at avoiding those ticky-tack fouls in 2010.

Round 5

Round 5

1. Ray Allen (Bos – SG) - yotimon

2. Caron Butler (Dal – SG,SF) - No Upside

3. O.J. Mayo (Mem – SG) - Up In The AAir

4. Jameer Nelson (Orl – PG) - Cop-a-Feeler

5. Jrue Holiday (Phi – PG) - Z E N

6. Hedo Turkoglu (Pho – SG,SF) - Dark Blue Raps

7. Elton Brand (Phi – PF,C) - The Expendables

8. Eric Gordon (LAC – SG) - Unlimited Reach

9. Marcus Thornton (NO – SG) - meanstreakers

10. Jason Terry (Dal – PG,SG) - Mariuz

11. Andre Miller (Por – PG) - Crunchers

12. John Salmons (Mil – SG,SF) - Supercow

13. Andrew Bynum (LAL – C) - hotdogs2011

14. Rodney Stuckey (Det – PG,SG) - Great Eagle …

15. Rashard Lewis (Orl – SF,PF) - Ogre Tactics

16. Devin Harris (NJ – PG) - Malibuguns

17. Channing Frye (Pho – PF,C) - Bench Boys

18. Andrei Kirilenko (Uta – SF,PF) - Big Three Miami

So I went C-G/F, C-G/F, for the first four rounds of the draft. It’s not the norm, but I wasn’t too disappointed with my picks at that point. For the fifth round I wanted to go for either a PG or a PF. I was staring at Devin Harris and Jrue Holiday, who were both hovering close to the top of my pre-rankings. I did not do much research on Holiday, so I wasn’t sure. I on the other hand, have done too much on Devin, which scared more than inspired me. In the end, I went for youth and upside over scoring and injury risk. The problem with this decision was that it added another category I was becoming weak at, POINTS. Punt two? “Ok, why not. Let’s do this.” I told myself.

In hindsight, it might have been better to perhaps hold off on grabbing a PG and just go for another forward. Hedo and Salmons were options at that stage, but since Jrue will hopefully break out this year, I think I am at peace (for now) with my choice.

Now if Harris, who was eventually picked at 88th can stay healthy, Malibuguns might have just gotten away with a steal in the fifth.

I don’t know how long Hotdogs can hold out for Bynum. Since we set rosters daily, Hotdogs will be at a games played disadvantage for 2010. That to me seems a bit too painful an investment, considering he will have to wait for 2011 for it to pay dividends.

AK-47 and his injury prone past, was auto-picked at 90th and now has the chance to provide his owner with many games that resemble multi-category fiestas! GMTR has him ranked at 62nd. Heck, I shudda grabbed him, but alas my fear of injuries spooked me away. Big Three Miami (the fantasy team) has a current core of Josh Smith, Jason Kidd, Manu Ginobili, Mo Williams, and Andrei Kirilenko. For a team whose manager wasn’t present during the live draft, this team’s looking pretty dang good if should say so myself.

***

That’s it for the first half of our draft. Rounds 6-10 will follow in a succeeding post. Stay tuned!

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Tags: Andrei Kirilenko, Andrew Bynum, Deep Leagues, Devin Harris, Dwight Howard, Gilbert arenas, Joe Johnson, John Wall, Jrue Holiday, Marc Gasol, Paul Pierce, Roy Hibbert, Trevor Ariza

Dnylkiller

Love it deep EriK, My keeper league is 16 teams x 15 man roster = 240 Deep! I like the idea of that 30 man league that Patrick is talking about. Paul Pierce? Safe sure! But Boring!
http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

240 deep? Hardcore! Boring works for me. Don’t worry, my late-rounders are a bit more adventurous than the ubiquitous Celtic pick.

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