Fantasy Owners: Be Afraid of Jim O’Brien. Be Very Afraid

Categorized as: Author: Patrick, Indiana Pacers, NBA Teams
Posted on: January 5th, 2011

Drastic changes to the rotation. Check. Playing guys out of position. Check. Mid-season adjustments to mix things up. Check. It has all the look of a coach desperately trying to keep his job. And Roy Hibbert owners are the ones feeling the pain.

Is this man ruining your life?

Indiana Pacers coach Jim O’Brien recently decided that the Pacers best chance of winning is to play small ball. This past Sunday against the Knicks, O’Brien went with a new starting lineup that featured Darren Collison, Brandon Rush, Mike Dunleavy, Danny Granger and Jeff Foster. TJ Ford got the most run off the bench (25 minutes) while Roy Hibbert got less minutes (16) than James Posey (19).

The most worrying moment for Hibbert owners (and the move that send you into nuclear meltdown if you’re a Pacers fan) occurred when Foster fouled out of the game with three and a half minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Instead of bringing in Hibbert to guard Amar’e Stoudemire, O’Brien went with the 6-8 Posey at center. Posey was promptly scored on three times in three minutes by Stoudemire, but the damage was done. Not only did the Pacers lose the game, but O’Brien clearly demonstrated how little he trusts Hibbert right now.

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The question of whether the Pacers are better off as a small ball team is valid. The team has lost 11 of their past 16 games. Hibbert has been in a funk the past couple of weeks and the team is getting little production from the power forward trio of McRoberts, Hansbrough and Posey (sounds like the worst country music act of all time). But is the team better off with Danny Granger playing power forward?

Indy Cornrows has a good analysis of the Pacers’ power forward position (jump to the second half of the post) that looks at the offensive and defensive ratings for the five guys who have played the position this season (Foster, Granger, Hansbrough, McRoberts, and Posey). You can probably guess what the results show: the Pacers don’t really have any good options at the position.

Out of all the mediocre to bad options, McRoberts is probably the best of the bunch, with a +3 differential at the position. Technically, Granger has been ever so slightly better than McRoberts at PF, but Granger doesn’t particularly like playing power forward and sacrifices a lot on the court playing out of position. So by playing small, the Pacers get a less effective Granger to get more minutes for Brandon Rush, Mike Dunleavy and Paul George. It ends up being a little bit like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic; the Pacers are going down no matter what lineup they use because they don’t have the personnel. In that way, maybe the hate should be directed at Larry Bird rather than Jim O’Brien, who is simply making shit sandwiches in the most creative ways that he can think of.

The Pacers don’t play again until Friday, so we will have to wait and see if they continue to break out the small lineup. O’Brien’s recent comments suggest that he is committed to small ball for the long haul. If that’s true, Roy Hibbert’s fantasy value is about to come crashing down, while Rush, Dunleavy and even Paul George could see increased value. Although with George, 20 year old rookies don’t typically make the most consistent players for fantasy purposes, even when they are getting minutes.

The alternative scenario sees the Pacers’ small ball lineup crash and burn and O’Brien quickly has to return to a more traditional lineup. Hibbert owners have to decide which is the more likely scenario and move accordingly: either sell Hibbert now at a discount or hold him and hope he makes his way back into the rotation and can find his groove again. I personally think the latter will happen and Hibbert will be starting again, but it could be a long rough patch ahead for those of you counting on Hibbert in fantasy leagues.

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Tags: Danny Granger, Indiana Pacers, Roy Hibbert