Everything You Need to Know To Win Your Fantasy League

Categorized as: Author: Patrick, Fantasy Basketball Strategy
Posted on: March 18th, 2011

It is that time of year: with only a few weeks left in the NBA season, it’s either playoff time in H2H leagues or the final stretch run in rotisserie leagues. Congratulations if your team is in striking distance of your league’s championship. Now, how can you bring it home? Are there ways to exploit your leagues rules to give your team every advantage to win a championship?

Of course there are…

Focus on winning the week in H2H Playoffs. Planning ahead is a good idea as long as it doesn’t get in the way of your team’s ability to win its matchup for the current week. H2H playoffs are typically single elimination, so do anything and everything necessary to win the current week (and don’t be afraid to look desperate). No matter how easy you think your playoff matchup is, looking ahead to your next opponent is the easiest way to make a quick exit from the playoffs.

This is especially true if you’re waiting for a few players to come back from injury like Rudy Gay and Eric Gordon, while your desperate opponent just revamped half his team with a bunch of hot players like C.J. Miles, Jordan Crawford, Jodie Meeks and DeAndre Jordan. That is one way an easy matchup can quickly turn into a close call.

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Your League Setup Matters: The rules of your league should dictate your strategy (this is true not just in the playoffs, but all year). Other than whether the league is H2H or roto, the most important factor is your league’s scoring categories, since they dictate how valuable each player is and ultimately decide who wins and who loses. If your league uses unique cats, like three point percentage or field goals made, make sure to find player rater (like, say, this one) that takes these into account. You don’t want to be evaluating players based on stats that are not applicable to your league.

Are you in a standard 9-category league? Then whether it is a daily or weekly changes league makes a big difference on what you can do in the playoffs. People in weekly leagues have more flexibility when it comes to stashing players, especially injured players. But it is important to spend some time planning ahead using the upcoming weekly schedule. Make sure you get as many 4 game week players in your lineup as possible every week. Sit anyone with 2 games (unless they are a superstar). You’ll also have to make some judgment calls on injuries and who is likely to play during the week (a hint: play it safe).

People in daily change leagues have it a bit easier and have the ability to adjust to injuries that happen during the week. You also have more opportunity to exploit the system by shuffling players on and off your team to maximize games played. It is important not to miss a lineup change during the playoffs if you are in a daily league – one missed lineup can easily set you back 2-3 games on your opponent.

Does your league cap on the amount of transactions you can make for the year or during a week? If not, then streaming is an option if you don’t mind pissing people off. At the very least, a no max transaction league gives those in daily changes leagues the ability to creatively squeeze extra games out of a lineup.

The 5-4 Strategy: If you’ve got a particularly difficult matchup in the playoffs, remember that in a typical 9-category scoring league all you have do is go 5-4 for the week to win. There are no style points in the playoffs; all anyone will remember about the league is who won it. So, take an inventory of your team. What categories are your strengths and what categories are you weak in? How about your opponent? Find the five categories you are strongest in and focus all your attention there. Punt the rest. If you have players that don’t contribute in those categories, drop or bench them. Only pick up free agents who will help your strengths. Once you’ve established the areas that your team is strong in, check out the GMTR player rater and search for players who have been playing well over the past 1-2 weeks using only those categories. It’s drastic, but it works.

Max Out Those Games in Roto Leagues: One common mistake in roto leagues is not using all the games available to your team if your league caps games played (say at 82). While you don’t want to burn through all your games two-thirds of the way through the season, it’s also a bad idea to leave games on the table at the end of the year.

If you play in a league with a max game cap, one thing you can do is use up all but a few of your games before the last half-week of the season (the week all teams play 1-2 games) to avoid missing out on games played if some of your players either shut it down for the season or sit out the last few games to rest for the playoffs. You don’t want to head into the last week of the season with 20 extra games only to find that half your team is sitting out that week.

The Schedule is Kind of a Big Deal: Other than deciding who to play and who to bench in weekly changes leagues, I tend to ignore team schedules for the majority of the NBA season. This because schedules eventually even out over the long haul and there is a lot of other stuff going on, like injuries, that have a much bigger effect on fantasy teams than a schedule does.

But over a 2-4 week playoff period NBA schedules become a very important factor. Teams can have a difference of as much as 3 games over that span (that might not sound huge, but it’s up to a 30% difference). The quality of opponents that a team faces also differs greatly over such a small period.

For example, the New Jersey Nets have the best schedule in the league over the last 3 and a half weeks in the season. They play a league high 14 games against teams like the Knicks (twice), Wolves, Raptors, and Cavs. Don’t be surprised if a lot of marginal Nets players (say Damion James and Sasha Vujacic) have strong finishes to the year. Similarly, the Dallas Mavs only play 12 games over the playoff period, but they are helped by having the single best fantasy schedule the rest of the season. Their schedule features the Suns (twice), Clippers (twice), Nuggets, Warriors, Wolves and Wizards. It’s one reason why Rodrigue Beaubois will probably be in for a strong finish.

To the extent that you can load up your fantasy team with players who have good-to-great schedules means 1) you’ll be out gaming your opponent, and 2) your players will be facing off against more fantasy friendly opponents – that is – opponents who tend to give up a lot of fantasy stats.

I’ve ranked each of the 30 teams by the quality of their schedule from 3/21 to 4/14 (the last 3 and a half weeks of the season) for fantasy purposes. In parenthesis after each team name is the number of games they have over that span followed by where they rank in terms of the fantasy friendliness of their opponents (a measure of how many fantasy stats a team gives up to opponents on average).

You don’t necessarily have to focus your waiver wire adds solely from teams at the top of the list, but it will let you know which players are going to have more games against easier competition.

Team (Games / Fantasy Friendliness of Opponents) from March 21 to April 14

1. New Jersey Nets (14 / 5th)
2. Chicago Bulls (14 / 6th)
3. Washington Wizards (14 / 10th)
4. Boston Celtics (14 / 11th)
5. Sacramento Kings (14 / 13th)
6. Phoenix Suns (14 / 17th)
8. Oklahoma City Thunder (13 / 3rd)
7. Cleveland Cavaliers (14 / 23rd)
9. Milwaukee Bucks (13 / 7th)
11. Dallas Mavericks (12 / 1st)
10. Toronto Raptors (13 / 16th)
12. San Antonio Spurs (13 / 20th)
14. Denver Nuggets (12 / 2nd)
13. Charlotte Bobcats (13 / 22nd)
15. Miami Heat (12 / 4th)
16. Los Angeles Lakers (12 / 14th)
17. Detroit Pistons (12 / 15th)
18. Golden State Warriors (12 / 19th)
19. Portland Trail Blazers (12 / 21st)
20. Atlanta Hawks (12 / 25th)
21. Memphis Grizzlies (12 / 26th)
24. Los Angeles Clippers (11 / 8th)
26. Orlando Magic (11 / 9th)
22. Utah Jazz (12 / 27th)
23. Indiana Pacers (12 / 28th)
27. New Orleans Hornets (11 / 12th)
25. New York Knicks (12 / 29th)
29. Houston Rockets (11 / 18th)
28. Philadelphia 76ers (12 / 30th)
30. Minnesota Timberwolves (11 / 24th)

Streaming: The controversial practice of streaming occurs when an owner cycles players on and off their team on a daily basis in order to maximize games played. The goal of streaming is to physically bludgeon your opponent to death in all of the counting categories by racking up as many games played as possible over the week (resulting in a huge games advantage over your opponent). Teams in weekly changes leagues or teams that have a weekly transaction cap are not going to be able to stream effectively, but if you play in a daily changes league without a transaction cap, well, then the commissioner has just given you carte blanche to stream as much as possible.

First a warning: You are not going to make any friends with this strategy, and in fact there is a good chance that the league will hate you by the end of the playoffs. But as long as it is within the boundaries of the league, then streaming is the easiest way for a team with lesser talent to beat a stronger opponent.

Is there a streaming “strategy” to use? While streaming is a brute force method, try to aim for players with good matchups (the Wolves, Knicks, Warriors, Nuggets, Cavs, Raptors, Suns are always good bets). Also, it is good to think of the 5-4 strategy when you stream and focus on players who consistently contribute in categories you need (like DeAndre Jordan for blocks, Tony Allen for steals, and Rudy Fernandez for threes).

Just Say No to Injured Players: Injuries are one of the most difficult things to deal with during the fantasy playoffs because of the uncertainly that surrounds them. For example, Rudy Gay, was expected to miss four weeks after injuring his left shoulder. He has already been out four weeks and is still at least a week away because he’s still having difficulty lifting his arm.

If you’re currently sitting on an injured player, then you need to evaluate how it will affect your team’s ability to win in the short-term. Can you afford to play a man down and still have a better than average chance at winning the week? The goal during the playoffs is to do everything possible to move to the next round, so a player who is out for the week is basically dead weight to your team. In a weekly changes league, you may be able to sit on an injured player or two, but in a daily changes league you’ll have to make the tough decision whether or not to drop a player like Gay who is not contributing to your team.

Shutdown Candidates: Why is it a good idea to drop injured players this time of year? Because nagging injuries often turn into day-to-day for the rest of the season. It is a waste of a roster spot to sit on a player for weeks only to have them eventually shut it down for the season.

Here are a few players I’d be worried about shutting it down or not returning to the court this regular season.

Rashard Lewis – He’s getting a third opinion on this knee, but even if he doesn’t need surgery, he won’t play another game this season (not that you’d want him to).

Rudy Gay – Is still having trouble with his shoulder after dislocating it. He’s at least 1-2 weeks way from returning, but the playoffs sounds like a more reasonable goal.

Nick Young – Has been playing through a knee injury for a while now. Information on Young is limited, but it sounds pretty serious.

Andray Blatche – According to the Washington Post, Blatche still can’t lift his arm over his head. He’s day-to-day, but I wouldn’t expect him back in the next game or two.

Deron Williams/Tyreke Evans/Eric Gordon are all either playing or close to being back on the court, but could also decide to shut it down at any time.

Breakout Candidates: Injuries lead to opportunity for others. Every year there are a few players who go completely out of their minds the last month of the season (and usually get drafted way to soon as a result the following season).

Generally, these breakout players are guys who get an opportunity to play because of injuries, or possibly because a crappy team out of playoff contention wants to give playing time young guys. Someone like Jordan Crawford is a little bit of both. He saw his playing time increase into the mid-20’s a game after a trade to the Wizards. Then a knee injury to Nick Young gave him the start in the Wizards’ last game. Crawford played all 48 minutes in that game and finished with 27 points.

If I could accurately predict breakout players, I wouldn’t be here writing this on this blog for free, but this time of year crappy teams will often give extra run to young players. Also, if a starter gets injured, don’t hesitate to pick up his backup even if the injury seems minor. For example, if Deron Williams even thinks about missing a game with his sore wrist, jump all over Jordan Farmar. Guys like Jordan Crawford, Tyler Hansbrough, Jodie Meeks, Rodrigue Beaubois, Samardo Samuels and C.J. Miles are all posed for strong finishes in 2011.

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Tags: Fantasy Basketball Strategy