Yeah thats about 20 spots off. 

JaVale McGee not in the top 150?  Are you kidding?

I stand by the Jefferson projection. There are a couple things not to like about him this year. First, last year not withstanding, his injury history hurts his projection. Second, as things stand right now the Jazz have both a healthy Okur and Enes Kanter to steal a few of his minutes this year. The Jazz might be looking to make a move before the start of the season, but for now that is where I believe Jefferson belongs.

I’m out of town at the moment, but I’ll check to see what’s going on with the McGee projection when I get back home. He should be in the top 150.

Love the articles. The ranking is for 8 category leagues, right?  I decided to start a similar blog focused on 9 category leagues (includes TOs). Makes a big difference when you add in just that one stat.

http://rotonba.posterous.com/

can you guys help me out in choosing 4 keepers in a keeper league h2h 9 categories. my players are: dwade, zbo, al horford, bogut, dorell wright, wesley matthews, rodney stuckey, ryan anderson, toney douglas, ariza, big baby.

dwade, zbo and horford are my sure picks but still debating on who to pick as the last keeper. bogut wesley matthews or dorell wright?

Underrated: LaMarcus Aldridge (19), Danny Granger (31), Al Jefferson (32), Gerald Wallace (56), Andrew Bynum (71), Wesley Matthews post-Roy debacle (75), Greg Monroe (80), Tyson Chandler (100), Marcin Gortat (116), Toney Douglas post-Billups (125), Ryan Anderson (129), maybe John Salmons (135) and JaVale McGee (-).

Overrated: Russell Westbrook (6), Andre Iguodala (23), Jason Kidd (38), Mike Conley (39), Andray Blatche (53), Baron Davis (65), Shane Battier (69), Landry Fields (92), Tyrus Thomas (94), J.J. Hickson (102) and Corey Brewer (145).

I’d go with Bogut in this case. Dorrell Wright is a close second, but with Bogut you have a solid 2nd-3rd tier player in a position that is very short on talent. With Horford and Bogut, you have 2 of the top 4 centers and since Center and PG are the position that people worry most about, I think it would be a good idea to lock that up.

Like I said, Dorrell Wright is very tempting, and you wouldn’t be at all wrong to go with him, but certainly either of him or Bogut is a better choice than Matthews. The Blazers team, even without Brandon Roy, is far too crowded. Matthews is due for a 3rd year bump, but we don’t know what effect the shortened season will have on that kind of thing that we have begun to take for granted. I feel like Wright is also in a situation where there is a lot of talent around him, while Bogut is clearly the 1st or 2nd option on that team and there’s no one there after that (Stephen Jackson does not count).

I’d like to know if there is a way to group players together based on similar stat lines?

Reason being that if I pass on let say pau gasol  in the first because I could get a player that provides similar stats in the 3rd…like david west, who is gasol minus blocks. That would allow me to take a player i value more for my team.

I’m not going to make a terribly long winded post about this. I’d just like to know if it’s possible to group similar players together within 1 deviation of each other?

furthermore, a spreadsheet on guards to have for big ball or midball teams. And yes, I’m asking for the world, but hopefully theres a topic in there that hasn’t been beat to death…because I know midball and big ball has been beat to death. And most of your readers understand the concepts and dont want to read much mroe about it

Terrance

I like to say that anything is possible – as long as you’ve got the time and the money. I have neither, but yeah, you can certainly group players together based on the similarity in their stats. In fact part of the way I projected player stats in our top 150 list for this season was to match similar players going back in time based on their stats and use those players’ year+1 season to calculate a projection. 

I could rearrange the program to spit out a list of similar player comps (i.e., similarity scores) for the current season. I’ve done some work in the past on the topic and what you find is that the top guys in the league are pretty unique, but many guys in the mid and lower rounds are very similar in what they produce for fantasy teams.

Great suggestions. We’ll see what we can do before the start of the season. 

Hey Patrick,

Is your rankings based on 9cat H2H?

Good question, and one that depends on a number of factors, like the size of your league and the other owners in your league.

What I can say that in a 12-team H2H league the average team would have netted something like 196 rebounds over the course of an average week in 2011-12. That’s 5.6 rebounds a game (the average from our top 140 players last season – and I went to 140 to account for injuries at any given point in time) * 10 starters per team *  3.5 games per week. 

Howard averaged 14.1 rebounds per game, or about 49 per week. That means drafting Howard gets a team 25% of the rebounds you’ll need to get to that league average number. If all you did was draft Howard and put an average rebounding team around him, your team would net around 226 rebounds a week (with the understanding that there is a lot of variability in these numbers on a week-to-week basis) or 15% more than the first team.

What complicates the question is what your fellow owners do in the league. At a minimum, some owner is going to get Kevin Love and another will have Blake Griffin, etc, so there will be other teams in the league that have rebounding as a strength. I am traveling and don’t have access to my NBA standard deviation numbers at the moment, but once I get back I can probably find a total number of rebounds per week in which you could reasonably expect to win boards against most teams most of the time. 

My guess for now is that adding one good rebounder to Howard wouldn’t be enough, you’d probably need at least two if you wanted to make rebounding real team strength.

My guess for Johnson is that most of (projected) numbers are just kind of mediocre. 18 points is all well and good, and 4.6 assists is nice for a SG, but 4.2 rebounds is a little closer to the Meh side while 0.6 steals and 0.1 blocks are kind of awful. The 1.3 threes are nice, but you only get 44% FG shooting (which is effectively lower because he takes so many shots) and 77% FT shooting (which doesn’t help that much since he takes so few shots). Overall, he’s just kind of decent and I think his ranking reflects that. The stat calculator that Patrick used actually had him much lower, but we bumped him up manually.

Tony Allen’s strength comes mostly from his project 2.3 steals. That might be a bit high, but he did have 1.8 last season, so it’s not totally unheard of. The stat model also compared to historical players and how similar players played in the next year (so perhaps someone very similar to Allen who had 1.8 steals jumped to 2.3 the next year so the model thought that was a logical projection for him). Allen also has a nice FG% on a decent number of shots, so he will positively impact your team with that.

The best I can say for a conclusion is that if you believe the projections in the spreadsheet, then the rankings are accurate. If you think Johnson will get back to 21-25 points per game, then obviously he’ll move up your list. And if you don’t think Allen will get that many steals nor shoot that well again, then you can move him down.

I see. Thanks for the replies guys, I see where you guys are coming from now.Continue the good work!

Yeah McGee was accidently left out of the projections,
likely because as the Wizards’ center, he was the last person on my player
list. Thanks for bringing that to my attention. It has been fixed.