Fantasy Basketball Player Tiers: Point Guards

Categorized as: Author: Nels, Fantasy Basketball Draft Guide 2011, Fantasy Basketball Strategy
Posted on: December 16th, 2011

Ed. Note: Well, since I’ve already written half of this article, I am going to try to finish it… but from the time I started, Chauncey Billups was claimed, Chris Paul was traded, and Baron Davis announced he has a herniated disc. “Do the Point Guards first” we said, “It doesn’t look like much will change there.” The odds of getting this right seem about as as good as the 2012 Super Bowl Odds if you’re betting against Green Bay. After this, I’m better off reporting on the fantasy impact of player movement, because trying to assign tiers to player – let alone describe why they belong in those tiers – seems like a Sisyphean effort.

Toad would make a pretty awesome Point Guard

So, here is the explanation behind the GMTR Fantasy Basketball Players by Tiers spreadsheet. For Point Guards, at least.

Tier 1: Elite/First Round
Derrick Rose
Chris Paul
Russell Westbrook
Stephen Curry

You can argue – maybe – that Stephen Curry should be down in the next tier with D-Will, but the other three guys are all going to be gone in the first round. Three of the four are shoot-first type PGs who also manage to get a lot of assists, steals, and threes. That’s why they’re at the top. Then there’s Chris Paul, who is now playing with Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordon, and Caron Butler. Pick as many of these 4 as you can.

Tier 2: Second Round
Deron Williams

If Williams isn’t gone by the end of the second round, then either you’re in a 6 team league, or you need to find some better competition.

Tier 3: The Question Marks
Rajon Rondo
Raymond Felton
John Wall
Kyle Lowry
Jason Kidd

Is Rondo going to be in Boston? How much overweight is Raymond Felton, and are the Blazers so banged up that he becomes a top 3 option on that team? Will John Wall continue to turn the ball over as much as the Kardashian sisters make the covers of gossip magazines? (Kourtney’s pregnant; Khloe can’t have kids; Kim still has a giant ass; apparently Kris was a giant ass) Will Kevin Martin be out of Houston and leave the missile codes in Kyle Lowry’s locker? (Get it? Get it?) Will Jason Kidd replace more body parts with custom bionic components or will he buy off the shelf robot parts that need oil and perhaps plutonium and don’t come with a heart?

Whatever the answer to these questions, we at GMTR believe that these guys will produce at a Top 40 level.

Tier 4: The Should Have Been Tier 3 Guys
Mike Conley
Tyreke Evans
Steve Nash

These 3 have the potential to be as good or better than the guys in the tier above them (except Rondo). But they could also fall off (Conley) or struggle to work with the pieces around them (Evans, Nash). Still, no one’s going to fault you for taking any of them.

Tier 5: The Gotta Take a Point Guard Point Guards
Brandon Jennings
Chauncey Billups

Jennings assists are pretty low for a PG and his FG% is horrible. That’s not to say the guys above him are all Dead-eye Dan from Distanceville… but 15 shots at 39% is not going to do you any favors. The turnovers aren’t great either for someone who only averages 4.5 assists per game.

Billups on the other hand has proven himself time and time again. And the trade for CP3 (which included trading away Eric Gordon) coming on the heels of Billups’s signing leads me to believe that Billups will play a significant role on the Clippers team. Of course, that’s all just speculative fiction right now.

Tier 6: Upside Potential
Jrue Holiday
Ty Lawson

Both of these guys have significant upside. I hate to doubt Patrick’s magnificent statistical model, but I feel like the projections we have for Holiday are low and that he should end up with 14 points and 6+ assists, which I think would get him close to Top 50 territory.

Ty Lawson should be handling the pick axe for the Nuggets to start the season and while most people seem to be talking about Arron Afflalo, Lawson has just as much upside as his SG sidekick (or either of the new SG/SFs the Nuggets acquired). He’ll be on a short leash, though, since the Nuggets have the veteran Andre Miller to come in if things start to get out of control. But with 30+ minutes a game, Lawson could get up to 16 and 7 for points and assists even with Rudy Fernandez and Corey Brewer trying to prove they have a spot in the NBA.

Tier 6: Upside Downside
Jeff Teague
Mo Williams
Louis Williams
Tony Parker
Rodney Stuckey
Jose Calderon
Devin Harris

These are all guys who could blow up, or fizzle out. I am a Jeff Teague believer and I’m not the only one. But does that mean it’s going to happen? Tracy McGrady certainly makes it a bit harder to Teague to be the dominator he was in the playoffs last year.

Tier 7: Reaching for the Stars
Toney Douglas
Baron Davis
Kyrie Irving
Kemba Walker
Darren Collison
Ricky Rubio
Jameer Nelson
D.J. Augustin

A lot of people are probably going to reach for some of these guys. Toney Douglas might be money, but remember he’s playing with two guys who want to do nothing but score. Baron Davis might be out 8-10 weeks with a back injury (or he might be faking it to try to get to a team that’s over the cap – to which I say: someone just sign him to a minimum contract to make sure that he can’t go to the Lakers or Heat).

Darren Collison probably deserves to move up here, but I haven’t been able to redo the tiers with updated rankings. I will focus on doing that instead of writing another one of these dumb articles.

Tier 8: Pray to the Basketball Gods
Gilbert Arenas
Luke Ridnour
Mario Chalmers
Jordan Farmar

If you’re taking one of these guys and planning to actually play them, you might be in trouble.

Other Stuff Like This:

• First Month Report Card: Top 20 Point Guards in Fantasy Basketball (13)
• Updated Top 150 Player Rankings and Tiers – 12/23 (14)
• Updated Top 150 Player Rankings and Tiers – 12/22 (4)
• Fantasy Basketball Tiers: Power Forwards (9)
• Updated Top 150 Player Rankings and Tiers – 12/20 (2)
• Fantasy Basketball Player Tiers: Shooting Guards (10)
• Links for Fantasy Basketball Draft Weekend (2)

Tags: Derrick Rose, Fantasy Basketball Draft Guide 2011, Player Tiers, Point Guards, Russell Westbrook