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  • Day 4 of 124: And on the Fourth Day, The Lakers Rested

    Author Icon for Patrick

    Categorized as: Author: Patrick, Fantasy Basketball, Miami Heat
    Posted on: December 29th, 2011

    But the Miami Heat did not.

    Line of the Night: Dwyane Wade (0.05 WARP) may have hit the game wining shot with seconds left to give the Heat a win over Charlotte, but he was only 5-13 from the field on the night, finishing with 10 points. It was actually LeBron James (2.55 WARP) who did most of the heavy lifting by scoring 35 points (9-9 from the line), with 6 rebounds, 7 assists, 3 steals and 2 blocks on the night.

    Hopefully it’s not a trend stat of the day: Neither James or Wade has even attempted a three so far this season.

    Honorable Mentions: Boris Diaw (1.32), who I left off the daily rundown the other day and then called fat in the comments, almost triple-doubled again against the Heat with 16 points, 16 rebounds, and 8 assists in 39 minutes on the court. So that’s two games starting at center for Diaw, two near triple-doubles. Diaw will eventually run into trouble against some of the better centers in the league (no offense to Joel Anthony), but he is proving he can work at the position. Diaw has always been a triple-double threat when he’s motivated, so enjoy the ride as long as it lasts if you own him.

    Nene Hilario (2.15) led the Nuggets with 25 points on 10-13 shooting, adding 7 rebounds, 3 steals and 2 blocks in a 117-100 rout over the Jazz. Says Ty Lawson about the gentle giant, “He’s so unselfish sometimes we have to say, Nene, go the basket, get a bucket.” Well done, Ty Lawson, well done.

    I know I was afraid to pull the trigger on a mid-30′s Manu Ginobili in drafts this season, but he’s come out of the gates hot so far this season. Manu (2.14) scored 24 points in the Spurs latest win, adding 5 threes and 6 assists in only 27 minutes on the court. Blake Griffin (0.90) had a 28 and 9 to lead the Clips.

    On a night that Russell Westbrook (-0.91) was 0-13 from the floor (the condensed season, it’s FANtastic ), Kevin Durant (1.96) was still good enough to lead the Thunder to their third straight win with 32 points (going 10-11 from the line), adding 8 rebounds and 2 blocks. Durant did get a little help from the bearded wonder James Harden (1.14) who scored 20.

    Andre Iguodala (1.84) helped the Sixers rout the Suns with 15 points 6 assists, 4 steals and 3 threes. Sixers’ center Spencer Hawes (0.88) even showed up again with 9 points, 11 boards and a couple blocked shots in 26 minutes. More on the Suns’ atrociousness below.

    And finally, Jarrett Jack (1.53) fulfilled your 6th round draft expectations by scoring 21 points with 9 assists and adding a couple blocks against a completely gassed Boston Celtics team.

    ***

    Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Brandon Rush (1.42) – currently available in 85% of Yahoo leagues – scored 19 points off the bench for the Warriors, adding 6 rebounds, 2 steals and 2 blocks in only 26 minutes.

    With Stephen Curry sitting this one out with his ankle injury, Ishmael Smith (0.60) got the start at PG and had a decent game with 11 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists in 29 minutes. Interestingly Rush got no bump in minutes with Curry out and seems locked into the 25-26 minute a game range. That’s going to make him a marginal fantasy guy in normal leagues and probably only worth adding in deep ones. Smith would be worth an add if Curry is out an extended period of time, but he’s currently day-to-day and should be back for the Warriors next game this weekend.

    Pick Up Lines: Detroit rookie Brandon Knight (1.41) scored 23 points by shooting 10-13 from the field in a loss to the Cavs. His 29 minutes in this game was a big bump from the 16 he saw in the Pistons first game, so it could have been Pistons coach Lawrence Frank riding the hot hand. I’d want to see Knight do it again before I’d give him my commitment ring.

    It’s time to get your James Johnson (1.36) on. He’s available in nearly 90% of leagues at the moment if you’re in need of a defensive stat stuffer. He saw 29 minutes off the bench for Toronto in this game and finished with 6 points, 8 rebounds, 6 steals! and 2 blocks against the Pacers. He’s not going to score points, but the rebounds, steals and blocks are legit.

    Another strong line for Marvin Williams (1.21), who scored 17 points and grabbed 8 rebounds in a win over Washington. The biggest difference between Williams this season and in seasons past (other than the fact that he’s rebounding) is that’s he’s getting to the line A LOT. In two games so far, Williams has been to the line 17 times, compared to an average of only 2.7 a game last season. Maybe it’s the back surgery? Has he just been playing old man ball the past few years?

    I had Carl Landry (1.13) pegged as a light sleeper going into the year and so far so good. Landry had 20 points (going 6-9 from the field, 8-8 from the line) and 11 rebounds in a start against the Celtics. He’s not much more than a points/boards guy, but he’s a clear starter for the Hornets and the minutes will be there for him all year.

    Keep an eye on the Daniel Gibson (1.08)/Anthony Parker (-0.17) battle for minutes. Parker is the starter, but Gibson is winning the battle by getting more run and by bringing home lines like last night’s 8 points, 6 boards, 2 steals and a block in 29 minutes. Parker meanwhile did little on the court in 20 minutes.

    Also keep an eye on Evan Turner (0.70), who after two good games in a row (last night he finished with 12 points and 7 boards in 29 minutes), could be on track to win the starting job away from Jodie Meeks eventually.

    Deep Leagues: Marco Belinelli (0.59) has averaged 33 minutes in two games for the Hornets this season and is worth a look in deeper leagues. So is D.J. White (0.53), starting PF for the Bobcats who had 11 boards against the Heat.

    Biggest Loser: The ugliness of the shorted season has arrived! In addition to Russell Westbrook’s 0-13 shooting night, Steve Nash (-1.55) shot 2-11 from the floor and finished with an incredibly bad 0 rebounds, 1 assist and 6 turnovers in 17 minutes. When was the last time Nash had 1 assist in a game? I’m too lazy to look it up.

    Carmelo Anthony (-0.57) was 3-13 from the floor, Andray Blatche (-1.01) shot 2-13 from the field for the Wiz, while Austin Daye (-0.72) had the classic 0 point, 0 rebound, 0 assist line while shooting 0-5 from the field. Get ready for a whole season of this everyone!

    ***

    Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.

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    • JeffFromTallahassee

      Hey, I drafted my first team a few days ago, and I had to miss the draft so it autopicked based on my rankings and here is how my team came out (10 Team H2H 9 Cat):

      LeBron James
      Lamarcus Aldridge
      Joe Johnson
      Manu Ginobli
      Dorrell Wright
      David West
      Luis Scola
      Marcus Thornton
      Channing Frye
      Rodney Stuckey
      Aaron Affalo
      Amir Johnson
      Jared Dudley
      Paul George

      So, I’m happy with a lot of the players, but I DON’T like that it drafted Stuckey as my starting PG. My question is how do you think my team stacks up and what are its weaknesses. Also would you drop anyone for Brandon Rush, Spencer Hawes, James Johnson, or Lou Williams?

    • Reader and Fan: Mistah Yang

      in a 14 team H2H 9 Category league, is it too much to give…

      Rudy Gay, Tyreke Evans, and DeMarcus Cousins 

      for….

      Kevin Durant, and Brook Lopez? 

      (He originally wanted Gay, Wall, and Bogut) 

    • http://twitter.com/JLeeishere Jason Lee

      james johnson or varejao? 

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      A pretty nice team considering you went able to live draft it. Anytime you can build around LeBron, it makes things that much easier.

      I ran your team through the projections and, no surprise, your big weakness is assists. But it’s probably not as bad as you think. Stuckey is not a traditional PG for sure (LeBron is actually your best assist man), but Manu and JJ have decent assists for an SG, so they help a bit.

      But the good news is your team is strong just about everywhere else. Percentages come out great, your also good in points, TOs and your strongest category is probably threes (seeing as you have Frye as a PF/C).

      A little bit of a surprise is that your kind a toss-up to slightly below average in rebounds and blocks. You’ve got a lot of big men, but other than maybe Aldridge, none of them are what you’d call premier rebounders/shot blockers. If you play someone like Amir I think you can be about average in those cats, but it’s probably not what your were expecting.

      Given that your so strong in threes, you could certainly deal from a position of strength there, maybe flip Fyre for a more traditional big, or Jared Dudley if he blows up. I’m really not a fan of JJ, I’d personal try to move him for a PG or big. I think if you can get a nice PG and maybe one more rebounder, your team will be a juggernaut.

      I think Spencer Hawes or James Johnson would be a nice fit for your team, but I don’t exactly see anyone I’d drop for them at the moment. Possibly Dudley if he doesn’t pick up his game soon.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      It depends on A) when do you think Brook Lopez is going to be back and B) who is available to pick up in free agency after the trade. I’d love to have KD on my team, but if Lopez misses the majority of the season your basically making a 3 for 1 deal in a 14 team league that probably doesn’t have a lot of guys available as free agents.

      Still, I might do it… mostly because I love Durant.

      Anyone else have an opinion?

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      I’d rather have Varejao

    • slick

      should i drop norris cole for jeremy pargo 14 team 9cat league

    • Reader and Fan: Mistah Yang

      I agree that it depends on when Brook Lopez is coming back AND if he can produce. I currently have Lebron on my team so… Durant + Lebron would be crazy. 

      Notable Free Agents: Daye, Rudy Fernandez, Kenneth Faried, Rodrigue Beaubois, JJ Barea, Taj Gibson, Mario Chalmers, Brandon McKnight (Probably will get waiver picked though) … yeah it looks ugly now that I look at it. 

      If the trade goes through my team in a 14 Team H2H League would look like…  

      PG: John Wall
      SG: Arron Afflalo
      G: Jeff Teague
      SF: Kevin Durant 
      PF: Lebron James
      F: Marvin Williams
      C: Andrew Bogut
      C: Ed Davis
      Util: Landry Fields
      Util: Gordon Hayward
      Bench: Jordan Crawford
      Bench: Brook Lopez
      Bench: Empty 

      I think either way, I can see the glass half full. 

    • Reader and Fan: Mistah Yang

      I also think Varejao. Seems like a double double threat every night. 

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      LeBron and Durant? Now I think your obligated to make that trade just to see what happens. You’ll be like the fantasy version of the Miami Heat.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Mike Conley is expected to miss the next two or so games with that ankle injury, giving Pargo a couple starts. So as long as you’ll be able to get Pargo in your lineup for those games, I’d make that move. Micromanaging FTW!

      Cole is a fun player, but like Nels said the other day, he’s going to have a tough time getting his in that rotation.

    • zee

      hey guys new reader here, question about your overall rankings for this season, why is deron williams not considered a top tier point guard, and instead is projected to be drafted in 2nd round?
      in all the leagues i’ve played in, he has always been considered a top 10 pick, right up there with westbrook and rose because of his elite assists totals, threes, steals, and scoring?

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Hi zee, thanks for the question. Going into the year, we projected player stats for the 2011-12 season using a pretty elaborate system that looked at past player performance, player comps going back to 1990, injury profiles, and projected minutes.

      Using that system, we projected that Deron Williams would average 20 points and 10 assists this season with threes, steals and boards pretty much in line with his career averages. The system did think that his FG% would drop this season to the 42-43% range. He also gets dinged a bit in our rankings compared to Rose and Westbrook due to his injury history over the past few seasons. So, overall we were probably slightly more pessimistic than most about Williams’ scoring and FG% numbers this season, as well as his health.

      That being said, we still had Williams as our 5th ranked PG overall, which I would consider pretty elite. He has an ADP on Yahoo of 14, which is slightly higher than us, but still a second rounder in most leagues. So we might not have absolutely loved Williams this year, but at least we didn’t give him the Jrue Holiday treatment or anything.

      I will say that the last time we projected Williams was before the Lopez injury, so you could make an argument that his scoring might go up a little, but the rest of the stats are in line with what I expect from him this season.