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  • Day 6 of 124: Five More Years!

    Author Icon for Nels

    Categorized as: Author: Nels, Chicago Bulls, Fantasy Basketball
    Posted on: December 31st, 2011

    or: The $94 Million Dollar Man

    For the first time in a long time (and not just because of the lockout) I woke up the morning after watching a basketball game and wanted to watch the whole thing again. Not just 10 seconds of Kevin Durant’s buzzer-beater. I want to see Chris Paul’s ball-handling, Blake Griffin’s power moves and huge dunks, the Bulls clutch three-pointers, and of course…

    Line of the Night: Derrick Rose‘s (2.93) 29 points (3 threes, 10-11 from the line), 8 rebounds, and 16 assists. I had to stay up to midnight on the night before New Year’s Eve to see the whole thing, but it was totally worth it. If you didn’t see that Clippers-Bulls game, I would highly recommend it as some of the most entertaining basketball I’ve seen in so long I can’t even remember. I could probably remember if I tried, but my brain is so clogged with the images of last night and I don’t want to let them go. Note also, with respect to fantasy basketball, that Rose had a WARP of 2.93. That means if you were in a daily league, he would win you almost three categories (probably FT%, Assists, and the 0.93 for Points) by himself. Unfortunately, that only brings him up to #25 on the season according to the Player Rater, but it is the highest LotN score so far this year.

    Honorable Mentions: Another near triple-double last night for LeBron James (2.50) with 34 points (16-26 from the field), 8 rebounds, 10 assists, and 4 steals as Miami managed to hold off Minnesota. Kevin Love only had 25 points and 12 rebounds, so he didn’t quite make the Honorable Mentions. (Yes, that was supposed to be sarcastic)

    Marc Gasol (2.32) moved to #9 on the Player Rater (take that big brother!) with 20 points (6-8 from the field), 8 rebounds, 3 steals, and 5 blocks. Good thing, cause I’m going against Serge Ibaka this week in the GMTR Keeper League and I need all the blocks I can get. (Bynum is coming back today, right???)

    That didn’t take long. Ryan Anderson (2.24) is up to 81% owned, and he showed again last night why he’s a must add in all leagues with 23 points (5 threes), 8 rebounds, and 2 blocks.

    Detroit big man Greg Monroe (1.88) makes his first appearance (I believe) in the Honorable Mentions with 22 points (9-12 from the field, 4-4 from the line), 9 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals. I’d like to see someone who’s 6′ 11″ block a shot, y’know, EVER… but it’s only been three games, so maybe he’s still warming up his blocking muscles.

    Another guy who’s getting a lot of brotherly love (see what I did there?) is Spencer Hawes (1.79), who is up to 58% owned. Hawes had 15 points (7-9 from the field), 13 rebounds, and 3 blocks for the 76ers. He was even picked up in my work league, which is good cause there’s only like four people who pay attention in there.

    Joakim Noah (1.72) joins Derrick Rose with a subtle but powerful performance, ending with 19 points (5-7 from the field, 9-10 from the line), 8 rebounds, and 4 assists. So, next time someone says something about someone’s free throw form, just point them to Jo No and say “It’s all in the head.” That’s right, Dwight. I’m looking at you.

    I think D-Rose and Chris Paul (1.67) played the exact same amount of minutes because they shadowed each other like wraiths all game. Paul ended up with a good game for him, one that would have won kudos on any other night: 15 points, 14 assists, and 4 steals.

    Deron Williams (1.61) owners can all breathe a sigh of relief as the PG finally shot better than 36% from the field. He went 9-18 for 23 points (also 4-4 from the line), 6 assists, and 2 steals. Not 1st/2nd round quality, but maybe he’s got his game back on track now. And that’s why you should give players a few games instead of making rash judgements.

    Rounding things out was Zach Randolph (1.38) with a very nice 23 points (11-14 from the field), 9 rebounds, and 3 steals.

    ***

    Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Are you sitting down? Okay then. Jermaine O’Neal (1.51) of the Boston Celtics played 28.5 minutes and ended up with 19 points (7-9 from the field, 5-5 from the line), 7 rebounds, and 2 blocks. He’s only 6% owned; probably because everyone had written him off. But, I guess when your options are Kevin Garnett (who doesn’t like playing Center), Brandon Bass (who’s only 6′ 8″) and someone named Greg Stiemsma (how do you pronounce that?) then Jermain O’Neal, as old and rickety as he is, has to give you 22 minutes a game. I wouldn’t rush out to grab him, but if he gets up around 28 minutes for another couple games and continued to get some decent points, rebounds and blocks, then he’s definitely worth considering.

    Pick Up Lines: MarShon Brooks played 28 minutes, and Anthony Morrow got 25, but it was Sundiata Gaines (1.02) who got the start, playing close to 28 minutes, and scoring 10 points, dishing 5 assists, and grabbing 2 steals. Brooks and Morrow clearly stole some time from starting SF Damion James, so until the SG/SF situation in New Jersey is sorted out, I’d leaves Gaines down at his 2% ownership level.

    Mehmet Okur (0.93) on the other hand, is a New Jersey Net who should be caught up immediately and ridden hard until Brook Lopez can jump back into the sea. (I know, that one didn’t work, but too bad) Okur had 15 points (3 threes, 6-9 from the field), and 5 rebounds and if you’re in a league that doesn’t have Erik in it, then he might still be available. It’s hard for me to believe that Erik is in 16% of all fantasy basketball leagues, but that is the number that Okur is owned in, so it must be true.

    It’s like a cavalcade of Nets! (Yes, that’s different than a cavalry of them, though I’m sure they come from the same Latin base) MarShon Brooks (0.90) was out there long enough to score 21 points (8-13 from the field, 4-4 from the line), and grab 5 rebounds. If you’re in a deep league, he’s probably worth a flier. See how long you can ride him. But with the 4 guys on NJ cycling through the SG and SF positions, I can’t see consistent value from any of them until one starts getting 28+ minutes on a consistent basis.

    I just picked up Derrick Favors (0.88) in my work league (told you those guys don’t pay attention; of course, they also don’t have a fantasy basketball blog). Last night he scored 20 points (10-16 from the field), and grabbed 11 rebounds, but more significant in my mind was he got 38 minutes of playing time because a) Al Jefferson was out with an inflamed right ankle, and b) this was the first game in which the Jazz haven’t gotten down big in the second quarter. Favors is 34% owned, which is pretty good, but Al Jefferson has only played 82 games in 2 of his 7 seasons. Combine that with the fact that the Jazz played 13 guys in their previous game against the Nuggets, and to me this seems like a situation that once it settles down, will allow Favors to get 24-28 minutes per game.

    Biggest Loser: Rookie Kemba Walker (-1.01) continued to play like a rookie with 2 points, 1 rebound, and 4 assists while going 1-9 from the field. He’s shooting 35.7% from the field for the season with 1.3 turnovers in only 19 minutes. Perhaps he’ll get his pro ball legs under him, but he’s certainly not doing what the 66% of owners who drafted him had hoped to see.

    Other notables: Guess who’s a gunner? Nick Young (-0.95). Young was 1-10 from the field for 3 points. Keep shooting Nick. We know you’ll make a bunch of shots eventually. Lamar Odom (-0.90) is part of another positional mess, akin to the one the Nets and Jazz are struggling with. Too many players, not enough minutes. Odom played only 11 minutes for the Mavs last night and ended with 3 points (0-3 from the floor), and 4 rebounds. Luis Scola (-0.81) played limited minutes as the Rockets got blown out, but his minimal scoring and rebounding (4 points, 4 rebounds) certainly didn’t help matters.

    ***

    Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.

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    • Reader and Fan: Mistah Yang

      awww no love for Jeff Teague?

    • BradM

      Great call on Ryan Anderson early this week, loving the production there

    • Gregg

      Stiemsma is pronounced Steams-Ma. He is the greatest.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Nice game indeed for Teague, who had the 18th best line of yesterday with his 22 points on 9-12 shooting. I think Nels was just trying to spare everyone a 10,000 word recap of what went down yesterday, especially when 5,000 of it would have went to waxing about D-Rose.

      Teague seemed like one of those quiet sleepers going into the year, but so far after 3 games he’s breaking out in a big way with some really nice point/assist/steal/three numbers so far. Good job to anyone who drafted him this season.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      +1 for the GMTR stat projections, which loved Anderson this season! I also feel the need to mention that the projections hated Al Jefferson.

    • Anonymous

      Great write-up as usual…surprised Dwight’s 24 rebounds didn’t get a mention here

    • Alex

      How bout Rubio? 12 12ast 6reb, he could be like a poor mans jason kidd this year?

    • http://nelswadycki.com nelswadycki

      For the guys that are probably already owned in most leagues, we try to go with just the Top 8-9 performances for a given night. Otherwise, as Patrick said, we could go on forever writing about every single player… I’m sure that would get a bit boring… Well, probably not. But it might take 24 hours to do and then the data would be stale.

    • http://nelswadycki.com nelswadycki

      As I said above, we try to mention the Top 8-9 performances. Not in individual categories, but guys who dominate across the board. Dwight may have had 24 rebounds, but he also shot only 44% from the field (on 16 attempts) and 43% from the line (on 14 attempts). He did have 4 blocks and end up with 20 points, but when you can get 20 points and 5 blocks from Marc Gasol while also increasing your FG% and FT%, then I’ll take the 8 rebounds vs. Dwight’s 24 plus sacrificing 2 other categories.

    • http://nelswadycki.com nelswadycki

      He could be a rich man’s Jason Kidd if he continues shooting 61% like he has so far. That line was good for #30 on the night, which is pretty good considering it was out of 200+ players out there. Rubio is already owned in 67% of leagues, though, so if he’s still available in yours, you probably want to grab him. He’s at #70 on the Player Rater right now, which means he should definitely be on a roster in any league with even as few as 8 teams.

    • http://nelswadycki.com nelswadycki

      Of course a guy named Gregg would like another guy named Greg. If there was a player named Nels, he’s probably be my favorite player.

    • Reader and Fan: Mistah Yang

      Totally agree with that, was just looking to pull some love for Teague-r

    • Reader and Fan: Mistah Yang

      In a 14 team H2H 9 Category league, I just traded…

      Tyreke Evans, Demarcus Cousins, Landry Fields

      for

      Ty Lawson and Roy Hibbert 

      Reasoning: I already had Wall on my team and with both Evans and Cousins, it felt like I would be almost punting both %s all year round. I think Lawson can make up enough steals to hold in the void left by Evans and Cousins while Hibbert fills in the blocks? 

      Side Trade in the works: Wall, Lawson, and Ed Davis for Westbrook, Irving. What do you think? (Will also be waivering Brook Lopez and attempting to pick up Derrick Williams, Fredette) 

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      If you are able to turn Tyreke Evans, John Wall, Demarcus Cousins, and Landry Fields into Russell Westbrook, Roy Hibbert  and Kyrie Irving, that’s a win in my book. It hurts to lose Wall’s assists, but Westbrook’s shot is eventually going to start falling and he’ll be the best player in that deal. So, Westbrook > Evans, Irving Cousins. And two out of three ain’t bad.

    • Reader and Fan: Mistah Yang

      Thanks, I guess you didn’t think that Lawson for Tyreke is a slight upgrade. There are just a couple of big things that worry me for Tyreke. 1) His past… injury? 2) Sacramento’s ball movement. 3) His noticeable drop in stats whenever he’s fatigued (back to back games) Anyhow, thanks for the consistent advice. Always love waking up and seeing a new (or a couple of new) articles to read over. 

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      No, I do indeed think Lawson is an upgrade as my latest article will demonstrate. i just took the next step since you asked about the trade you currently had in the works. But yeah, I’d much rather have Lawson right now than Evans.

      http://givemetherock.com/2012/01/01/cold-as-ice-seven-players-off-to-slow-starts/