Cold As Ice: Seven Players Off to Slow Starts

Categorized as: Author: Patrick, Fantasy Basketball
Posted on: January 1st, 2012

We took a look at the high flyers to start the season, now it’s time to look at flip side of that – players starting off the season ice cold and whether they can turn things around. Current ranks come from the GMTR player rater.

Russell Westbrook (Projected Rank: 6 / Current Rank: 133): There’s been a lot of concern over Westbrook’s cold start to the season as well as inability to play nice with teammate Kevin Durant. So far, Westbrook’s shooting has been awful, his scoring and assists are way down and he’s turning the ball over an insane 5.4 times a game (compared to 5.2 assists). It also didn’t help that Westbrook had one of the worst games of any player this season – a 0-13 shooting performance against the Grizzlies on December 28.

Can He Turn it Around? Yes. While he’s still only shooting 38% from the floor this season, Westbrook has already started to right the ship. Despite playing only 25 minutes in an easy win over the Suns yesterday, Westbrook shot 8-14 from the floor and finished with 18 points and a couple steals. Like Kobe and Shaq, Westbrook and KD will make it work… until it all explodes and Westbrook is traded.

Recommendation: Buy low

***

Josh Smith (Projected: 15 / Current: 171): Smith is shooting 38% from the floor and 55% from the line so far this season and his stats are down across the board.

Can He Turn it Around? Yes, eventually. The Hawks have one of the more brutal schedules to start the year. Nine games in 12 days, with seven of their first 11 on the road. Yesterday’s 95-84 loss to the Rockets is an indication that they are wearing down a bit already. But Smith is not going to shoot 38% on the season, so the scoring numbers will eventually increase. And take out that one horrible game which he only played 17 minutes in and his numbers look a little more Josh Smith-like.

Recommendation: Hold

Tyreke Evans (Projected: 39 / Current: 238): After an epic rookie season, Evan struggled through a sophomore season full of injuries. Surprisingly, he’s been even worse this year, averaging 14 points and only 2.8 assists per game and getting called out by Coach Paul Westphal after the preseason opener for playing sluggishly.

Can He Turn it Around? I’m a little worried about this one. People seem to be grasping for reasons why Evans has started the season off slowly. Maybe it’s simply that we set our expectations too high for him after his amazing rookie season. For now, Evans problems remain that he’s a point guard who doesn’t get assists and possibly doesn’t even know or care what’s going on in the offense. The money is on Paul Westphal to be the first coach fired this season. Until then, the Kings are going to be a mess.

Recommendation: Sell

Steve Nash (Projected: 44 / Current: 218): The season has not started well for the 37 year old Nash. Four games in and Nash is “only” averaging 7.8 assists per game. But more troubling is that he’s shooting 31% from the field and averaging 8 points a game. The obligatory “is he done” articles have even starting cropping up already.

Can He Turn it Around? Yes. Nash has had a couple really bad looking games so far this year (especially that 1 assist game against the Sixers), but he did dish out 12 assists per in two out of the Suns other 4 games. I’d be a little worried that the aging Nash won’t be able to bring his “A” game every night during this condensed season, but once his shot comes back, we should get at least 90-95% of the Steve Nash we expected this season.

Recommendation: Buy low

Tim Duncan (Projected: 59 / Current: 176): While it’s not a surprise that Duncan is off to a cold start, we didn’t expect him to be this bad. I’m talking 9 points and 6 rebounds in 22 minutes a game bad; or getting benched in the Spurs third game bad; or shooting 34% from the field bad. That’s bad.

Can He Turn it Around? Yes. The Spurs have been involved in a few blowouts already this year, so Duncan has been getting plenty of rest to start the season. Plus, the 34% shooting isn’t going to continue. While it’s tough to get excited about 12 points and 9 boards, Duncan’s latest game was his best of the season so far. It is likely going to be a bit of a rough ride this season for Duncan owners, but he’s still worth owning in all fantasy formats.

Recommendation: Buy low

Tony Allen (Projected: 61 / Current: 286): In fairness, I don’t think Nels or Erik wanted anything to do with Tony Allen this year. So it really is on me for actually trusting Allen enough to rank him that highly going into the year. I know, Tony Allen! Yes, he ended last season on a hot streak as the Grizzlies starting SG, averaging 13 points and 2 steals a game post all-star break. This year Allen is still the team’s starter, but is only averaging 20 minutes a game to go along with 5 points and 1.7 steals.

Can He Turn it Around? Not to the level I ranked him at. The big problem is that Memphis has a logjam at the wing right now with O.J. Mayo, Quincy Pondexter, Sam Young and Allen. Unless Mayo gets traded, it’s going to really tough for him to carve out consistent minutes and fantasy value. At 20-something minutes a game, I think Allen can be a steals specialist in deep leagues, but that’s a far cry from having him ranked in the top 75.

Recommendation: Cut in normal leagues, hold in deep leagues.

Lamar Odom (Projected: 68 / Current: 305): You can’t sum up Odom’s situation any better than this LA Times article, “Lamar Odom goes from sixth man to nowhere man.” Odom is getting a measly 19 minutes a game so far with his new team (down from 32 with the Lakers last season) and is averaging 4 points and 4 rebounds a game. In the Mavs most recent game, Odom played 12 minutes off the bench and scored 3 points.

Can He Turn it Around? Sort of. Odom is one of those guys who came into the season out of shape (probably because he was busy working on his reality television empire). According to Coach Rick Carlisle, Odom is on an “action plan” designed to improve his conditioning. That’s one reason why his minutes have been limited so far. Odom should get more run once he gets into game shape, but he’s still going to find minutes harder to come by behind Dirk than he did on the Lakers.

Recommendation: Hold for Now.

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Tags: Lamar Odom, Russell Westbrook, Steve Nash, Tim Duncan, Tony Allen, Tyreke Evans

zee

this article and the other “hot” players article are great, keep em coming
Reader and Fan: Mistah Yang

… So I don’t really know how this happened, its sort of a blur for me but basically I just traded Gay, Bogut, Hibbert for Durant and Hansbrough. I think I just destroyed my team, especially in a 14 team H2H league…

Current Team: (“Trade 80% done”)
PG: John Wall (“Russel Westbrook”)
SG: Arron Afflalo
G: Ty Lawson (“Kyrie Irving”)
SF: Kevin Durant
PF: Lebron James
F: Tyler Hansbrough
C: Ed Davis
C: N/A
Util: Jeff Teague
Util: Gordon Hayward
Bench: Marvin Williams (“Part of Trade”)
Bench: N/A
Bench: N/A

I guess I’m just picking up massive amounts of Centers right…? Ughh… please tell me its not as bad as it looks. The only positive I can think of is that if there is anytime you want your bench cleaned out, its the beginning of the season.
zee

what do you think of deron williams? Im really concerned about his REALLY low avgs of 36% FG, ~4.5 TOs, 5.8 assists, 16.5 pts. I really want to trade him but at the same time he’s doing badly, so I’m going to get less value than I drafted him for. What should I do?
Reader and Fan: Mistah Yang

P.S. If I’m going down, I’m going down in style. Do you happen to have an epic team name involving Durant and Lebron that you’ve always wanted to try? I’m trying to think of a couple but all I can think of is “Lebrontula” … … … … yeah that was my reaction too.
http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

D-Will probably won’t finish the season with those numbers, BUT he won’t likely be rewarding guys who drafted him with late-first-round to early-second-round values. There’s simply too much pressure on him in Jersey to do everything. Unless the Nets find someone else for their opponents to bother defending, Deron will have to force a lot of shots and fail to complete many passes. Wait for a string of good games, which will still likely come, then trade him off to someone in your league who’s a fan or who can give you a “lesser” (less popular) PG + 1.
http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

Ouch! Your team, while appearing to be gutted (which it actually is) can still function. We’re still early into the season and there are still some diamonds in the rough who can be snagged of the FA pool. Watch it like a hawk. You can’t afford to be too picky, get the “best value” you can. It’s safe to say that you’re punting blocks from this point forward, so pick-up and trade accordingly.
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

I love it. You’ve got the 2 best players in the NBA in a 14 team league – that’s going to go a long way. Just work the free agents hard – grab a guy like JJ Hickson immediately, try out D.J. White, pay attention when guys get injured and grab their backups, etc – and you’ll be able to patch up the gaping holes in your team. Still, I think this a great experiment in team building. Let us know how it works.
http://nelswadycki.com nelswadycki

Wow. If you can pick up Westbrook in addition to those guys you’ll have the fantasy team of all fantasy teams. I like the strategy/approach and will be very interested to see how it turns out.

As for guys, take a look at Hakim Warrick. He’s playing well right now. Only eligible at PF right now, though. Hmmmm… Ryan Anderson probably isn’t available, but who knows. He could really help out at Center.

As for the rest of the season, you’re definitely going to have to hawk the waiver wire like Erik said. Decent big men are a lot easier to pick up as free agents, so I think getting Durant and LeBron together for guys like Hibbert and Bogut is a good way to go. I mean, look at the player rater… right now James is #1 with 1.82 and Durant is #2 with 1.47. Next is Manu Ginobili with 1.38, and you know he’s not sticking around in the Top 3. Between James and Durant you should win PTS, with high FGP and FTP and pretty nice head start in REB, AST, STL and even BLK.
http://nelswadycki.com nelswadycki

I like LeBrontula, but I’m a fan of puns, so perhaps my sense of humor is not the best judge. If you start winning 7-2 every week, you could go with something as simple as Destroyer of Worlds.
Reader and Fan: Mistah Yang

Whew, thanks for all the responses. Definitely going to have to watch the waiverwire really closely. I’ll let you know how this turns out (although there have been some complaints to the commissioner but usually as long as its not collusion, the league is fine with it) JJ Hickson was drafted (14 team 14 players = 196 players drafted) but I’ll definitely scour the wire for even temporary pit stops (Hakim Warrick + DJ White def on my list)

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Cold As Ice: Seven Players Off to Slow Starts

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