Gonna Fly Now: Eight Players Off to Hot Starts

Categorized as: Fantasy Basketball
Posted on: January 1st, 2012

With the first week of the season in the books, it’s time to look at a few of the week’s unexpected high flyers and to see if they can keep up their pace for the rest of the season. Current ranks come from the GMTR player rater.

Spencer Hawes (Projected Rank: 199 / Current Rank: 9): Hawes has been one of the big fantasy surprises to start the year. We had him projected as a barely passable backup center after averaging 7 points and 6 boards last season on a Sixers’ team that remains relatively unchanged this year. Instead, he’s averaged 12 points, 12.5 boards, 4 assists and 1.8 blocks and seen his minutes jump to 33 a game from last season’s 21.

Can He Maintain? No. While Hawes has always been a good per minute rebounder and shot blocker, he’s playing way over his head in other areas at the moment. For starters, he’s a career 47% shooter who is currently shooting 68% from the floor. That 9 assist game was also an anomaly. Given that his defense isn’t great, Hawes minutes are bound to decline once his offense starts to cool off and Elton Brand starts to heat up.

Recommendation: Sell

***

Ryan Anderson (Projected: 123 / Current: 8 ): We should have listened to the projections. The straight numbers that the GMTR projection system split out this year had Anderson as a top 75 player after Brandon Bass signed with the Celtics. Instead, Nels, Erik and I tempered our expectations of Anderson a bit and moved him down our personal rankings because we expected another time share with Glen Davis.

Can He Maintain? Yes. He’s not going to be a top 10 player and his minutes will eventually decline once Glen Davis starts playing like he belongs in the NBA again, but Anderson is the rare big with shooting guard-like three point range. At 30 minutes a game this season, Anderson could certainly finish the year averaging well over 2 threes, 7 boards and a block a game.

Recommendation: Hold

Boris Diaw (Projected: 97 / Current: 18): Three games, three great performances from the Bobcats’ newest 6-8 center. Diaw is averaging an insane 12 points, 11 rebounds, 8 boards and a block a game and is helping Charlotte lead the league in rebounding?

Can He Maintain? Sort of. The Bobcats are bereft of talent this season and Diaw is going to get plenty of run whether or not the team ever finds a traditional center. His rebounding is probably legit (although inflated at the moment) because of the position switch, but the assists are going to drop. He’s shown in the past he’s a triple-double threat as long as he’s stays motivated. But if I know Diaw, there will be stretches of the season where he coasts through games and drives fantasy owners crazy.

Recommendation: Hold

Marvin Williams (Projected: 139 / Current: 24): Williams is the Jason Voorhees of fantasy basketball. He’s left for dead over and over and over again, and yet still keeps finding a way to come back for more every year. Well, this season Williams is back with a vengeance and averaging 13 points, 7 boards and nearly 1.3 steals and 1.5 threes a game while getting only 25 minutes of run.

Can He Maintain? Hell no. Williams had back surgery during the off season and supposedly feels better than he’s had in a while, so I’ll give him that. But nothing in his history suggests that the threes or steals or the fact that he is getting to the line over 5 times a game is for real. In fact, we’ve already started to see the drop. In the Hawks fourth game of the year, Williams had a much more pedestrian 9 points and 4 boards.

Recommendation: Sell if you can

Andre Miller (Projected: 217 / Current: 39): The 35 year old Miller has averaged 13 points and over 7 assists a game off the bench as the third guard for the Nuggets.

Can He Maintain? Sort of. Denver’s first three games were high scoring/blowout affairs – inflating the value of a lot of Nuggets players over the first week of the season. But in last night’s 92-89 loss to the Lakers, Miller had a more realistic 13 points and 4 assists in 33 minutes. Overall, the minutes should be there for Miller off the bench, especially since it looks like Rudy Fernandez could be a bust for the team. The assists seem unrealistically high even given his history, but the rest of his game should hold steady.

Recommendation: Hold.

Jonas Jerebko (Projected: 261 / Current: 55): Filling in for a suspended Charlie Villanueva, the 24-year old Jerebko has started 4 games for the Pistons and averaged 14 points and 7 boards a game, capped off by last night’s huge 20 and 12 double-double against the Pacers.

Can He Maintain? No. Don’t get me wrong, I’d like Jerebko in a different situation. He averaged 9 points and 6 boards a game two years ago as a rookie and would easily improve upon that if he got the run. However, Charlie Villanueva lurks quietly in the background waiting to ruin his party. Villanueva was back in uniform for the Pistons after serving a suspension (although he did not play). Even if Jerebko retains the starting job, Villanueva will eventually cut into his minutes and fantasy value enough that it will make Jerebko not worth owning in 12 man leagues.

Recommendation: Sell

Gerald Henderson (Projected: 187 / Current: 57): Picking up where he left off last season, the third year guard has averaged 16 points and 6 assists in 38 minutes a game as the Bobcats starting shooting guard.

Can He Maintain? Mostly. As with Diaw, Henderson should be in line for a lot of run with the Bobcats this season (his backup is Matt Carroll) and he should be able to get off 14-15 shots a game in that starting lineup. He’s not going to provide too much other than points, however, giving him limited fantasy value in the long run.

Recommendation: Sell if you can get value, otherwise hold

Brandon Rush (Projected: 158 / Current: 66): One part surprise, one part thorn in the side of Dorell Wright owners, Rush has averaged 10 points, 1.3 threes and 1.3 steals and nearly 2 blocks a game in four games for the Warriors.

Can He Maintain? Not quite. The blocks are unrealistically high and propping up his value on the rater right now. Plus, he’ll be inconsistent coming off the bench for the Warriors (witness last night’s 1-6 shooting, 4 point performance). But for those of you in deep leagues, Rush will get some points, threes and steals with some decent run as the team’s sixth man. And if Stephen Curry were to go down for an extended period of time with that ankle, Rush could be even better.

Recommendation: Worth holding in deep leagues

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Tags: Andre Miller, Boris Diaw, Brandon Rush, Jonas Jerebko, Marvin Williams, Ryan Anderson, Spencer Hawes