Right now, you lose a lot in that trade. If you look at our projections, all 4 of those guys are in the Top 25, so it’s not like any of them are playing way over their head and you’re getting good value on one side or the other.

Smith and Jefferson are pretty equal, especially since you already have Howard to sink your FT%. Deron Williams is a slight upgrade over Iguodala according to our projections, even though Williams is playing a lot worse right now. I guess if your PG now is worse than Stephen Jackson (assuming he’ll be your new SF if you trade Iguodala), then it’s worth making that trade.

Thanks for that advice!  I’m still trying to understand true value on players.  

How am I losing a lot on that trade right now?   I understand that Deron is underperforming at the moment.  But doesn’t that make him a ‘buy low’ candidate?

If Smith and Jefferson are pretty equal, and I have center depth, would it not be beneficial to receive the “best player” with the most upside in Deron?  Thanks for the comment and helping me understand why it may/or may not be worth it.

Butler
Henderson
Dudley
Budinger

Who are the PGs or big assist guys on your team right now?

It’s a great question regarding player value and one that could go on and on over the course of many blog posts at GMTR. One of the things that makes fantasy basketball great compared to something like fantasy football is that team building really is like putting a puzzle together where you’re trying to get all the pieces to fit with each other in some coherent way.

For me personally, there are three factors to evaluate when considering a trade. 1) overall value – are you getting the best players in the trade. 2) fit – are the players you getting a good fit with the strategy of your team and the statistical categories you need, and 3) the risk – are you significantly altering the risk profile of your team. If I trade away Marc Gasol for Andrew Bynum, overall that is about even value or maybe I come out ahead on a per game basis, but I am also adding a significant amount of risk to my team because of potential injuries.

In regard to the trade you mentioned, Williams/Smith probably have slightly more value than Jefferson/Iguodala IF all these guys play close to the level that most people expect of them this year.

In regards to fit, using the GMTR stat projections (with some minor on the fly modifications by me considering what we know now), the trade costs you in three categories – about 3 rebounds a game, 1 block and you’ll take a 2-3 TO jump a game. On the flip side, you’ll gain around 5 assists a game, over a three, 0.5 steals, and maybe 1-2 points. Unfortunately, one of Williams’ biggest strengths is his FT% (the trade is around a net 10% increase in FT% for you) which will probably go for naught on a team with DH on it. But other than that, the trade is a good fit. As you mentioned, with DH and Gasol and you could probably spare those rebs/blocks for a nice bump in those other categories. If you can find a way not to play Stephen Jackson (who has crazy high TOs) the turnover increase might not hurt you that much. Once Baron Davis comes back, you might actually end up a little assist heavy with that team, but I wouldn’t worry about that until Davis actually gets back on the court.

In terms of the risk profile of this trade, you would be taking on 2 guys who have underperformed so far this year and the risk of buying low is that guys stay the year low. That being said, I’m pretty confident that both Smith and Williams will bounce back as the season goes on, provided that Williams doesn’t completely give up if the Nets lose every single game until Lopez returns.

Well that went on too long – but to answer your question I think the trade is a slight plus in your favor with the understanding that there is a very small risk of it all blowing

Patrick.  Great post.  Thanks for all of the specific info.

Look forward to reading some extra posts from you on this type of subject (in a general sense) as the year goes on.  You’re right that it’s a puzzle.  Learning strategies for putting the puzzle together is likely the difference between winning and losing.  With a little luck….

Rough one. Looks like Randolph is going to miss 6-8 weeks with a MCL tear. Whether to sit on him or drop him depends on the specifics of your league. Is it a weekly or daily changes league? Do you have a max games cap? How many bench spots do you have?

Depending on the specifics, you could run out and speculatively add
Dante Cunningham, who got the start at PF in the Griz last game, or Marreese Speights, who the Griz just signed. I’m not loving either of those guys though, especially not in a 10-team league.

Speights worth a speculative add in a 12-team league over any of these guys?  Brandon Rush, Jamal Crawford, Jordan Crawford, MarShon Brooks.

I’m a little thin on bigs right now with Gay, Nene, Bargnani, Dalembert, and Perkins as my only PF or C eligible players.

The fact that you refer to Bargnani as a “big” does indeed imply your lacking in that department. He’s basically a PF/C-eligible SF-stat producer really. That being said, I’d gamble on Greg Steimsma or Speights. Marshon Brooks is a good add, but it looks like you need big men more right now.

hey! new here 8 league team..H2H…Daily

…love your blog. wanted to show you my team and see if you could give me your thoughts on it…who i might want to get rid of…etc etc.  I hope so..you guys are awesome!

PG: Rajon Rondo
SG: Ray Allen
SF: Kevin Durant
PF: Josh Smith
C: Nene
G: Kyrie Irving
F/C: Joakim Noah
Util: James Harden
Util: Lamar Odom
Util: Darren Collison
Bench: Tyler Hansbrough
Bench: Boris Diaw
Bench: Nicolas Batum
Bench: DJ Augustin
Bench: Nick Young

Any thoughts you can let me in on are GREATLY appreciated!

-Emily

Yeah, you could definitely drop Jordan Crawford and possibly Rush for one or two of the bigs that Erik mentioned.

According to a combination of our preseason player projections and the current season stats, here are the total stats your team should average in any given week.

pts 856
reb 303
ast 184
stl 58
blk 26
to 116
3pm 37
fgp 46%
ftp 80%

And here is what the average team in your league should get in a week 

pts 728
reb 278
ast 162
stl 55
blk 37
to 96
3pm 50
fgp 47%
ftp 77%

So, looks like your team is strong in points, rebounds, assists and FT%. Steals and FG% are a toss-up and your weak in blocks, TOs, and threes. I think overall your in a good place and don’t need to do too much. Like Erik said, you could look to move one of your low FG% guys and maybe give up some points for a shot blocker if you wanted. But overall, you are in good shape.

My league is a daily changes league, where the players lock in daily, i dont have a max games cap, and only 3 bench slots. My current bigs are Horford, Dalembert, Varejao, Blair, and Bynum. Would my current group of big men be able to provide the needed stats until Randolph returns?

I think I’m going to get rid of Young and grab Delfino….good move?

Good move.

If this is a daily changes league, I’d say start Dudley first over Wright until Wright figures out that the season has started. The rest of your team looks pretty good (without knowing how many teams are in your league).

Hey Davo, trust me, I’ve spent years plugging in the wrong guys on the wrong nights – it’s inevitably going to happen when you have a deep team and it’s one of the more frustrating things about daily changes leagues.

So anyway, using a combination of our preseason player projections and the current season stats (and assuming Wright takes a big hit in value this season), here are the total stats your team should average in any given week. Note this assumes you play in a 12 team league.

pts    763
reb    283
ast    152
stl    47
blk    28
to    92
3pm    65
fgp    44%
ftp    84%

And here is what the average team in your league should get in a week

pts    693
reb    284
ast    152
stl    54
blk    36
to    93
3pm    46
fgp    46%
ftp    77%

So you have a bit of an interesting team. No surprise with bigs like Frye, Ryan Anderson and Al Harrington, you should be destroying teams in threes every week. Looks like your also strong in points and FT%. Rebounds, assists and TOs are your toss-up categories. You don’t really have any big weaknesses, although you are slightly below average in steals, blocks and FG%. Given your strength in threes, Stuckey is probably the best fit out of the three to play on a nightly basis. Dudley is the most redundant with your strengths. Given your situation, I’d definitely look to move one of your three point shooters for anything in your weaker categories – maybe a rebounding/blocking big or an assist/steals guard.

Glad you like the blog Chris! And glad we can help you out even a little in your leagues. Ok, so like I’ve been doing with other people, here are about what your average weekly stats should look like using a combination of our preseason player projections and the current season stats (assuming you’ve got David Lee and a rejuvinated Richard Jefferson).

pts    578
reb    215
ast    166
stl    41
blk    33
to    91
3pm    36
fgp    50%
ftp    72%

And here is what the average team in your league should get in a week

pts    551
reb    220
ast    122
stl    42
blk    28
to    74
3pm    37
fgp    47%
ftp    77%

As you can see, you’re strong in assists, blocks and FG%, weak in FT% and everything else is pretty much a toss-up at the moment. So while you are not strong in points and boards, you do ok with Lee on the team.

If you swap out Jefferson for Humphries, you’d look something more like this

pts    562
reb    246
ast    168
stl    41
blk    36
to    93
3pm    28
fgp    50%
ftp    72%

You’d lose a few points and a lot of threes to gain a sizeable increase in boards and some blocks. I don’t think it’s a bad move at all to try and lock up some of those big man categories, so a Humphries pickup makes sense in my book. You’ll probably lose FT%, threes and maybe TOs more often than not, but you’ll have a good change to win assists, boards, blocks, and FG% every week. Overall, I think you’ve done a really good job with your moves and the only thing I’d look for is to add a threes/steal guy off your bench if you hve that luxury.

He must think it’s still just the pre-season.

I LOVE that you reply to these questions & your blog is the no.1 place I check every night. Thanks so much.

I’m in a 10 team H2H league (no TO) & your analysis is spot on (not sure if it changes much with the 10 team vs 12 team).
FT% & 3′s  are strong, Pts, Reb, Assists, steals are 50/50, and FG% and Blocks are hurting.
Im all about finding that rebounding/blocking guy but will have to decide who Im willing to let go.

Ive thrown Wright, Frye, Stuckey & Dudley out there as on the block. Hoping somone is positive on Wright turning it around and considers a bundle trade. Although I think I may have to dangle someone else who Im loving now to get a big rebounder/block guy.

Keep up the great work.

hi nelswadycki! thanks for your input. I’m also looking at that option..