Day 12 of 124: The First Combo Line Of The Night

Categorized as: Author: Nels, Fantasy Basketball, Miami Heat
Posted on: January 6th, 2012

or: Don’t Read Too Much Into Anything From Last Night

Line of the Night/Waiver Wire Line of the Night: For the second straight day, one of the Miami Heat players had the Line of the Night. It wasn’t LeBron James, who sat with a sprained ankle, nor Dwyane Wade who missed his second straight with a foot injury. Of course, with those two guys out, there were a lot of shots for everyone else, especially since their game against the Hawks went into 3 overtime periods. So, with all those caveats, please welcome Mario Chalmers (2.94) as your Day 12 Line of the Night. Chalmers played 49 minutes to end up with 29 points (3 threes, 6-6 from the line), 7 rebounds, 8 assists, and 3 steals. Those are not the kind of Per 36 Minutes numbers you want to see for fantasy basketball purposes. Of course, they’re better than Shane Battier’s, who also played 49 minutes but only had 9 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists and 1 blocked shot. Chris Bosh (2.49) played only 47 minutes to end up with 33 points (4-4 from the line), 14 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, and 2 blocks.

Honorable Mentions:
The Bucks did not go into any overtimes, but Brandon Jennings (2.63) played 42 minutes and scored 31 points (6 threes), to go with 7 assists and 5 steals. Andrew Bogut was still out, for anyone watching that situation. Carlos Delfino only had 11 minutes as coach Scott Skiles apparently went back to his much vaunted (and consistently ineffective) 3-guard offense, playing Shaun Livingston for 30 minutes and Beno Udrih for 25 minutes. Perhaps Delfino was injured, but there’s nothing about that in the recap. The recap does talk about DeMarcus Cousins playing well with his new head coach, and while he did have 19 points and 15 rebounds, he still only shot 8-18 (44%) from the field and 3-6 from the line. His teammate Tyreke Evans (2.02) was also 8-18, but made 9-9 from the line and 1 three-pointer to end up with 26 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 steals. Of course, Evans played 41 minutes compared to Cousins’s 27. Another guy with big minutes for the Kings was Marcus Thornton (1.26) who played 42.5 and ended with 27 points (2 threes, 5-5 from the line), 5 rebounds, and 2 steals.

Moving on to the other two games of the night (even on the relatively slow Thursday nights we have 4 games!), Pau Gasol (1.61) had 19 points (7-10 from the field, 5-5 from the line), 7 rebounds, and 2 blocks for the Lakers. And while Kobe scored 30, it wasn’t enough to overcome Gerald Wallace (1.44) and his 31 points (13-19 from the field), 5 rebounds, and 2 steals plus LaMarcus Aldridge‘s (1.42) 28 points, and 10 rebounds.

Meanwhile, Richard Jefferson (1.40) continued his flashback to his pre-Spurs days with 16 points (3 threes), and 7 rebounds. Is this some sort of new Third Year Bump we’re seeing? Jefferson helped the Spurs build a 26 point first half lead, so there’s not a lot else to be said about that game. You know things aren’t good for the defending champs when Delonte west has the best line with 10 points, 1 rebound, and 3 assists.

***

Pick Up Lines: As I just mentioned, the Spurs game was kind of a blowout, so the fact that Matt Bonner (1.52) ended up with 17 points (5 threes, 6-10 from the field), 6 rebounds shouldn’t be that spurprising. (That was a typo, but it actually works out pretty well) Bonner was only +2 on the +/- rating, which means he came in when the Spurs were already up big.

Tracy McGrady (1.31) played almost 30 minutes for the Hawks, soaking up some of those overtime minutes to finish with 14 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 blocks (13% owned). That’s probably not going to happen often – his previous season high was 25 minutes.

One guy to actually keep an eye on (if not pick up already) is Gary Neal (0.79). Even though Erik heard from a reliable source that James Anderson would be the Man to fill in for Manu, he played only 6 minutes compared to Neal’s 20. Even in those limited minutes, Neal had 12 points (4 threes), 5 rebounds, and 2 steals (13% owned).

Biggest Loser: Plenty to choose from last night… starting with Tim Duncan (-1.10), who didn’t really have to try too hard, so he didn’t, ending up with 10 points, 5 rebounds, and 1 assist while going 4-13 from the field and 2-6 from the line. Going against Duncan was Lamar Odom (-0.86) who had 6 points on 3-10 from the field with 8 rebounds. Odom was only -10 on the +/- though, compared to Jason Kidd (-0.70) who was -14 in only 11 minutes, finishing with 0 points, 2 rebounds, and 3 assists. Teammate Dirk Nowitzki (-0.61) stuck around a little longer, but didn’t help much with his 6 points (3-11 from the field) and 6 rebounds.

***

Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.

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Tags: Mario Chalmers, Tim Duncan

Pvpdoorman02

Should I pickup Neal or Marshon Brooks?
BradM

Can anyone talk me out of dropping Afflalo for Amir Johnson?
Bluesmiller

Where can I find the +/- rating refered to above?
http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

I look at the box scores on Yahoo.
http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

Could depend on your positional needs, but on pure stats, Brooks.
http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

I will not talk you out of that.
slick

with eric gordon out 3 weeks should i drop afflalo for bellinelli in a h2h 9cat
Davo

Is Jennings the real deal or is this a freakish effort?

Im also thinking about pitching a trade to try pick up JaVale McGee or Spencer Hawes & Brandon Jennings for a combo of Dorell Wright, Channing Frye Chauncey Billups, Stuckey or Dudley.
The guy Im pitching it at wants steals and 3′s, and also rode Dorell to a win last year so Im hoping he still has some love for Dorell & his potential.

I need blocks & rebounds.

Does this look like a good trade? I think so on current form & even on 2012 projections.
What combination do you think would be best?
Orchix

Who is the best SF who’s likely on the waiver wire that’s worth picking up? I currently have Delfino, but he’s not doing too well, and I’m thinking of picking up either Marvin Williams or James Johnson at the moment. Also, are Iman Shumpert or Mario Chalmers( who placed well on the player rater) worth the pick up too?
guest

i need help…which deal would you rather make. give tyreke evans for ibaka or give paul george for tyson chandler? thanks.
http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

Considering Gordon has missed 4/6 games so far this year, and Bellinelli is at 214 on the Player Rater vs. Afflalo at 182, there doesn’t seem like a lot of upside going with Marco. Even if he gets up to like the Top 150, he’ll be back in the 200′s when Gordon gets back. Afflalo still seems to be the preferred option at SG for the Nuggets, so there’s a lot more potential there.
http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

Seems like a lot to give up to me. From my (certainly biased) perspective you are giving up guys who are underperforming (except Billups who is probably giving about what he will for the season) for guys who are overperforming (mostly Hawes, but a little big Jennings and a smaller bit for McGee).

Jennings is real streaky; he’ll put up 30 points one night and then 6 the next. I suppose in a weekly league, it probably all evens out if you’re okay with not knowing if he’s going to show up for 2 of 5 games or 4 of 5 games in a week.

Definitely don’t trade all those guys for Hawes and Jennings, though. At least with McGee you get a track record of career stats. If anyone is putting up a freakish effort, it’s Hawes.
http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

According to the Player Rater cross-indexed with Yahoo ownership %’s: Hakim Warrick. If Marvin Williams is available, he is rated higher than Warrick. Delfino is still rated higher than both of them and James Johnson. Johnson is #51 out of SFs and PFs combined on the Player Rater (lower than Delfino, Williams, and Warrick).

So, even though Delfino is still the highest, after having him last year, I know why you want to get rid of him. He’s one of the streakiest players there is. I’d go with Williams.

I’d take Shumpert over Chalmers. He’s probably with a pick up.
http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

Evans for Ibaka is the better trade. You gain a lot more.
Anonymous

I’d be curious to hear thoughts on the preference for inconsistent but beefy upside vs. consistent average performance in H2H. I’ve been searching for a reliable #4 F to put up, say, 20-23 total fantasy points per week…doesn’t have to be a nightly beast, I’ve got the requisite number of those, but really want to avoid the odd 8 or 12 fantasy point garbage-fest game each week that wrecks havoc with my averages. Instead, I keep getting guys who go off for a game or two (e.g., Carlos Delfino) with 35 minutes of burn per game that looks sustainable just before they get jobbed with an 11 minute stint in the fantasy freezer. Speaking of the Bucks, I’m convinced Scott Skiles is channeling his inner Mike Shanahan and that even though Drew Gooden had a sweet game last night, it won’t last (Bogut’s availability being a legitimate reason, in my opinion, to mess with his minutes).

Don’t have the data to prove it one way or the other but does this apparent lack of consistency seem to be happening more this year, probably due to the lock-out and it will sort itself out as rotations stabilize, or is it just standard fare for the end of a fantasy bench in 12 team leagues? Thx.
Anonymous

I’d be curious to hear thoughts on the preference for inconsistent but beefy upside vs. consistent average performance in H2H. I’ve been searching for a reliable #4 F to put up, say, 20-23 total fantasy points per week…doesn’t have to be a nightly beast, I’ve got the requisite number of those, but really want to avoid the odd 8 or 12 fantasy point garbage-fest game each week that wrecks havoc with my averages. Instead, I keep getting guys who go off for a game or two (e.g., Carlos Delfino) with 35 minutes of burn per game that looks sustainable just before they get jobbed with an 11 minute stint in the fantasy freezer. Speaking of the Bucks, I’m convinced Scott Skiles is channeling his inner Mike Shanahan and that even though Drew Gooden had a sweet game last night, it won’t last (Bogut’s availability being a legitimate reason, in my opinion, to mess with his minutes).

Don’t have the data to prove it one way or the other but does this apparent lack of consistency seem to be happening more this year, probably due to the lock-out and it will sort itself out as rotations stabilize, or is it just standard fare for the end of a fantasy bench in 12 team leagues? Thx.
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

How many teams in the league? Shumpert is the best of the bunch you mentioned as it looks like he’s about to become the Knick’s starting SG, although he won’t qualify at SF for you. Delfino, Williams and Johnson have all been inconsistent this year, which makes them hard to stomach in fantasy leagues. Brandon Rush might be a guy to consider now that Curry might be out for a while, although he’s had consistency problems as well. Richard Jefferson is also an option I guess. I’d personally stick with Delfino for a bit if your looking for threes/steals, or possible give Jefferson a try.

I’d only want to own Chalmers as long as Wade and LeBron were out of the lineup. He’s shooting crazy good to start the season and the numbers he is putting up are not sustainable.
slick

whats up fellas, neal or shumpert h2h 9 cat
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

I think if you can get ANYONE to bite on Wright at the moment, you’ve got to make that trade. I love McGee this year and if you can get him for Wright, that would be a huge win.

The numbers Jennings is putting up seem to be legit. He’s scoring more this season, but his shooting percentage (40%) is right in line with what you’d expect. His assist, three and steal numbers are also right in line with what you’d expect from him this year. I don’t see why he won’t continue to put up those type of numbers going forward.

Like Nels, I’m a little less enthusiastic about Hawes who I think will eventually cool off after his flaming start to the season. Still a Wright/+1 of those other guys trade for Hawes/Jennings seems like it could be a win for you in my book.
Orchix

10 teams, thanks for the advice though Nels and Patrick. I ended up switching Delfino for Shumpert, just to see how he does, and because Delfino really isnt helping that much with my current h2h matchup. The only problem now is that I have an army of point guards(lowry, evans, teague, conley, augustin, kidd, and now shumpert)…i feel like david kahn.
zee

Trade CP3 for James Harden and Tony Parker – bad deal or horrible deal?
The only reason I’m even considering this is because Ginobili is out and I think it’s possible for Parker to top 20 pts. Though not sure because of Gary Neal, Richard Jefferson, TJ Ford, Danny Green. SG is really deep at san antonio right now.
http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

Go ahead. Pull the trigger on that one. Looks like Afflalo will need 2-3 more weeks to get back into form, if he will at all
Davo

Thanks for the reply guys.

I’m going to try a 3 for 2 trade and aim at McGee & Jennings for Wright, Frye and Stuckey.
That will leave me with only one SF in Dudley but I’ll go Waiver shopping for a backup.

Here goes.
http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

Remember how LAC gave up an arm and a leg to get Paul? Same can go in fantasy. While the deal is “OK” and not bad nor horrible, it still isn’t “an arm and a leg” which you can arguably get for CP3. Just my take.
zee

What about Rubio + CP3 for Harden + Rondo?
9 cat h2h with TOs
Reader and Fan: Mistah Yang

14 team H2H 9 category league

I’m giving up Durant + Wall for Westbrook, injured Eric Gordon, Marc Gasol, and JJ Redick

My team is lacking depth, what do you think?
Reader and Fan: Mistah Yang

I just need to know if its fair or if you think I could get more for the combo of Durant + Wall. In terms of what I meant by lacking depth, I currently have Ridnour, Steimsma, G. Hayward, DJ White, Shumpert, and Ed Davis. Not saying that these were bad pick ups but having them all on one team says something.
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

If you give me your full lineup again, I’ll crunch the numbers for you.
Reader and Fan: Mistah Yang

My line up is currently

PG: Wall
SG: Afflalo
G: Lawson
SF: Durant
PF: Lebron
F: Tyler Hansbrough
C: Ed Davis
C: Greg Steisma
Util: Jeff Teague
Util: Iman Shumpert
Bench: Marvin Williams
Bench: DJ White
Bench: Gordon Hayward

P.S. Is there somewhere that I can crunch these numbers whenever I need to? Haha or do I have to borrow your brain whenever the situation is dire?
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

Neal is the safer choice as he’s going to be the Spurs starter until Manu returns and you’re going to be able to count on him hitting a ton of threes. Shumpert’s path isn’t quite as clear (he’s still battling with Landry Fields for minutes) but has the higher upside of the two. If you could use the threes, go with Neal, otherwise I’d go with Shumpert.
http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

I like that one better, though it still violates the rule of “get the best player”. Of course, right now Rubio and Rondo are almost even on the Player rater, so if you think that’s going to continue then you’re trading CP3 for Harden which is horrible. Obviously Rondo should improve and Rubio will sink down, so that makes it an okay trade.

Why so hot to trade CP3 anyway?
Anonymous

I’m getting a little worried about Curry’s ankles and Pau Gasol’s relatively weak production (compared to Bynum). Any of these deals worth it in the pure value sense?

My Curry + Pau for K Love and B Jennings?
My Curry + Pau for LBJ?
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

Here is what the Harden/Rondo combination would net you on a per game basis combined:

pts 28.0
reb 8.7
ast 14.2
stl 3.2
blk 0.3
to 5.4
3pm 1.7
fgp 47%
ftp 78%

And here is what you would lose from the CP3/Rubio twosome:

pts 24.7
reb 7.5
ast 17.0
stl 3.4
blk 0.2
to 5.2
3pm 2.1
fgp 49%
ftp 81%

So you’d gain about 3 points and a board a game for a loss of 3 assists, a half a three and some percentages. So, it seems like a lateral move at best for you.
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

Well if I ever get my ass in gear, a trade analyzer of some sort is something I can incorporate into the player rater. Until then, you’re stuck borrowing my brain

So here is a rough estimate of what your team is doing now on a weekly basis with Durant and Wall

pts 667
reb 241
ast 149
stl 48
blk 36
to 84
3pm 36
fgp 47%
ftp 79%

And here is what your team would look like after the trade (assming you drop Ed Davis and Hayward once you get Gasol and Redick and that Eric Gordon is healthy).

pts 706
reb 235
ast 157
stl 52
blk 34
to 85
3pm 35
fga 48%
fgm 81%

So in a perfect world where Gordon is healthy, the trade would net you a nice bump in points, a few assists and steals and some percentages. On the flip side, you’d lose some boards and a couple blocks a week.

Of course, we’re not in a perfect world and Gordon is out for at least the next 2-3 weeks with a knee injury. While he’s out say you play someone like Marco Belinelli in that spot, here is what your team would average.

pts 682
reb 249
ast 150
stl 51
blk 33
to 84
3pm 38
fga 47%
fgm 80%

Not quite as pretty. You’d end up more or less where you started. So given Gordon’s injury and his not so pretty injury history, I think you could get a better haul for Durant.
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

As a Curry owner myself, I’m pretty damn worried too. Especially after reading an article in the Mercury News that described Curry’s injuries in detail as something that just kind of happen on the court without any type of contact or trauma.
http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_19682336

Gasol’s minutes are slightly down so far this season, but his stats seem to be holding up pretty good with the exception of his rebounding numbers, which are down. Looking at the advanced rebounding stats on basketball reference, the big difference for the Lakers between this year and last is that 1) Bynum is playing out of his mind and 2) McRoberts and Murphy are slightly better rebounders on a per-minute basis than Odom was last season. Overall, I think Gasol should be fine this year once Bynum starts to cool down a bit.

In terms of those trades, it’s all going to depend on how many games Curry plays the rest of the year. I think a trade for Love and Jennings is more than fair even is Curry is relatively healthy and could be a downright steal if he misses a good chuck on games. I do think that’s a little too much to give up for LBJ though. Maybe it could work as LBJ + something else.
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

I think all of us here are GMTR would gladly choose consistent performance over inconsistent upside (well, maybe not Erik) simply because inconsistency on a night-to-night basis is something that will drive you crazy over the course of a season. It’s one of the golden rules of fantasy basketball: given the choice between starting two players, you will ALWAYS start the wrong one. Always.

But the problem with waiver wire players is that they are often inconsistent by their very nature. There are some guys out there who are consistently average – Chuck Hayes was a great example last season, Thaddeus Young has made a career out of it – but the average waiver wire player sees either their minutes or performance fluctuate a great deal from game to game. It’s a catch-22, if a player is more consistent, then they probably are less likely to be on the wire in the first place.

I haven’t looked at the numbers myself, but there certainly feels like there are a lot more blowouts this year than in a typical NBA season. And blowouts lead to inconsistent minutes and starters who get extra rest that night. It’s definitely been a crazy start to the season. Will things calm down as the season progresses? I don’t know, but it’ll be fun to find out.
Reader and Fan: Mistah Yang

Thank for your insight, your brain works wonders. Due to your analysis, I ended up pulling Wall out and putting in Teague (gah, I loved teague) and so the eventual trade was Westbrook, Gordon, and Marc Gasol for Durant + Teague. I was actually taking a closer look at Gordon’s injury history and in turns out that he’s been injuring different body parts rather than constantly one area of the body (extreme example, curry’s ankles or Bynum’s foot.) so its a gamble but I think it could work.
http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

The short answer for me is, if I don’t see names like Rose, James, and Durant in the equation, I’d better get my trade partner’s top 3 ranked players for Paul. nuff said.
Anonymous

New here, but I love the site. I already accepted the trade, but any opinions? I’m nervous about basically giving up my only options at SG…but it’s Kevin Durant.:

I get: Kevin Durant, Lou Williams
He gets: Deron Williams, Andre Iguodala, Nick Young

It’s a H2H 10t 9cat league. Here’s my roster after the move:

PG: CP3, Jarrett Jack
SG: Lou Williams, Dorell Wright, Gerald Henderson
SF: Durant, Diaw
PF: Boozer, Nene, Bass
C: Gortat, Blair, DeAndre Jordan

Keep in mind I had gotten Deron originally from the same guy (along with Boozer) for Horford and Lou Williams (who I picked up from FA). Points have been KILLING me.

Thoughts, opinions on what my next move should be?
http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

First of all, WELCOME! Breaking it down, its like trading Deron and AI9
for KD. Pricey, but he’s in a different tier above everyone else outside
of Bron and CP3.

Moves:

1. Find another PG or G who passes. CP3 and CP4 won’t cut it in 10-man.

2. Durant-CP3 core is about preserving %s above all, remember that as you make future pick-ups.

3. I would punt blocks altogether and trade away DeAndre, unless your league counts CP3-to-Jordan alley-oops as a category.

4. Believe or not, even WITH KD your team will lose PTS cat in most
matchups. Adjust and try to win FG%, FT%, STL, AST, REB, and TO instead.
Pingback: Give Me The Rock » Blog Archive » Day 13 of 124: Lucky 13 Points for Anderson Varejao
Anonymous

Thanks, and I agree, it will definitely be an interesting / fun year. And the adage of always starting the wrong one couldn’t be more spot on. Well said!
zee

Thanks for the input from all you guys. I wanted to trade him because my team lacked depth.
It was my first auction draft and I ended up with like 6 borderline droppable players (for spending too much on CP3 mostly). Additionally, Dorell Wright who was sadly one of my top 3, became worthless, Ginobili is out, Gallinari can’t hit threes (until last night). So I’m just trying to add depth and stability to my team. Ideally I am trying to aim for at least 10 core players with 3 that I might stream.

Also I’m getting +4 rebounds by my calculations. so pts + rbds for 3 assists… also I’m 2nd in the league in assists (out of 10). sooo yeah does that warrant the trade?
http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

If you’re trying for depth then a 2-for-2 trade is not going to help with that. If you want to try a 1-for-2 or 2-for-3, that’s fine, but I bet you can do better than Harden and Parker for CP3. As for the assists, getting Rondo as part of a deal for CP3 will probably be enough to keep you competitive there, but remember, there’s still 110 days left in the season. That’s a long time…
Anonymous

Didn’t get a chance to respond back to this until today, but I just wanted to thank you for the response. Andre Miller is on waivers so I may pick him up (as is Kidd). I’m not sure if I’m willing to give up on Jordan just yet, but I will keep it in mind since he obviously doesn’t get much of anything else and he brings down my FT%.

Thoughts on who I should drop for either Miller or Kidd? I just picked up Dudley as he was one of my consistent favorites last year (plus he was good for SG, SF, and PF if I remember right).

Thanks again!

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Day 12 of 124: The First Combo Line Of The Night

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