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  • Day 16 of 124: Where Tyson Chandler Drops Bombs

    Author Icon for Patrick

    Categorized as: Author: Patrick, Fantasy Basketball
    Posted on: January 10th, 2012

    Line of the Night: Tyson Chandler (2.91) took advantage of a DeSagana Diop matchup to score 20 points on 7-8 shooting, adding 13 rebounds, 3 steals and 3 blocks on the night. And when I say shooting, I really mean catching and dunking lobs from other Knicks. But hey, it’s been effective for Chandler, who is now averaging what would be a career high 12 points in addition to 8.6 boards and 1.8 blocks. Speaking of Diop, he makes Boris Diaw look like he’s a runway model out on the court, which is no small feat in and of itself.

    Honorable Mentions: And Speaking of Boris Diaw (2.06), he had another near triple-double against the Knicks with 19 points, 10 rebounds and 7 assists. It comes after a horrible game against the Pacers – so the Diaw yo-yo effect is in full swing. Get ready for a wild ride everyone!

    GMTR loves Amir Johnson (1.91), who exploded for 19 points on 7-9 from shooting and 11 rebounds for his second straight double-double. Nice to see that Johnson has finally come alive working as the heavy alongside the not-so-heavy Andrea Bargnani (1.33). Bargs scored a season high 31 points for the Raptors, adding 9 rebounds in the game.

    Kevin Love (-0.53) was just 3-16 from the field in this game, so the Wolves best fantasy performance actually came from Derrick Williams (0.79). The rookie was just 4-11 from the floor himself, but did finish with 13 points, 8 boards a steal and a block off the bench. He’ll make a strong fantasy play while Michael Beasley is out and could be in line for starters minutes if Beasley moves to the bench.

    ***

    The Hawks jumped out to a big lead over the Nets only to barely hang on in the end, but that meant some big minutes for the Hawks’ starters, including Jeff Teague (1.76), who scored 20 points and was 3-3 from three. Josh Smith (0.95) also scored a season high 26 on 10-13 shooting. Where would the Nets be without Deron Williams (0.45) who had 15 points and 14 assists in the game? Well, they’d probably still be 2-8.

    I was planning on throwing up Anthony Morrow (1.29) as a waiver wire recommendation after a 20 point performance in which he hit 4 threes, but then I saw he was already owned in 51% of leagues. The good news is that he’s back in the starting lineup for now and draining mass quantities of threes.

    On a night where the Bulls beat the Pistons by 24 points if my math is correct, Carlos Boozer (1.66) finished with 23 points on 9-13 shooting and added 8 rebounds. And even though the Pistons only managed to score 68 points, Greg Monroe (1.49) somehow pulled a 14 points, 10 rebound, 6 assist game out of a hat. For his next trick, he’s going to make Charlie Villanueva disappear.

    Thaddeus Young (1.45) had a game off the bench in a win for the Sixers. He scored 12 points, with 8 rebounds and 2 steals. On the flip side, David West (0.59) showed some signs of life in the game with 15 points and 11 boards. He also played 33 minutes, his second highest total of the year so far.

    Here is a lesson about why you should never focus on stockpiling threes in a draft – there are so many available on the wire throughout the season, including…

    Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Is Vladimir Radmanovic (1.31) actually making a case to fantasy owners? Starting in place of the injured Marvin Williams, Radmanovic scored 14 points on 4-11 from three (ok, who let him shoot 11 threes?) adding 6 rebounds in the game. Williams has already been ruled out for the Hawks’ next game on Wednesday, so if you’re in a deep league and jonesing for some threes or if you’re the streaming type, Radmanovic is your man. Over his last three 3 games, he’s hit 11 threes, so there you go. Long term, he’s still Vladimir Radmanovic however.

    Pick Up Lines: Finally, Marco Belinelli (1.29) showed some signs of life filling in for the injured Eric Gordon. Belinelli scored 19 points and hit 3 threes in 30 minutes of run. Belinelli started off the season cold as the Kardashian/Humphries marriage, but if he’s found his shot, Belinelli has the potential to be a plus in the threes and points categories over the next couple of week while Gordon recovers from that knee injury.

    I’m beginning to love James Johnson (1.26), if only because he’s one of the more unique players in the league. Getting 19 minutes of run off the Raptors’ bench, Johnson only scored 5 points on 2-3 shooting, but also grabbed 5 rebounds and blocked 4 shots. While I certainly wish those minutes were more consistent, if you’re in a deep league and need a Shane Battier type without the threes (I know, please don’t all raise your hands at the same time), Johnson has been quietly been putting up some decent board/block numbers.

    Dahntay Jones (1.22) got the start in place of Danny Granger, who missed the game with food poisoning, and finished with 12 points and 2 blocks. Leave him on waivers unless Granger decides he’s going to eat expired food at the Kwik-E-Mart every night.

    Rudy Fernandez (1.01) has started his annual “I’m playing just good enough for you to think about picking me up” run only to completely crap out once you do. As you can tell, I’ve been burned by him in the past, are the scars visible? Anyway, Fernandez came off the Nuggets bench to score 14 points and hit a couple threes in 27 minutes. In a perfect world, Fernandez should continue to get 25ish minutes off the bench to fill the role vacated by J.R. Smith. Add at your own risk.

    Two guys available in over 50% of Yahoo leagues right now and probably 0% of leagues of people who read GMTR are Marshon Brooks (1.29) and Iman Shumpert (1.11).

    Brooks got the start at SF against the Hawks and responded with 19 points, 3 threes and 10 rebounds in 40 minutes. Both Damion James and DeShawn Stevenson missed the game with injuries, but come on, he’s way better than those two anyway. Brooks provides some much needed scoring in a Nets lineup currently missing Brook Lopez and should continue to put up impressive – if inconsistent – scoring numbers this year.

    Meanwhile, Iman Shumpert (1.11) is proving he’s the real deal one good game after another. Starting at point for the Knicks, he scored 16 points, adding 6 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 steals. Even when (if) Baron Davis returns, Shumpert has been playing so well that the team will probably move him to the two and start him there.

    Biggest Loser: Al Harrington (-1.18) never got it going in a loss to the Hornets. Getting only 18 minutes of run off the bench (his lowest of the season), he finished with 2 points, 0 rebounds, 2 assists and 3 turnovers. Expect Harrington to bounce back in the Nuggets next game. Andre Miller (-0.89) also had a horrible game, shooting 0-5 from the field and not scoring on the night.

    ***

    Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.

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    • Gerald

      Hi Patrick, great post as usual.
      Could you kindly provide the comparable statistical rundown of my team?
      12-team H2H with 16 players each, start 10 players (2 PG/SG/SF/PF/C) daily, standard 9 CATS
      PG-Wall
      PG-Irving
      SG-Teague
      SG-Paul George
      SF-Gallinari
      SF-Iguodala
      PF-Josh Smith
      PF- Lebron James
      C-Monroe
      C-Varejao
      Bench – Blatche
      Bench – Shumpert
      Bench – Favors
      Bench – Brooks
      Bench – Dalembert
      Bench – Gary Neal
       
      I find my bench pretty strong and would like to try buy low on injured studs like Lowry, Curry or Eric Gordon
       
      What do you think would be acceptable 2 for 1 prices for these players?
       
      Thanks lots!

    • Kevin

      I recently started reading your blog and find it very interesting. I am especially fascinated with the depth of knowledge that people have in this forum. I am in a 12 team H2H league with weekly lineup, and i would like to know what direction my team should take as i am currently last in the league and would want to revamp my team if possible. My team consisted of:
      1. PG Jrue Holiday2. SG Monta Ellis3. G Andre Miller4. F D. Wright5. PF Amare Stoudamire6. PF Tim Duncan7. C Emeka Okafor8. C Chris Kaman9. PG Mario Chalmers10. PG Jason Kidd

      Really appreciate any advice. I am getting killed every week. =(

    • Kevin

      Hum… sorry… i space out the roster nicely in the comment box, don’t know why it came out like that…

    • Kevin

      forgot two more players. 11 SF Hedo Turkoglu and 12 SG Manu Ginobili

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

      @Patrick:disqus You know runway models are only like 5′ 10″, right? If they weren’t up on an elevated runway, you’d probably be like “Oh, I’m taller than that bitch.”

    • Slick

      Fellas, In a 14 team h2h 9cat…should i drop afflalo for james johnson..jj is a stat stuffer and afflalos been looking CRAP out there..or maybe even a steve blake..word is he’s taking old man fishers job pretty soon…Whats your thoughts

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

      I’d be a bit careful trading for Curry in a daily changes league. Lowry seems like a better candidate to me… Something like Shumpert and Varejao or Monroe would be a pretty lowball starting offer, but you might get laughed at depending on your trade partner. In a daily league with that many players on teams, having slightly better players to fill your lineup might be something you can talk someone into, though.

      I would say maybe Shumpert and Gallinari, but then your front line gets pared down pretty bad. Trading Monroe or Varejao right now is a pretty good sell high move and you have Blatche who should be able to fill in decently at C.

      To up the offer, maybe go with Teague or Irving or Wall. They’re not playing super great right now, but they have a lot of upside that might intrigue other owners.

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

      I wouldn’t go with Steve Blake just yet, but I’d be willing to swap JJ for AA.

    • Gerald

      Appreciate the response Nels,
      How about irving + Monroe + brooks for lawson + marc gasol?

    • Gerald

      Is irving + brooks an okay offer for eric Gordon? Or abit much for an injured player?

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

      Whoa – that is like the All-Underperforming Team you’ve got there. Assuming you went with Stoudemire and Ellis at the end of the first round… That’s tough since Monta is hanging around at #30 while Stoudemire isn’t even in the Top 40. Since Stoudemire has a good FT% for a big man, and a terrible FG%, I’d focus on trying to build up Small Ball stats. You’ve got a good start, but Duncan and Okafor are going to kill just about any small ball stats for you.

      With Manu out another 5 weeks, you need to trade him to someone who can afford to wait. I would try to get a SF to replace Wright since he’s one of your weaker links right now. Caron Butler might be a reasonable expectation. That or go for a PF to get Tim Duncan out. Maybe try to throw in Duncan in a trade too, to see if someone wants to bet on his upside potential. Then look for someone with good Small Ball numbers at the PF position. Vlad Radmanovic is a good option if he continues to play like he did last night.

      I really want to say drop Chalmers, but he’s the second best guy you’ve got right now and has good Small Ball numbers. But he has very limited upside. Check the WW for anyone playing better than Okafor. I’d keep Kaman since he seems to be getting more minutes and doing more with them, and so far his FT shooting is okay. Keep an eye on Sam Dalembert now that he’s starting for the Rockets, he might be a good replacement. If he starts playing close to as good as Okafor, you should consider making that change. The Rockets have 4 games this week, so you should know by Saturday. 

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

      I like the Lawson/Gasol trade (for you, though I probably wouldn’t do that if it was offered to me). The other one seems like too little to offer for someone like Gordon, but also, because he’s injured, you’ll have to deal with losing 2 players in a daily changes league. Doesn’t seem like either side wins on that one.

    • Kevin

      Thanks so much for your reply. You are right, i got last pick in my league and got Monta+Amare as my 1st and 2nd. 

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Hey Gerald, well since you asked nicely, here you go. This is what you can expect your team to average in a week (assuming you can rotate around 13 of your 16 guys in and out of the lineup on a weekly basis)

      pts 764
      reb 328
      ast 188
      stl 71
      blk 41
      to 116
      3pm 36
      fgp 46%
      ftp 75%

      And here is what the average team in your league looks like.

      pts 690
      reb 282
      ast 151
      stl 56
      blk 34
      to 96
      3pm 45
      fgp 46%
      ftp 76%

      Looks like you don’t need our help, we might need yours. Great team. You’ve got pluses in points, boards, assists, steals and blocks. TOs and threes are your big weaknesses (although I did not take Neal into account with the projections – you should be at least average if you rotate him in), while percentages are a toss-up. Nearly all your guys are playing well so far this year – the only real underperformer I see is Wall.

      With a team as strong as yours, I see two things that can happen with you tinkering with your team. A) you buy low on Gordon/Curry/etc, they come back from injury fine and you have this juggernaut of a team that destroys everything in sight, or B) you trade for them, they don’t come back fine, miss a bunch of games and you’ve sabotaged yourself.

      Obviously, I’m all for you trading because scenario A sounds awesome. The problem of course is that trading for an injured player is usually tougher than you think. The owner doesn’t want to sell low and obviously you don’t want to give away too much for a guy who is currently injured. For example, I don’t think any owner would bite on Irving and Brooks for Eric Gordon. I’d guess you’d pretty much have to go full value on him and give him one of the offers that Nels mentioned. 

      Similarly, Irving + Monroe + Brooks for lawson + marc gasol would be a tough sell. Maybe if you went Wall/Monroe it might be enough, depending on the other owner’s opinion of Wall. 

      Of course, it doesn’t hurt just to throw a trade out there and see what happens, even if it’s somewhat of a low ball offer.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      I live in Maine, runway models might as well be flying rainbow unicorns to me.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      No love for Arron Afflalo? He’s starting to turn things around after a bad start to the season. I love James Johnson, but the minutes are all over the place for him and he got some extra run this past week due to some Raptors blowout games. JJ does currently rank higher on the rater than Afflalo, but I suspect that will change over the next couple of weeks.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Hey Kevin, thanks for the kind words! Anyway, this is what you can expect your team to average in a week using a combo of our 2011-12 stat projections and the current season stats. (assuming Wright is on your bench and Hedo is playing) 

      pts 503
      reb 203
      ast 153
      stl 44
      blk 27
      to 84
      3pm 32
      fgp 45%
      ftp 77%

      And here is what the average team in your league looks like.

      pts 533
      reb 215
      ast 118
      stl 42
      blk 27
      to 73
      3pm 34
      fgp 46%
      ftp 76%

      Yeah, as Nels mentioned, you’ve had some bad, bad luck so far. The good news is that you said you played in a weekly changes league, so I don’t necessarily think you have to get rid of Manu as Nels suggested. You can ride out an injury like that in a weekly changes league. That’s good, cause Manu fits your team.

      As far as your stats go, your strengths right now with the guys you have include assists and… well that’s about it. Steals, blocks, threes and the percentages are toss-up categories, so at least you are close there. As Nels said, you can certainly go small with this team. In that case, look to see if you can get anything for Tim Duncan and Emeka Okafor, since they fit the worst in a small ball team. If you can find forwards/centers who can hit the three have decent percentages and maybe can board, that would be ideal. 

      It might take some work, but I think you can right the ship with this team. 

    • Anonymous

      PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT -
      PROTECT YOUR ROSTER.  Joakim Noah has contracted a nasty case of Dorell
      Wright disease.  Who knows which fantasy hoops high draftee will come down
      w/ this insidious malady next?  The symptoms are clear:  No points on minimal shots over 25+ minutes
      of run.  While there’s not a straight
      forward cure, it is hoped that the player will snap out of the funk on his own.  However, the longer term solution is a
      dreaded waiver wire drop.  They shoot
      horses, don’t they?

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

      So what you’re saying is Maine is thick with flying rainbow unicorns? Is that new development? I didn’t see any when I was there a few years ago…

    • David

      Hey at least he got 8 rebound and 2 blocks yesterday. BUT NO SHOTS IN 25 MINUTES? Maybe it has something to do with his confidence level because his shooting has been horrendous, or that boozer has been red hot or both. I do think noah will turn it around sooner rather than later as he gets his confidence back. I see noah as a great buy low candidate right now. 

    • Gerald

      Thanks Patrick, have been pretty lucky with picks in mid to late rounds
      Your projections are eerily close to my actual production last week (except FT)!
      Proj / actuals
      pts 764 / 792
      reb 328 / 314
      ast 188 / 182
      stl 71 / 82
      blk 41 / 49
      to 116 / 112
      3pm 36 / 32
      fgp 46% / 48%ftp 75% / 70%

    • Jim

      Al Harrington was dropped (!) in my 12×14 league.  Apparently the owner doesn’t read this blog which forecasts a return to normal production for him.  This would be my last allowable move of the week, but I think I need to add him.  I sort of have a big-man team with Strengths: FG% (2nd), REB (1), STL (T4), BLK (2), TO (2) and Weaknesses: FT% (8), 3PT (9), AST (9), PTS (11).  Curry and Wright have really frustrated my little-man stats.  And the injuries to Lowry and Billups didn’t help.  I think Al would fit in famously.  Who do I drop?

      Barnes (just added)
      Mahinmi (just added)
      Jerebko (cooling off)

      Also, how much would you bid (out of $200) for him?  Is he a no-doubt ride-for-the-rest-of-the-season type of guy?

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Wow, a finicky owner if he dropped Harrington because of one bad game. I’d grab Harrington and drop Jerebko. We’ve got Harrington ranked around #80 on the rater in 9-cat leagues at the moment and my guess is that he rides out the year somewhere in the 100ish range overall (his shooting is going to cool off eventually). I wouldn’t say he’s a no-doubter ride it out guy, but the way he’s been playing this season he should be owned in all 12 team leagues. 

      I’m actually not too familiar with the ins and outs of FAAB bidding in fantasy basketball. Are the only guys you have to bid on at this point players who are dropped from other teams? If so, that’s relatively few guys you’d be bidding on during the year, so you might as well burn some of that budget. 

    • Jim

      Yes, the FAAB is only used for unowned players, so most of the money goes to dropped players and other unowned players (usually because they see an uptick in playing time due to injuries, etc).  Some recent wins: Tony Allen – $14, Speights – 10, Shumpert -11, Neal – 12, Chalmers -10 have been the only double-digit guys so far.  I’ll make a double-digit effort to get him.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Ok, makes sense. Yeah, I think he’s worth going at least $10 then. I was going to say $20, but I tend to be a big spender who ends the year with $0 (in fantasy football anyway).

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    • Anonymous

      Agree w/ you…think it’s early, Boozer has been strong and Noah may be finding his stroke, but very much think he’s a buy low grab if you can get him.  Personally, I’d hold vs. sell.  However, just don’t recall as many games as I’ve seen this year where reasonably fantasy high draft choices are taking so few shots over so many minutes.  Just seems strange to me.