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Day 21 of 124: Battle: Los Angeles

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Categorized as: Author: Patrick, Ballin Outta Control, Charlotte Bobcats, LA Clippers, LA Lakers, Player News
Posted on: January 15th, 2012

On a night where a certain man scored a certain 40+ points for a certain fourth game in a row, it was actually…

Line of the Night: Nicolas Batum (3.26) who got a rare 42 minutes off the Blazers’ bench (thanks to a little OT) and scored a season-high 29 points on 9-15 from the field, adding 6 threes, 8 rebounds and 4 blocks on the night. Batum is immensely talented and we at GMTR were expecting good things from him this season (ranking him at #78 going into the season). While his minutes have been all over the place so far this year, the recent Marcus Camby injury may actually open up some run for Batum going forward as the Blazers are forced to shift to a smaller lineup. He probably won’t be getting 40 minutes a game, but it will be interesting to see if he can get 30 while Camby is out.

Honorable Mentions: Kyle Lowry (2.18) jumped to the top of the GMTR player rater (over LeBron) with a 33 point, 8 rebound, 9 assist performance in that overtime game against the Blazers. Whether you consider him a sell high candidate or not, Lowry has clearly taken a step (or five) forward this year after his already huge 2010-11 season.

In the battle for the hearts of Los Angeles, Chris Paul (3.05) helped the Clippers put away the Lakers with 33 points, 3 threes, 6 assists and 3 steals. I believe the mercy rule had to be invoked on Derek Fisher’s defense in this one. Blake Griffin (0.86) also added 22 points, 14 boards and 5 assists in this game.

Kobe Bryant (2.83) did his part for the Lakers, scoring 42 points pretty efficiently (on 14-28 shooting), and adding 7 rebounds and 4 assists. Excluding Gasol and Bynum, the rest of the team scored a total of 26 points. If you own Kobe and didn’t win the points category this week, you may want to reevaluate your fantasy team.

After yesterday’s embarrassing game, JaVale McGee (2.66) bounced back with 23 points on 11-13 from the field, adding a very McGee-like 18 rebounds and 5 blocked shots. McGee has now taken the upper hand in the intense battle with DeAndre Jordan to lead the league in blocked shots.

Washington still lost the game big to the hot Sixers, who were led by Louis Williams (2.20) 24 points and 4 threes as well as Andre Iguodala (2.05), who had 23 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists and 5 steals. All these blowouts are not good news for Spencer Hawes owners. He is seeing his minutes greatly reduced recently because of that back injury and because the team isn’t playing many close games.

If Kemba Walker (2.25) happens to be available in your league, you may want to run out and grab him now that he’s starting for the Bobcats. Walker scored a career-high 23 points and added 5 assists in nearly 40 minutes on the court. Paul Silas was apparently unhappy with the lack of effort expended by Boris Diaw during the team’s recent losing streak (I know, I’m shocked too), so Diaw has been moved to the bench and Walker has been inserted at SG as the team has gone smaller. Walker is only about 6 feet tall, so we’ll see if the Bobcats can roll with both the undersized Augustin and Walker at both guard positions, but hey, it worked last night so expect to see this lineup for a while.

The Ricky Rubio (2.23) – 18 points, 12 assists and 5 steals – and Kevin Love (2.10) – 30 points and 13 rebounds – connection is full speed ahead. Count us as one of the many places who underestimated Ricky Rubio coming into the season. It’s just that his Euroleague stats were soooo underwhelming. And his shooting, which was supposed to be his big weakness, is actually above average for a guard so far (he’s at 46% from the field this season).

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Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Gustavo Ayon (1.43). GUSTAVO! I wouldn’t necessarily say that I’m an encyclopedia of NBA knowledge, but I do write about the NBA everyday, and I had not heard of Gustavo before. When you Google him, the big story that comes up is about the Mexican Ayon waiting for a work visa so he could join the New Orleans Hornets this season. Well, that visa must have come through, because Ayon has now played 6 games for the Hornets, including last night’s 9 points 7 rebound, 5 assist, 2 block game in 20 minutes off the bench. I wouldn’t run out and add Ayon, but his minutes are slowly creeping up and his competition at PF is the underwhelming and injury prone Chris Kaman. Do me a favor and keep him on your watch lists to see if his minutes continue to grow.


Gustavo wants YOU!

Pick Up Lines: I should have mentioned that Kaman was benched after bringing the weak sauce against the Grizzlies (and Emeka Okafor got fewer minutes than normal as well), giving both Ayon and PF/C Jason Smith (1.24) time to shine in an almost comeback against the Grizzlies. Smith had 15 points, 10 rebounds and 3 blocks in 27 minutes off the bench. The minutes were a season high for him, so as with Ayon, I would not grab him right now. Shockingly, the Hornets are actually too deep at the position for these guys to get consistent minutes.

With all this Zaza Pachulia talk, could it be the 27-year old rookie PF Ivan Johnson (1.16) who really benefits from the Al Horford injury? Johnson got 26 minutes of run off the bench for the Hawks and double-doubled with 10 points, 11 rebounds and 2 steals. Johnson is the mirror opposite of Pachulia and gives the team some much needed toughness. In fact, during his many journeys around the world before making it to the NBA, Johnson was “benched a game in the D-League last year for receiving too many technical fouls and has a lifetime ban being held against him in Korea for flipping off an official”. I wouldn’t want to own him over Zaza (yet), but if you have the roster spot, speculation grab him for now to see if he can keep it up, especially if you are an owner who just lost Horford.

Quick Hits: Wayne Ellington (1.18) scored 13 points on 6-9 shooting in 30 minutes off the bench for Minnesota. It’s only the third time he’s scored more than 11 points all season, which is not good if you’re a “shooting” guard. Leave him on waivers.

Byron Mullens (1.02) continues to impress with 20 points and 7 rebounds against the Warriors. Technically, he’s still available in 60% of Yahoo leagues, but probably not if you read this blog.

Josh Harrellson (0.96) had 12 points and 3 steals in 20 minutes off the bench for the Knicks. He’s doing just enough to be look a look in huge 16+ team leagues, but any real value won’t come unless Amare were to get hurt.

Taj Gibson (0.69) had 11 points and 12 boards off the bench for the Bulls in a win over the Raptors. He’s always been a per-36 minute stat beast, but his minutes off the bench are too inconsistent to be worth a pickup.

Jermaine O’Neal (0.54) finished with 12 boards and 3 blocks in 26 minutes for the Celtics. He’s only worth a look if you need to add some blocks to your team. Or happen to own a time machine that can take him back to the early 2000′s.

Biggest Loser: In the battle of teams playing their fourth game in five nights, the Kings got blown out for the fifth time this season, losing to the Mavs 99-60. Tyreke Evans (-1.17) was one of the many, many reasons why. He was 1-8 from the field and finished with 3 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists and 4 turnovers in 31 minutes on the court. At least he had been playing well leading up to this game.

***

Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.

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  • Anonymous

    Good analysis on Batum. As a Felton owner I like the dude’s abilities out there. Hope it makes Felton dish and D more than shoot. As a Matthews owner, I’m a little more concerned now about another mouf to feed on the Blazers besides Crawford eating minutes. Do you think more Batum means less Matthews, and should I try to move Matthews? I can’t believe he’s averaging 2 three’s per game when I swear I only see 1 made everytime I look at the box score.

     

  • Anonymous

    Hey Patrick can you run an analysis on my team again to see how I stack up now? You did a few days ago (1/9 IIRC) and now I’ve changed a few things with Horford out for the season. Finding out I’m taking a hit on scoring/rebounds but am recovering on 3′s and blocks (Rjeff and Ryno Anderson are pulling it off).

     

    12 team, 9 cats (standard), daily roster swaps.

    PG Lawson
    SG Matthews
    G Jack
    SF LeBron
    PF Nene
    F Gay
    C Biedrens
    Util Ryan Anderson
    Util Jefferson
    Bench Tony Parker
    Bench Varejao
    Bench Tyrus Thomas
    Bench Felton

    Am curious what you think about this – we don’t have an IR in our league (I like 1 IR spot but was voted down – how do you guys feel about IR?) so the poor guys who drafted B. Lopez and Z. Randolph dropped them instead of holding. I’m sure I’m not the only one in my league chomping at the bit to swoop/grab them off waivers around wk 5-6 but am worried someone might get the drop on me. I may pick them up sooner than later like end of week 4 but don’t relish the idea of 11 players going ag. 13 players for a few weeks.

    If I added them both to my team & dropped say Tyrus and Biedrens, how do you think my team would hold up with only 11 active players for a week/two until Lopez/Randolph got back to speed? Can you run another analysis on the above team without Tyrus and Biedrens?

    I’m looking at a 21-6 or 22-5 record going into week 4 – I think I could go 4-5 or 3-6 at worst for a few weeks and look pretty strong come playoffs. There’s about 3 strong teams (including mine) & 4-5 decent teams in my league and I’d be playing the good team wk 5 & both strong teams in wks 7/8. It wouldn’t be pretty but as I said before with Lopez/Randolph added to my team I think I’d be the favorite to win the champ. Short term pain for long term gains? Thoughts on the possible stratagem?

  • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

    I disagree about Harrelson. I’ve picked him up in 2 leagues where he fit well with my team. Look at this 3-pointers in addition to the points and rebounds. I can see some steals and blocks creeping in there if he gets consistent with the 26-28 minutes he’s gotten recently.

  • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

    Yeah, not a problem. Here is what I have for your team in the average week with Thomas and Biedrens.

    pts 717
    reb 276
    ast 175
    stl 57
    blk 31
    to 95
    3pm 43
    fgp 47%
    ftp 76%

    And here is the average team in the league.

    pts 650
    reb 263
    ast 142
    stl 52
    blk 31
    to 92
    3pm 42
    fgp 45%
    ftp 76%

    So I’ve got you as strong in points, assists, steals, FG% and a toss-up in just about everything else. I can see why you’re near the top of your league. And to answer your question, this is what you’d look like running 11 deep:

    pts 664
    reb 233
    ast 170
    stl 52
    blk 20
    to 88
    3pm 43
    fgp 47%
    ftp 76%

    Big hits in points, boards and blocks, but everything else holds up pretty good. By holding onto Lopez and Randolph, you’ll basically turn your team in an average one (a lot of 4-5 or 5-4 weeks). Still, all you have to do is make it to the playoffs and then you’ll be all set, so I say go and stash those guys (especially Lopez who will be back sooner). Your goal is to be as strong as possible come playoff time, it doesn’t matter what seed you are. Looks like your team can hold on ok with only 11 guys.

    In general, I’m cool with an IR slot in leagues, although the leagues I typically play in don’t have them. I don’t like the idea of punishing guys who happen to have a big injury to one of their man guys. I mean, it’s not like the Hawks have to release Al Horford because he got injured. Why do the same thing to fantasy teams?

  • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

    I’m by no mean an expert on the Blazers, but I don’t necessarily think that an increase in Batum’s production necessarily means reduced time for Matthews. Matthews saw 34 minutes last night to Batum’s 42, which is right in line with his season average. Marcus Camby is supposedly in “a lot of pain” and is going to be out for a while with an ankle injury and McMillan has talked about going small and starting Batum in his place. So at least for now, the two should be able to live in harmony together. If Batum explodes in a starting role it could mean bad things for Matthews when Camby returns, but that is a lot of IFs to worry about too much at the moment.

  • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

    And Felton is one of those guys that every time I watch him he has a horrible game, so I have this skewed view of him in my head. I’m sure everyone has one of those guys. 

    But looking at his stats, Felton is shooting 36% this season, so maybe I’m not just seeing the bad games.

  • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

    Fair enough, and you’re right if you picked up Harrelson to use this week you got a nice run of games where he shot over 50% from three. Going forward, I’m not quite as loving him, unless he can magically keep hitting that three 60% of the time.

  • GregSchulz

    Would you all trade Josh Smith to get Stephen Curry? It fits my team well, but I’m not sure if it is worth the risk. We have an IR spot in my league, but I have Manu in it for now.. Thanks

  • Anonymous

    Matthews will get plenty of minutes this season with Roy gone. His stat line is a little empty, though, where Nic generally gives you a block an assist and a steal when he gets minutes. I’d try see no issue moving Wesley, if you can, unless you need his points.

  • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

    As a Curry owner, I’d gladly take a trade for Josh Smith right now. So the flip side of that is the risk of trading for Curry is a bit too much in giving up Smith, at least in my opinion. Plus, the Horford injury likely means that Smith is in line for a big season. It’s close, but Curry’s ankle worries me a bit too much. 

  • Davo

    How much is Kobe worth???
    His owner has said I can have him for Dirk and Bosh.
    I asked for LeBron for those two and he’s talking Kobe instead.

    What do you think? Jump while the offer is there?

  • air max 90

    Kobe is old

  • Reader and Fan: Mr. Yang

    He’s playing out of his mind right now, personally I think you’re buying high and selling low on Dirk. Remind him that Kobe’s wrist, although “getting better” still requires surgery. 

  • Davo

    I’m trying to talk up to LeBron again which I think is a fair, although tough, trade. Doing my best to avoid the Kobe is old talk and focus on the extra points he will keep as all I want (what I’m telling him) is the extra assists (he can cover the 4 or so lost on the trade, I need them).

    So I can talk down the trade to Bosh & Anderson for Kobe and someone or talk up the Dirk & Bosh option for LeBron.

    I like the 2nd option better. Now how to convince him.

  • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

    Yeah, giving up Dirk and Bosh is definitely too much. Kobe is probably worth a second round pick straight up, and Dirk should end up as a second round pick at the end of the season, so you’d be trading a second rounder and a third rounder for a second rounder. Dirk and Bosh aren’t playing THAT bad.

  • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

    I’m with Patrick, I’d definitely rather have Smith than Curry. In fact, I have Curry… will you give me Josh Smith for him, please?????

  • Davo

    I agree. Do you think LeBron for Dirk & Bosh is worth it though?
    Moreso from his side – how do I make teh best case for that.

  • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

    Is the trade worth it for you? It depends on who you are going to replace the second player in that trade with, but the answer is probably yes. Even if we assume that Dirk will bounce back to what we expect from him as the season goes on, I have you in the 2-for-1 losing about 11 points, 6 rebounds, a block a game and a lot of FT%. However, LeBron out assists those two guys by himself by 3 a game and you’ll gain like 0.2 steals a game as well. But you also free up a roster spot. So as long as you can replace Dirk/Bosh with someone who averages say 10-11 points, 5-6 boards and a block a game (say.. Zaza Pachulia), you’ll gain some assists at the cost of free throw percentage.

    And if Dirk doesn’t bounce back or if you have someone better to put in that roster spot than a Zaza type, you’ll clearly win the trade.

    As far as how you make the case to the other owner, that I’m not so sure about. If he has some injured guys, you can always try and sell him on the depth he’ll get with the trade, but hopefully you’re a good salesman. 

  • Davo

    Tell me if I’m crazy, but what about Rose and Noah for LeBron and someone. Really make it look like a BIG win to him.
    BUT, with the schedule I would get 2 extra LeBrons over the year plus if I time it right, one extra this week. And I get 2 extra Bosh’s over Noah.

    How’s that for sneaky competitive advantage?