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  • GMTR Podcast #25: The Kobe System

    Author Icon for Patrick

    Categorized as: Author: Erik, Author: Patrick, Podcast
    Posted on: January 16th, 2012

    Erik and Patrick discuss Kobe Bryant’s streak of 40+ point scoring games, the Al Horford injury, the imminent return of Stephen Curry and Baron Davis, and talk about strategies that fantasy owners can use to survive if they’ve been decimated by injuries.

    You’re welcome.

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    Spoiler Alert Ahead!

    If you can’t listen to the podcast, here are our waiver wire recommendations.

    • Baron Davis
    • Samuel Dalembert
    • Mehmet Okur
    • Kawhi Leonard
    • Michael Redd (deeeeeeeeep leagues)

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    • Reader and Fan: Mr. Yang

      FINALLY, John Wall has FINALLY strung together two great games. It finally looks like I may be able to move him. I was just wondering which Centers I could target in a 1 for 1 or 2 for 1? Are Javale, Monroe, Gortat all viable candidates? Anyone else? 

    • Asdfasdf

      What the hell do I do w/ Amare Stoudemire? His play has been ATROCIOUS.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

      Lately, you can add Marc Gasol to that list. While hot, you can get a “+1″ along with Monroe, Gasol, and Gortat in exchange for your Wall.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

      Ever since Melo was acquired by the Knicks, I never wanted to touch stat. Weirdly enough, Melo’s amount of touches and his iso plays kind of run counter to what D’Antoni has been trying to set up. Wait for Amar’e to get on a hot streak, then trade him like a hot potato.

    • Asdfasdf

      My thoughts exactly, but he hasn’t had anything near a hot streak. Drafted before Tyson was brought over to New York. Was hoping for Stoud to get all Carmelo’s put backs. Out in PF land he’s just garbage now. Plus I’m in a 14man league on yahoo of all interfaces. 4 vetos is all that’s required. Pretty impossible for anything to get through since the top4 teams will just veto everything out of fear. Kill myself. -_-;

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

      Sorry to hear about that. Political ownage seeps into fantasy hoops as well. Ah how the rich get richer… Have you considered just trading him to one of the Top 4 teams?

    • David

      Hey guys what do you think about Amare and Mullens for G Wallace and T Chanlder. I have amare and mullens. Thats no brainier right? 

    • Gg

      Hi guys! I just recently found your blog and I’m very impressed with your analysis and expertise. I was wondering if you could give me an opinion of my team right now. I am a second year fantasy basketball player playing in a Yahoo! league H2H  12 team 13 players.

      john wall
      nicolas batum
      tony parker
      joe johnson
      kyrie irving
      eric gordon
      kevin durant
      amir johnson
      ryan anderson
      greg monroe
      andrea barganani
      richard jefferson
      chandler parsons

      i feel like i have a pretty good team as i am sitting at 18-9 right now. what do you think are my strengths and weaknesses and what should i do right now? Also, if and when do you think i should pick up brook lopez, he is a free agent right now in my league? finally, i feel like a great way to improve my team is to offer two of my players for one player on another team but i havent had any luck getting someone to agree. do you have any tips for that? thanks for your time!

    • Terrance

      looking to trade carmelo in a deep 15 man roster league. My bench is solid up til the 15th spot (jonas jerebko).

      I’m a big fan of trading a top star for two mediocre players (joe johnson, pierce/j.jack). I wouldn’t normally do something like this in a standard league, but it worked for me last year when i traded m. ellis for scola and joe johnson. My team 180′d from there and took the title.

      Thoughts on this idea of trading carmelo? I also have s. curry, but I can’t see the demand there for him to warrant to 40-80 rated players.

    • Terrance

      two

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      I assumed that it’d be a no-brainer too, but looking at the numbers it’s a little closer than I was expecting. Still, unless Amare reverts to his pre-Melo self and Mullens becomes a 20 ppg scorer, you’ll come out ahead. Based on their performances so far this season (and using Mullens’ stats as a starter), your giving up 6-8 points a game and some FT% for 1 board, 2 assists, a steal and a block a game. If you can afford to give up the points, I’d make that trade.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

      Gg,

      Nice team! Anderson and Monroe are huge value boosts on your squad and I think you can afford to grab Lopez. Ideally the time to stash Lopez is when Eric Gordon has returned to help your team. The problem with that is that we are in the dark on his status. IF you’re in a weekly league, I’d grab Brook as early as now.

      I dropped a heating up Dalembert for Bro-Lo in a 10-man, roto league with only 2 bench a couple of days ago. Lopez is keeping sharp and has been healthy prior to this injury. He should come back strong.

      The only guy I’m not too fond of on your roster is John Wall. Maybe I’ll warm up to him in a year or two. But on bad nights, I can see him dragging down your FG% and hurting TOs. I would get a lower profile guy + “X” for Wall. Like say a Mike Conley + 1 for Wall and your least productive guy for example.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Hey Gg, thanks for the kind words about the site. Running your team through the analyzer and this is what I get for your team’s averages in a week (assuming Eric Gordon is healthy). 

      pts 821
      reb 263
      ast 160
      stl 47
      blk 32
      to 102
      3pm 59
      fgp 46%
      ftp 81%

      And here is what the average team in your league looks like:

      pts 663
      reb 267
      ast 145
      stl 53
      blk 32
      to 93
      3pm 43
      fgp 46%
      ftp 76%

      Considering you haven’t gotten much out of Gordon so far this year, I say great job even getting to 18-9. Again, assuming that you are healthy, you’ve got a killer team as far as points go with Durant, Gordon, Bargs and JJ. You’re also a pretty good assist team, have some good three numbers (Ryan Anderson is carrying your team on his back there) and nice FT%. Your only real weakness is TOs, but most everything else appears to be toss-up categories. You could certainly afford to give up some points for rebounds/blocks if you wanted to, although Brook Lopez might solve that problem  without a trade.  

      In regard to Lopez, he still has no timetable for return, but is expected back sometime between the beginning and middle of February. So if you stashed him now, there is a chance you’d have to sit on him for over a month. Looks like your team is good enough to hold onto Lopez, but I’d suggest waiting until Gordon gets back on the court so you don’t have to sit on two injured guys. 

      2-for-1 trades are indeed a great way to improve your team if you’ve got a deep bench. The problem is that everyone tries them, and dubious 2-1 deals often get thrown around leagues all the time. As a result owners are often wary of 2-for-1′s and you’ll typically have to give up two very good players to get a slightly better one in a 2-for-1 deal. Keep trying , but chances are you’ll have to give up more value than you expect to get a 2 for 1 done.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      How does your team this year compare to the one you had last year? I think trading away a star for two lesser players can work (in fact Erik talks about using this very strategy in our podcast this week) although it helps the most when your bench sucks and the second guy your getting in the trade is replacing someone really bad that you’ve been forced to use (often due to injury). If you’ve already got a strong bench, I like the strategy less. 

      In regard to Melo specifically, we had him ranked right around 12 going into the season and it appears that he’s 12th on our rater currently, so he’s doing exactly what we thought he would. I’d guess that he has some good trade value in most leagues (and like you said, more than Curry at the moment) and you could probably get a couple good players for him if you tried. 

    • Zee

      Wait huh? Some places I’ve seen are advocating a buy low on Stoudemire, because he can’t play this bad forever right?
      What do you think of a David West + Jason Terry offer for Stoudemire?

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

      Yes, he will recover. So on that point, he IS a buy low candidate. But the way I see it, his recovery potential is capped. He can become a must-start PF again. But to expect him to return to his elite, pre-Melo form is just a hogwash. A complex scenario for him to be great, would entail Baron playing healthy and Melo going down due to injury. Then Stat can return to being the under-the-rim finisher he once was.

    • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_CO77Q3BA73DN4PH2KGO2NLQDHA Mashimaro

      Hi, 

      My Team in 11-team rottisseire. Currently, leading by 6 points.

      Kevin Love
      David Lee
      Andre Iguodala
      Kyle Lowry
      Danilo Gallinari
      Andray Blatche
      Lamar Odom
      Boris Diaw
      Daren Collision
      Carlos Delfino
      Dejuan Blair
      Al Harrington
      Markieff Morris

      I am thinking of Iguodala for Steve Nash. What you guys think?

    • helpmepls

      Hi guys, have been an avid reader and am quite impressed. I’m in a bit of a pickle and my team is currently 13th(9-18) out of 14 teams in my league. Criticisms and analysis would very much be welcome. This is a H2h 9-cat league 10 players per week. This is my current lineup:
      Derrick Rose
      Dorell Wright
      Jason Kidd
      Shawn Marion
      Josh Smith
      Nicolas Batum
      Channing Frye
      Udonis Haslem
      James Harden
      Markieff Morris
      Trevor Ariza
      Chuck Hayes
      Andris Biedrins

      I believe that a lot of changes should be made to my lineup probably doing some trades although, I’m not sure what I should be looking for at this point. I really need help please! Thanks!

    • Bb

      drop Zaza for Parsons?

    • Bb

      or Barnes for B.Davis?

    • Bb

      or better look at my team and tell what’d I change? Thaks a lot.

      PG
       
      Mike Conley
      (Mem – PG) 

       

      SG
       
      Dorell Wright
      (GS – SG,SF) 

      G
       
      Jared Dudley
      (Pho – SG,SF) 

      SF
       
      LeBron James
      (Mia – SF,PF) 

      PF
       
      Kris Humphries
      (NJ – PF) 

       

      F
       
      Josh Smith
      (Atl – SF,PF) 

       

      C
       
      Zaza Pachulia
      (Atl – C) 

       

      C
       
      Greg Monroe
      (Det – C) 

      Util
       
      Jason Kidd
      (Dal – PG) 

       

      Util
       
      Eric Gordon
      (NO – SG) INJ 

       

      BN
       
      Jarrett Jack
      (NO – PG,SG) 

       

      BN
       
      Matt Barnes
      (LAL – SG,SF) 

       

      BN
       
      Anthony Morrow
      (NJ – SG,SF) 

       

      BN
       
      Brook Lopez
      (NJ – C) INJ 

       

      BN
       
      Paul George
      (Ind – SG,SF)

       

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Yes and yes! Definitely the Parsons move, and yes on Davis as long as you can afford to sit on him a couple weeks. 

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Looking at your team’s totals on a per game basis, I’ve got you as strong in boards, steals and threes and about mid of the road in everything else (let me know if I’m way off on anything there). Nash would give you a huge bump in assists and percentages at the cost of rebounds, steals, blocks and TOs. I do like the idea of trying to add some assists to your team to complement Lowry, but based on the way AI has played this year, I think that is a lot to give up for Nash. I would really want to do it, I think Nash +1 would be fair for Iguodala.

      In terms of other moves, I’d look to drop Odom if you can. He’s been so bad that he’s a percentage killer while not really contributing much of anything. I’ll keep preaching the good word of Chandler Parsons if he’s available as a replacement. Boris Diaw’s demotion might also cause some problems down the road. I don’t think he has much trade value at this point, just hope he gets back in Paul Silas’ good graces. 

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Ok, maybe you can’t afford to wait on Davis with both Gordon and Lopez on your team. If you want to risk someone else picking up Davis, wait until Gordon returns to the court to add him. If not, you can pick him up and take the beating this week and possibly next. It may depend on your team’s record, but the goal is just to make it to the playoffs (doesn’t matter what seed) and have the strongest team possible when you get there. 

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Hey helpmepls – I like the name! Thanks for the kind words about the site, we’ll see what we can do to help you. You said you start 10 players per week, so I am going to assume this is a weekly changes league. Let me know if this is not the case. So, based 80% on the current season stats and 20% our out projections going into the year, here is what I have your team averaging per week in terms of stats (assuming you’ve got a healthy team and Dorell Wright backs back a little from his horrible slump). 

      pts 475
      reb 225
      ast 113
      stl 39
      blk 23
      to 60
      3pm 41
      fgp 43%
      ftp 80%

      And here is about what the average team in your league should do.

      pts 516
      reb 207
      ast 114
      stl 41
      blk 25
      to 73
      3pm 33
      fgp 46%
      ftp 76%

      You’ve obviously been hit bad by the underperformance bug with Dorell Wright, Frye and to a lesser extent Kidd. The good news is Wright is sort of improving, so you should be in better shape there. And in a perfect world, your team does actually have some strengths – rebounds, threes, TOs and FT%, so you have something to build off of. 

      Since you don’t have any assist men other then Rose and Kidd, my drastic blow everything up suggestion would be to forget about assists and probably steals and focus in on the big man stats – points/boards/blocks/TOs percentages and threes for your guards. That means – get ready – time to trade Rose away. Look for a top tier big in return, say Kevin Love or Marc Gasol + another mid round player (maybe a scorer/three point shooter). Kidd could also be traded away for a much less impressive haul.

      It sounds drastic, but I think your team needs a new direction. You don’t have enough talent at the moment to compete in every category, so focus big and build off Smith since the rest of your team is built to support a big ball team. 

    • helpmepls

      Thanks for the advice. Will definitely try to shop D.Rose. Will hopefully be back with good news. Thanks! 

    • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_CO77Q3BA73DN4PH2KGO2NLQDHA Mashimaro

      Hi Patrick, 

      My sentiments too. You are spot on for the standings. We are on the same page. I actually JUST traded Marshon Brooks for Lamar Odom. Haha… I have Chandler Parsons before I drop him for Dejuan Blair… Looks like I will most likely drop Odom for Parsons. 

      The reason for the trade is that I am leading way off for the 3 cats. 30 threes, 70 boards and 20 steals at this moment and I was thinking of sacrificing a bit for the assist. 

      Anyway, I would like to know more about your “Analyzer”, is there anyway, we can use it or do we have to post here to get you to do it? 

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      If I ever get the free time, I plan to code in the “analyzer” into the GMTR player rater since I’m just using data that is available from our rater and our preseason projections. But until I do, I’m forced to do all the math myself. It’s fun, but time consuming :)