Day 23 of 124: Off the Wall

Categorized as: Author: Patrick, Ballin Outta Control, Fantasy Basketball, NBA Teams, Washington Wizards
Posted on: January 17th, 2012

Line of the Night: As long as we’re partying like it’s the year 2006, Joe Johnson (2.89) is crashing that party. On a night where a few guys blew up (more on that below) JJ scored 27 points against the not-exactly-defensively-inclined DeMar DeRozan and the Raptors, and filled up the box score with 3 threes, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals and 3 blocks in 36 minutes. One reason to be encouraged if you’re a Johnson owner: since the Al Horford injury, Johnson has had scoring games of 23, 25, and 27 points.

Honorable Mentions: The Sixers continue to look like one of the NBA’s best teams with a win over the Bucks and continue to be led by the surging Andre Iguodala (2.87), who finished the game with 21 points, 7 boards, 4 assists, 3 steals and 2 blocks in 42 minutes on the court. Jrue Holiday (2.24) added 24 points on 11-17 shooting, with 5 assists and 5 steals and Spencer Hawes (0.59) made sure the love was spread around with 11 points, 10 boards and 2 blocks. Andrew Bogut (1.30) had a 20 and 11 with 3 blocks for the Bucks. But the rest of that Milwaukee starting lineup? Ugly.

John Wall’s (2.79) owners are dancing this morning thanks to a career-high 38 points, with 6 rebounds, 8 assists and 4 steals against the Rockets. I didn’t see the game, but I can only assume that Wall and the Wiz finally realized that Nick Young shouldn’t be the team’s primary facilitator. This performance is by far Wall’s best game of the season and the optimist in me wants to think that this is the start of a run for Wall, but I wouldn’t talk anyone out trying to sell high on Wall after this game. Bullets Forever uses a combination of tai chi and A-Team metaphors to attempt to explain the fact that Wall has become predictable to opposing teams and that’ll he’ll need to adapt his game to get out of his funk. I’m not sure they 100% get there, but I’ll read about B.A. Baracus any day of the week.

***

Ryan Anderson (2.55) continues his breakout season by channeling the ghost of Channing Frye to finish with 30 points – on 7 of 13 from three – and adding 7 rebounds against the Knicks. Anderson is leading the league by a large margin with 3.6 threes made/game, which is not exactly classic fantasy team building, but roll with it if you own Anderson.

There were a number of other great fantasy performances thanks to 11 NBA games last night. Kevin Durant (2.26) – with 28 points and 7 boards – and Russell Westbrook (1.85) – with 26 points, 7 boards and 3 steals – did their part to dismantle the Celtics. Kevin Love (2.15) had another ho-hum 33 points, 11 rebound game thanks to the Sacramento Kings, Mike Conley (1.93) had a near triple-double with 20 points, 7 rebounds, 8 assists and 4 steals. And Josh Smith (1.29) continued his strong play post-Al Horford with 28 points and 15 boards.

I could go on, but there is still a lot to talk about, including…

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Technically, it’s Luke Ridnour (2.66), who scored 25 points and dished 9 assists to only 1 turnover starting alongside Ricky Rubio in the Wolves’ backcourt. Instead of Rubio burying Ridnour as I think most people expected, he’s getting as much run as he has at any point in his career (over 35+ minutes a game recently) thanks to the Wolves’ lack of shooting guard options. Ridnour is currently 34% owned in Yahoo leagues, but as long as he keeps playing alongside Rubio, he should be picked up in all 12+ leagues.

Pick Up Lines: Thabo Sefolosha (2.13) just wanted to remind everyone that not only does he still exist, but that’s he’s still the starting SG for the Thunder. Against the Big-AARP Boston Celtics, Sefolosha played a season high 34 minutes and scored 19 points on 7-9 shooting, with 5 rebounds and 4 steals. Expect his minutes and production to quickly drop back down to that 20 minute a game range he’s been averaging this season and leave him on waivers for now.

The Bulls’ Taj Gibson (1.64) went for 16 and 5 with 2 steals and 3 blocks in only 25 minutes on the court. Gibson has been burning it up on a per-minute basis recently, but the extra run last night was due to the Rose-less Bulls getting beat badly by the Grizzlies. He’s worth a look in deep leagues and becomes an immediate add if Carlos Boozer were to ever get hurt. Strike that, I mean when he gets hurt.

Good to see that someone finally told Ed Davis (1.13) the season is actually underway. Starting in place of the injured Andrea Bargnani for the third straight game, Davis scored 7 points, grabbed 11 rebounds and added 3 steals and 4 blocks in 40 minutes on the court. It’s good indication of what Davis can do when he’s at his best, although Bargnani is day-to-day and should return to the court soon, pushing Davis back to a 17-20 minute a game reserve role.

GUSTAVO! GMTR favorite Gustavo Ayon (1.13) scored 8 points, adding 5 rebounds, 2 steals and 2 blocks in only 20 minutes off the bench for the Hornets. The early reviews on Ayon are good – sounds like a plus defensive guy who’d win some Tommy points – and I would not be surprised to see him continue to see an increased role on the Hornets as the season roles on. Chris Kaman (0.34) was moved to the bench in this game because of his underwhelming play so far this season. Jason Smith (-0.74) started, but only saw 12 minutes and didn’t do much of anything, while Kaman most minutes at the PF position (24) and had the best offensive game of the three. New Orleans, you are officially a mess.

Quick Hits: Nels may not want to hear this, but Chandler Parsons (1.08) had another solid game for Houston – 8 points, 8 boards, 4 assists, a couple blocks and one nut sack to the face of JaVale McGee – and remains available in over 80% of leagues. Here’s my proposal: If the world can collectively get his fantasy ownership levels above 50%, we’ll stop talking about him.

Jermaine O’Neal (1.00) double-doubled with 12 and 11 against Kendrick Perkins and the OKC. That’s now 23 rebounds in the Celtics’ last two games. He’s worth a watch if you’re hurting for center help, but I remain dubious of his ability to both remain healthy and play with any type of consistency at this point in his career.

Mehmet Okur (0.98) scored 16 points on 3-6 from three. If you happen to need a center who is basically a three-point specialist, Okur is totally your guy.

Marreese Speights (0.75) had 16 and 12 in the Grizzlies big win over the Bulls. For anyone who is new to the pleasure of owning Speights, it’s sort of like if a roller coaster could ride another roller coaster while in a tilt-a-whirl. If you own him, he’s the type of guy you just have to play every night and live with the consequences – good or bad.

Randy Foye (0.64) got the start for the Clippers in place of the injured Chris Paul and responded with a bad karaoke version of Paul – 6 for 17 from the floor, for 13 points, 10 assists and 5 turnovers. Foye has some value while Paul is out – which should not be long.

Omri Casspi (0.87) – a minor GMTR sleeper going into the year – struggled through injuries and an inability to hit the three at the beginning of the season. I’m not going to say that’s he’s turned it around just yet – but yesterday’s 14 and 7 in 25 minutes against the Bobcats was at least a step in the right direction. Keep him on your watch lists.

Biggest Loser: In addition to the aforementioned defense against Joe Johnson, DeMar DeRozan (-1.00) managed to score an empty 10 points on 5-17 from the field against the Hawks. DeRozan is still just 21 years old and has had a lot of “learning opportunities” while on on the court this year. He’s also shooting just 41% from the floor and has taken a step back from where a lot of people expected him to be this season.

With Rose out, Joakim Noah (-0.70) should have been able to step his game up, right? Nah. Noah had 2 points and 5 rebounds in 22 minutes on the court and is disappearing faster than Dikembe Mutombo’s $10 million of gold.

***

Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.

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Tags: Andre Iguodala, DeMar DeRozan, Ed Davis, Gustavo Ayon, Joakim Noah, Joe Johnson, John Wall, Kevin Love, Luke Ridnour, Marreese Speights, Ryan Anderson, Taj Gibson, Thabo Sefolosha

bigfun

deep league. time to let Derrick Williams go? i can’t take it anymore.
http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

Might depend on how deep, but probably not. Unless it’s like a 30 man league, I would drop him and pick him up after a good game if you want.
bigfun

16team.. 13roster
TheEvilEmpire142

I absolutely LOVE your guys’ site. Its awesome input, and I really think that it’s built for hardcore fantasy players, not just casual fans. Awesome insight and thoughts. having said that, Im kinda screwed and was lookin for a little bit of help. I’m in a 12 team 13 man Yahoo 12 cat league, the cats being FGM, FG%, FTM, FT%, 3PM, 3P%, PTS, REB, AST, ST, BLK, TO. I currently reside 3rd, but after losing Manu, Drafting Curry 1st, and Bargnani bit by the injury bug, it really feels like im gonna hit a downward spiral pretty quickly. So, my question is, how exactly do you see my team panning out?

PG Stephen Curry
SG Monta Ellis
PG Mario Chalmers
SF Kawhi Leonard (just dropped Richard Jefferson to aquire)
PF Luis Scola
PF Channing Frye
C Byron Mullens
PF Chris Bosh
PF Taj Gibson (just dropped Jamal Crawford to aquire)
PG Jose Calderon
SG DeMar DeRozan
PG Jeff Teague
PF Andrea Bargnani

Now, I have a very quick trigger, perhaps to a fault, having dropped guys like Jefferson and Crawford for hotter waiver wire pickups. I most definetly will NOT lose any sleep over dropping Crawford, as he was destroying my percentages almost single-handedly ( along with Channing of course), but i dont know if Gibson was the right move. Im getting rocked in rebounds and blocks, obviously, and I took a shot in the dark. Was Gibson a good fit? or:

PF Mareese Speights
SG Leandro Barbosa
PF Brandon Bass
PF JJ Hickson
PG Ramon Sessions
SF Matt Barnes
C Jermaine O’neal
SG Brandon Rush
PF DJ White

As you can see, im PANICKING! Should I be? I wanted to ask you guys, as GMTR is my FIRST choice for Info, and i respect your guys’ points of view. So thanks in advance for your time, and keep up the great site!
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

As a rookie with an unclear role on the team, it’s safe to expect this all season from Williams. The most telling part of their team report is that Adelman doesn’t think he can play SF yet, which means very limited minutes for him behind Love.

So he’s very droppable even in a 16 team league provided you can actually find someone to replace him with.
BradM

Really struggling with the decision to pick up Baron Davis or not. What kind of stats do you guys expect out of him? With this being my first year I don’t really have any historical knowledge regarding Davis’s worth in the past (or expected worth this season).
slick

whats up fellas got an offer of me giving up wall for kemba and brandon knight..should i bite..wall being killin me but busted out last night..i would get to drop zaza as well.been trying to get JOHN BRICKWALL off my team for awhile now and nobody would bite.. what u think 14 team h2h 9cat daily changes
slick

whats up fellas got an offer of me giving up wall for kemba and brandon knight..should i bite..wall being killin me but busted out last night..i would get to drop zaza as well.been trying to get JOHN BRICKWALL off my team for awhile now and nobody would bite.. what u think 14 team h2h 9cat daily changes
http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

That’s a net positive trade, but you only gain in 4 categories… so really, you’re just getting bigger gains in 4 categories than you are losing in the other categories. I think now is not really the best time to trade Wall. If your team can’t win FG% or TOs because of him, then you either need change your team to adjust for the fact that you won’t win those cats, or you can take that trade and try to win Points, FG%, Three-Pointers and TOs.

You’re trading two guys with pretty low ceilings for potential for someone who could go from a Top 100 to a Top 50 player… But if you really can’t stand having him on your team, then, like I said, you will get significant gains in 4 categories.
slick

Thanks nels..im in last place at the moment due to injuries to two of my high fg% shooting bigs..wall has good assists numbers but he avg 4 to’s a game so his assist strengths are negated by weaknesse.. low fg,ft,to’s,no threes..he hasn’t helped me with his strengths.i feel knight and walker should at least match walls total assists for the week cuz washington SUCKS WITH NOT MUCH TALENT TO IMPROVE HIS NUMBERS WITH AND I WONT HAVE TO WATCH ANYMORE WIZARDS GAMES….
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

Thanks for the complements Evil! We’ll see what we can do to help you out. Ok, running the numbers using a combo of our preseason projections and the current season stats, this is what I get for your team averages on a weekly basis (assuming everyone is healthy, that Stephen Curry bounces back to what we expected from him before the year and that Channing Frye bounces back a little and is at least not pathetic).

pts 758
reb 245
ast 166
stl 51
blk 27
to 102
3pm 44
fgm 284
ftm 125
fgp 46%
ftp 80%

And here is what the average team should do in a week:

pts 658
reb 266
ast 144
stl 53
blk 32
to 93
3pm 43
fgm 246
ftm 123
fgp 46%
ftp 76%

The one stat I don’t have easy access to at the moment is 3pt%, but the rest should be there. Of course, your issue so far has been that you have a team on paper and a team you’ve been playing due to injuries. If you can get everyone on the court at the same time, you should be doing ok with pluses in points, assists, FGM and FT%.I don’t see you with any particularly weak categories, although boards, blocks and TOs are a bit below average.

The great thing about playing in a league with non-traditional categories is the ability to sneakily win them because most people have a tough time accurately evaluating those categories. A guy like Andrea Bargnani is built for this league since he’s scoring at a good clip and gets to the line. Fortunately, it sounds like he shouldn’t be out too much longer.

The categories I would focus in on in this league (based on the strengths you currently have and what I feel is easy to exploit) is points, assists, steals, threes and all of the shooting/percentages. So, I would strongly advise you to try strengthen your team in the area of FTM by picking up for trading for at least one guy who does that well. Your FGM is already a strength, which is good.

Was the Taj Gibson pickup a good one? Swapping him for Crawford gave you a few more boards, some blocks and better FG% at the costs of some points, assists, FT% and threes. Overall, I think the difference between the two is minimal and Crawford’s FG% is so bad that I agree it was a good idea to drop him.

Unfortunately, I don’t think Gibson does much for you. Even with him, you are still going to lose the board/block battle more often than not, so I’d rather see that spot go to someone who can push you over the top in some of the small ball stats you are sort of average in at the moment, like threes, steals and FTM.

Looking at the GMTR player rater (http://rater.givemetherock.com) and just searching for FGM, FGP, FTM, FT%, threes, TOs and steals some guys who might either be free agents in your league or could be bought cheaply include J.J. Redick, Chauncey Billups, Wesley Matthews and Marshon Brooks. Even Richard Jefferson isn’t a bad fit for those categories – you may want to pick him back up and drop Gibson. And if Curry gets hurt again, definitely grab Nate Robinson ASAP. He was build for this league. You can always check out the rater yourself and play around with the different cats to find guys available on your wire or potential trade targets.
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

I’m probably going to get a post up about this sometime soon, but based on my calculations, I’ve got him at something like:

pts: 15.2
reb: 2.8
ast: 7.5
stl: 1.4
blk: 0.6
3pt: 2.0
to: 3.1
FG%: 41.7%
FT%: 77.1%

The FG% is going to be the killer with Davis (as will the potential for him to get injured), but it’s not like you can just get 7.5 assists off the wire in most leagues. based on those stats, my back of the napkin calculation would put him somewhere in the 60-80 range overall on a per game basis.
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

Oh, and I should have mentioned that I projected his minutes at 33 a game, which is the same run that Amare and Chandler are currently getting.
bigfun

thanks.. question. 16 team, 12 roster, here are the cats: fgm fg% ftm ft% 3m 3% pts orebs drebs ast stls blks to’s whats the average numbers a team should be puttin up a week?
frustrated

What’s the take on Derozan? He had a decent start, and his 5 trey game had me hoping, but he’s regressed badly the last few weeks. I’m tired of subpar shooting nights and empty stat sheets. Can I justify dropping him in a 10 team league? Or maybe try to sell him to someone desperate for a shooting guard?
Velvet

Hi GMTR,

me again haha.
My current roster is:
Current RosterPG: Steve NashSG: Kevin MartinG: Ray AllenSF: Kevin DurantPF: David WestF: LaMarcus AldridgeC: Pau GasolC: Chris BoshUtil: Marcin GortatUtil: Roy HibbertBN: Samuel DalembertBN: Spencer Hawes
BN: Ryan Anderson

I have an overload of C,PF, F and I only have one SF (Durant). My plan was to be efficient in FT and FG, while also being competent in Points/Reb/Blocks/3s(more like ryan anderson XD). Pretty much gave up on assists and steals. I was wondering what SF or PG would complement my team? and if I were to get them which big should I let go. I want to get rid of david west but no one will take him straight up so I would likely have to package him with someone.

Thanks!!
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

Daily roster changes or weekly? if weekly, how many do you start?
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

From what I’m reading about DeRozan, it sounds like it’s part him struggling with his confidence at the moment and part Dwane Casey really slowing things down this season for the Raptors (they now play at one of the slowest paces in the league). I think DeRozan’s shooting will improve as the season goes on, but as long as the Raptors keep it slow he’ll have a tough time improving any on his solid sophomore season.

You’re in a tough spot because 1) DeRozen is just good enough to warrant owning in a 10 team league and 2) not good enough to have any trade value at the moment. So looks like you are stuck with him unless you just really get sick of those horrible shooting games and can find someone better on your wire.
Anonymous

Anyone have any thoughts on dropping Dudley for Blatche or Carl Landry? I’m just looking for overall production and have very little chance of winning 3 pointers either way every week.
TheEvilEmpire142

Wow. Thanks SOOO much for taking the time to anylize my team and giving me your input Patrick. AWESOME. I will definetly focus on another small ball player through the FA pool, and I had been keeping this site a secret from the other players in my leagues, but you guys deserve as many hits on your site as possible, so im gonna post a few league notes hyping GMTR! Seriously, thanks for the input, and lets go Steph Curry! (or I should say, “lets got Steph Currys’ ankle!”)
http://www.notepeek.com Orris B.

Landry has dropped in the lineup, so I’d say no on Carl. Blatche is a good option now that he’s healthy.
GregSchulz

Based on Ayon’s stats so far, his stats to start the year in the Euro-league, his early reviews, and the possibility that he might eventually average 20-28 minutes a game I kind of want to take a shot on him. However, it’s just a 10-teamer and my most dropable guys are Amir Johnson, Dudley, Frye, Scola and Dorrel Wright. If Ayon does get those minutes he could be similar to Amir Johnson, but more productive. However, I don’t really want to drop Amir and get nothing for him. So I am thinking about doing a 2 for 1 trade. Which of these trades would you be open to actually doing?

Scola and Amir for Lou Williams
Scola and Amir for Wesley Matthews
Scola and Amir for Nicolas Batum

Thanks
Anonymous

I’ll keep that in mind about Landry, thanks. I haven’t been following Blatche much but understand he’s had his issues with his personality. Any forseeable problems with minutes?
Davo

I’m getting completely owned in Assists currently and am thinking of offering Ryan Anderson as bait for a good assists guy.

Who do you think I could get in a straight swap?
I’ve had a sprinkling of interest from Calderons owner. On paper it looks lke a fair trade and the 8 extra assists Vs loss of 2 3pm, 4 boards and 7 points seems like a win.
Why an I second guessing making that offer??
http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

Blatche would be the lesser of those two evils. Dudley is just simply whelming at the moment, so you won’t be able to trade him away. Blatche, assuming his shoulder heals up, should end up the more consistent producer.
http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

Problem #1 – Shoulder may bother him now and again.
Problem #2 – The coach. Which everyone feels will be (or at least should be) rectified soon enough.

Outside of those two “issues” Blatche is Washington’s ONLY threat in the post. So they need him healthy, sane, and productive.
http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

Wesley Matthews, Lou-Will, then Batum. That’s my personal order of preference. Ayon is intriguing, but he has to get utilized and do well this week to continue piquing my interest.
http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

Personally, I don’t like it. I’m kinda happy for Calderon that he’s doing well so far, but the guy’s had a history of being injury prone and his production is currently bloated a bit by the absence of Jerryd Bayless. Ryan on the other hand is having a career year! To me it “feels” like trading away upside in exchange for risk.
Davo

Awesome explanation of what was in my head but I couldn’t nail down.
Thanks.
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

No problem, I could talk fantasy basketball all day long, so I am happy to help. Good luck this season and thanks for the referrals – although I don’t blame you if you wait until the end of the season to do it
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

The Davis post is now up. After crunching the numbers, he looks even better than I expected. He’s a must grab now in my opinion,

http://givemetherock.com/2012/01/18/what-to-expect-from-baron-davis-on-the-knicks/
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

This is what I have your team doing on a weekly basis

pts 815
reb 345
ast 135
stl 39
blk 46
to 96
3pm 44
fgp 50%
ftp 81%

And this is what your average opponent will do in a week.

pts 657
reb 264
ast 144
stl 53
blk 31
to 92
3pm 45
fgp 46%
ftp 76%

First off, your team aligns almost perfectly with your stated goals, so nice job there. You certainly do skew big, but I don’t think there is anything wrong with that. I guess the one area you could improve on with your guards would be threes to complement Anderson and Allen, two of the best three point shooters in the league. So for a SF/PG, I’d look for a good 3 point shooter with decent percentages.

You can afford to give up some points and rebounds in any deal, so moving West is a fine idea. The problem as you mentioned, is that he’s been a disappointment this season and he’ll be a hard guy to move. He’s currently ranked 84 on our rater, so he’s sort of in that no man’s land of too disappointing to trade, but too good to drop.

I personally might try and see if I could still sell high on Hawes. He’s cooled off a bit from his hot start and is dealing with two separate injuries at the moment, which scares me. However, I wouldn’t sell him off unless I could be something good in return – say a top 50-60 player.
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

I agree with Erik. I already like Ayon, but the Hornets currently have a lot of bodies to throw at that PF position. The big question is can he get enough minutes in that lineup to be a productive fantasy guy.
bigfun

daily. start 9
Dao Mi

quick HIT for last guy, 12-man league, Chandler Parsons or George Hill?

Here’s my team:

Mike Conley
Nicolas Batum
Luke Ridnour
Kevin Durant
Danny Granger
Chris Kaman
Blake Griffin
DeAndre Jordan
George Hill
Andray Blatche
Samuel Dalembert
Darren Collison
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

I, like Erik, am on the Chandler Parsons bandwagon right now thanks to those plus defensive stats. As a starter, he’s also going to see about 6-10 more minutes a game than Hill. Hill might get slightly more points and steals, but Parsons has a better all around game.
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