What to Expect from Baron Davis on the Knicks

Categorized as: Author: Patrick, Fantasy Basketball, New York Knicks
Posted on: January 18th, 2012

Last week we predicted Zaza Pachulia’s stats as the Hawks starting center; and even our modest projection of 7.8 points and 7.6 rebounds looks optimistic now that Zaza was pulled from their starting lineup in the Hawks’ last game. He is, however, averaging 8.3 points and 6.3 rebounds through 4 games so far.

Now with Baron Davis cleared to workout this week and possibly back on the court by the end of January, what can fantasy owners expect from him this season? Is he worth picking up now and stashing for the next couple of weeks?

Unlike Pachulia, projecting Davis is a bit tougher since he’s switched teams twice in the past year. So a straight comp/age-related projection is going to miss out on the fact that he now plays for the Knicks, one of the most unique teams in the league for fantasy purposes.

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Just the Facts: Davis is currently 31 years old and has struggled with injuries and conditioning issues pretty much his entire career. Case in point is this back injury that has kept him off the court the first month of the season. So any projection of Davis’ stats should be tempered with the fact that it is all going to depend on his ability to stay healthy this year. Still, at his best Davis can still be one of the better assist men in the league, although his low efficiency shooting has always given fantasy owners headaches.

To start, here is what Davis averaged last season splitting time between the Clippers and the Cavs:

Min: 28.4
Pts: 13.1
Reb: 2.7
Ast: 6.7
Stl: 1.3
Blk: 0.5
3pt: 1.4
To: 2.5
Fg%: 41.7%
Ft%: 77.1%

Note that Davis only averaged 28 minutes a game last season and was really buried once he got to the Cavs. Since the Knicks are desperate for a real point guard – their temporary options at the position have been Toney Douglas, Iman Shumpert and Mike Bibby – it’s safe to assume that Davis will see an increase of minutes on the Knicks. The question is how much? Both Amar’e Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler are averaging 33 minutes a game this season, so we will conservatively projected his minutes at 33, although it wouldn’t be surprising if he saw closer to the 35 that Melo has this year.

There is also the issue of the Knicks’ unique play style under Mike D’Antoni. They are currently one of the faster teams in the league at an estimated 96.1 possessions per game according to John Hollinger’s team statistics. Last season they were the second fastest team in the league at 98.1 possessions. Both teams Davis played for last season were middle of the road pace teams at 95.5. So, assuming the Knicks pick up the pace again when they have a capable PG in Davis (which I think is a reasonable assumption), it’ll be a 3% jump in possessions over what Davis saw last season.

Above pace factor, there is also the question of how, if at all, the Knicks play differently than other teams. Our best experience with that in relation to Davis is probably Raymond Felton, who spent most of last season running the point for the Knicks. In fact, Davis’ age-27 season does fall into the top 5% of Raymond Felton’s player comps. Not a perfect match, but pretty good.

Comparing Felton’s per-36 minute stats on the Knicks with that of his pre- and post-Knicks seasons and we find that most of his stats jumped between 10-30% during his tenure on the Knicks. This includes his points (29% jump), assists (21%), steals (13%) and turnovers (19%) on a per-36 minute basis. There are two exceptions: First, his rebounding actually declined by about 10%. Second, by far the biggest jump he saw was in three pointers attempted and made, both of which increased by about 60% during his time on the Knicks.

That phenomenon is not just isolated to Felton. Melo has seen his three point attempts increase by 80% since joining the Knicks and even Chris Duhon attempted 40% more threes while in New York. So, despite being a mediocre 32% career three point shooter, it’s a good bet that Davis will take more threes this season than he has in the recent past.

Despite not being as good comparisons to Davis as Felton, both Carmelo and Duhon saw similar increases in their scoring, assist and turnover numbers on the Knicks than they did either before or after (in Duhon’s case).

So if we conservatively project Davis at 33 minutes a game using player comps and his past performance and assume that he sees a Knick related bump of 40% in his three point shooting, 0% in his rebounding, and 15% in the rest of his stats (and adjusting his FG% downward to account for the condensed season), this is what we expect from Davis’ on the Knicks on a per game basis assuming he’s healthy:

pts: 17.5
reb: 2.8
ast: 9.1
stl: 1.6
blk: 0.6
3pt: 1.9
to: 3.4
fg%: 41.7%
ft%: 78.1%

It’s certainly a bold prediction. The 9.1 assists would be a career high for Davis and he hasn’t averaged more than 15 points a game since his days with the Warriors. But if anyone can rejuvenate Davis it is D’Antoni, provided Davis can actually stay healthy.

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Tags: Baron Davis, New York Knicks, Raymond Felton

Jeremy

what do you think of me offering scola for turkoglu straight up? kind of overloaded at pf, could use some more sf help now the RJ is beginning to suck again
http://twitter.com/SCarrucciu Spencer Carrucciu

That is certainly a bold prediction. I hope your right as I own him in one of my leagues, we have an IR spot so I actually drafted him in the last round. Looking at those numbers it would put Baron very close to what Deron’s average is for the season.
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

Yeah, if you can sacrifice some boards and are looking for a few more assists and threes, then the trade will work out for you. I haven’t looked at any advanced metrics to see why Scola’s rebounding is way down this season – but you’d have to expect it’s going to bounce back at least a little. And while Hedo’s FG% will likely drop as the season rolls on, I think at worse those two end up around the same spot in terms of overall value. And best case, Scola doesn’t bounce back and you end up way ahead.
Jim

What about Shumpert? He must lose 10 mins a game with that projection. Do you expect him to even be rosterable in a 12×14 league once BD returns?
JK

Very bold! How many FGAs and FTAs would you estimate from Baron
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

Shumpert is a tougher case to predict because you almost have to get in D’Antoni’s head to try to predict how his rotation is going to fall out post-BDiddy. Given the Knicks’ failings at PG and recent struggles, it’s clear that Davis is going to be handed the starting job on a silver platter. Things aren’t so clear with Shumpert. The team has already given him some time at SG in preparation of a move, but the question is how will he split time at the position with Landry Fields? Davis return is definitely going to cut into his minutes either a little (if he gets the starting SG spot) or more than a little (if he comes off the bench behind Fields and Davis), but I’d be speculating if I said I knew the degree to which that will happen.But even best case scenario (short of Davis getting hurt again) means Shumpert loses some value.
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

I seem to have misplaced my flash drive with all the projections on it, but if I remember correctly, the number of shot attempts would have probably been some between his Warriors’ days and his recent history – so like 15 shots a game and 4 trips to the line.
Zee

stashed him in both my h2h leagues… GMTR dont fail me now!
Davo

Have just been offered LeBron, Felton and Davis for Rose, Bosh and Anderson.
What do you think?
http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

If you’re trying to win Assists, Steals and Threes, then that’s a pretty big win for you (assuming I read correctly and you’re getting LeBron, Felton, and Baron).

In terms of overall value, that’s a terrible trade, since Felton is not highly rated and Baron hasn’t even played yet. That said, if we expect Baron to put numbers like Patricks projected, and Anderson to slow down on his ridiculous pace, then it’s much less of a terrible trade. Like I said, you’ll get huge gains in Assists, Steals, and Threes, might stay about even in FT% and take just little hit in Points, Blocks, and FT%. You’ll end up with a lot more turnovers and less rebounds.

Okay, after looking at it, I’ve talked myself into almost making that trade. Anytime you can get LeBron, I say it’s pretty much a given. Especially if someone wants Rose and his potentially season-long injury… Even as a Chicago homer, I would probably take that trade. LeBron is just too good.

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What to Expect from Baron Davis on the Knicks

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