Give Me The Rock

this is fantasy basketball 

Day 26 of 124: Durant + Westbrook 4Evar!!!!1

Author Icon for Nels

Categorized as: Author: Nels, Fantasy Basketball, Miami Heat
Posted on: January 20th, 2012

Line of the Night: LeBron James (2.98) led the Heat past Kobe Bryant and the Lakers with 31 points, 8 rebounds, 8 assists, 4 steals, and 3 blocks. Talk about multi-category contribution. That is why LeBron sits alone atop the Player Rater. And why is the only player to have won LotN more than once so far in only 26 short days (he’s had the best line 3 times). And while he’s there and Kevin Durant is not a slightly more distant second and Russell Westbrook is a disappointing 40th… Westbrook has signed a 5-year, $80 million contract extension to form something like the anti-Heat… two superstars in a town with about 25% of the metro population of Miami, no beaches, and tornadoes.


KD in his tornado shelter

Honorable Mentions: Kevin Martin (2.22) only made 3-3 free throws, but he ended up with 32 points because of 5 threes, and also grabbed 8 rebounds. On a night when there were only 3 games (still more than the “usual” two that are played on Thursday nights), that was enough to put him in second place.

If Kobe Bryant (2.15) had scored another 40 points, the Lakers would have won by 5, but he only managed 24 (3 threes, 5-5 from the line), with 5 rebounds, 7 assists, and 3 steals. Pretty good night for fantasy owners even if the Lakers lost. And speaking of Lakers, Pau Gasol (1.75) had 26 points, and 8 rebounds in the effort, while Andrew Bynum (1.11) contributed 15 points, 12 rebounds, and 2 blocks.

Here’s to Samuel Dalembert (1.27) who finds himself owned in 78% of leagues now that he’s starting for Rockets. Good that people realize that you can’t just get 15 points, 17 rebounds, and 2 blocks from some white guy you picked up off waivers just because he also happens to be starting for the Rockets.

Finally, Al Jefferson (1.14) put together another squarely solid game with 22 points, 9 rebounds, and 2 steals.

***

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: There’s quite a few Jasons in the NBA, but this is actually the first time we’ve ever tagged Jason Smith (1.32) in a post at GMTR. He had his third (non-consecutive) good fantasy game for the Hornets with 17 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 blocks (4% owned). He’s not starting at PF ahead of Carl Landry and whoever else they tried to start at PF before Smith. If it’s good enough for Chandler Parsons, it should be good enough for Smith.

Pick Up Lines: Rodrigue Beaubois (1.28) was a very efficient 6-9 from the field to end with 17 points and 2 blocks (7% owned). I wouldn’t count on that from him, since he did it in only 18 minutes, and it was his best game in a week.

In his second game back from a calf-strain, Courtney Lee (1.23) put up 17 points with 2 threes and 3 steals (4% owned). The Rockets are pretty thin, so Lee should probably be picked up in deep leagues right away and definitely flagged for review in 12 and 14 team leagues. He’s already averaging 9 points with a three and a steal, so if you need that and can afford to skip a big contribution in rebounds and assists, consider courting Courtney. (Yes!)

C.J. Miles (1.20) appears in this space again with 17 points (6-6 from the line), and 2 steals (43% owned). I’m too lazy to look up his ownership rate last time, but I’m pretty sure it’s higher now.

Shane Battier (0.94) started his first game for the Heat, and played his best game for them with 11 points (3 threes), and 6 rebounds (18% owned). Hold on a moment, though, because let’s remember that Dwyane Wade is injured and Battier was starting at SG. He might have a short run, but as soon as Wade returns, Battier is back to non-contributor… probably the 3rd or 4th (or 5th) guy off the bench.

I wish I had more to report, but with only 3 games yesterday, there’s just those two 4-star rec’s up there (Jason Smith and C.J. Miles, in case you missed it). That does give me time to go back and try to pick up any unanswered comments, though. Sorry if we don’t get back to you – with just the 3 of us, it’s hard to keep up with 20-some odd questions a day… They’re all good questions though, so keep it up!

Biggest Loser: All right folks, it might be time to give up on Devin Harris (-0.75). After 1 points on 0-7 from the field with 2 rebounds, and 2 assists… I think anyone still waiting to see if he’ll come back has waited long enough. There are a lot of free agent options out there this season and you’re missing out on them if you’re still hoping Harris makes something of the season.

Meanwhile, someone you should hang on to, despite his terrible 10 points 1 rebounds 1 assists 3-14 from the field is Jason Terry (-0.56). Some of his numbers are down, but that includes his turnovers while his steals and threes are actually up. Then there’s Jason Kidd (-0.15) who crafted a line like only Kidd can… 2 points on 1-4 with 5 rebounds, 11 assists, and 6 turnovers. If you have Kidd, your team is probably constructed such that you don’t care about the FG% or the Turnovers, so that’s a pretty nice line in spite of what the player rater says.

***

Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.

Do not miss a day of the Fantasy NBA. Subscribe to Give Me The Rock RSS Feed right now. You can also get bonus (and easily digestible) content by following GMTR on Twitter, or become a fan of GMTR on Facebook! We are so social!

Other Stuff Like This:

Tags: , , ,

  • Davo

    How much do you give up for that LOTN (& the likelihood of it being semi-regular)?

    My line up is currently
    Rose
    Harden
    Dorell
    Nowitzki
    Cousins
    Holiday
    Bosh
    Anderson
    Noah
    DeAndre
    Mullens
    Prince
    Ariza

    Trade been offered by LeBrons woner is LB, Felton, Baron Davis for Anderson, Bosh & Rose.
    Am I killing myself to get LB or can I cover these losses in a 10tm H2H 8Cat (no TO) daily chgs league?
    Lebron suddenly shooting 3′s is a massive win. Ive got some guys there that are “warming their way into the season still” (love positive thinking), & if they get going a bit, I feel I can cover this deal. Plus your projections on Davis look pretty tasty. Even 80% of that would be OK.

    Plus, due to the schedule I get 2 extra LB games instead of Rose games & that could just be enough to sneak an extra point in weekly comps.

    PLease tell me if the stats back up my gut feel that I should just jump at this because LB is a BEAST!

    (apologies for double questioning – see B Davis thread).

  • Bballer

    What do you think about Ray Allen for the rest of the season? Is it a good buy low opportunity after his last few games?
    Thanks

  • Anthony

    Kidd.
    D. Williams.
    T. Lawson.
    A. Afflalo.
    G. Henderson.
    R. Gay.
    G. Wallace.
    Nene.
    Al Jefferson.
    Emeka.
    Varajeao.
    R. Stuckey.
    D. West
    P. George.

    Need some help getting this team going. Any suggestions? And when will Kidd find his shot?

  • Mike

    Should I drop Dudley for Morris?

  • Davo

    I got sick of Dudley & dropped him for Prince. While Dudley is starting on the bench & stinking it up, I’d try anyone else who will give more than the 1Reb, 1 Asst from the other night.
    Im not upset at him……………….

  • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

    If you assume that Ryan Anderson keeps up his all-star act all season and use a more modest 15 points/7.5 assist average for Baron Davis than I did in my B-Diddy post, it is tough to justify the trade unless you really, really need assists.

    You’ll gain something crazy like 11 assists a game out of this trade and 1.5 to 2 steals, but it’s going to cost you about 4 points, 5 boards, 3 turnovers, 2-3 threes (depending on how many James starts hitting) and one massive hit to your FT%. That’s a good amount to give up unless you happen to really be in need of assists. 

    IF B-Diddy goes crazy on the Knicks and Anderson comes back down to earth, the trade is more justifiable as the point difference could even out and the three difference would drop to more like 1 or something. In which case, you’ll be giving up some boards, FT% and taking on turnovers for one huge bump to assists and some steals. Plus, you’d get to own James.

    Overall, It’s probably an even value trade with some risk on your side (although Rose is hurt at the moment and Anderson should regress a bit, so there is that too). This is probably just one to go with your gut on. 

  • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

    Yes, you should drop Dudley based on the way he’s been playing and the fact that he lost his starting job. I think Morris is a fine add at the moment to see what he can do as a starter, but don’t be afraid to cut him quickly if he just ends up splitting to much time with Channing Frye.

  • Anonymous

    Hey Patrick, good call on Dalembert over Hawes…picked up the Haitian Sensation in exchange from Hawes yesterday.  Well done, sir!

  • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

    Here is Ray Allen’s own words on why he’s had a rough last few games

    http://articles.boston.com/2012-01-19/sports/30640205_1_rondo-celtics-ray-allen 

    He’s blaming it on a lack of transition offense and C’s rebounding – the two things that most allow him open looks at the three. 

    I personally see a guy who started off the season on fire and is simply regressing to the mean a little. He is 36 years old, but the guy is in great shape and I think he’ll do exactly what we projected from him this season. Buy on him if you can. 

  • Davo

    Cheers Patrick. I currently STINK in assists, have huge FT% & think its possible to sneak some of those small losses from working the wire.
    So, Im gonna go with the gut & take the trade.
    60% of it is because I cant wait to roll into the office on Monday morning & see everyones reaction to me getting LBJ.

    Thanks & keep up the awesome advice & analysis.

  • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

    Thanks. As long as it doesn’t involve who to start on any given night, my powers of forecasting are usually fairly decent.

  • Helpmepls

    Hope you guys remember me just, made a traded d.rose and dorell for al jeff and wesley matthews. Would do you guys think? Thanks and kudos!

  • Anonymous

    Boy, I hear that…you and me both.

  • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

    Well, I replied to your comment on the Baron Davis thread, and looking at your lineup and your league, I’m more convinced that you should do it.  In a 10-team league you can just drop Felton and pick up someone a lot better (which it looks you’re capable of doing from looking at your lineup). I think Patrick and I started off in the same place thinking it was a bad trade, but both kind of came around the more we really looked at (me more than him, obviously).

    LeBron is up to 1.38 WARP and KD is a fairly distant second at 1.22… That’s pretty big drop considering that Lowry and Paul are right behind at 1.21.

  • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

    Jason Smith?

  • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

    Ouch… Plenty of underachievers on that team… At least D-Will and Gay are starting to pick up again. I would dump Kidd. He has never had a shot to find. He’s a career 40% shooter and his career high is like 44%. At least he doesn’t take many shots. You’ve got that.

    I’d say with the guys you have, try to trade Kidd for a more Big Ball PG. You’ve got Stuckey who can give decent Rebounds from the PG position, but he’s playing below potential as well. Maybe try to trade Afflalo as well for a SG with more of Big Ball stats (mostly FG% and Rebounds are what to look for in a Big Ball SG) – Gerald Henderson is a good example to follow, pretty decent Big Ball stats for a SG.

  • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

    Interesting… assuming standard league settings, that is actually a positive trade for you. Not what I would have thought without looking at the numbers…

    The losses in Assists (big loss), threes, and FT% are compensated for by equal gains in everything else.

    It’s risky, though because Wright is rated very low right now, but he looks like he’s starting to pick it up again… That said, the risk there might be offset by Rose’s injury, which seems like it has the potential to cause either a long span of consecutive missed games (especially with the short schedule) or a bunch of random missed games through the season (which is even worse than the consecutive misses). That said, there’s the risk that Matthews drops a bit to be more in line with our projections, but he’s not that far off, so it won’t be a big fall…

    Overall, I say, Good Trade.

  • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

    How many teams in your league? And is it daily changes?

    A quick scan of your team and I’ve got you are likely being strong in points, assists and boards with weaknesses in TOs, threes and percentages. You have a unique team with a lot of good rebounding guards/small forwards, but not a lot of shot blockers, so despite being fairly big, I don’t have you being that great in blocks. Similarly, your FG% is less than I’d expect from a big team thanks to the brothers of rim destruction this season, Kidd and Williams. 

    I think at this point Kidd is more likely just to stop shooting entirely than find his shot. Ok, I’m only half kidding about that. Unless he’s hurting more than we realize, the rules of probability demand that he improve his shooting at least a little bit over the course of the season – that 3pt percentage is bound to creep over 30%. When that is going to happen, I have no idea.

    Along the lines of what Nels said, with your team it probably makes sense to try and improve your blocks and FG% for starters. That means Rodney Stuckey isn’t doing much for you IMO. I’d drop him for a big, maybe speculate on Bismack Biyombo and see if he can continue to put up good numbers. Getting rid of Stickey should also help that FG% a little. A bigger move would be trading for a shot blocking PF/C.

  • Philosurfer3

    I’m in an 8 team h2h yahoo league. With all the talks of Brook Lopez doing well and coming back in 2-4 wks, what do you think about me dropping Hawes, Scola, or David West for him now? Also, which of those 3?

  • Philosurfer3

    Also, Dorell Wright was just dropped and so was Blatche? Do you think I should pick either of them up and drop any of the 3 I mentioned above? I guess I could theoretically switch out all 3 players for Wright, Blatche and Lopez….

  • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

    I’d go with Scola. He’s way underperforming right now and even if he returns to form, he probably won’t be much better than Lopez (if he’s better at all).

  • Basim

    I was a bit surprised not to read about Mo Williams being mentioned in your blog for today. He just got back from a 3-game absence because of a foot injury and had a pretty big night 26 PTS (with 73.3 FG% & 100 FT%), 4 asts, 2 stls. Biggest game for him this season. He’s definitely not super consistent, but I felt that his stat line was worthy of mention.

  • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

    He was mentioned here: http://givemetherock.com/2012/01/19/day-25-of-124/ under Pickup Lines

  • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

    I’d take Blatche over Scola right now, especially in an 8-team league. Hawes, Wright, and West are all in the Top 100 (qualified for an 8 team league). Blatche and Scola aren’t in the Top 100 though we projected them both there, with Blatche around 64 and Scola at 82.

  • Philosurfer3

    So you are saying Blatche for Scola right now? and then wait to get lopez later?

  • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

    Yeah, seems a little early to pick up Lopez just yet… Maybe once February comes around…

  • Basim

    Awesome! I must have missed that. Thanks Nels, continue the great work :D

  • Anonymous

    What do you guys think about my Kevin Martin / Emeka Okafor for Danny Granger / Brook Lopez?  Fair offer or an insult to the guy?  It’s a 14 team league, standard cats and the Lopez owner is sitting on a good amount of injured players.  I could also offer Varejao instead of Okafor.

  • Davo

    Thanks guys.
    Now let’s get these underperformers (Noah, Dirk, Jrue, and Dorell) to perform at projections from now on and I’m a happy manager.

  • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

    It’s a trade that’s certainly tipped in your favor, but I don’t think it’s an insult, especially since you’d have to sit on Lopez for a few more weeks. I’ve found that people are often reluctant to trade injured players, but if he’s sitting on a few on them, it’s worth a shot. 

    If Lopez performs up to expectations, I’ve got you gaining about 8-10 points per game, a block and a steal for the cost of about 1 rebound, 1 TO and 0.5 threes. And that’s if Granger doesn’t improve from what he’s done this year. The guy might not want to sell low on Granger either, but if he says no you can always revise the offer and swap in Varejao.

  • Jeremy

    I picked up Kawhi Leonard a little while ago thinking this was going to be a great pickup for the forseeable future with Manu out. Now after averaging over 30 minutes over a six game stretch (and putting up pretty solid numbers) Pop has decided to limit Kawhi’s minutes to 24 and 20 in the last two (putting up abysmal numbers). Time to part ways?

  • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

    Spurs fans can correct me if I’m wrong about this, but it looks like Popovich used Leonard and Danny Green to guard Jameer Nelson and Tyreke Evans over the Spurs last two games, giving Tony Parker the easier defensive assignment and allowing him to focus more on offense. At this point, Green is a more consistent defender than Leonard, so he’s been seeing an increase of minutes at Leonard’s expense (Leonard was particularly burned by Evans in the game he only got 21 minutes of run).

    I’d give Leonard at least one more game to see how the minutes are split between him and Green, but if the trend continues, then yeah he’s droppable.