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  • Day 31 of 124: Bargnani is Back

    Author Icon for Nels

    Categorized as: Author: Nels, Fantasy Basketball, Toronto Raptors
    Posted on: January 25th, 2012

    or: Timing is Everything and My Timing Sucks
    or: Attack of the Big Men

    Line of the Night: Andrea Bargnani (3.17) played 42 minutes in his first game back and proved why he is one of the greatest Small Ball Centers ever to have played the game of fantasy basketball (because you know that’s what the players are all really thinking about when they’re out there). Bargnani had 36 points on 4 threes, and 12-12 from the line, to go with 6 rebounds, 2 steals, and 1 block. The subtitle of the post refers to the fact that I left Derrick Rose and Andrea Bargnani on my bench this week in favor of Nate Robinson and Channing Frye. Do remember that Nels is the Conservative One (at least when it comes to fantasy basketball). I’m tying to be more aggressive this year with swapping free agents, but when it came to starting guys, I had to go with the sure thing over guys who hadn’t played in a week (I had Rose in my lineup all last week). Of course, the most painful part is that I left Luol Deng and MarShon Brooks in my lineup because I didn’t think their injuries were going to be that bad. Hopefully I’m right on one of those.

    Honorable Mentions: I’m not sure why Chris Bosh (2.55) was so far behind Bargnani in WARP because their lines are very similar except for the threes and steals. Bosh had 35 points (10-16 from the field, 14-14 from the line), 7 rebounds, and 1 block. Ryan Anderson (2.23) bounced back from one of the worst games of any player ever to give his owners 24 points, 5 threes, and 8 rebounds. Classic Ryan Anderson. (Yes, I intended that to be ironic) Next up are a bunch of your more traditional big men: Tyson Chandler (1.88) had 20 points (9-10 from the field), and 17 rebounds; Marcin Gortat (1.41) is setting leagues that count double-doubles on fire with another 21 points, 12 rebounds, and 2 blocks; and Amare Stoudemire (1.41) had his best game in a while with 18 points (7-12 from the floor, 4-4 from the line), and 8 rebounds.

    ***

    Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Landry Fields (2.14) has been playing 36 minutes per game in the last 4 for the Knicks. Only 29 last night, but he scored 18 points to go with 5 assists, 2 steals, and 2 blocks (39% owned). Classic Landry Fields. Of course, Baron Davis is expected to start playing this week, so I’m going to have have to where B-Diddy’s minutes come from before I can recommend picking Fields back up (at least in the 61% of leagues where he was dropped). Fields has been playing well, but so has Iman Shumpert (Shumpert is 65 on the Player Rater over the last 4 games versus Fields at 71). It does give New York the chance to ease Baron into the rotation, but it makes it hard for fantasy owners to know who to hang onto…

    Pick Up Lines: Marcus Camby (1.82) returned to form (and more) with 3 points, 22 rebounds, 2 steals, and 5 blocks (40% owned). I’m not sure how he turned the ball over 4 times, considering he only took 2 shots, but he played almost 32 minutes, which is his most in a while. Since he’s probably already owned in all the snatch-n-grab leagues, you can probably give him one more game before making a decision.

    Leandro Barbosa (1.34) is definitely the best guy on the Raptors bench, and last night he was their second best player (9th overall on the night) with 19 points (7-14 from the field, 3 threes) with a steal and a block (26% owned).

    The Magic were smart and actually rested their starters in a blowout win (Tom Thibodeau, are you paying attention?) so Chris Duhon (1.17) go some extra run and ended up with 8 points, 4 assists, and 3 steals (1% owned).

    Derrick Brown (1.05) started at PF for the Bobcats and played 33 minutes against the Knicks. Brown had 15 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 steals (1% owned). I’ve picked him up in a 14-team league (dropped Courtney Lee), so hopefully that gives you some sort of guide about how I feel about Brown. With the fading Boris Diaw and the still up-and-coming Bismack Biyombo behind him, Brown seems like he could be in for some significant minutes if he can play well consistently.

    James Johnson (0.99) is another nominee for an award I just made up called The Streaker. The statue will feature a nude man running. No one wants to win that award, but Johnson certainly appears to be trying with his 18 points (4-4 from the line), 10 rebounds, and maddening inconsistency. Two games ago, he had 23 points (10-17 FG shooting) with 6 rebounds and 2 steals, but then followed that up with 7 points on 3-8 with 2 rebounds. There is a reason he is only 20% owned. That reason is Inconsistency.

    Go ahead and post your NBA Betting Predictions in the comments with other nominations for this prestigious award.

    Here’s a name you haven’t heard in a while: Quentin Richardson (0.76) (8 points, 2 steals, 1% owned). That’s all.

    Biggest Loser: Raymond Felton (-0.94) managed 10 points and no one expects big rebounds or good shooting from him (0 rebounds, 2-6 from the field), but 2 assists and 6 turnovers in combination with no rebounds and bad shooting is just not going to get it done.

    If you hadn’t already figured this one out, it’s officially time to give up on Amir Johnson (-0.73) who only had 5 points and 3 rebounds, as well as Boris Diaw (-0.57), who turned in another 4 points, 6 rebounds, 1 assist and 1-6 from the field. How you like Diaw niow? (Edit: Just got a tweet that someone’s not giving up on Amir yet in their deep league. So, if we’re talking 18+ teams, then fine, you can hang on see if he comes back from his current #291 rank in the last 7 days. If we got to 16 teams (x13 players) that gets iffy… Anything less than that, and it’s time to cut him loose. Coincidentally, Diaw is #292 in the last 7 days.)

    Finally, a tough night for the (to this point) surging Marc Gasol (-0.51). Gasol only came up with 7 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists while going 2-7 from the field.

    ***

    Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.

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    • http://twitter.com/conradburry Conrad Burry

      Pts league (all stats = 1pt, asts = 2pts, TOs = -1pt): Drop Mullens &/or C. Landry to pick up Fields, Camby, JorCraw, Splitter, JamJohnson, or Barbosa? Cheers!

    • Addicted

      No mention of Carmello? O-7 and 1pt! But 11reb and 4asts.

    • Pvpdoorman02

      Keep it up R. Anderson, M. Gortat and T. Chandler! They’re all my centers. :)  I proposed a trade for K. Mart + S. Ibaka for my D. Granger + T. Duncan, is this a steal? I need 3′s, steals and blocks!

    • Pvpdoorman02

      Keep it up R. Anderson, M. Gortat and T. Chandler! They’re all my centers. :)  I proposed a trade for K. Mart + S. Ibaka for my D. Granger + T. Duncan, is this a steal? I need 3′s, steals and blocks!

    • http://twitter.com/conradburry Conrad Burry

      ugh. that was a tough one. i just traded for Melo last week, and last night was his first game for me…brutal. not to mention, I traded JJack and Humph for Melo, and JJack dominated on Monday, and will continue to do so with EG10 indefinitely out.

    • Joe

      I have very little forward eligibility. Im looking to trade Shumpert, westbrook, martin, thorton, jennings,or miller, for a forward/center type guy. As you see I have a few guards and just trying to get the best value for any of them. the guys in this league trade based on yahoo rankings so sometimes its tough to trade but other times can get great value. If anyone has any ideas on who I can target with one of these guards please let me know, i really appreciate your help. Thanks

    • slick

      Whats up fellas h2h 9cat daily changes..who’s the better play tonight..knight vs mia,shump vs clev or blatche vs cha

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

      I wouldn’t stay that’s a steal, but it’s a positive trade for you. Duncan is definitely underpeforming this year, and that will probably continue since I think the Spurs will limit his minutes as they have been so far. Hard to say if Ibaka keeps blocking 2.6 shots per game, but it doesn’t seem like he wants to do anything else… The trade actually hurts you in steals though, but helps in 3s and blocks… so 2/3…

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

      I’d go Blatche, Knight, Shump in that order. Blatche against CHA should be a cakewalk, but who knows with that guy. Knight against MIA will probably be tougher defense, but seems like he’ll probably get more minutes than Shumpert will against the weaker D.

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

      I guess the 11 rebounds and 4 assists pleased the Player Rater enough to put him at 67 / 115 last night.

    • Jeremy

      at this point would you start Wes or Leandro for tonight’s games? It’s hard to think that with wes’s minutes he’s going to continue pooping the bed like this, and although Leandro has a good a good last couple of games he is a member of the Toronto Raptors who isn’t named Bargnani 

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

      I’d keep Landry, drop Mullens.

      I’d go in this order for pickups (Fields and Crawford are the lowest ranked on normal category stats, but they get more assists than the other guys):
      Splitter
      James Johnson
      Fields

      Crawford

      Barbosa
      Camby

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

      Is this H2H or Roto? Can you give us your whole team? It’s kind of a broad question, so having a bit more information would help…

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

      Matthews is playing the easier defense with GSW tonight… but it’s not the golden ticket it used to be. I’d stick with Leandro for now until Wes makes some shots.

    • Jeremy

      could also sub out scola, whose inability to contribute in any category other than points (and minimal rebounds) is also not very helpful

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

      I’d probably keep Scola in since at least he shoots decently from the field and he’s playing the Bucks who are evidently going to start Luc Mbah Moute against Scola, so he might be able to get some rebounds.

    • Joe

      Dirk, Westbrook, Lawson, Jennings, Andre Miller, Kaman, Morrow, Parsons, Nick Batum, Marcus Thorton, Iman Shumpert, Kevin Martin, Javale Mcgee, Hansbrough, Biyombo. 10 teams H2H with FG% FT% 3PTM Points Reb Assists Steals Blocks TO. I had Horford but lost him because of his injury.

    • Jeremy

      i agree and I’m going to keep scols in there, but I have to disagree about the boards. set the over-under at 6 and im taking under

    • Also Addicted

      Hey – big fan here.Just recently made the swap of Kevin Love + Mike Conley + Thornton so that I would get Aldridge + Granger + Lawson. Did I make a good move there? Also – I could probably swap Aldridge for either Ellis or Lowry, or try to get both by adding another guy like david lee (also on my team). Should I pursue either of those? My team is now as follows (12 team H2H league):

      Brandon Jennings
      Barbosa 
      Dorell Wright
      Aldridge
      Lawson
      Granger
      Hawes
      Dirk
      David Lee
      Mullens
      Carl Landry
      CJ Miles
      Tony Allen

      With that in mind, did I make a good move in my original trade? And should I try and swap Aldridge for Ellis or something like that? THANKS!

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Scola has had one 6+ board game out of his last five. Insane. Even Andrea Bargnani is shaking his head. 

    • http://twitter.com/conradburry Conrad Burry

      aye, aye. I’ll see how those top 3 guys play tonight and make a decision from there…any reason u dont like Mullens? seems like he’s guaranteed min’s more than Splitter is.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Hey Joe – are you having a bit of trouble in this league since the Horford injury? With a healthy Dirk, I’ve got you as a decent steals, threes and FG% team (thanks to all the guards), but sort of averagish in everything else. 

      If your having a bit of trouble, you may want to embrace the smallness of your team and actually try and improve your position in points and assists while not worrying too much about rebounds. In which case, you can target scoring type forwards like Paul Pierce, Hedo Turkoglu, try and buy low on Danny Granger or Dorell Wright, or even target the namesake of today’s post, Andrea Bargnani. Trevor Ariza makes an ok waiver wire pickup for you if he’s available. 

      In terms of who to trade, all your guards more or else fit your team style (which make sense since your running small), so I’d target a guy you like and then find the best guy on your team to trade based on what you think you could get for him. 

    • Joe

      Thanks a lot for your help. I really appreciate it.

    • Also Addicted

      hate to nag, but would you mind taking a look at my post? thanks!!

    • Gerald

      Would you give up Henderson to take a risk on Eric Gordon?

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

      If you’re in a league that gives you the opportunity to stash him then, Yes. Gordon’s injury prone, but there’s no doubt whether he’s capable of producing Top-30 value or not.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Hey Addicted,

      For the purposes of this trade, I’ll assume that Granger bounces fully back to what we projected for him at the start of the season. But even if we do that, the bad news is this trade doesn’t do much for you. It’s not necessarily a bad trade on the face of it – you gain a small amount of points, assists and blocks for the cost of a little bit of boards, steals, and a lot of threes. I’d call it a fairly even trade in overall value if Granger bounces back.

      Unfortunately, I had your team pre-trade as strong on points, steals, tos, threes and FT% and weak in assists and blocks.  By giving up steals and threes, your team moves back to around average in those categories and the gains you get in assists and blocks aren’t large enough to make much of a difference (I still have you as below average). The small decline in boards also moves you from slightly above average to right around average. On the plus side, points should pretty be a lock down category for you now.

      Flipping Aldridge for Ellis or Lowry would obviously improve your position in assists, steals and threes at the cost of boards and blocks. If you do flip Aldridge, your team amazing ends up right around where you started, except you swap your original slightly above average position in boards for a slightly above average position in assists. Lowry would be a better get for you than Ellis. You can afford to give up the points for Lowry’s better rebounding and assists. I’d make that Lowry trade if you can make it happen.

      So it was a long way t o go for that, but at least you are able to turn your weakness in assists into a minor strength without really hurting the rest of your team too much.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      The problem with Mullens is that if his shot isn’t falling, he doesn’t do much else for you (as his recent game logs show).

      In a points based league like yours, you basically want to focus on points, boards and assists since those are the stats guys rack up most often and don’t worry about much else. So as much as I love James Johnson, he doesn’t fit your league’s scoring system. Splitter is hot right now, but I don’t trust him to keep it up. Fields has probably been the best of these guys recently because he’s averaging over 4 assists a game during the past couple of weeks. You may want to ride him until Baron Davis returns. 

      And while Jordan Crawford isn’t great for a regular fantasy league, he should be decent in yours since he’s scoring about 17 points a game recently.

    • http://twitter.com/conradburry Conrad Burry

      thanks for the thoughts, Pat. The couple guys catching my fancy from tonight’s scores / news: Splitter, Gooden (Bogut out?), Fields, and Dev Harris. Who of these to pickup by dropping Mullens?

    • Also Addicted

      Thanks for the advice! I can potentially swap Aldridge + Lee for both Ellis and Lowry. I won last year using a guard heavy approach so I might want to go back to that this year. Would this be a good trade for me as well? I think it would be. I’d be strong in assists and steals as well as points, probably FT%, and 3s as well. Thanks again!

    • Balboran

      Just traded Iguodala for Granger to help out my small ball team. Think it was worth it? Or should I be tilting right about now?

    • helpme!!

      Hey guys need criticism’s for my team this is a 14 team, 9-cat, H2H weekly changes with 10 players. Here is my current lineup: 

      Jason Kidd
      James Harden
      Trever Ariza 
      Shawn Marion
      Josh Smith
      Nicolas Batum
      Channing Frye
      Al Jefferson
      Markieff Morris
      Wesley Matthews 
      Udonis Haslem
      Chuck Hayes
      Jason Smith

      In which direction should I bring my team? What changes could I make to help in my chances of making the playoffs I am currently last in this league and really need help. Thanks!

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Yeah, good trade. You’d only lose more boards and FG%, and the positives from those two guards in assists, steals, threes and FT% both fit with your new team and outweigh those negatives.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Well, it’s going to depend a lot on Danny Granger and if he bounces back to what we expected of him this year. As it stands right now, you pick up a little bit of points, blocks and threes and a big bump in FT% for losses in rebounds, assists, steals and FG%. Sort of an even trade if you can take the 3 assists a game loss going from AI to Granger. 

      However, if Granger bounces back you’ll get a really nice bump in points and the rebounding difference more or less goes away – and you’ll be the pretty clear winner in the trade.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      I’d go with Gooden while Bogut is out. Harris had a nice game, but it came against Jose Ole Calderon, so I would be shocked if Harris kept that type of play up. 

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Tough one man. You have the unfortunate situation of being neither a big nor small team and have a number of underperforming guys like Kidd and Channing Frye. I’ve got you as being great in TOs and maybe some minor strengths in boards and blocks, but everything else is either average of below average.

      Sounds like it’s time to blow it all up and have some fun with things. I think you can go one of two ways with your team. One, build around your two best players in Jefferson and Smith and go big and really focus in on boards, blocks, TOs and FG%. In this case, you are definitely going to want to improve your FG%. So say goodbye to Kidd despite the fact that he fits a big ball team in other ways. Trade him for whatever you can get and maybe see if you can get a guy like Mario Chalmers. You’ll also want to pick up another shot rebounder/shot blocker to strengthen your position in those categories. You don’t have a ton of tradeable value on your team, so you might have to flip a guy like Harden, who doesn’t really match your strengths. You can also try to pick up a shot blocker off waivers like Bismack Biyombo if he’s available. 

      The other option would be to use your two most tradable assets (Jefferson and Smith) to complete revamp your team around percentages, TOs and whatever else you could get (maybe points and threes). This would take more work, but you could use your tradable guys to bring in players like Danilo Gallinari, Chris Bosh, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, or Greg Monroe. In this scenario, Kidd has to go again as well as Trevor Ariza. 

      I wish I had better news for you, but either way it looks like you’ve got some work ahead if you want to be a playoff team. Good luck.

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

      8 rebounds! I win! Pay up!

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