Day 33 of 124: Only Two Games

Categorized as: Author: Nels, Fantasy Basketball, Memphis Grizzlies
Posted on: January 27th, 2012

First time I can recall this season where that’s happened (the two game thing, not the thing down there with Gasol and Griffin, though maybe that too)

The nice thing about only 2 games is that I can actually get this post done before I have to go work so I don’t have to work on it on the crowded El Train. The bad thing about only 2 games is that it’s very common for one team to dominate the charts and the Pick Up Lines are pretty thin. I mean, only 41 guys played last night in the NBA, and Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo were not two of them… Slim pickins [sic].

Line of the Night: Marc Gasol (2.03) made up for his fairly appalling performance in the Grizzlies last game with 18 points (8-8 from the line), 11 rebounds, 6 assists, and 2 steals. Which Gasol will go in drafts first next year? There’s probably sports betting online going on already for that one.

Honorable Mentions: Kevin Garnett (1.77) provided some support for the Celtics with 12 points, 10 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals, and 4 blocks. Yahoo’s NBA home page claims it was all Paul Pierce (0.90) and his 44 minutes, 24 points, 6 rebounds, and 10 assists, but Garnett actually had the higher +/- score, indicating he was a big part of the Celtics come back. Funny how three days before the C’s destroy the Magic and then they almost get blown out themselves… Is Boston tougher than we think? Am I talking too much about normal basketball instead of fantasy basketball?

With Chris Paul back, Mo Williams (1.75) only managed 18 points (with 4 steals), while Chris Paul (1.68) also had 18 points (10-11 from the line), with 7 rebounds, 7 assists, and 2 steals. So, who’s the big loser with Paul back? Anyone who’s read GMTR for more than a day should be able to figure that one out (even if you don’t actually know who, you should be able to figure out where to look based on the words I used in the question. The answer is in the question).

Caron Butler (1.14) also had a nice game for the Clippers with 17 points (3 threes), and 2 steals. Since there were only two games, it makes sense that the next guy is also a Clipper: Blake Griffin (0.92) had 20 points (only 4-8 from the line), with 9 rebounds, 8 assists, 2 blocks, and 3 turnovers. I mention the turnovers because that’s Paul, Butler, and Williams combined for only 3 turnovers, so that plus the FT shooting was was kept Blake’s otherwise monster line from scoring higher.

The other Grizz played hard, but to no avail… Mike Conley (0.59) had 4 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assists, and 4 steals (the 4 steals, obviously the key there), while Rudy Gay (0.55) scored 24 points (3 threes), and grabbed 7 rebounds

***

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: E’Twaun Moore (1.65) (I’m just going to play it off like I’ve heard of him, since he is from East Chicago) got 17 minutes of run for Boston with Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo out with injuries. When you’re starting Mickael Pietrus and Avery Bradley (which the Celtics did), there’s bound to be a rookie breakout game. Moore did that with 16 points on 4 threes, 3 rebounds, and a block (0% owned). I wouldn’t count on him making 4 threes on 5-6 shots every 17 minutes (especially since he only had 6 points in a career-high 19 minutes the game before), but he’s worth keeping an eye on while Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo are out. I suppose if you’re in a 20+ team league, he’s worth an add until those two get back.

Pick Up Lines: Speaking of guys getting time with Allen and Rondo out: Mickael Pietrus (0.64) had 12 points on 3 threes (out of 8 he took) with 4 rebounds and 2 assists (4% owned). He had 14 points in his previous 30+ minute game, but then he missed a game right after that, so I’m not going to recommend him except, again, in those 20+ team leagues.

Randy Foye (0.32) is actually ranked #68 over the past week. Last night he only managed 7 points on 2-2 from the field and 2-2 from the line and I was going to mock the Player Rater for ranking him so well because of performances like that, but he started a bunch of games for the Clips there for a second (5% owned). If Chris Paul gets injured again (which, honestly, could definitely happen) or if Billups or Mo Williams miss some time, Foye has shown that he can do some fantasy damage. This is certainly more useful information for owners with daily changes, but if the injuries are significant, he would be a must add.

Biggest Loser: Sorry, Chauncey Billups (-0.50), but Chris Paul is back. With Mo Williams playing crazy good right now, Billups minutes dropped to only 22 in Paul’s second game back, allowing Billups to only get to 9 points, 2 rebounds, and 3 assists with 4 turnovers.

The funny thing about having only 2 games is that Dwight Howard (0.12) ended up with 16 points (50% from both the field and the line 16 rebounds 0 assists

***

Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.

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Tags: Chauncey Billups, E'Twaun Moore, Marc Gasol

http://twitter.com/conradburry Conrad Burry

Pts league (all stats = 1pt / FG and FT misses = -1pt), SIT which TWO for tonight: Kemba, Javale, Camby, Ridnour, and Gooden?
http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

I’d say Kemba and Javale unless Ridnour is going to miss another game…. who knows about that though? I don’t see anything…
Orchix

Hi,
10 team, H2H, 9 cat, no tos, I just got offered two trades for my Melo, I’m unlikely to accept either one of them, but I’d like to know what you guys think of them.

1. Melo for Hedo and Gay
2. Melo for Granger and Gordon

Thanks!
http://twitter.com/conradburry Conrad Burry

Yeah, hopefully we see some news on Ridnour at some point before the game tonight…Kemba jacking shots doesnt help me too much in that league’s scoring.
http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

Granger and Gordon is the better trade if you were going to choose, but I’d say you probably don’t want either. (I’m assuming Eric Gordon) Since Gordon will be out for another 3-6 weeks, you’re trading Melo straight up for Granger for 3-6 weeks and hoping that Gordon comes back after that. Clearly people are trying to buy low on Carmelo because he’s only shooting 40%, but Granger is only at 37%, so you lose on most categories in that trade.

Also, you’d have to drop someone to get both of the new guys in your lineup, so you’re really trading Melo + whoever was starting in place of the second guy. When you look at it as a 2-for-2 trade like that, I bet the numbers get even worse, especially in a 10 team league.

What’s the 9th category if it’s not turnovers?

Also daily changes? If it’s daily, then trading for Gordon seems completely out of the question.
Orchix

Thanks, for the response, the 9th cat was double doubles. I’m just hoping that Carmelo picks it up soon. What do you guys think of Dejuan Blair, is he worth keeping on the roster or should I see who else I can get off waivers? I also picked up Deng off waivers (someone dropped him because of injury). I heard he is coming back for Sunday, is he worth keeping around to see how he adjusts to injury?
Kim

Hi,
I reallyy need your help…
I am in 10 team, H2H, 11 Category (FGM, FG%, FTM, FT%, Threes, Points, Reb, Ast, Stl, Blk, TO) league (daily changes).
My team is D Wade, Westbrook, Granger, Brook Lopez, Lowry, Gallinari, Elton Brand, Greg Monroe, Marcus Thorton, Jeff Teague, Varejao, Hedo Turkoglu, and Henderson.

My team has tooo many injured players. I have Brook who is out for another month, Wade suffering from various injuries. Others also has been injured for few games this year. Should I trade those injured guys to get healthy players, or should I wait for these players.

Also, what could I do to make my team better?

Thank you!
BradM

Is Kevin Love untouchable in trades? My team is top 3 in stls/assists and bottom half in rebounds and points. I am considering offering Ricky Rubio and Andre Igoudala for Kevin Love. I would still have Derrick Rose, Marcus Thornton, Baron Davis, and Shumpert at guard. The Love owner is bottom 4 in stls/assists but tops in rebounds and points

Is this a good idea for me? Is it worth offering to the Love owner? Thier team is struggling other than Love, severe lack of depth and as a result they’re in 9th place
http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

I would offer that trade, but don’t expect him to accept it. Given the conditions you laid out, he probably needs to do something, but if I had Kevin Love and you had Derrick Rose, I’d probably hold out for a 1-1 swap of those two. With a shallow team, though, Rubio and Iguodala could be tempting enough… If Rubio is better than the other guy’s worst starter, then it’s at least an upgrade in the categories where he’s struggling.
http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

Since it’s already Friday, it’s probably worth hanging on to see. I have him as well and I’m holding him. I don’t expect him to keep putting up the same kind of numbers playing injured, but who knows, it works for Kobe…

At this point I’d take Tiago Splitter over Blair if he’s still available. He seems to be flying a bit under the radar…
Anonymous

Thank you for posting a stock image that wasn’t an actual shot from last night.

My eyes are still burning from the ‘throw-back’ puke-style jerseys that Memphis & the Clips had to rock. Reminded me of some unfortunate P.E. clothes from middle school.
http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

I’ll let Patrick do a better analysis of your team by categories, but I don’t think you’re all that banged up (I’ve got Deng, Bargnani, Rose, MarShon Brooks, and Stephen Curry on one of my teams). I’d see about trading Marcus Thornton, but I’d stick with everyone else. If you can get first or early second round type value for Wade, then maybe see if you can send somewhere else.
http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

Is the Memphis throwback a Vancouver Grizzlies jersey? That would be a bit humiliating.Though, then I could rock my sweet Shareef Abdur-Rahim jersey.
BradM

I think I would accept Rose for Love if he counters with that.

Thanks
Anonymous

IIRC they are ABA throwback jerseys for both teams.

The Clips aren’t that bad but combined with the Grizz on the court at the same time….wow. Apocalyptic.
Philosurfer3

With Eric Gordon’s injury now changed from 3 wks to 3-6wks, should I consider dropping him for someone like Brook Lopez, Ginobli, or Z.Randolph?
Anonymous

No commentary re: Bogut’s injury?!? Goes to show how fast things can change this year. I must grovel for forgiveness after bashing Skiles yesterday – not that it wasn’t justified – and contritely ask: Who’s the better pick-up between Gooden and Illyasova?

And the only good thing about the ABA throwbacks is they didn’t roll out the original short shorts…but I do wish they’d use the ABA ball which was righteous.
http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

Yeah, I saw a clip. Middle School practice jerseys is the perfect description. Why NBA? Why do you do that? If I were one of the Grizzlies, I would have protested and refused to wear that.
http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

Sorry about that… I guess since I read all the comments I felt like we already knew a lot about Bogut…

Gooden’s already been picked up in all my leagues, so that’s who people are going with over Ilyasova, and I think that’s the right choice. I was called a jackal by Bogut’s owner for picking him up in the one league where I got him, but I was like “We talked about it at lunch! You had 24 hours!” In deep leagues, though, Ilyasova is probably worth a speculative add just in case.
http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

I’d go with Lopez if he’s available. Latest says 2-4 weeks for him and 3-6 for the other two still.
http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

If you’re a Bogut owner, I’d say hang on to him until we get an actual time table… sounds like it could be 6 weeks to end of season… If you can hang for 6 weeks, then you probably have to hold onto him.
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

The good news is that with Wade in your lineup you team projects pretty well. Even with Lopez out, a healthy Wade gives you strengths in points, assists, steals, FTM and FT%. Your only real weakness is TOs. Once Lopez comes back you’ll be even stronger. It’s been a tough go of it for sure with Wade missing 7 straight games, but he’s practicing with the team and should be back on he court by early next week. I’d sit tight for now and not panic.

My one general suggestion is that being in a league that counts FTM and FGM, it heavily skews things towards scoring types that can get to the line. You’ve got a great job so far stockpiling scorers (Henderson is great for your league for example), but if you could get 1 more scorer I think it would push you over the top.
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

The way Gordon is going we probably won’t even see him on the court the rest of the season.

I’m only half joking about that. I agree with Nels, Lopez should be back on the court first.
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

I traded away Paul George for Bogut in one league earlier this year.

I’m too busy crying in the corner to provide any meaningful commentary on the situation…
Anonymous

No worries, I was a bit out of the loop yesterday and, of course, GMTR is always my first fantasy stop daily! Was able to snatch Gooden from the waiver wire by virtue of my need for a decent F since I’m not a Bogut owner. However, myy condolences to Patrick, that’s a bitter pill to be sure…
shish

Hi,

Need some help on who to start tonight…please note that I am a bit ahead on my GP pace so no pressure to start too many if not sure…What I am looking for is a decent TYPICAL line from any starter I choose. for each of the following I have a concern/doubt – hope you can help me out here..
1) Jordan Farmar @CLE OR Rudy Fernandez vs. TOR – I need a boost in AST and decent FG% from my starter here. Rudy is coming back from an injury and Ty Lawson will probably not play vs. TOR tonight. Farmar has been playing good lately…I WILL DEFINITELY START ONE OF THEM.
2) Nicolas Batum vs. PHO – minutes are still a concern, but friendly opponent and nice line in the last game. also good chance for garbage time which might result in more minutes?
3) Iman Shumpert @MIA – tough matchup, coming off 2 bad shooting nights, Carmelo is out, good chance for garbage time…
4)Emeka Okafor vs. ORL – another tough matchup, but ORL are not doing so good lately..
5) Drew Gooden @ CHI – the new starter! but…tough matchup, good chance for garbage time…and we are still not 100$ about his minutes…
Thank yo so much for your help.
Anonymous

Non-keeper league. Who you do guys like more for the rest of the season? Conley or Rubio? Hibbert or DeAndre?
Panicking!!

Hello there! I check this site everyday for insight and it has really been helping my team out but right now really need some expert analysis! I play in a Yahoo! daily H2H default league with 12 teams 9 categories and I’m in second place. I’ve been hit with a few serious injuries lately and I don’t know what to do with them (Eric Gordon and Andrea Bargnani). It would also help if you could analyze my team’s strengths and weaknesses and trade ideas to get ready for the playoffs. Here’s my team!

Kevin Durant
John Wall
Eric Gordon
Joe Johnson
Greg Monroe
Tony Parker
Kyrie Irving
Andrea Bargnani
Nicolas Batum
Ryan Anderson
OJ Mayo
Richard Jefferson
James Johnson

Some notable free agents are Chuck Hayes, Amir Johnson, Chandler Parsons, Brandon Rush. Thanks for your time and input!
Philosurfer3

Someone is thinking about trading me Stoudamire/J.Wall for K.Love in an 8-team 9-cat yahoo league. What do you think about that trade? Should I accept it? The rest of my team is:

B.Jennings, J.Jack, J.Holiday, Gallinari, S.Marion, D.West, K.Love, Bosh, Westbrook, K.Walker, Lawson, Gay, & B.Lopez.
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

Hey shish, sorry for not getting back to you prompt yesterday before the games. I’m usually taking care of my daughter in the 3-4 hours leading up to tip off on most nights, and because of that, I’m mostly MIA during that time.

Although honestly I’ve had pretty bad luck predicting who to play on a specific night (it really is a crapshoot despite all our best efforts) I’ll give you my general philosophy on starting players in case it helps going forward. It sounds like I have a similar setup to you in one league – I play in a daily change roto league with a deep bench and a cap on max games – so I often have to decide to start a player or sit them on any given night.

My number 1 criterion is definitely overall talent level of the player in relation to my need. If I have a good player with a bad match up I’ll generally play them anyway. If I need a stat like you did with assists, 1) I’ll start the best player I have who fits that need, but 2) longer term if I’m down a stat it’s time to looking for trades.

#2 is opportunity. If a guy is going to get plenty of run thanks to an injury or something else then I’m more likely to start them.

#3 is matchup. If I have a marginal guy with a very good or very bad matchup I might be more imclined to start or sit them. But I don’t try to predict blowouts or garbage time minutes -I’m sure I’d be way off on that all the time anyway.

I don’t really take into account past performance that much. In fact, I might be more inclined to start a guy after a bad game provided he’s not hurt using the “he’s due for a bounceback game” theory. In that roto league, I’m conducting an experiment where I only start Tony Allen after he has horrible game, which is often. The last two times I’ve started him, he has a combined 10 steals.

So, that being said, without knowing the rest of your team, I probably would have suggested starting Farmar (for your need in assists) over Fernandez. Looks like both had good games last night. I would have also suggested starting Shumpert (with Melo out) and Gooden (with Bogut out). Shumpert bombed against the Heat, but Gooden was great. And maybe even Batum given his overall talent level and favorable matchup. Despite the strong win by Portland, Batum was kind of meh in the game.
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

Conley/Rubio is a close one. I’d go with Conley despite a couple bad game recently because I feel slightly more confident knowing what I’m going to get from him the rest of the season and also Rubio’s FG% has really started to creep down to the level we thought it was going to be in out predictions for him. I’m a percentages guy, so Conley for me.

And Hibbert all the way in the battle against Jordan. Hibbert’s game has take a nice step forward this year and he’s a much more complete player than Jordan is.
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

Who would be the guy you would drop if the trade were to happen?
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

Thanks for the kind words about the site – we definitely appreciate it. And I wish I had some better news for you, but it looks like you are going to have a tough go of it while as long as Bargnani and Gordon are injured and stashed on your bench. Gordon is out at least another 3 to 6 weeks with that knee injury. I’m going to guess it’s closer to 6 for Gordon, is not more. And Bargnani is out “indefinitely” with a calf injury he described as much worse than the one that kept him out 6 games. So I’d expect him to be out at least a couple weeks, if not more.

So, analyzing your team without Gordon and Bargnani and playing 2 men down, I have you are still above league average in threes (thank you Ryan Anderson) and FT%. You’re also pretty close to average in points, assists, TOs, blocks and FG%, so you definitely have the ability to survive over the next few weeks waiting for your team to get healthy. Your weakest cats are rebounds and steals, where you are quite a bit below league average.

The way to survive injuries like this in an H2H league is to focus in on winning 5 categories and punt the rest for now. Going 5-4 every week might not sound great, but it’ll keep your team above water waiting for your players to come back. So I think you either need to go a little smaller and try to improve your position in points and steals, or go bigger and improve your position in blocks and FG%.

I’d jump on a guy like Kirk Hinrich if he’s available for those assists and just try to go small. It fits with the style of your team better. You might actually want to drop Jefferson, who isn’t doing much for you team other than threes.

Good luck!
Anonymous

Awesome! Thanks for the confirmation Patrick, I pulled the trigger on my Jordan for his Hibbert last night, and despite Hibbert’s ankle injury, I’m still pretty happy with the deal.
Philosurfer3

Marion or Walker most likely. Would that make it a good move?
Panicking!!

So you would recommend just keeping my injured players on the bench as opposed to dropping them? Is it because they are too good to drop? What’s an example of an injured player who is droppable?
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

Whether to drop an injured player depends on a number of factors, like your particular league setup, the position of your team in the league and the specific player. In your case, both Bargnani and Gordon are good enough that you’re going to want to keep them. Plus, being 2nd in the league, your team isn’t in panic mode yet. If you were in the bottom third of the league with a weak team, I might have recommended you drop Gordon.

Gordon is a guy that I think some teams have to look at trading or dropping at this point. But your strong enough to weather the storm until he gets back,
Kim

Thank you for the advice.
Kim

Thanks for the response. I also want to trade Marcus Thorton, but I am not sure whether others want him when he is injured.
http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

You can’t know unless you try. Start with owners who could use Thornton’s stats and are higher ranked in the league and can afford to sit on an injured player.

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