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  • Day 46 of 124: Bad Girlfriend Syndrome

    Line of the Night: Every so often, Josh Smith (2.96 WARP) will take his game to the next level and destroy everything in sight. His 28 points (on 11-17 from the field), with 12 rebounds, 5 steals and 3 blocks in a 97-87 win over the Pacers was one of those games. Smith played nearly the entire game (46 minutes) as Larry Drew was riding him like a magical unicorn. For the season, Smith has done exactly what we expected from him, except for those pesky free throws, as he’s currently shooting a career-low 54% from the line.

    Honorable Mentions: Carlos Delfino (2.74) is like that ex-girlfriend that Erik keeps taking back despite the fact that the last time they broke up she burned all his clothes and stole his dog. Well, Delfino is knocking on your door Erik and he wants to talk – with a 25 points, 6 three, 9 rebound and 4 steal performance against the Raptors. After two games of seeing less than 20 minutes on the court, Delfino got 34 minutes of run (likely thanks to Ersan Ilyasova sitting out with back spasms) and felt comfortable in the city he played back in 2007-08.

    For the Raptors, DeMar DeRozan (1.39) scored 25 points and was 4-6 from three. DeRozan owners must be happy to see that he’s now strung together three pretty good games (baby steps!). Jose Calderon (1.16) also added 15 assists in the game to 1 turnover and is the ultimate Ast/To ratio guy if you happen to play in a league with that stat.

    The fun thing about owning Dwight Howard (2.73) is that’s he’s the absolute best at what he does – and that’s completely and utterly dominating the paint. Howard had 25 points (on 9-14 shooting), with 24 rebounds, 3 steals and 2 blocks in a 102-89 win over the Heat. His free throw shooting (7 of 10) was even acceptable. The dominate Ryan Anderson also returned for this game, scoring 27 points, grabbing 11 boards and hitting 5-11 from three.

    For the Heat, Dwyane Wade (1.99) scored 33 points (shooting 15-24 from the field) and added 3 blocks. LeBron James (0.76) did have a 17, 6 and 10, but also shot 5-15 from the floor. Mario Chalmers was a surprise scratch from this game with a hand injury, so Norris Cole (-0.28) – remember him – got the start and had a quiet 9 points and 4 assists in 31 minutes.

    Deron Williams (2.51) shot 6-9 from three and finished with 34 points and 7 assists in a loss to the Pistons. You know something is wrong with the way you’ve built your team when your second best player is the back-up point guard… Jordan Farmar (1.24) scored 22 and hit 3 threes off the bench (ok, in fairness injuries have a lot to do with that for the Nets). Greg Monroe (1.96) went for 20 and 12 with 3 blocks for the Pistons.

    Manu Ginobili is targeting this weekend for a return to the court, but the Spurs don’t need him the way Tony Parker (2.23) has been playing lately. Two games after scoring 42 points, Parker dropped another 37, adding 8 assists in a win over the Sixers. Parker owners this is your official GMTR warning – now is the time to sell high. Think he’s going to be putting up these lines when Manu is back? No, I very much doubt he will.

    It’s been a bit touch and go for Vince Carter (2.27) over his last four games, but last night was all go for Carter as he scored 17 points, with 3 threes, 5 rebounds and 8 assists as the Mavs beat the Nuggets. Good to see that Dirk Nowitzki (1.86) also chipped in 25 points and 9 boards.

    And finally, I had to mention Jeremy Lin (1.73). I believe the Knicks are planning on erecting a statue of him outside the Garden after his 23 point and 10 assist performance in a win over the Wizards. If you’re on the fence about what to do with Baron Davis, Lin is making your decision much easier. Now that the Knicks finally have a competent PG who knows how to run a pick and roll, the team doesn’t have to rush Davis back to the court. It not that Lin is definitely going to be the starter once Davis returns, but with Davis already out until at least the all-star break and probably longer than that, he can be dropped in daily changes H2H leagues at this point.

    ***

    Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Gary Neal (2.20) scored 18 points and added 4 threes, 5 rebounds and 6 assists in 30 minutes off the bench for the Spurs. With Manu returning to the court soon and with Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard to fight with minutes for, Neal is definitely a guy to simply leave on waivers. But nice game though.

    Pick Up Lines: With Kyrie Irving out of the Cavs game with a concussion, Ramon Sessions (2.18) got his first start of the season and blew it out with a season high 24 points and 13 assists against Chris Paul and the Clips. Classic Sessions – and it’s the reason why so many NBA teams were looking to trade for him – including the Knicks before they developed Linfever. Once Irving returns to the court, Sessions returns to the bench where he has actually been getting a decent 25+ minutes a game lately. I wouldn’t pick him up though, for the simple reason that…

    Daniel Gibson (0.93) returned to the court after missing five games with a neck infection. He also benefitted from Irving’s absence, scoring 17 points in 36 minutes. Keep an eye on his minutes going forward if you are in a deeper league.

    Is Mike Dunleavy (2.16) stalking me? Every time I turn around, there he is. Back away, I need some space, dude. Anyway, Dunleavy scored 18 points and added 3 threes, 7 rebounds and 2 blocks in 32 minutes off the bench for the Bucks. Like every Buck not named Brandon Jennings, his minutes tend to fluctuate wildly from game to game, but if you can deal with the inconsistency, he is at least worth looking at in deep leagues as a scoring/threes guy.

    With Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony both out for the Knicks, Steve Novak (2.05) is doing his best Amarelo impersonation, scoring 19 points off the bench for the second straight game. He was also 5-9 from three and added 5 rebounds. If you are the streaming type, Amare is out the rest of the week due to the tragic death of his brother, giving Novak at least two more games to shine. Pick him up for the weekend and probably send him packing once Amare returns.

    I know he’s not the sexiest guy to own (in terms of stats; in real life he’s actual a handsome dude), but Courtney Lee’s (1.62) ownership should probably be higher than the 6% he’s currently owned in Yahoo leagues. Lee scored 16 points and hit 4 threes in 31 minutes off the bench against the Blazers. He’s been getting 30 minutes in a reserve role for Houston and plays in deeper leagues, especially in roto leagues where his do a little bit of everything type game is most useful. Lee’s teammate Chase Budinger (1.51) scored 22 points off the bench and hit 4 threes as well. After being buried for a while Budinger has worked his way back into Kevin McHale’s rotation… for now. And with Samuel Dalembert completely disappearing for the Rockets, Patrick Patterson (-0.11) has been seeing a little more run lately. However, his 11 points and 7 boards isn’t anything to get excited about unless you happen to play in a 16+ team league.

    James Johnson (1.54) actually had the best fantasy game for the Raptors last night over DeRozan, doing what he does best by scoring 15 points and adding 7 rebounds, 2 steals and 3 blocks. If you want consistency out of your players, Johnson – and all the Raptors in fact – aren’t for you, but he does have the ability to put up plus defensive numbers as long as he’s getting run.

    Rudy Fernandez (0.81) scored 17 points and hit a couple threes in the Nuggets first game without Danilo Gallinari. Fernandez saw 29 minutes off the bench, which is actually not much more than he’s been getting with Gallinari in the lineup. Still, he makes a decent add if you need threes and points. Rookie Julyan Stone (-0.56) actually got the start at SF and played a measly 7 minutes.

    Kirk Hinrich (1.20) is doing exactly what Jeff Teague owners feared he would – he’s starting to eat into Teague’s minutes and fantasy performance. Hinrich caught fire from the floor against the Pacers, hit 7 of his 9 shots and finished with 17 points and 4 assists. For now, Hinrich is more of a party crasher for Teague owners than anything and if the timeshare keeps up, neither will be worth owning in normal sized leagues.

    Biggest Loser: Welcome back to the court Raymond Felton (-1.12)! Maybe you should have taken off another game… Felton did have 9 points 6 assists in his return to the court against the Rockets, but complemented that with 5 turnovers and a 4-11 shooting performance.

    Jarrett Jack (-1.08) also returned to the court after missing three games and also should have thought about sitting this one out. In 28 minutes, he finished with 4 points, 3 assists and shot 2-11 from the field. Better times ahead for both of these guys.

    And hey, I’ve been saying this both on our podcast and on the blog, but last week was the time to sell high on Brandon Jennings (-0.93). His iffy shot has started to rear its ugly head. Jennings was 3-12 from the floor against Toronto and finished with 11 points and 4 assists. Jennings has now shot 34% from the floor over his last 5 games.

    ***

    Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.

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    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

      There are some slight concerns, yes. He’s still worth a Gooden when he was healthy. An alternative would be to go for DJ Augustin, but then again his healthy numbers might not provide value equal to a Bogut-less Gooden.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

      I’m not too thrilled with the move. When Dirk gets better, and he is already, but much more after all-star; He and Aldridge would comprise a solid core for your team playing the percentages. The only player who really was killing that game, IS Danny Granger. Wade is ok as far as the counting cats go, but here at GMTR we’re generally more fond of the percentages approach versus countings. Wade is a potential upgrade in overall value as he seems healthy enough right now, but a superior move would have been to trade away Danny Granger for a G or F with good shooting percentages.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

      A#1: Mo Williams fits your team the best. I can see you as a solid %s team with 3s. Mo fits that bill. You can drop Sammy for him… Go.

      A#2: Bosh is slumping because of Wade’s return. On the other hand, Phoenix is only starting to get its engine humming. The key thing I did notice is that you CAN punt Nash’s assists. BUT the catch is that Terry will occasionally mess with your FG%. I’d stand pat for now…

    • Eric

      So this team in my 14 team league has Dalembert, Joakim Noah, Amare, and Deandre Jordan. I’m looking to trade Marc Gasol to him for 2 of these players and I was wondering if the combination of Dalembert + Amare was a good deal? If not which other combination would you suggest?

    • i love gmtr

      hmm. Well, shame you don’t think it was the best move. But I will stick with it. At least wade shoots pretty well for a guard!

      I can now swap Gooden for Kyrie Irving and go for small ball stats maybe, and Irving is about as good of a fg% helping PG as you will find. What do you think of that? Is the concussion on opporunity to get him on the cheap, or a risky move?

      Thanks!

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

      For the record, I only like playing percentages because they’re the only categories I ever seem to win.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      I’m certainly no expert on the Chinese basketball association, but I did see that their regular season does indeed end on 2/15. From what I’ve read, Chandler’s team is expected to make the playoffs (although from what I can see on 
      http://www.asia-basket.com/China/basketball.asp  his team is currently in 8th place). If he does make the playoffs, his arrival will be pushed back anywhere from a couple weeks to up to a few months. I can’t however, find a CBA playoff schedule anywhere. 

      http://aol.sportingnews.com/nba/story/2012-02-09/wilson-chandler-nuggets-kenyon-martin-clippers-chinese-new-year 

    • Velvet

      Thanks Erik for your insight. Do you think I should package david west with Nash for something. David West has been quite a disappointment. 

      and although bosh is slumping do you think he can at least average something 17-8 for the rest of the season shooting ~.500? 

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      They sort of co-existed last season together, but they were both limited to about 30-31 minutes a game. If I remember correctly, Gallo finished in the 50-55 range on our rater last season, so yeah, there is a chance that his fantasy value could take a hit with Chandler in the lineup. Although a lot of Gallo’s jump in value this season has actually come from a bump in FG% and FT%, which could be sustainable even with Chandler back on the team.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      I think an Allen trade could work – I think you’d just have to find a way to replace Gay’s steals to have a better than average chance to win that category.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      A Zoe Saldana bad girlfriend t-shirt? That works for me :)

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      If Gee keeps playing like he has over the past couple weeks, he’s nearly as valuable as Batum. Overall it’a a very good trade for you, according to my calculations, you’ll gain about 0.10 WARP per week in overall value and like you said, the trade matches the categories you’re looking for. 

    • http://twitter.com/cudiondat Tony James

       I tried to throw him Ibaka instead of Gasol and he still rejected, so I’m NOT going through with it at all. Kevin Martin was the only thing that was tempting, but he’s been on a real shooting slump, so forget I even mentioned it! Haha, thanks though Erik!

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      I have to agree with Erik on this one. It’s a trade that sounds good in name value, but Nene has had a really rough start to the season and Dudley has been playing a lot better lately. According to our player rater, I’ve got that trade as a net loss of 0.25-0.5 wins per week, even assuming that Nene bounces back somewhat.

      Although he’d be a great guy to pick up, Westbrook is going to be a tough get I think. You could always try packaging Gasol + Dudley or Brooks for Westbrook and see what happens, but I think that’s a long shot. 

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

      That’s a possibility on Bosh. I’d keep Nash because he doesn’t hurt your FG%. I’d package West with someone else really

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

      It’s a strong offer to get peace of mind from your big man. If I was your leaguemate, I’d take it. If I was hot for Marc, I’d offer it. Since it’s a 2:1, ask for a bit of “kicker value” from player x that he can offer so it ends up a 2:2.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      I don’t think Dalembert is worth trading for at this point. It’s only a matter of time before he loses his starting job thanks to some really uninspired play as of late. I do like Amare – the Knicks finally found a PG in Lin who can run a pick and roll and we all know that is Amare’s bread and butter. With Chandler and Melo around he’s going to have a tough time being the Amare of old, but I do think he’ll be better with Lin running the offense. I’d consider him a buy low candidate.

      So you could first try something like Gasol for Amare + Jordan, which is actually a fair trade based on the way they’ve all played this season, but in terms of name value it looks lopsided. Amare + Noah is even more like that. So you might have to live with Amare + Dalembert if you really wanted to make the trade. 

      The other option would be Noah + Jordan, which would be a plus in your favor I think. 

      The question is, why do you want to flip Gasol? 

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

      oops! dyslexic moment, I misread your comment. Keep Marc! Keep him!

    • Eric

      Haha thanks Patrick and Erik, I like your opinions even when you don’t agree, helps me see both sides of the coin but when you guys do agree, I feel like its a 1 sided coin hahaha Anyhow, I feel like flipping Gasol because I’m worried about the hit in value he’ll take when Zach Randolph comes back. My big men look like

      Drew Gooden, Marc Gasol, Trevor Booker, and Biyombo  so I think it wouldn’t be bad to trade out an A + D for 2 B+ players? What do you guys think? 

    • Ly

      I think he worst I have is ben gordon, everyone else is pretty solid.

      Would you drop ben gordon to stash Chanlder as the time comes near? 

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

      If you’re in a weekly changes league, yes. I would.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Yeah, I agree with you about Gasol, who is flying high at the moment. In fact, you can already start to see a little regression in his stats looking at his game log. If you trade for Amare, it’s doubtful you are going to win the blocks category, so Biyombo would also be droppable. 

      But I’m not sure how exactly to make your pieces fit with a trade to maximize your value. The question about Amare is how much better is he going to get? Even if Gasol regresses, Amare still might be worse than him unless Lin makes him a lot better. It’s a risky trade for you for sure, although there is a chance it works out for you in the end. 

    • Pingback: Day 47 of 124: Chasing Budinger | Give Me The Rock

    • Jason

      I’ve been offered Jose Caledron and Jason Terry for James Harden and Greivis Vasquez. Assists is my worst category this season (will be 2-5 after this week) so Caledron would be a nice boost there. I was close to dropping Greivis anyway. Thoughts?