Day 47 of 124: Chasing Budinger

Categorized as: Author: Nels, Fantasy Basketball, Golden State Warriors
Posted on: February 10th, 2012

or: I should never give up on Channing Frye

Line of the Night: Stephen Curry (3.19) 36 points (6 threes, 13-17 from the field), 7 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 blocks

Honorable Mentions: Channing Frye (2.07) is back as the Suns starting PF and loved every one of his 41 minutes to the tune of 21 points (4 threes), 10 rebounds, 2 steals, and 2 blocks. Thank goodness I added him back to my team yesterday.

Just another day at the office for Pau Gasol (1.73), who had 25 points (12-20 from the field), 14 rebounds, and 2 blocks. Okay, it was a good game for Pau in a tightly contested battle against the Celtics. Sorry Patrick, I think the C’s are finally over the hill. That won’t stop me from riding Paul Pierce (1.02) and his 18 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists, though. Also in that game, Andrew Bynum (1.25) put up 16 points, 17 rebounds, and 3 blocks. And I’ve got him in the GMTR keeper league. So if nothing else, there’s that.

You don’t need to do much more than score 6 points and get 9 rebounds when you block 10. And that is what Serge Ibaka (1.62) did to land himself at #4 for the night.

Kevin Durant (1.33) did his thing with 27 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 steals.

And just when we’d all given up on Arron Afflalo (1.33), he busts out for 26 points (5 threes, 5-5 from the line). Justin Kendall blogged it last night and picked him up in our Experts’ League at 4:31 am this morning after I suffered through his cold streak with daily changes before finally jettisoning him last week. I hope he goes back to shooting horribly and scoring in the barely single digits (yes, I know that doesn’t really make sense, so what?)

***

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Chase Budinger (1.35) continued his now 3-game long run of double-digit scoring with rebounds and threes with 12 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists. He even added 2 steals for good measure, leading to 37% ownership. I’ve picked him up in one of my leagues (if that means anything to you).

Pick Up Lines: Kyle Lowry started and played 25 minutes after injuring his elbow in the Rockets last game, but he was clearly showing some ill effects, going just 5-13 from the floor (2 threes, though). Goran Dragic (1.15) ended up playing almost 32 minutes (thanks also to Kevin Martin – more on that below) and scored 11 points matching his 11 assists while getting 2 steals (7% owned). The 32 minutes was his 3rd highest total of the season, so don’t expect to see that sort of thing from Dragic unless Lowry or Martin get injured (for real injured, not just hyperextended elbow injured).

Klay Thompson (1.01) came off the bench for the Warriors and in only 17 minutes he put up 19 points (3 threes, 8-11 from the field) (3% owned). I’m invoking the 70% rule here, which says that if a guy shows up out of nowhere (or pretty much nowhere) and has a well-rated game but shoots more than 70%, it doesn’t really count. Klay has had some pretty good games earlier, but until he breaks through the 17 minute barrier, he won’t be redeeming his Golden Ticket for any Everlasting Gobstoppers. If that doesn’t happen this season, remember him when the time comes for your draft next year.

Donte Greene (0.70) is probably worth a look in deep leagues. After returning from a spate of missed games, he played 23 and then 16 minutes, scoring 10 points with 2 steals in the latter. The Kings starter, John Salmons played 36 minutes but went 2-10 for 5 points. If Salmons plays a few more games like that, you can bet Green is going to see more time and his 1% ownership will look a bit snarky in hindsight.

The Player Rater loves defense. Ekpe Udoh (0.65) had 0 points, but got 2 steals and 5 blocks (3% owned). He’s up to 21 minutes per game in the 4 games so far in February, despite only scoring 3.8 points per game. Evidently coaches love defense too. Udoh has 0.6 steals and 1.6 blocks for the season, but 0.8 and 2.5 so far in February. Is he a poor man’s Bismack Biyombo? Or a rich man’s Bismack Biyombo?

Grant Hill (0.62) is the opposite of a Bad Girlfriend… Maybe cause he seems like such a nice guy, but mainly because he’s done me right in the past and I feel like I owe him another chance. I know it’s misguided, but look at the 11 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists (19% owned). What’s not to love? Sure, it’s not big ~~boobs~~ blocks, or a lot of steals, but I think we all know he stole my heart.

With Luis Scola continuing to do little beyond putting the ball in the hole with a modicum of efficiency, the Rockets are searching for a big man, any big man, who can play basketball. Chandler Parsons had a horrible game and we’ve seen that Chase Budinger can take advantage of that. Samuel Dalembert also had a terrible game (2-7 with 1 block) and so Patrick Patterson (0.60) played 25 minutes, taking the opportunity to score 14 points (6-8 from the field), and grab 6 rebounds (3% owned). If Dalembert continues to play like crap after his brief run of decent games, Patterson is looking like a pretty good Points, Rebounds, FG% guy. He’s not a great shot blocker, but he doesn’t turn it over much either nor does he shoot many free throws, so don’t let the 54% fool you.

Daequan Cook (0.58) had another pretty decent game for the Thunder in place of the still injured Thabo Sefolosha. Cook scored 11 points on 4-8 shooting, including 3 threes to go with 3 rebounds and a block.

Biggest Loser: Half the Rockets are struggling and none more so than Kevin Martin (-0.82). I have to think Martin must be injured after playing only 15 and 13 minutes in the last two games. Last night he had only 2 points and 1 assist with 2 turnovers. Can we get some sort of doctor’s note to excuse his absence?

***

Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.

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Tags: Chase Budinger, Donte Greene, Ekpe Udoh, Kevin Martin, Klay Thompson, Stephen Curry

Jeremy

How about Afflalo? Just dropped him the other day, my opponent picks him up and he drop 5 threes on me.

That’s fantasy
Jeremy

oh, just read that you went through basically the same shit…he’ll go back to being regular old afflals soon enough
Justin

Thanks for the link, Nels. I’ll probably regret dropping General Greivis for Afflalo, oh by tonight.
Dsddd

I cut felton to get frye. my other option was j jack or j teague or varejao. I was desperate for 3s. do you guys think i made a good move? also should i pick up marshon for any of the guys i mentioned?
http://twitter.com/conradburry Conrad Burry

Seems like u were right about Frye, Patrick. I scooped him in 2 leagues last night (one as a free add b/c of a 2-for-1 and one by dropping Bayless). I also dropped B. Knight to stash / spot-start Sessions. U liking all those transactions?

Also, new Qs for today: I just saw that MarShon is close to coming back, so do I drop Frye for him (stats = 1pt, asts = 2pts, TOs = -1pt)?

In another league (daily lineups, 3 bench spots, all stats = 1pt, FG and FT misses = -1pt), do I drop Camby and/or Kemba for Budinger, Bropez, MarShon, or Delfino?

Thanks, gents!
Srburrus

I have been wrestling with the idea of trading Andre miller and Luis scola for Gallo. I am comfortably in first place, so preparing for the playoffs makes sense. But I don’t want to give up too much value. Thoughts?
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

It depends on the rest of your team, but Felton is shooting 37% from the field this season – and that’s a tough pill to swallow for 7 assists a game. He’s currently ranked 131 on our rater – so he does have some value in normal fantasy leagues, although probably not as much as most people think.

I am not that enthusiastic about Brooks, I think the Nets bring him along slowly in hopes that he doesn’t get hurt again, so I would necessarily suggest that people rush to pick him up.
That being said, Teague also worries me now that he’s splitting time with Hinrich. I might give Teague another game or two before I’d consider dropping him, but ultimately he might be expendable if he’s only getting 25 minutes a game.
http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

I hope so, for both our sakes.
http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

I hope so, for both our sakes. No, wait. Just mine.
Mike

Hey guys, who do you like more for the rest of the season, Luke Ridnour or Rodney Stuckey?
I have my doubts about both, mainly due to the jj barea emerging and and also Stuckeys health concerns and borderline value so far this season.

Thanks in advance
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

I’m the guy who drafted Frye in multiple leagues, so yeah, I’m loving the fact that he’s shown up for the season. Someone should have told him that it actually started in December.

Sessions is a lottery ticket at this point. He’s got a small chance of hitting big, and a chance of not panning out at all. I think that fits with the type of guy your looking for out of that spot.

I would definitely not touch Delfino with a 10 foot pole. Budinger is also way too inconsistent for my taste. I would stash Lopez if you have the ability to sit on him for a couple weeks (say, for Camby). Brooks is an ok add if you want to take a shot on his upside, although as I’ve mentioned, I don’t have a great feeling about him.
http://lifeisfantasybasketball.blogspot.com/ Justin

Ha! I think the same way whenever I cut a player.
http://twitter.com/conradburry Conrad Burry

thx, Patrick. i see what you’re saying there. i might stash ol’ Bropez, as Brooks will likely be affected by Morrow and Bropez here in a couple weeks.
Jeremy

Who would you start tonight between JRich, Wesley Matthews, and Reggie Williams – choose two

Pretty sold on JRich, can’t decide between Wes and Reggie. Sort of think Wes is more inclined to contribute in all categories than Reggie, plus I really don’t know exactly what to expect from Reggie given he’s only been back the past three games, but has looked pretty solid
http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

The way Scola is playing, that’s probably too little value to give up! If Gallo returns on schedule in a little less than a month from now, I think that’s a good move. Even at his best, Scola is basically just a points and rebounds guy while Miller is an assists guy with a little extra thrown in here and there.
http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

I’d go with Stuckey. Ridnour seems to get hot and then cool off many times over the course of a given season. The Piston seem to be solidly behind Stuckey and his numbers are pretty consistent.
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

The ghost of Wilson Chandler hangs over everything, but like Nels said, if you can afford to sit on Gallo for a few weeks, then your not giving up much for a probable top-50 player. The disappearance of Scola has to be one of the more unexpected developments this season.
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

What stats are you looking for? Or is it as much of everything as I can get type of situation? One factor that might sway my decision is that the Bobcats play the Bulls tonight, which according to Basketball Monster’s ease rankings, is the worst team to play against for fantasy purposes. As a result, I’d lean towards Richardson and Matthews.

// cue up Reggie Williams explosion in t-minus 8 hours //
TheEvilEmpire142

Paaaaatrick! Please help. I think i fuzzed up. I dont know if you recall, but you ve run my team a few times for me this year, and i think i traded the wrong guy. I had Steph all year, but just traded him for Granger and Collison. Well Curry, Farmar and James Johnson for Granger collison and Reggie wiiiliams. Just to recap, Its a 12 team, 13 man daily league (highy competitive). 12 categories, FGM, FG%, FTM, FT%, 3PM, 3P%, PTS, ASTS, STLS, REB, BLKS, TOs. My team WAS as follows, with the new players in parenthesis…

PG Steph Curry (Danny Granger)
SG Monta Ellis
PG Kyle Lowry
PG Jeff Teague
PG Jordan Farmar (Darren Collison)
PG Mario Chalmers
SG Jodie Meeks
SG Greives Vasquez
SF Wesley Matthews
SF Gordon Heyward
SF James Johnson (Reggie Williams)
PF Drew Gooden
C Andrea Bargnani (Muther@#$%^&&!!!)

My reasoning was that i needed a shooting power forward for my team, because of Bargs injury, Gooden plays Center. Also, i was trying to sell Steph before he stepped on someone else’s shoe and rolled his ankle. im aware im gonna take a big hit in %s, but is it really as bad as i think its gonna be?? I cant believe i traded Steph, as he and Monta are two of my favorite payers, and i actually drafted them 1 and 2 to build on my small ball team. Any comments on how you guys feel it might affect me long term? Again, i needed a small ball big, and Steph’s ever present gimpy ankle looming at the fore front of the trade… Thoughts? Thanks again!
zee

yo fellas what yal think about Rudy Fernandez? I rushed to pick him up after his 17 pt game from starting for Gallo but I’m starting to think dropping Kemba for him wasn’t such a good idea seeing him go 4-13… should I drop him? MAN IM BIPOLAR (I really want good FG% and 15 shots on 37% shooting from Kemba just ain’t cutting it) (10 team h2h daily 9 cat)
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

I can understand your worry trading Curry, but the news isn’t as bad as you think. Comparing your team to the average team in your league (assuming all your players – including Bargnani -are healthy), this the percentage better or worse you were compared to league average with your old team (based on a combo of YTD and recent stats):

pts 3%
reb -29%
ast 27%
stl 16%
blk -28%
to -8%
3pm 42%
fgm -1%
fgp 0%
ftm 3%
ftp 6%

And here is what your new team looks like now:

pts 8%
reb -26%
ast 25%
stl 8%
blk -40%
to -4%
3pm 40%
fgm 1%
fgp -3%
ftm 20%
ftp 7%

So what this is saying, your team is now 8% better in points than the average team in your league. The good news is that the trade doesn’t necessarily hurt you, thanks in part to the fact that you got some minor upgrades at other positions with Collison and Williams based on your team needs. And with Reggie Williams, I’m being rather conservative with his estimate. If he really does keep up the high wire act, then you’ll come out looking better in points, threes and FGM.

Granger and the rest help in points, TOs and FTM. You do lose FG% thanks to Granger (I’ve got you going from a team average of 46% to 44% with the trade – ouch) and you also lose steals. The trade doesn’t necessarily make you smaller, but I don’t think it’s a horrible one based on the categories you have in your league.

Of course, I am assuming through all of this that Bargnani is healthy and planning for your team, In reality, I can imagine your having a bit of a tough time with him out. The goal until he gets back should be just to focus on a smaller number of categories you have the best chance of winning and hammer those as best you can.

And if Curry goes down with another ankle injury, you’ll come out looking like a genius. So there is that. Good luck!
Jasonzjea

Hey was wondering if you guys might provide some advice for my team. I’ve tried to avoid doing this since it seems like a lot of work, but I’ve been so dominated by injuries I feel like I could stand to make a big trade. Standard 8cat league (no turnovers), 10teams, h2h daily. I’ve lost Bogut and Billups already, and have been storing Eric Gordon for forever (though I just recently dropped him). My team right now is looking at:

PG Jrue Holiday
PG Jeff Teague
PG/SG Tyreke Evans
SG Randy Foye
SG/SF Jared Dudley
SF Carmelo Anthony
SF/PF Gerald Wallace
PF Kevin Love
PF Trevor Booker
PF/C Greg Monroe
PF/C Channing Frye
C Andrew Bynum
C Samuel Dalembert

There are a lot of issues with my team. I’ve basically given up on assists. Is there anything I should be targeting? Is there any point in trying to improve assists? Also, who should I drop for the rest of this week (trying to max out games since I lost so many games to injuries and suspension), Foye, Booker, or Frye? Thanks for the help!
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

If you want good FG%, Kemba is definitely not your guy. But then neither is Fernandez. Rudy is one of those bad girlfriend types who likes to burn you as soon as you give him another chance (I know, I’ve been through it). But with Augustin expected back on the court by next week, I say stick with Fernandez for now unless he really starts to mess with you.
Anonymous

whose the better sell high, brandon jennings or lin? for value.
Eric

Speaking of Wilson Chandler, when would be a good time to stash him in 12 team leagues and (for my sake) 14 team leagues? I have scrubs I could drop for him now, like Marvin Williams (I know you guys keep telling me to drop him but his 3s and rebounds blind my every 4 games.)
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

Crazy as it sounds, you are going to get more value for Lin at the moment. Heard on Twitter of a Gay for Lin offer that was thrown out in an experts league. I say take advantage of Linsanity while you can.
Anonymous

I have too many PG. who you think a good forward is that I can target with Lin? Im looking for small ball stats
Jeremy

Ha, yeah more of an everything I can get situation. In the middle of a very tight matchup. Up by 1 three, 8 boards, 3 steals, and 2 blocks. Down by 7 assists.
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

Comparing your team to the average team in your league (assuming all your players are healthy), this the percentage better or worse you are on a weekly basis compared to league average. Note I am using the 2011-12 YTD stats with some adjustments for recent play over the last week or two.

pts 6%
reb 19%
ast -19%
stl 0%
blk 15%
3pm -12%
fgp 2%
ftp 0%

So what this is saying, your team is 4% better in points than the average team in your league. Not surprisingly, with a team as big as yours, your strengths are in boards and blocks. Weaknesses are in assists and threes. Overall, you’re a competitive team, but it’d be a good thing for you to focus a bit more on the big man cats.

In an H2H league, it is very tough to compete in every single category and is often counterproductive, especially when you have a lot of injuries. So I would totally forget about assists. In that case one guy you definitely don’t need is actually Jeff Teague, who hasn’t been that great recently anyway with Hinrich back for the Hawks. I would try and see if you can get anything for him in a trade and try to replace him with steals (maybe a guy like Tony Allen) or threes.

As a big team, you should be doing better in FG%, so long term you might want to try and trade a guy with horrible FG% like Tyreke Evans. Maybe an Evans for Ray Allen trade. You’ve got Love and Channing Frye (two of the better three point shooting big men) so you might as well try and build around that a little. Evans doesn’t take many threes and while he plays big with boards, he’s definitely hurting you in some other areas.

In terms of who to drop fror the week, definitely don’t drop Frye (who is playing great lately) or Booker (great fit with your team), so Foye would be the guy I kick.

Good luck!
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

I really have no idea what Lin’s value is to people right now. Have any Knicks’ fans in your league?

If the ceiling is someone like Gay, start high and work your way down. Danny Granger? Paul Pierce? James Harden? I don’t know what people are going to give up for Lin.
Juniper Green

Nels’ quote from the article above completely matches what I did (drafted the guy) and probably a lot of other folks … “I suffered through his cold streak with daily changes before finally
jettisoning him last week. I hope he goes back to shooting horribly and
scoring in the barely single digits (yes, I know that doesn’t really
make sense, so what?)”
I hope he falls off a freakin’ cliff. I mean, a statistical cliff.
Jasonzjea

Ok that makes sense to me, and is pretty much what I’ve been trying to do all season (trade Tyreke). Who would be a good pickup in place of Foye? I’m thinking Fields or Gee, but also am looking at JRich, VC, and possibly Ramon Sessions.

What’s frustrating about Tyreke is trying to make up his steals. I’m actually exactly middle of the league in steals (as your projection says), and I’ve basically been trying to find a trade that would improve me in three cats (steals, threes, fg%), while losing in rebounds/assists/points. I’m also targeting Gordon for whenever his timetable is announced.
TheEvilEmpire142

Thanks as always for the time and thoughts! And does it make me a horrible person to hope that Curry ‘tweaks’ his ankle?? lol! I’m not talking all out roll or sprain, just a little tweak! No no, but in all seriousness, I hope this pans out, as Bargs future is looking pretty bleak at the moment, so who knows whats gonna happen. And perhaps I’ll get me a Steph Curry jersey just so he knows this was business not personal. Maybe I’ll tell him the next time he comes over for tea. Thats what I’ll do. I’ll text him now to let him know he’s been traded, before he sees it on the front page of our fantasy league. God I love Fantasy Basketball!! lol!
Xragnarokswordx12

drop pekovic, turkoglu, batum, or gooden for picking up either elton brand, jarrett jack, or spencer hawes? I
know its better to get players who can give you categories you need but i want to know who has better value in the waiver wire.
I am in top 4 in league in rebounds, assists, and steals. I am average everywhere else except 3pts made.
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

It’s kind of a toss-up. If Chandler’s team doesn’t make the playoffs, then the CBA season ends on 2/15 and I’d assume he’s be back on the count in the NBA by the end of Feb. In that case, I could see grabbing him now and just sitting on him for the next couple of weeks. If his team does make the playoffs, then his return could be pushed back by up to a month.

I’m having a hell of a time trying to figure out what the likelihood of that is, even using an English website http://www.asia-basket.com/China/basketball.asp. It looks like Chandler’s team is currently in 8th place in the league and 8 teams make the playoffs.

Maybe Chandler should start tanking?
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

I think both Fields or Gee would be really good fits with your team. I like em both.
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

Gooden has been a top 60 player since Bogut got hurt, so you are definitely going to want to keep him. Pekovic is the Wolves starting center now and is playing well. Batum’s minutes are limited on that Blazers team, but he’s also putting up some good numbers lately and hitting a ton of threes. The only guy you have in that list who is slumping is Turkoglu.

Dropping Turk for Jack would have been a no-brainer – but news just broke that Jack is going to miss at least a week with a sore knee. So you actually might want to pick up Greivis Vasquez and ride him while Jack is out. Brand has been ok this year – I could see maybe dropping Turk for him – but I think Vasquez is a better play over the short term. And Hawes is day-to-day again and is expect to miss at least the Sixers upcoming road trip, so I wouldn’t bother with him.
Jeremy

For a quick add for threes would you go Novak or Neal tonight?
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

With Amare and Melo still out, I’d actually go with Novak. He’s taken at least 8 threes in each of the Knicks last three games.
Jeremy

would you advise dropping hawes for Neal? Opponent already snatched up Novak, but Neal is facing the nets who’ve allowed the most 3 pointers of any team. Not sure what Hawes status is, but in the middle of a heated battle for threes.
http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

Last I’ve heard about Hawes, he’s currently day-to-day and is expected to miss the Sixers current 3-game road trip. Sound familiar? I’d have no problem dropping Hawes at this point. And while I’d rather have Novak if I was specifically looking for threes, Neal is a good bet to hit at least 1-2, and possibly more based on the matchup. Go for it.

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Day 47 of 124: Chasing Budinger

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