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  • Day 49 of 124: Lin, Love and Ilyasova

    Author Icon for Patrick

    Categorized as: Author: Patrick, Cleveland Cavaliers, Fantasy Basketball, Injuries, Player News
    Posted on: February 12th, 2012

    Line of the Night: Kevin Love (2.78) did something against the Knicks last night that he’s done five other times in his career – and that’s go for at least 30 and 20 in a game. Love scored 32 points and grabbed 21 rebounds and despite that, was overshadowed by a certain PG on the other team who hit the game-winning free throw. It’s “only’ the second time that Love has gone for 20+ rebounds in a game this year, but the other one was a 31/20 against the Bucks on 12/27.

    Honorable Mentions: Chris Paul (2.30) led the Clippers to a 111-86 win over the hapless Charlotte Bobcats, scoring 18 points with a very Paul-like 5 rebounds and 14 assists. The player rater also wants us to respect Caron Butler’s (1.74) 16 points, 4 threes and 6 rebounds, maybe because he also had a steal and a block and shot 5-8 from the field. Blake Griffin (1.25) chipped in 21 and 10 in the game (come on man, we all know 30 and 20 is the new 20 and 10).

    For those of you who jumped on Randy Foye (0.56) when Chauncey Billups went down for the season, he had 12 points and 2 threes in that Clippers’ game. He’s not exactly setting the world on fire over the last three games, but it’s something if you need a warm body…

    The Bobcats’ best line came all the way down at #37 thanks to Kemba Walker’s (0.78) 19 points and 4 assists on 4-13 shooting. He puts the “shoot” in Volume Shooter. And in only his second game back from injury, the Bobcats desperately inserted Corey Maggette (-0.16) into the starting lineup in place of Tyrus Thomas. Maggette finished with 12 and 6 in 25 minutes, while Thomas got 18 minutes off the bench and finished with 11 and 5. Maggette is worth a look if you play in a deeper league until he gets injured again, but if you happen to still be holding onto Thomas, I think it’s time to do your fantasy team a favor and drop him now.

    Jason Richardson’s (2.23) start to the season was so brutal and injury prone I came very close to dropping him in one 12-man league where I couldn’t handle any more injuries. I’m glad I didn’t, as Richardson has turned things around over the last couple of weeks, including last night’s 31 point and 9 three game against the Bucks. Take that, Ryan Anderson. How sneaky good has Richardson been? Over the last two weeks, Richardson is ranked 10th on the GMTR player rater.

    More on the Bucks’ best performance below.

    Portland and Dallas went to 2 overtimes and yet still only finished with a score of 97-94. LaMarcus Aldridge (1.96) led the fantasy way with 33 points and 12 rebounds and Gerald Wallace (1.68) had 10 points, 10 rebounds and 4 steals in a losing effort.

    Dallas’ best line actually came from Jason Kidd (0.72), who only scored 5 points, but added 8 boards and 8 assists in 31 minutes. I think a developing theme to this season is that when old guys take off time to rest (a la Dirk), they’ve come back strong. Remember that for future trading purposes.

    Another guy who had a brutal start to the season was Jared Dudley (1.94). Like Richardson, he’s picked up his game recently, but in a win over the Kings last night he put up some next level shit: 20 points on 8-13 shooting with 3 threes, 10 rebounds, 2 steals and 2 blocks. If Dudley is someone still hanging out on your wire, you’ll want to snatch him up.

    Marcus Thornton (1.45) led the Kings with 21 points, hitting 46 from three, while DeMarcus Cousins (0.62) added 26 and 9.

    Finally, Jrue Holiday (1.67) helped the Sixers take down the Cavs with 20 points and 5 assists. And in his likely last start before the return of Kyrie Irving, Ramon Sessions continued his run with 19 points and 8 assists.

    ***

    Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Did Ersan Ilyasova (2.32) work out with Kevin Love over the summer or something? Ilyasova scored 17 points (on 7-10 from the field), with 16 rebounds in 33 minutes off the bench for the Bucks against the Magic. Ilyasova is now averaging a career best 8 rebounds per game (and 10.5 boards per 30). I’d love it if his minutes didn’t wildly swing from game to game like most of the Bucks, but he’s worth a look in most leagues if you’re in the market for a Kevin Love-extra-lite… well, provided that Scott Skiles gives him at least 25 minutes a game.

    Pick Up Lines: Nikola Pekovic (1.76) continues to do his thing with Darko Milicic increasingly yesterday’s news. He finished with 21 points (on 9-10 from the field) and 13 rebounds against the Knicks and is going to give you exactly that – points, rebounds and percentages.

    Remember Markieff Morris (1.67)? He had his first nice game off the bench for the Suns in what seems like forever with 18 points, 6 rebounds and 3 blocks against the Kings. He’s not shown any sort of consistency his rookie season, so leave him on waivers for now.

    If you were streaming for threes last night and happen to take a shot on Gary Neal (1.40), he made you happy with 18 points on 8-10 shooting and a couple threes in 23 minutes of the bench for the Spurs. A decent plug and play if you need threes is about what I’d consider his ceiling though.

    Iman Shumpert (1.30) will not go gentle into that good night. While the nation gets swept away in Jeremy Lin (-0.06) fever, Shumpert has quietly put together a few nice games in a row, including last night’s 20 points and 4 steals against the Wolves. Shumpert now has 9 steals over his last three games and remains one of the premier steals guys in the league. I wouldn’t necessarily go trading for him, but he’s a nice pickup if you are looking for a steals boost.

    And while he’s not a waiver wire player by any means any longer, I should mention that Linsanity remains red hot as Lin brought home another nice 20, 6 and 8 against the Wolves. Watch out though, he might be starting to press a little as he also shot 8-24 from the field, turned the ball over 6 times and had his shot blocked 4 times. The rest of the Knicks’ starting lineup combined for 30 shots.

    Speaking of Knicks, Steve Novak (0.99) went 4-6 from three and finished with 15 points and 6 rebounds. Novak has hit 16 threes over 4 games since Amare Stoudemire left the team, but it looks like his run is going to come to an end as Amare is expected back for the Knicks’ game on Tuesday against Toronto. It’s possible Novak keeps some portion of his minutes as the Knicks three point stretch the floor guy, but I’m not going to keep him on my team to find out.

    I wasn’t kidding the other day when I said that Jordan Farmar (1.24) might be the Nets second best player (not counting Lopez) right now. Famar got 31 minutes off the bench against the Spurs and finished with 12 points, 6 rebounds and 7 assists. He’s been getting close to 30 minutes a game off the bench and is worth a look in most leagues even as MarShon Brooks works his way back into the rotation.

    Alonzo Gee (0.65) just keeps putting up nice line after nice line for the Cavs, including yesterday’s 17 points and 6 rebounds in 24 minutes off the bench. He isn’t going to give you much other than points and some boards with good percentages, but unlike a lot of waiver wire guys out there (coughCarlosDelfinocough) he’s not going to kill you with horrible shooting lines every other night either.

    Corey Brewer (0.33) returned after missing three games, got the start in Danilo Gallinari absence and played 34 minutes, scoring 19 points and adding 5 boards. Brewer is a career 42% shooter and is not going to light the world on fire with his scoring, but he’ll probably be worth owning while Gallinari is out. I would at least give him a look in fantasy leagues.

    And I have to mention Tristan Thompson (0.20), who is currently available in 90% of Yahoo leagues at the moment. With Anderson Varejao out indefinitely with a fractured wrist (the preliminary timetable is 4-6 weeks – thanks stupid NBA season) Thompson becomes an intriguing speculation add.

    As I mentioned in the comments of yesterday’s post, his per-30 minute numbers look something like this: 11.5 points, 8.8 rebounds and 2 blocks. That alone is enough to make a lot of people stop reading and add him immediately. Unfortunately, he’s not likely ever to see that much time with Varejao sidelined. Thompson is still a raw player skills-wise and is only 6-9 and 227 pounds, so it’s unlikely that he sees a lot of time at center unless the Cavs want to go really, really small. In fact, the Cavs started Semih Erden (-0.79) last night at center against the Sixers despite the fact that he was in Byron Scott’s doghouse for some reason or another I forget. Erden did nothing in 14 minutes, while Thompson had 8 boards and 2 blocks in 19 minutes, so Thompson is clearly the guy to grab in that situation with the hope that he sees more minutes while Varejao is out.

    Biggest Loser: Another theme that’s been developing this season: It was a bad night to be a point guard. Again. Raymond Felton (-0.73) shot 4-17 from the field and finished with 9 points, 2 rebounds and 2 assists. Felton is shooting a painful 37% this season.

    Well, it was fun while it lasted, but Luke Ridnour (-0.49) should be losing his starting SG job any day now for the Wolves after he’s been putting up horrible lines night after night like this: 5 points and 1 assist on 2-7 from the field.

    On the positive side, Tyreke Evans (-0.46) did have 6 rebounds and 5 assists, but he complemented that with 4 turnovers and a 1-9 night from the field. Evans has really strung together some horrible shooting games lately, shooting 38% in the month of February.

    Finally, Brandon Jennings (-0.35) is in full freefall mode: His 7 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists against the Magic is not a disaster on the face of it, but the 3-14 shooting from the field is his 7th straight game of shooting 40% from the floor or less. Jennings should really stop thinking about his future and focus on actually playing basketball now.

    ***

    Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.

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    • 34thetruth

      My friend and I have been discussing a trade that I think is really close in value but I can’t quite decide on. Maybe you guys can help. I would be trading James Harden for Steve Nash. I have thought about counter offering Harden and Darren Collison for Nash and David West. What do you think of either of those deals?

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      I’d call a Harden/Nash trade about even money, which might be the reason you can’t decide on it. Harden has been slightly more valuable overall according to our rater, but Nash plays a premium position and is one of the best assist guys in the league. Adding in West and Collison works to even out the assists a little between the trade, but overall doesn’t tip the deal one way or another.

    • firstrow

      should i be worried about jjack’s injury? hornets have no hopes and they might just play vasquez at start after j jack comes back. Someone offered me marshon and pek for him. Im very tempted to do this since varejao just went down. Should I ?

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

       Sounds like Jack is out at least a week. I think you’re right that if Vasquez is playing well, then they have no reason to try to rush Jack back and no need to play him a lot when he does return.

      I would probably take MarShon and Pekovic for Jack even if he wasn’t injured. Pekovic is in the Top 50 on the Player Rater over the last week, while Jack is probably a Top 60 player at his best.

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

      For what it’s worth, I’ve dropped Ridnour. Putting my actions where Patrick’s mouth is.

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

       And I see that Patrick dropped Ridnour in the GMTR Dynasty league yesterday. He speaks the truth.

    • Jeremy

      Out of Gordon, Buddinger, and Neal, who would you drop for ilyasova? Obviously Gordon’s just come back so a lot of that may depend on how well he plays tonight, but I’d like to nab ily while he’s still out there

    • Juddy’s 3 votes

      have locked up playoff fantasy spot.
      JSmooth/GMonroe for Lebron/Thornton? I get the best player in Lebron – but worried giving too much for him. Monroe producing almost 1st round value the past 2 weeks. JSmooth is on a tear since finding out he’s not an AllStar.

      Lebron’s production seems to have decreased since Wade’s return. Thornton also plays 9 games over 2 weeks during the fantasy playoff weeks.

    • George

      Is it safe to drop Jerryd Bayless or does he have value?  If you were to rank J. Farmar, Illyasova, Chris Kaman, Gordon Heyward, Stephen Jackson, D. Harris, Corey Maggete, Iman Shumpert going forward, who do you feel would have a better GMTR rating going forward?     

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

      Regardless of what Gordon does, I’d say he’s the guy to drop. He’s a straight Points guys with probably a three and some barely there peripheral stats. Budinger and Neal won’t score as much as Gordon, but there’s at least a chance that they’ll give you more threes, rebounds, and assists.

    • Jdavidson712

      Im targeting small ball stats ans just traded javale mcgee and andre miller for tony parker ans al Harrington. My friend told me im an idiot for doing this. Was it a bad move? I feel like I asked this already but I don’t remember what you guys said. Thanks as always. I appreciate your incite.

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

       Congrats on having your playoff spot locked up! When do your playoffs start? Seems real early to know already…

      I’d take LeBron and Thornton. 9 games in 2 weeks is a pretty big advantage when you’re looking at Smith vs. Thornton. Greg Monroe is kind of on a ridiculous tear right now, and it seems like a good time to sell high on him. LeBron’s skillset is still something that you just can’t discount.

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

      Not sure how bad his injury is, but since he’s listed as day-to-day, I think you might as well drop him. I actually feel better about guys with a timetable this season (Zach Randolph, Brook Lopez) than those who could be back any day (Spencer Hawes, Derrick Rose, sort of).

      For the others, here’s my order:
      Ilyasova
      Hayward
      Maggette
      Shumpert
      Farmar
      Kaman
      Jackson
      Harris

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

       Your friend is an idiot. That is as even as a trade gets if you look across all categories and time periods (season, month, two weeks, last week). If you take out FG%, Rebounds and Blocks, then it’s a big win for you. You get gains in big gains in Points, Threes, FT% and modest gains in Assists and Steals and come out about even on TOs.

    • Anonymous

      Everyone avert your eyes, the Grizzlies are wearing their rec cen joiseys again tonight.

    • Anonymous

      Burn it down, big man.

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

      Very tempted to moderate this… 

    • Juddy’s 3 votes

      Thanks Nels – thanks to you guys, I haven’t lost a matchup this season yet. our league also decided on a ‘condensed’ season. so fantasy playoffs are weeks 13-15.

      Love ya work!! Regularly use the daily schedules which is a huge help!

    • Anonymous

      So a guy in my league is interested in moving rondo, except that he specifically wanted Varejao to be moved with him. Its a 14 team league so Varejao may have SOME value but not a ton. In my mind Rondo > Wall > Lawson and I’m thinking about moving Lawson + maybe Trevor Booker or Afflalo/Foye for Rondo + Varejao, what do you guys think? I’m not necessarily in need of assists (Lawson, Westbrook, Wall, and Lebron for assists) but I am in a position where I can wait for Varejao until playoffs if need be granted that I also have Eric Gordon right now and I want to pick up Wilson Chandler soon… haha seems a little complicating but any advice would be greatly appreciated, thanks GMTR writers! 

    • Bb

      Drop Baron Davis for Jr Smith? I need 3s, pts, stl, ast.

    • Jeff

      Would you rather have T. Young or Corey Maggette?

      T.Young is on the wires right now someone dropped him for Jerebko, which I thought was kind of stupid. But I’m trying to make a playoff push.

      12 team h2h 9 cat league

      Cp3Wall
      Derozan 
      Booker
      Joe Johnson
      Gooden
      Hibbert
      Nikola Pek
      Kemba
      Zbo
      MarShon Brooks
      Maggette

      I was thinking of dropping maggette for T.Young or maybe Kemba because I’m not sure how he’s going to play when Augistine comes back from his injury. Please let me know! Thanks so much! 

    • JLy

      10 team 10 cat h2h league daily changes

      I was wondering what you think about Z.Bo coming back? How do you think he will be doing in terms of production? Knowing that the Memphis game is more guard based now? What about J.R. Smith? where do you think he will fit in and if he is worth a good pick up or not? I’m really not feeling this whole wesley matthews, hoped that this year he would put up those crazy numbers like last year but it was a total bust.

      CurryGee
      Dudley
      WesleyMatthews 
      Joe JohnsonPau GasolAndrew Bynum
      Gooden
      John Wall
      Jamal Crawford
      Kris Humphries
      B. Lopez.Gordon HaywardHaving both Z.Bo and Brook! ha. Except I’m stuck a point where I’m not really sure who to drop and what I should do. Thanks for all your help I read the site everyday! YOU GUYS ARE AWESOME!

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Honestly, if you are not in need of assists, I would consider Lawson the better player at this point than Rondo (insane triple-doubles last night aside). Rondo has some pretty big weaknesses in fantasy – including a horrible FT% and 1 turnover a game more than Lawson. I could see if you were desperate for assists wanting Rondo, but in a 9-cat league (let me know if it’s not) with your team I’d rather have Lawson’s well-rounded game than have to work around Rondo’s weaknesses. 

      In terms of Varejao’s value, the way things have gone this season, I would expect him to miss at least 6 weeks with that injury, which would put him back on the court in the mid to end of March range, or 1-2 weeks before the start of a lot of fantasy playoffs (best case scenario). If your team is a juggernaut, then I could see sitting on him for 6 weeks in preparation for the playoffs – but 6 weeks is a really long time to sit on a guy. 

      I would not give up much for Varejao – Foye at the most – and I’d just as rather play hardball with the guy and he’ll probably drop him in a week if he can’t find a trade partner. 

      For what it’s worth, I’d also rather have Wilson Chandler than Varejao. Chandler will probably be back on the court a couple weeks before Varejao and will likely be the slightly better player of the two. 

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Yes! Davis is entirely droppable at this point. He’s still out indefinitely with no timetable and Linmania has slowed the need to get him back on the court. Smith is worth a stash at this point. His Chinese team is not going to make the playoffs, so he’s free to return to the NBA after 2/15. It’ll probably be a couple weeks of wait before he signs with a team and gets his contract worked out, but I’d expect he’s back on the court by the beginning of March. 

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Regarding Z-Bo, a minor ray of hope can be found on Commercial Appeal http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2012/feb/08/grizzlies-end-3-game-skid-beat-timberwolves-85-80/ where it’s thrown out that he might be slightly ahead of schedule. He’s shooting right now and expected to start non-contact drill this week, but is probably at least a couple weeks away still from returning.

      While Marreese Speights and Dante Cunningham have been doing about as well as could be expected filling in his is absence, I am sure the Grizzlies are excited to get him back and on the court. Like any major injury of this type, I’d expect his minutes to be limited the first week or two as he gets back into game shape. But I don’t see why come fantasy playoff time, he’s not close to the Randolph that we saw last season. I’m encouraged by his news.

      In general, J.R. Smith is worth a stash at this point. His Chinese team is not going to make the playoffs, so he’s free to return to the NBA after 2/15. It’ll probably be a couple weeks of wait before he signs with a team and gets his contract worked out, but I’d expect he’s back on the court by the beginning of March. I really have no clue where he’ll sign, but even worst case he’s going to side into a 6th man role and be really nice scorer/threes/steals guys.Still, I’d rather have Brook and Randolph than Smith and I’m not sure you can afford to stash another for 2-3 weeks. But if you want to take the risk, I guess Gee or Matthews would be the drop, right?

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      I’d rather have Young personally. Maggette’s big strength at this point in his career is getting to the FT line, which is nice, but Young is going to give you lot more than that.