Give Me The Rock » Blog Archive » Day 53 of 124: GUSTAVO!

Give Me The Rock

this is fantasy basketball 
  • GMTR Sponsors


    Play a variety of free slot machines online or visit VPR for information on video poker games and where to play securely.

    Shop residential adjustable basketball hoops at Sports Unlimited.

    fantasypa
  • Fantasy Sports

    Get This or Add Your Feed <a href="http://fantasyknuckleheads.com" title="Fantasy Football Rankings, Fantasy Football Sleepers, Fantasy football start sit, fantasy football waiver wire."><b>Fantasy Football for all you knuckleheads</b></a>

    Powered By: Fantasy Knuckleheads


  • Day 53 of 124: GUSTAVO!

    Author Icon for Patrick

    Categorized as: Author: Patrick, Ballin Outta Control, Injuries, Player News
    Posted on: February 16th, 2012

    Line of the Night: The Phoenix Suns shut down Joe Johnson (2-10 shooting on the night), but they couldn’t touch Josh Smith (3.35), who took over the game and finished with 30 points, 17 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 steals and 3 blocks while playing close to 45 minutes in a 101-99 win. Coach Larry Drew has been riding Smith hard this month – he’s had two other games of 46+ minutes in the past week – which is great if you like insane fantasy lines, as long as Smith doesn’t seriously start to wear down as the season rolls on.

    Honorable Mentions: Kevin Martin (2.52) owners can exhale now. A game after being held scoreless and playing all of 19 minutes before getting benched, Martin exploded for 32 points, hitting 4-7 from three and adding 2 steals against the OKC. Credit Kevin McHale’s heart-to-heart with Martin before the game I guess. If you happen own Martin and are looking to get rid of him before his confidence disappears again, I’d either start to look at offers now, or wait until he has a second good game in a row and then look to move him (so it doesn’t look so obvious).

    ***

    Just too many games today for me to recap them all, but…

    26 points, 11 assists and 4 threes for Deron Williams (2.36) in a loss to the Grizzlies. William’s FG% has slowed crept back up over 41%, which is not great, but at least not an embarrassment anymore. Mike Conley (2.09) had a nice 16 point, 10 assist, 4 steal double-double for the Grizzlies.

    Ryan Anderson (2.31) scored 27 points while hitting 7 threes for the Magic in their win over the Sixers. It would have been great if he could have grabbed more than 2 rebounds though (don’t go all Andrea Bargnani on us). Jameer Nelson (0.99) scored 12 points, but put up a season-high 14 assists in the game. Nelson is playing much better over the last week since coming back from injury. The Sixers were yet again fantasy led by Louis Williams (1.60), who finished with 21 points and 7 assists off the bench. The Sixers’ starters combined to go 16-42 in this game.

    Gerald Wallace (2.02) scored 24 points and hit 4 threes, with 6 rebounds and 2 steals in a win over the Warriors (thanks to some Jamal Crawford free throws). Both Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry were off in this one, but David Lee had 29 and 11 in the game.

    Kevin Love (1.96) had a huge 30 points and 18 rebounds against the Bobcats. But if it’s not 30 and 20, we don’t want to hear about it. Nikola Pekovic (1.09) also chipped in 21 and 11 with 3 blocks. For the Bobcats, it’s Diaw time again! Boris Diaw (1.04) had a 14, 9 and 7 and played 38 minutes in this game. Ride him like he’s Josh Smith right now. D.J. Augustin (-0.42) returned to the lineup after missing 11 games and landed with a thud, scoring 9 points with 2 assists in 24 minutes. But hey, he’s back, so time to get him back into your lineups.

    Tony Parker (1.94) is still enjoying his time on the court as Manu Ginobili works his way back into game shape. Against the Raptors, Parker scored 34 points – going 12-12 from the line – and adding 14 assists. And in case you didn’t see, Manu Ginobili (0.03) is back on the court for the Spurs! It was a long wait, but congratulations for all those Manu owners out there. The team is working him back slowly, though, as he only played 20 minutes in his third game back and finished with 11 points in the game.

    Another guy who is apparently back to his old ways is Jason Kidd (1.93). Kidd had a scoring explosion (for him) with 13 points, adding 4 threes and 3 steals in a win over the Nuggets.

    No KG? No problem for Rajon Rondo (1.60), who scored a huge 35 points, adding 5 boards and 6 assists against the Pistons. It was a problem for the Celtics as a team, as they lost the game 98-88. Ben Gordon (1.47) scored 22 points and hit 4 threes off the bench for the Pistons.

    Blake Griffin (1.27) had a 23 and 15 in a win over the Wizards. Chris Paul (0.91) added 16 points and 9 assists, while is counterpart John Wall (0.88) led the Wiz with 18 points and 12 assists.

    It’s hard to believe that Steve Nash is 38 years old, especially when he keeps putting up lines like this: 22 points and 16 assists against the Hawks. It’s his 8th double-digit assist game in the month of February. I’m 32 and I just hurt my ankle lightly working out at the gym for like 30 minutes yesterday. Nash is a freak.

    And, finally, it wouldn’t be a fantasy recap without a Jeremy Lin (0.15) update. Lin’s scoring slowed down last night against the Kings as he only played 26 minutes in a blowout win, but he did manage a career-high 13 assists to go along with 10 points before exiting the game for good in the third quarter. Landry Fields (1.41) added a 15, 10 and 5 in the game.

    Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Thanks to the Eric Gordon injury, Marco Belinelli (2.07) was handed the Hornets starting SG position this year on a silver platter. He then took that platter and crapped all over it, with one of the worst runs of shooting at the start of the season this side of Jason Kidd.

    Is he turning it around? His recent game log would suggest no, but last night he hit career-high 6 threes on his way to a season-high 22 points, going 7-10 from the field overall. Belinelli is getting well over 30 minutes a game while Jarrett Jack is out, and the Hornets actually play a back-to-back-to-back starting on Monday before the break, so he could be worth a look if you are trying to squeeze out some extra games as long as you are willing to take the chance that he might destroy you with a 5-30 shooting week.

    Pick Up Lines: Marreese Speights (2.00) Sigh… You want the definition of a bad girlfriend? See Speights, Marreese. Lionel Hollins ran with all his starters (including Speights) more than usual last night in a win over the Nets. The result was a season high 38 minutes for Speights which led to a season-high 20 points (on 10-13 shooting from the field), career-high 18 rebounds and 2 blocked shots. Should you run out and grab him if he’s available? Only if you feel like getting burned the next time the Grizzlies play. Ok, in reality his minutes have been creeping up lately into the 28-30 minute range and while the dude is inconsistent as any player in the league, he is worth a look if you’re desperate for a big man. The boards should at least be there for him even when his shot isn’t falling.

    And you can check out those horrific grizzlies uni’s below…

    GUSTAVO! Gustavo Ayon (1.43) got his 5th straight start at PF for the Hornets and tore it up with his first double-double: 12 points, 12 rebounds and 3 steals. With Emeka Okafor now out with a knee injury until after the all-star break, Ayon becomes a short-term must add in all 12+ team leagues, especially seeing that the Hornets play three games during next week’s all-star game shortened week.

    Willie Green (1.87) somehow got 34 minutes off the bench for the Hawks, hit 4-6 from three and finished with 20 points and 3 steals. That was a season high in minutes for Green and I’d suggest waiting for a repeat performance before thinking about picking him up.

    With Kyrie Irving back in the lineup, Ramon Sessions (1.38) moved back to the bench. But that didn’t stop him from seeing nearly 30 minutes and finishing with 13 points, 4 assists and 2 steals against the Pacers. As long as you don’t expect any more huge double-doubles from Sessions, he could be a sneaky good play for now, especially if Daniel Gibson is forced to miss time with a sprained ankle.

    Ersan Ilyasova’s ownership levels (40% in Yahoo leagues) is creeping up to the point where he’s no longer really a waiver wire guy, but if he is available in your league, then take a look after his 23 point, 7 rebound, 2 block game against the Hornets. His lines still bounce around more than I’d like, but it’s not like guys averaging 8 rebounds a game are usually hanging out as free agents in 60% of leagues out there.

    Shelden Williams (1.03) got the start for the Nets at center, played 36 minutes and doubled-doubled with 10 points, 12 rebounds and three blocked shots. The problem is that line matches his production from his previous three games combined.

    Jose Barea (1.00) has been able to carve out a nice 25 minute a game role for himself off the Timberwolves’ bench behind Ricky Rubio. He had a 12 point, 8 assist, 2 three game against the Bobcats and is worth a look in deep leagues.

    He’s been mentioned on GMTR before, but Kosta Koufos (0.94) is still available in over 90% of leagues and is starting at center for Denver while Timofey Mozgov (day-to-day with an ankle injury) is out. Koufos had a nice 12 and 14 double-double against Dallas last night and makes a decent short-term pickup if you need a center.

    Speaking of centers, Semih Erden (0.82) scored a career high 18 points with 8 boards in his second start for the Anderson Varejao-less Cavs. Considering he went scoreless in his first start, I’d cut the difference and consider him a low end Zaza Pachulia type (at best) while Varejao is out. At least he’ll be a warm body at center if you play in a really deep league.

    With no KG or Brandon Bass for the Celtics, Chris Wilcox (0.82) got the start against Detroit and stepped up with 17 and 9 in 32 minutes. Wilcox has shown in the past he can put up decent fantasy numbers when getting the minutes, but his value only lasts as long as KG is out (maybe until after the all-star break).

    Beep… beep… beep… that’s the faint heartbeat of Chandler Parsons’ (0.51) fantasy value. Last night’s 14 points, 7 rebounds and a couple steals against OKC was arguably his best game in the month of February. It’s going to be touch and go with Parsons the rest of the season.

    It’s looking like Corey Brewer (0.29) is going to be the Nuggets starting SF while Danilo Gallinari is out (sorry Rudy Fernandez fans). His 3-15 shooting night against Dallas doesn’t exactly inspire confidence, but he did grab 7 boards and add 5 steals in the game. He’s more of a defensive guy than a scorer, but at 30+ minutes a game, he’ll do enough to be worth owning.

    Biggest Loser: Just when we all started to trust Arron Afflalo (-1.59) again, he burns us with a 3 point (on 0-6 shooting), 1 rebound, 0 assist night against Dallas. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me for the tenth time this year, well, I’ve got a problem. Given the 20+ point games he was having leading up to this one, I’d actually give him at least one more chance before dumping his ass back to the wire.

    The Nuggets’ shooting woes weren’t contained to Afflalo. Andre Miller (-1.13) has gone about as cold as you can get over the last week, and his 0 points on 0-5 shooting is sadly not that out of line with what he’s been doing lately. Miller hasn’t scored in double-digits since Feb 8th and I’m not sure how much longer fantasy owners should put up with his cold streak.

    Ty Lawson (-1.00) had 3 points, 2 rebounds and 2 assists while shooting 1-8 from the field. And as mentioned above, Corey Brewer was 3-15 from the floor. It’s amazing that Denver only lost by a score of 104-82.

    ***

    Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.

    Do not miss a day of the Fantasy NBA. Subscribe to Give Me The Rock RSS Feed right now. You can also get bonus (and easily digestible) content by following GMTR on Twitter, or become a fan of GMTR on Facebook! We are so social!

    If you like what you read here, come back every day for new content! And if you come back every day, please consider donating…

    Other Stuff Like This:

    Tags: , , , , , , , ,

    • http://twitter.com/conradburry Conrad Burry

      Avg-based points league (all stats = 1pt, asts = 2pts, TOs = -1pt). I’m gettin impatient with Dudley. Who of T. Allen, Morrow, Ayon, Frye, G. Hill, Fields, and JRich are better for the long term? Or do I gut it out with Duds?

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Richardson probably has the best chance to be consistently good given your league setup. I still have a soft spot in my heart for Channing Frye and Tony Allen, however. 

    • Rdevinhughes

      I’ve been offered Wesley Matthews & Jeff Teague for Jeremy Lin. I’m in the camp that I should look for opps to sell high on Lin–what do you think of this trade?

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      If you are the owner of Lin, I’d definitely keep him if that’s the offer. While I think Lin fever has inflated his fantasy value over what it ought to be, when it comes down to it, he’s still going to be the starting PG for the D’Antoini Knicks – so long term something like 15 points and 7-8 assists with some good steal numbers is a reasonable expectation and is better than both what Matthews and Teague are going to give you.

    • JJ

      Time to cut ties with Trevor Booker?  I know I’m overreacting after a few bad games, but it’s annoying watching Nick Young and John Wall put up over 30 shots while Booker gets 4.  I’m not in a very deep league (10 teams, 13 spot rosters, daily changes), so I feel like I should grab someone else who’s hot (possibly Koufos for some spot blocks?)  Thanks for all your work here, great resource for fantasy pros and noobs.

    • JJ

      Also, sorry for all the questions, but if you had to give up Marshon Brooks or Jared Dudley in a trade, who would it be.  My concerns with Dudley are inconsistency, while concerns with Brooks hinge on whether Lopez coming back would hurt his production.

    • Chris

      Drop Andre Miller for Ramon Sessions?

    • GMWannabe

      I have a lot of PG, so somebody offered me Elton Brand for my Jrue Holiday. Alternatively, I could counter him Tyreke Evans for Jrue Holiday. Do you like either of these deals? One over the other? I just lost Varejao so the slight spike in rebounds I’d get in either deal helps. 

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      I dropped Booker in the 12-team league I had him in yesterday. When it comes to marginal fantasy guys like Booker, I find it’s better to have a short leach with them and try to ride the hot hand at any given moment (aka Koufos) rather than ride it out for a guy like Booker who has a pretty low fantasy ceiling. 

    • Cortez

      Already got an offer voted down because of Lin Haters.. this sucks.

      However Im basically trying to get a Mellow for Lin (with some scrubs added in)..

      Hope it can happen because I have Ben Gordon,Cpaul,Jwall as my PG so I do not really need Lin. 

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Interestingly enough, Brand is currently ranked #84 on our player rater and Holiday #85, so it’s about as even value as you can get in a trade. That being said, Brand is a bigger injury risk being older and hasn’t played that well lately, so I’d probably rather have Holiday. Evans is ranked #67 on our rater and would be the better deal for you. Despite his ups and downs this year, I’d make an Evans for Holiday trade.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      I like Sessions, but he had a perfect shooting game last night. Long term, Miller still has the higher ceiling of the two off the bench and I’d probably give him a couple more games to try to break out of that funk. 

    • http://twitter.com/okomodo Johan K

      Hey Guys,

      I’m in an ESPN 12-teams HxH 8-Cat Daily league. I could use help in RBDs, BLKs, STLs, and ASTs. I am trying to shop Scola and/or DeRozan around, which player(s) to target for a fair trade? Thanks in advance!

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Good luck! As Erik and I talked about on our last podcast, the veto by league vote is one of the more abused and unfortunate aspects of the game. Give me a knowledgeable commissioner any day of the week.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Both? Haha. Honestly, I’m really not a believer in either of them at this point. Dudley is too inconsistent for my tastes and Brooks’ both has injury issues and the return of Lopez. If you forced me to choose, though, I’d probably trade Dudley first. 

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Scola has been almost comically bad this season – hanging out around #200 on our rater YTD and #180 in the month of February – as a big man who averages less than 6 rebounds a game and doesn’t block shots, get steals or assists. Technically he shouldn’t even be owned in a 12 man league and if you can find someone to take him, it’s solely going to be on name value. 

      DeRozen started off the season just as badly, but he is playing well lately with a few 20+ scoring games this month. He’s still hanging out around #140 on our rater in Feb (mostly because he doesn’t do too much else other than get points), but I think you could set your target a little higher than that with him.

      Jason Kidd probably would have been a nice get for you while he was injured, but now he’s probably playing too well for you to get for DeRozen. You could try buying low on Andre Miller while he’s in a slump (assists/steals) or even Elton Brand (probably a stretch).

    • http://twitter.com/conradburry Conrad Burry

      Avg-based points league (all stats = 1pt, asts = 2pts, TOs = -1pt). Would u trade Kyrie and Gooden for Lin? If not, the Lin owner also has Ayon, Caron, Batum and Scola. Maybe a 2-for-2 he would think fair?

    • Kalergis

      1 pt for everything league.  -1 for missed shot, TO.  Been offered Jeff Teague and Marcus Thorton for Brandon Knight and Deng.  I think I like it……  Deng has been playing fine with that wrist, but he his injured, and Knight has been all over the place.  Thoughts?  GMTR rules!

    • Gunsm0k3_3

      I just got offered rubio and thorton for CP3 and Gooden. I’m in a standard 9 cat H2H league. Seems like a lateral move to me but I’m not entirely sure.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

       Frye/JRich – swapping either for Dudley would be alright. I prefer them over him anyway.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

       I’d keep Miller. I think the Sessions to the Lakers ideas have died downed, and that was the main source of his upside. Andre is getting less touches with Lawson back @ 100% but he should still be more consistent overall.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

       Marcus Camby. I know it’s scary, but he’s the guy who fits the bill of your needs.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

       See if he’d be willing to add either Batum or Butler. It is asking a lot, but reach out in the offer that it is a starting point, it’s negotiable, and you just wanted to touch base and get communication lines open.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

       It’s not lateral in the sense that you lose PTS, REB while gain 3s and STL. If those are your needs, I’d consider it. If not, then keep CP3 and Gooden as they should do relatively well moving forward.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

       Seems balanced overall. You downgrade Deng with Thornton, but Teague is a good upgrade to Knight. He is clearly after Deng’s very low-TO to high production ratio in this deal. If you don’t mind Thornton’s occasionally poor shooting nights, it’s workable, as you net some STLs  in the trade.

    • Mike

      This absolutely floored me.  LMFAO!  

      “Marco Belinelli (2.07) was handed the Hornets starting SG position this year on a silver platter. He then took that platter and crapped all over it, with one of the worst runs of shooting at the start of the season this side of Jason Kidd.”

    • AR55

      Hey guys! Is it worth dropping either Jodie Meeks or James Johnson for Gustavo Ayon? I’m in need of a big, with Emeka out and now Varejao missing 4-6 weeks!

    • Kalergis

      Thanks Erik.  Totally agree.  Just pulled the trigger on it, but wanted to review with you guys first.  Your site is seriously one of the best out there and my personal favorite.  It keeps me a step ahead in my league and reading your posts everyday since the beginning of the season has really boosted my basketball IQ.  Keep up the good work and thanks again GTMR.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

       I like Ayon moving forward. Opportunities are abound especially with the Kaman buy-out rumors floating. Ayon is a candidate for becoming a second-half (of the season) gem.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      He’s probably going to get squeezed again for minutes once Okafor and Jason Smith get back in the lineup, but until then he’ll make a really nice add, especially if you own Okafor. I’d drop either of those guys for a short run with Ayon. And like Erik said, if Kaman gets moved, he could have the opportunity to break out in the second half. 

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

       Thanks for the kind words. The three of us just simply enjoy discussing fantasy hoops and sharing the insights we’ve learned throughout the years.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Paul has been the third best player in the league YTD according to the GMTR player rater. I’d keep him unless you got an offer that really blew you away. Which this does not.

    • Aku218

      hey guys I’m need of some advice in a potential trade.

      13 cats  10 team
      pts, fgm, fg%, ftm, ft%, 3ptm, 3pt%, oreb, reb, assists, steals, blocks, TO

      my jrich, gooden, and dalembert for his lamarcus, scola, and haywood

      jrich is on fire right now and although can definitely keep the treys coming idk if it will be ~3.
      the way I see it I would upgrade gooden to LA, downgrade/break even with scola, and pick up bellineli or a WW swing man down the line for jrich.

      the thing is I’d definitely lose depth because gooden gives me ~1 block and an occasional three and dalembert is my only real 1+ shot blocker even tho hes been in a bad slump.

      I definitely lose some threes by replacing jrich with an average swingman, and i’d be very weak at blocks. so far ive been winning my weeks (seed 3) with andrea out and stashing lopez when his owner dropped him so im not really in a dire situation, just want to secure a championship.

      also, portland only plays 5 playoff games in the last two weeks which is a bummer. jrich, gooden, and dalembert play 6.  however i would be upgrading for an elite player in LA (top 10) with the stats i play and allows me to play with one spot on my roster. any suggestions?

      -my team-
      CP3
      Kemba
      Ty Lawson
      Andre Iggy
      Rudy Gay
      Bargnani
      Brook Lopez
      Jason Kidd
      Gooden
      Dalembert
      Splitter
      Brandon Jennings
      Bosh
      Dorell Wright

    • Aku218

       gooden has a sprained wrist apparently.. going to shop him to avoid any risks

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      It’s actually not a bad trade for you, most due to how good Aldridge has been this season. Conservatively, the trade with the players listed, I’ve got you gaining 4-7 points a game (depending how good Richardson is the rest of the year), about 3 boards, 1 block and you shed 1 TO per game. If you are planning on dropping Haywood, the boards and blocks gain will disappear (although you’ll obviously gain in other areas).

      Assists, steals and percentages in this trade are about even. The one downside is that you do lose somewhere between 2-3 threes per game. You’ll be hard pressed to get that all back on the wire, but you could get 50-75%  of it back, plus get LA.

      So, I think it’s a good trade even with a healthy Gooden. And if he turns out to be more injured than we think, it could end up being a steal for you. 

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Whoops, had my signs mixed up. You’ll actually lose a block a game with the trade, not gain a block. Still, I think it’s a net positive trade for you on the whole. 

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Thanks Mike! Sometime’s it tough to get the brain moving at 5 in the morning, but for some reason that one came to me right away. I guess it’s how I really feel about Belinelli, haha.