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  • Day 57 of 124: When the Thunder Goes BOOM!

    Author Icon for Erik

    Categorized as: Author: Erik, Fantasy Basketball, Oklahoma City Thunder
    Posted on: February 20th, 2012

    The Oklahoma City Thunder is a legitimate threat to take the Western Conference Finals this season. The sheer explosive power brought to the table by their stars is something that the rest of the NBA cannot ignore. In the Thunder’s overtime victory over the Denver Nuggets, we caught a glimpse of what happens when three of its four cylinders go into overdrive.

    Line of the Night: Of course the Thunder was led by its best player, Kevin Durant (3.77), who blew up for 51 points via an efficient 19-28 from the field which included five treys. He rounded out the line with eight boards and four steals. As of this post, Durant is now tied with LeBron James on GMTR’s player rater at 1.27 “WARP-to-date”. With Dwyane Wade now healthy and taking on some of the work James had to do early in the season while he (Wade) was out due to various injuries, expect Durant to eventually pull away, game by game.

    Honorable Mentions:

    Kyle Lowry (3.55) snuck into the second spot for the night off as he torched the Utah Jazz and simply couldn’t be stopped. His shots just kept on falling (9-13 from the field and 7-7 from the line). He finished the night with 32 markers, including seven threes. But it was not all about him hogging the ball and taking control; as he also distributed the ball well with nine dimes.

    Alright with that Lowry-interlude out of the way, we can get back to more Thunder players. Russell Westbrook (2.92) was more than an impressive foil to Durant. He was legitimate co-threat himself! It’s a real headache for their opponents. You can’t stop Durant. And if anyone does try, then Westbrook can drop 40 points on your team. And he doesn’t just burn you that way, as exemplified by the addition of nine assists and three bombs from downtown to his line.

    Thunder starting center Kendrick Perkins was playing through a knee injury, but the Thunder opted to lean on Serge Ibaka (2.90) who played 40 minutes in the overtime win. Ibaka responded with an eye-popping triple-double line with 14 points (6-7 from the field), 15 rebounds, and 11 blocks. Boom! Ibaka has been so dominant lately, that he’s allowed my small-ball team in a deep league win the blocks category. Virtually by himself! My team finished the week with 36 blocks. Out of those 36 rejections, Ibaka contributed 23 to my team’s cause. I’m now officially ecstatic that I didn’t fall prey to the temptation to trade him at a loss during the early going of the season.

    Ersan Ilyasova (2.74) had his best line for the season, arguably for his career with huge double-double. He had 29 points and 25 rebounds for the night and rounded out his line with a steal, a block and two treys.  Ilyasova is projected to do well moving forward. After last night’s performance, however, his stock price has just gotten a big upward bump.

    Oh yeah, there’s some forward from the Miami Heat who did well too. His name is LeBron James (2.52) and from what I hear, he’s pretty popular in this thing called fantasy basketball. James was two assists shy of a triple-double. He went for 25-11-8 with two steals just to give his owners a little something extra to smile about.

    Interestingly enough, if you’re playing in an 8-cat league (without turnovers), then Jeremy Lin (2.40) was actually the third-best player for the night. He once again led his, HIS (did you read that, Mr. Anthony?) Knicks to victory with 28 points, 14 assists, and five steals. For 9-cat leagues however Lin’s owners will have to settle for him having the seventh best performance. Not bad considering he committed seven turnovers versus the defending Champions, Dallas Mavericks. When it comes to Jeremy Lin and fantasy basketball, most owners have learned to take the bad along with the awesome.

    ***

    Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Isaiah Thomas (2.28) had his second start of the season for the Sacramento Kings in their recently effective three-guard assault configuration, where he, Tyreke Evans and Marcus Thornton all start and attempt to dazzle their opponents with offense. Thomas had a very good night running the offense at the point for the Kings with 23 points, eight boards, and 11 assists. He also added three treys to round out his great performance. From what I hear, fantasy hoops geniuses are tweeting add recommendations for Thomas. At only 5’9″, this Nate Robinson-like dynamo may encounter some defensive concerns every now and again, but should remain fantasy-viable as long as he can keep the Kings’ offense well-oiled and running.

    Pick Up Lines: Steve Novak (1.35) probably had his “last hoorah game” for his owners (for now at least) as Carmelo Anthony is expected back in action soon enough. Novak nailed four three-bombs and 14 points. Don’t bother adding him, even as streaming fodder come post-all-star-break. (5% owned)

    Jermaine O’Neal (1.17) had a rarely seen (nowadays) productive outing for the Celtics as he was finally able to decently anchor their in-paint defense with five blocked shots and eleven boards. It should be noted that Kevin Garnett was a DNP for the night and J-O only had Chris Wilcox to share the paint with. (4% owned)
    Patrick’s a tad worried about his consistency, but I recently added Tristan Thompson (1.12) in my 16-man H2H league after he went for 15 and 12 while adding three blocks. Let’s put it this way, I trust his upside and potential almost as much as I can expect Semih Erden to wind up disappointing enough for Tris-Thom to steal away some quality playing time. I’d say he’s a deep-league add for now and a watch list candidate in standard-sized leagues. (9% owned)

    Chris Andersen (1.01) is officially on the Nuggets’ trading block and (if you get lucky) might end up in a team where he can wind up as a better contributor for fantasy. I’d only speculate on him in very, very deep leagues for now. But with guys like Thompson, Ayon and  Biyombo, I’d say you can have the luxury of waiting on what comes next for this shot-blocking specialist. He chipped in 11 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 blocks in Denver’s losing effort versus the Thunder. (6% owned)

    Biggest Loser:

    Hedo Turkoglu (-1.24) was atrocious for his owners, on a critical Sunday game at that. He had one point and three assists to his name and went o-4 from the field. Awful. Simply awful! Expect the Magic to want to offload him and his lack of productivity if ever they get a sign-and-trade deal done for Dwight Howard.

    Corey Maggette (-1.00) killed his owners’ chances at winning FG% for the week as he missed 10 of his 14 shot attempts from the field to finish with  10 points and two rebounds.

    Boris Diaw (-1.00) also was terrible as he was shutdown last night and only managed 4 assists to go along with 4 turnovers.

    ***

    Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.

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    • Chris


       Isaiah Thomas (2.28) had his second start of the season for the Sacramento Kings in their recently effective three-guard assault configuration, where he, Tyreke Evans and Marcus Thornton all start and attempt to dazzle their opponents with offense.”

      I don’t know why but this sentence literally made me laugh out loud.

    • http://twitter.com/conradburry Conrad Burry

      Avg-based points league (asts = 2pts, other stats = 1pt, TOs = -1pt). Weekly-lineup I need to set by tonight: Start I. Thomas, Teague, or P. George? Thx!

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      The question is, are three games from Teague better than 2 games from George? (I like Thomas, but I’d rather start George for now). And the answer most likely is yes. Although he’s been up and down lately, go with the number of games and start Teague. 

    • http://twitter.com/conradburry Conrad Burry

      “Avg-based” means # of games don’t matter. Just need to have best avg production from the games played…

    • S_854

      I’ve got Lawson and Parker as PGs. Jack’s been stuck on the bench last few weeks & now the good Isaiah Thomas just had a breakout game (??). I missed on adding Lin after his great game because I didn’t want to drop anyone I had at the time, either. Am sorely tempted to drop Jack this time around with General Greivous nippin’ at him besides the health concerns.

      My other three bench guys are Z-Bo, Wilson Chandler, and Ilya so no give there.

      Thoughts?

    • LetsGetTropical

      Out on holiday last week w/ limited internet access, good to be back.  Would you prefer Isaiah to someone like Kevin Martin who’s been literally all over the map this year?  This is more of a weekly start vs. roster question as I’m not besotted w/ enough mai tais to actually drop K-Mart.  Also, what’s your sage advice re: starting Jack vs. Grievous for the short-week?  Would you be so bold as to start both?

    • Philosurfer3

      Apparently Z.Bo is targeting a March 7th return date. Is it time to pick him up after this short week? Or should I wait longer? Also, I haven’t been too good in assists, is Isaiah Thomas worth picking up for anyone on my team?

      I’m in an 8-team H2H yahoo league. I’m currently in a 3-way tie for 2nd place. Here’s the rest of my team:

      Westbrook, Richardson, Lawson, R.Gay, Kaman, K.Love, B.Lopez, Pekovic, B.Jennings, J.Jack, Gallinari, Bosh, & J.Holiday.

      I appreciate the help!

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Wow, I’ve never played in a league like that. Sorry for the misinformed advice then, I’d go with George, who has two fairly good matchups against the Hornets and Bobcats. 

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Tough one man. Sounds like Keith Smart is going to stick with Thomas at the point for now because, as we all know, Tyreke Evans is no point guard. So far in two starts he’s averaged 18 points, 7.5 assists, 6 rebounds and 2 threes, which is basically “run out and grab him asap” type numbers. But would I drop Jack for him? I’m going to go out on a limb and say no. 

      I’d highly suspect that Jack gets his starting job back when he’s ready. There are still plenty of minutes for Greivous off the bench on that shallow Hornets’ team, so I’m not too worried about those to co-existing together. Thomas has been a much needed energy boost for that Kings’ team, but I’d guess his almost triple-double is more fluke than anything. Evans had a particularly horrible game against the Cavs. Plus it was the Cavs, so we’ve got to knock off some degree of difficulty points there. I’d certainly like to have Thomas on my team, but I would hesitate to drop Jack for him.

    • logbi77

      You think Anderson Varejao will still be a double-double machine when he comes back next month?

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Welcome back! I hope that if you were someplace where internet access doesn’t really exist, it was indeed someplace tropical. 

      I’d need to see a few more games out of Thomas before I’d declare him as starter material over K-Mart (as all over the place as he’s been lately). But if he’s really as good as he’s shown over the past couple of games, I could definitely see a situation where I’d start him over Martin if his # of games played that week or matchups were particularly favorable. Or if I knew I was going to need assists. 

      I did actually start Grievous in one weekly H2H league this week, simply because the Hornets have three games. I’d do the same with Jack. Even if they throw a dud out in one of those games, you’ll still be up at the end of the week thanks to the extra games. Just hope neither has two or three bad games in them…

    • http://twitter.com/conradburry Conrad Burry

      will do. thats the only kind of league i play in. that way, ur not worrying about the arbitrary # of games played, and you’re focusing on playing the most-talented players every week. seems more true to life, imo.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      If you grab Z-Bo after this weeks’ worth of games, it means you’ll basically have to wait 2 weeks for him to get back on the court. Even in an 8-team league, I would definitely grab him and sit it out for that two weeks, especially since you’re near top of your league at the moment.

      Thomas is a tougher decision. After the Lin explosion, we’ve got to take every guy who explodes out of no where seriously. It’d be mostly a speculation play at this point – grab him and hope last night’s line is for real. It looks like he is going to remain the teams starting PG, so I could see it being worth the risk if you have someone you’re not afraid to drop. J-Rich might be that guy since he’s day-to-day with chest pains before yesterday’s game.

      In a shallow league like yours if it doesn’t work out with Thomas, you should be able to drop him quickly and grab someone else pretty good off the wire. 

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      I do. Fortunately, he’s not a longer range shooter, so that fractured wrist should have minimal effect on his ability to score around the rim. The biggest concern I’d have is his likelihood that he reinjures himself once he gets back, since the dude is always flopping all over the court (no offense Varejao).

    • Philosurfer3

       Thanks for the advice. I think i’ll test out Thomas if I can. Also, who do you think I should drop for Z-bo. Would Kaman be the one to drop?

    • Mike

      Ok guys…I put D-rose, Steph Curry, R rubio, J Lin on the trade block to try and not diminish 1 particular players trade value and it kind of worked…..

      The I was offers that have me torn, 1 – Rubio for James Harden, 2 – Rubio for Ryan Anderson.  Please help me decide the right one.  10 team, H2h, Daily, 15 man + 1 IRD-roseSteph CurryRubioJ lin B knightWilson Chandler G Vazquez GalloEric Gordon (IR) Illysova Josh Smith Antawn Jamison Tristian Thompson (Weekly roster for Tuesday game) Amare Marcin Gortat Matt Bonner (Weekly roster guy)
      Could definitely use your guys expertise…Thanks as always!! 

    • Mike

      that was my team that is all mashed together :)
       
       D-rose, Steph Curry, Rubio, J lin,  B knight, Wilson Chandler, G Vazquez, Gallo, Eric Gordon (IR), Illysova, Josh Smith, Antawn Jamison Tristian Thompson (trender), Amare Marcin Gortat, Matt Bonner (trender)

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

       I like that format. It sound good. Where is it hosted?

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

       There was no other way for me to describe what the heck they’re trying to do out there! It’s not like they’re trying to generate transition offense via a tight-clamped full-court press. Ha ha!

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

       I like Ryan Anderson. As we mentioned in the podcast, he’s 10th overall. He fits your team in the sense that he, Curry, Gallo (once back) make u a threat to win the 3PTM cat every week moving forward. You have enough PGs to remain competitive in AST even with out Rubio.

    • S_854

      ^ Thx for the analysis, Patrick. I stepped away from the ledge. Why is the unknown more sexy than what you mostly know? Damned potential…..

      I got lucky streaming in Shelden Williams for his boards last week to win 7-2 and because this week is really 2 weeks, I can afford to just hold on tight and wait for ZBo and Chandler to join the 2012 season.

      54-19 after 8 weeks, a lot of it thanks to GMTR. Very grateful for the help so far!

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Wow, 53-19. I think I’m going to start asking you advice for my fantasy teams. 

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Yeah, it’s a tough drop, but Kaman would be the guy to drop for Randolph.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Comparing your team to the average team in your league (assuming all your players are healthy), this the percentage better or worse you are on a weekly basis compared to league average. Note I am using the 2011-12 YTD stats with some adjustments for recent play over the last week or two. 

      pts 5%
      reb 6%
      ast 22%
      stl 8%
      blk 18%
      to -17%
      3pm 9%
      fgp 0%
      ftp -4%

      So what this is saying, your team is 5% better in points than the average team in your league. And here is what you’d look like swapping Rubio for Ryan Anderson

      pts 8%
      reb 10%
      ast 5%
      stl -2%
      blk 18%
      to -7%
      3pm 26%
      fgp 1%
      ftp -4%

      And with James Harden

      pts 8%
      reb 6%
      ast 11%
      stl -2%
      blk 18%
      to -12%
      3pm 17%
      fgp 1%
      ftp -3%

      So you can afford to give up Rubio’s assists – just barely. Right now it’s one of your strongest categories (22% better than league average), trading Rubio will decrease that by a good amount. You’ll also be relying on Greivis Vasquez’s assists to keep you above average, which is a bit risky.

      You can less afford to give up Rubio’s steals, in both cases the trade takes you from above average to slightly below average.

      On the plus side, both trades make you a better scoring team with more threes, less TOs. Anderson also improves your boards by a good amount, while you’ll take less of a hit in assists with Harden.

      In terms of overall value, both Anderson and Harden are better than Rubio. In terms of fit with your team, Rubio is probably the best out of the three. Given that, I’d call the trades fairly even for you and I’d only make them if you are looking to take your team in a new direction. 

    • Pingback: Give Me The Rock » Blog Archive » Day 58 of 124: There Will be Blood

    • Mike

      thanks guys…I went with the Anderson route.  I just missed out on Isiah thomas and I think, like you said Patrick, Im ready to take my team in a slightly different direction.  Thanks for the insight and time guys.