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  • Day 58 of 124: There Will be Blood

    Author Icon for Patrick

    Categorized as: Author: Patrick, Ballin Outta Control, NBA Teams, New Jersey Nets, New York Knicks, Player News
    Posted on: February 21st, 2012

    Line of the Night: It certainly wasn’t as sexy as his 51-point game on Sunday, but Kevin Durant (2.72) continues to shoot lights out as he zooms his way past LeBron to the top of our player rater. Against the Hornets, Durant finished with stat filling 31 points, 3 threes, 8 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 steals. A quick look at GMTR’s new game logs shows that he actually hasn’t had a negative WARP game all season – which means even Durant’s off nights are still better than half the league’s on-nights.

    Honorable Mentions: I actually feel bad for Jeremy Lin at this point. Well, as bad as you can feel for a dude who is going to make millions of dollars off Linsanity. I’m sure more than anything else the guy just wants to step on the court and play some basketball, and yet he’s been swept away in a whirlwind of media attention, none of which is his own doing as far as I can tell (it’s not like he’s stoking the fire Charles Barkley style or anything). Now enter Deron Williams, who has gone on a Kill Bill-like odyssey to take him down.

    It appears that the tweets that Deron Williams (2.53) got two weeks ago after Lin burned him to start the Linsanity craze have been seared in his mind:

    “When somebody says they destroyed you, and you watch the tape and you don’t feel like you got destroyed, you circle those games,” Williams said. “I took offense.”

    Took offense he did. Williams came out for blood in this game and got it, scoring 38 points on 8-14 from three and adding 6 assists in 34 minutes on the court as the Nets beat the Knicks 100-92. The narrative of the day is going to be that Linsanity is on the decline (because it would sell newspapers, if they still existed), but Jeremy Lin (1.83) was still the best Knick on the court last night, scoring 21 points and adding 7 rebounds, 9 assists and 4 steals on the night. Even better is that he only had 3 turnovers. Things didn’t exactly mesh perfectly with Melo back on the court, but Lin is not to blame for that. More on Melo below.

    ***

    Kyle Lowry (2.37) filled up the box score in a win over the Grizzlies with 24 points, 7 rebounds, 9 assists and 4 steals in nearly 47 minutes on the court. So much for the 25 minutes of run that Goran Dragic was getting per game a few weeks ago (he got 15 in the game). Meanwhile, Lowry has been playing 36+ minutes a night over the last week plus. Samuel Dalembert (-0.14) got his starting job back after being benched for missing a pre-game walk through over the weekend. He finished with a weak 9 points, 6 boards and 0 blocks in 20 minutes as his high flying act to begin the season is now well behind him.

    Monta Ellis (2.09) scored 32 points, adding 4 threes, 5 rebounds and 4 assists in a win over the Clippers. David Lee (1.47) chipped in 24 and 13 in the game. Randy Foye might be starting for the Clips, but Mo Williams (0.76) is the guy really poised to benefit from the Billups’ injury, as he hit 6 threes on his way to 22 points in the game.

    It appears that much needed rest Dirk Nowitzki (2.07) took a few weeks ago was exactly what the big man needed to turn his season around. Dirk scored 23 points and had a season high 16 rebounds in win over the reeling Boston Celtics. I love the C’s, but everyone is recording record high rebounding numbers against them this year. It’s almost like Jermaine O’Neal isn’t a good starting center anymore… Oh, wait…

    It was a lonely bandwagon to be on last month, but I know Erik and I tried to stress the fact that Channing Frye (1.87) was a notorious slow starter over his career. And while a month is way longer than anyone should need to get things started, Frye has finally started producing at the level we expected this season. His 19 points on 4-7 from three with 11 rebounds and 2 blocks against the Wizards was one of his best games of the season so far. His history suggests that he’ll remain hot the rest of the year.

    Andrew Bynum (1.85) had 14 points and 19 rebounds in a win over the Blazers. Nicolas Batum (1.85) made roto owners especially happy last night with 18 points, 3 threes, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals and 4 blocks. Now that’s how you fill up a box score kids.

    Tony Parker (1.76) had his third point/assist double-double in a row with 23 points, 6 rebounds and 11 assists against the Jazz. I’m smelling a career year from Parker. Big Al Jefferson led the Jazz with 20 and 11 in the game.

    Orlando/Milwaukee was a rebound fest. Dwight Howard (1.04) finished with 28 and 16. Ryan Anderson (0.71) added 11 of his own. Ersan Ilyasova (0.65) had another amazing game with 15 points and 15 rebounds in 40 minutes on the court. He’s now averaging 12.6 rebounds over his last 5 games.

    Finally, Derrick Rose (-0.07) returned to the Bulls’ lineup after missing 5 games with a sore back. He scored 23 points, adding 5 boards and 6 assists in the game. Now if he can just stay healthy the rest of the season, all will be good.

    Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Rookie Kenneth Faried (1.87) is taking advantage of a Nene-less Nuggets team. Faried got the start at PF for Denver against the Timberwolves and finished with a double-double – 10 points and 14 rebounds, with 2 steals and 3 blocks. It’s his second double-double since Nene has been out of the lineup and with Denver playing two more times before the break, he makes a nice add this week if you’re looking to squeeze a few games in. Long-term once Nene gets back, he’s going to have a tough time finding the minutes to be worth owning in fantasy leagues.

    Pick Up Lines: I actually picked up Matt Bonner (1.59) in one league last night before his 20 point, 5 three game against the Jazz because the Spurs have a unique Tuesday/Thursday schedule this week. Bonner has his ceiling as a player – he’s not going to do much other than hit threes and score some points, but he has his uses, especially if your team is playing very, very small and is punting boards/blocks.

    Larry Sanders (1.37) is the latest Buck to seemingly come out of nowhere and put up a fantasy line that screams “pick me up”. With Luc Richard Mbah a Moute in some mysterious Scott Skiles doghouse (any Bucks fans out there feel free to help us out with this one), Sanders got a season high 28 minutes and finished with a double-double: 13 points, 12 rebounds, 2 steals and 3 blocks. This came after a game in which he played 4 minutes and racked up 2 fouls as his only stat, so I’d definitely wait on picking up Sanders until he consistently starts seeing time off the bench for the Bucks.

    Ekpe Udoh (1.36) got the start at center for the Warriors and exploded, scoring a season-high 19 points (on 9-14 from the field), with 8 rebounds and 2 blocks in 38 minutes. Now before you go out and grab Udoh (too late?), as I mentioned on the comments of another post, Andris Biedrins missed this game with flu-like symptoms, which was the reason that Udoh got the start and saw so many minutes. Second, his per-30 averages suggest that he might never score 19 points again in his career. Even if he were to see 38 minutes a game the rest of the season, 8 and 7 is likely around what he’d average. Ok, he’d block 2-3 shots per game as well, which has it’s value if you are really looking for blocks on your team.

    Quick Hits: Yes, Jannero Pargo (1.30) is still in the league and playing for the Hawks. He hit 5 threes against the Bulls on his way to 19 points and 5 rebounds. He’s averaging 11 minutes a game this season though, so stay away.

    Ronnie Brewer (1.22) also had 13 points, 6 rebounds and 2 steals in that Bulls’ game. He is currently starting at shooting guard for the team, although his offensive game on most nights is about as good as mine. His upside is limited on his best nights and at his worst he’s a black hole for fantasy purposes.

    After straight four games of fairly pathetic lines, Trevor Booker (1.15) scored 16 points and added 8 rebounds against the Suns. Andray Blatche should be back for the Wizards sometime soon after the All-Star break and Booker isn’t really setting the world on fire right now, so I’d only consider him in 14+ team leagues at the moment.

    Steve Blake (1.02) hit 5 of 6 shots from three coming off the bench for the Lakers and scored a season high 17 points in 21 minutes. As much of a liability as Derek Fisher is at this point in his career, the Lakers don’t seem to think Blake is the answer at PG.

    Biggest Loser: The much anticipated return of Carmelo Anthony (-1.10) to the Knicks lineup ended in a thud. While Lin continued to do his thing with Melo back in the lineup, Anthony showed the rust of a guy who just sat out 7 straight games. He did have 11 points and 6 assists in the game, but complemented that with 6 turnovers (including one where he dribbled the ball off his foot) and shot 4-11 from the field and 3-6 from the line. So, until Melo gets his game legs under him, it’s still to be determined how he and Lin are going to fit together.

    A 3-13 shooting night for Nick Young (-1.24), who finished with 6 points, 2 rebounds and 1 assist against the Suns. Young has now shot 12-43 over the Wizards’ last three games

    ***

    Daily rankings and stats come from the GMTR H2H Player Rater (beta version). They are based on the stat Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) an estimate of the number of wins a player produces per week in H2H leagues over a replacement (waiver wire) player.

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    • http://twitter.com/conradburry Conrad Burry

      Daily-lineup, weekly league (tho this scoring period is 2 weeks). Scoring format: all stats = 1pt, TOs and FG / FT misses = -1pt. Do i drop Gooden to pick up Camby, Ayon, TBook, Amir, Tayshaun, JamJohn, Brewer, or Tristan? I only suggest it because I’m losing games by sitting Gooden, and I also have Gallo on my 3-man bench…

    • Davo

      Wow, someone was worse than Dorell?
      Combined 0 for shitloads and stuff all else over last 2 games.
      But hey, good end of season schedule!!

      He will come good, he will come good (as I rock back and forth in the corner).

    • Tonski21

      need help. someone is offering dwight howard for greg monroe.  should i take it? my team are the ff: lawson, j.r.smith, lebron, bosh, monroe, ilyasova, wilson chandler, brook lopez, marshoon brooks, jerely lin, ryan anderson, gerald wallace, louis williams.  hope you can help me

    • be the ball danny.

      I have monroe in my league and I like him a lot, but if your offered howard for monroe straight up, id take fast before its pulled.  you pretty much locked in rebs, a heathly amount of points, helpful blocks.  only downside is ft%.  I have no problem punting ft% knowing what howard does.

    • be the ball danny.

      didn’t even notice you have lopez.  even better.  make the trade and when lopez shows his stuff trade him for something else.  you got a good team there.

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

      I’d say Camby because he’s overall the most efficient (least missed shots and turnovers) and he’s basically a 10 and 5 guy, except it’s 10 rebounds and 5 points, but with each one worth 1 point, it doesn’t matter where they come from.

    • http://nelswadycki.com/ Nels

       Agreed. And you’ve already got LeBron who is just a average-to-poor FT shooter (though he’s stepped up more lately) and Jeremy Lin who’s also average-to-poor, so you might as well give up on FT% and then take Dwight, who is #3 on the season by simply taking out FT% vs. Monroe who is only #37 across the other 8 categories. Even with all categories taken into account Dwight is 27 vs. Monroe @ 37.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Is your league H2H? If so, you’ve got Josh Smith (horrible FT% shooter) and LeBron (not a great FT% shooter) so I’d embrace it and trade for Howard. You’ll pick up a number of categories – specifically points, boards and blocks – and it really will turn your team into a powerhouse that just punts FT% every week. 

      If you play in a roto league, I would stay away from Howard with all my being. 

      if you do trade for Howard, I would also trade away Bosh, since one of his big strengths is his FT%. 

    • Nuggs3

      just sent an offer of kevin martin and brandon jennings for aldridge and paul george. not sure if im giving up too much asking for too much or if its fair. thoughts?

    • Tmorgan

      So i am currently in  a 9 category keepr league (and sitting just barely in first).

      Yesterday I traded… Conley, Batum and Thronton (all good keepers based on my league which uses previous year drafts) to a lower team playing for next year for D. Will, Ibaka and Al Jefferson.

      My line-up now is:

      PG: D. Will
      SG: K. Martin
      SF: Lebron
      PF: Ibaka
      G: Iggy
      F: David West
      C: Amare
      C: Al. Jefferson
      Util: Lin
      Util: Duncan

      Bench: Stucky, Harrington, Isaiah Thomas

      Lin has value as a keeper.  Anyone you would specifically target to round out my line-up or am I pretty good?

      Love your site!

    • ton

      thanks for your inputs. i accepted the trade hope it helps me eventually

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      According to our rater, in terms of overall value you’re offering 1.18 wins/week for 1.27 wins/week, so it’s a trade that is at least in the ballpark of fair. Although if I were an Aldridge owner, I’d be hesitant to give him up for the up and down Martin and the likely overachieving Jennings. Still, it’s at least worth a shot to see what happens. 

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

      I’d look for upgrades for West and Martin. Other than that, the team is looking pretty good.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      How many teams in your league?  That will make some difference, but right now I’ve got your team as above average in every category except for TOs and threes. Your strongest cats are points, assists and blocks. In a 12-team league your pretty stacked at this point and would be my favorite to win it the league for sure. 

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Erik

       Good move! Even with Jennings’ breakout year, Aldridge is a rock and Paul George can only get better. It only looks like it’s too much in your favor in light of Martin’s recent bout of inconsistency.

    • Tmorgan

      12 team league… i am ok in threes (thanks to having thorton but tos are a problem… not really much to do about it and makes lin okay if you are tanking that)  i coul add harrington instead of west for 3s…

    • Davo

      Hey guys, its finally happened. Ive received a Lin offer.
      Current line up is below – 10tm 8Cat (noTO) daily changes H2H

      LeBron
      Jrue
      Harden
      Dirk
      DeMarcus
      Noah
      LIn
      Wright
      DeAndre
      Felton
      Isaiah
      Faried (waiver trade spot)
      Gallo

      Offer Received is Lin & Dirk for CP3 & Aldridge.

      PLEASE HELP – I know I have to take it but what will it do to my lineup.

      Thanks HEAPS!!!

    • ForeverYoung

      Quick help please! 12 team league, H2H, currently in 8th but moving up now that my players are finally healthy. Was offered Marc Gasol for my James Harden. I already have a glut of centers but I think this would really lock up big man categories for me, and I can’t help but hear your guys’ advice during the podcast that Gasol is a slight buy low from owners scared Randolph might hurt his numbers. Team below, let me know what you guys think! Also, if I accept, who should I look to trade? I’m thinking Pekovic or Dalembert depending on what I can get for them. Who’s a possible target? Thanks as always!

      His:
      Marc Gasol

      My:
      James Harden

      My team:
      PG – Steph Curry
      SG – Dwyane Wade
      G – James Harden
      SF – Luol Deng
      PF – Kevin Love
      F – Ryan Anderson
      C – Brook Lopez
      C – Roy Hibbert
      Util – Marshon Brooks
      Util – Jared Dudley
      Bench – Nikola Pekovic
      Bench – Samuel Dalembert
      Bench – Wilson Chandler

    • Kkrease

      Yo GMTR! Thanks for all your help in keeping me competitive in my league! You’re awesome. Now time to see if I can take advantage of another owner with a trade…

      He’s offering:

      Griffin, Lin, Teague, Scola

      for

      Rubio, McGee, Galinari, Jennings

      12 team, h2h categories, 3 keeper (McGee $5, Lin $5) everyone appro price

      What you think??

    • Nicholas Kastner

      Rubio is abnormally high assist guy / McGee is an abnormally high block guy / Gallo is a stud / I could do without Jennings…  Griffin is points and rebounds / I don’t trust Lin with Melo back / Teague is up and down / Scola is a good 2 center at best…

      I’d keep your dudes… you’ve got better diversity in categories.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Yeah, you are good to go then. Here is how your team compares to the average team in your league on a weekly basis (percentage plus or minus better)

      pts 22%
      reb 12%
      ast 27%
      stl 4%
      blk 24%
      to -21%
      3pm -5%
      fgp 3%
      ftp 1%

      So yeah, powerhouse. When I say your not strong in threes, that’s relative I guess, since your still about as good as the average team (and maybe eve better if Thomas is the real deal), In a perfect world, maybe you’d want to bolster either your rebounds or steals, but your fine with the team you have right now.

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Ok, assuming all your guys are healthy (including Gallinari) I’ve got your team looking like this compared to the average team in your league. (percentage plus or minus better than league average)

      pts 5%
      reb 8%
      ast 6%
      stl -1%
      blk 9%
      3pm -11%
      fgp 5%
      ftp 1%

      And here is what the trade will do to you:

      pts 6%
      reb 12%
      ast 9%
      stl 6%
      blk 8%
      3pm -16%
      fgp 5%
      ftp 2%

      So that trade is going to help you everywhere except for threes and blocks. Plus, I’m assuming that Lin stays pretty good the rest of the and averages something around an 18 and 8.

      I’d make that trade in a second. 

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      I believe Erik said he thought Gasol was a buy low candidate on the podcast, I am concerned that Randolph will actually eat into some of Gasol’s production when he gets back. I don’t want to be blamed if Gasol tanks in the second half of the season hahaha. Gasol will likely be better than he was last season, but I really don’t think he continues to grab 10 boards a game with Z-Bo back. That doesn’t necessarily mean he isn’t worth trading for though.

      So, comparing your team to the average team in your league (assuming all your players are healthy and Wilson Chandler is back and doing his thing for you), this the percentage better or worse you are on a weekly basis compared to league average. Note I am using the 2011-12 YTD stats with some adjustments for recent play over the last week or two. 

      pts 21%
      reb 26%
      ast -22%
      stl -9%
      blk 44%
      to -4%
      3pm 19%
      fgp 5%
      ftp 5%

      So what this is saying, your team is 21% better in points than the average team in your league. So, I can see why your team was worth the wait. It’s a really strong team when healthy, especially in points, boards, blocks and threes. Here is what swapping out Harden for Gasol will do (assuming that Gasol continues to play as well as he has this season).

      pts 20%
      reb 34%
      ast -24%
      stl -8%
      blk 68%
      to -4%
      3pm 4%
      fgp 5%
      ftp 3%

      The big hit you’ll take is in threes (you’ll also take a minor hit in points if Gasol regresses). Going from 44% better in blocks to 68% better probably has limited value – it’s a category your 99% likely to win every week anyway. Rebounds are also turned into a lock down category.

      But what the trade also allows you to do is get rid of Samuel Dalembert, who is slumping and doesn’t bring much to the table at this point other than his blocks. I doubt he has much trade value at this point, but you can shop him around and see if there are any takers. If you can replace him with a three point shooter, then you haven’t lost anything by trading Harden and turned rebounds into a lock down category for yourself. So I think the trade can work for you, you’ll just have to work a little more afterwards. 

    • Kalergis

      You are far too kind to Corey Brewer’s offensive production by comparing it to yours…….

    • http://givemetherock.com/ Patrick

      Assuming that Gallinari is healthy and Lin continues to play well the rest of the year and averages, say an 18 an 8, your big win out of this trade is going to be points, where you’ll gain about 8 per game. Boards and assists are about even, but you’ll lose steals (1 per game), blocks (nearly 2), threes (over 2) and gain TOs (over 3). You’ll gain a bunch of FG%, but give about equal amounts away in FT%. 

      I agree with Nicholas. Unless you’re a really, really big believer in Lin and want him next year as a keeper, I’d definitely keep your guys. Much better supporting stats. 

      Good luck with your league! Glad we can help!