My first favorite part of this is that GMTR is actually popular enough to get a take down notice! I have a bunch of stuff from Fringe (FOX) and Chuck (NBC) posted on another blog that nobody seems to care about (including some pictures of Yvonne Strahovski that are easily as hot as the Black Swan sex scene kissing picture). Maybe FOX is paying closer attention since they took over the YardBarker ads that are on the site and they don’t want to pay GMTR pennies on the dollar to advertise their movie for them. (Yeah, you puzzle that one out, too) (PS: Does “Maybe FOX” kind of look like “Megan Fox” to anyone? Well, we’ll see what the search engines think now…)

Here is the actual notice that came via email…

SUBJECT: INFRINGEMENT OF FOX RIGHTS – Black Swan sex scenes pictures

Notice of Infringement via Email

Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation
P.O. Box 900
Los Angeles, CA 90035

givemetherock.com http://www.givemetherock.com

Dear givemetherock.com:

I, the undersigned, confirm that I am an authorized agent of Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation and/or its subsidiaries and affiliated companies (“Fox”) and am authorized to act on Fox’s behalf in this matter.

I am writing to notify you of the infringement of Fox’s intellectual property rights on your site as identified below and demand that you take immediate action to permanently stop the infringing conduct.

I have a good faith belief that the links / files identified in the attached addendum are not authorized by Fox, any of its agents or the law, and therefore infringe Fox’s rights. On behalf of Fox, I demand that you immediately remove and disable these links / files.

This email is not a complete statement of Fox’s rights in connection with this matter, and nothing contained herein constitutes an express or implied waiver of any rights, remedies, or defenses of Fox in connection with this matter, all of which are expressly reserved.

I may be contacted at:
Email: antipiracy@dtecnet.com

Sincerely,
DtecNet

If you have some issues please reply to info.antipiracy@dtecnet.com, reply to no-reply@dtecnet.com will be ignored.

Addendum to Notice of Infringement
Black Swan sex scenes pictures – List of Allegedly Infringing Links:

http://givemetherock.com/wp-content/uploads/black-swan-Natalie-Portman-kissing-Mila-Kunis.jpg

I checked and we did actually get 25 whole visitors to the blog looking for Natalie Portman Kissing (since the start of the 2010-11 NBA season). (Don’t worry Mila, 4 of those people included you in their search terms)

In a sort of SEO experiment, let’s see if we can get more than 25 visitors over the next 5 months using the following pictures of Portman…

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Apparently Tony’s imitation of Tiger Woods cell phone use has led to Eva Longoria filing for divorce. You can read the Fantasy Basketbear’s fantasy analysis here, but really… come on you two! (Eva and Tony, not GMTR’s two readers)

a) Did Tony learn nothing about text messaging women who aren’t your wife? Did he just stick his head in the sand during the whole “Tiger Woods thing”?

b) Did Eva think that NBA players don’t cheat on their wives (probably) constantly? I mean, there once was a man named AC Green. He was a truly unique NBA basketball player.

c) Is one of the Spurs’ wives really hot? Because evidently there were hundreds of texts between Tony and this unnamed teammate’s wife. I know Richard Jefferson’s “not wife” was sort of good looking… And if someone married to Elin Nordegren is going to cheat with a bunch of skanks, someone married to Eva Longoria (who is, in my opinion at least one level below Elin), then Tony’s bar was probably not set all that high. Even then, I don’t think Tim Duncan’s wife is making the cut. Richard Jefferson’s ex-wife Teresa Lourenco definitely looks like cheating material… but she’s an ex-wife, so unless the reports are trying to help hide her identity, it’s not her.

That’s all I got. Oh, but I think Tony will definitely cool off fantasy-wise. I mean, he is already playing above his career numbers in every category so far this season. That would probably come down by itself, but I imagine that getting a divorce and a) going through all that drama or b) partying like the newly released bachelor he becomes is going to take it’s toll on Tony’s numbers either way. He was a Top 50 player in his prime, and is currently at #33 on the GMTR Fantasy Basketball Player Rater. I’m not saying he’s going to fall down to the 90-100 where he was projected, but I’m also not saying you shouldn’t try to sell him while he’s hot. Which is quite a coincidence since this week’s Fantasy Basketball Roundtable question was: “Who do you recommend selling high on?” and I couldn’t come up with a good answer before the deadline.

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• Avoid owning players with a history of injuries
• Backups are important
• Check on your fantasy team daily
• Stay on top of injury news
• Assume the worst

You can read the full column on SI.com.

If you are a regular reader of GMTR, then these suggestions shouldn’t be a big surprise. However, I did leave off the 6th suggestion, which is to be lucky. Be very lucky. Like the adage says, it’s better to be lucky than good. Even the best drafted team can crumble under the weight of too many injuries.

Injuries have been on my mind recently because, well, there have been a lot of them lately. I’ve also been thinking about some research I did a long time ago that found games played among players to be only loosely correlated from year to year. That is not surprising since injuries do have a lot of randomness to them. David Lee is probably not going to get Wilson Chandler’s tooth stuck in his elbow every year for the rest of his career. Shit happens, whether it is Chandler’s mouth or Reggie Evans punching you in the balls, and it’s impossible to predict when or where that might happen.

But at the same time, there are players who I’d describe as chronically injured. Yao Ming clearly fits this description. Baron Davis, Brandon Roy, Greg Oden, a pre-Suns Grant Hill. Some players have bodies that aren’t made for the daily grind of the NBA and seem to be more likely to miss games than the average player. But then how does Grant Hill go from not being able to stay on the court to being an iron man with the Suns? Is it all the Phoenix training staff? Is it “learning to listen to your body” as described by Hill? Has he just been incredibly lucky the last few years? If he is doing something that works, can it be applied to other players? This all fascinates me for some reason.

I’d love to see some research on predicting games played or injures, if something like that exists. Until then, the best we can do is to give you tips to manage injuries when they occur.

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Eric Bledsoe
Kyle Lowry
Ishmael Smith
Daniel Gibson
James Jones
Corey Brewer
Amir Johnson
Jordan Hill
Ronny Turiaf

Check out the full column on SI.com. There is rational behind the Corey Brewer recommendation, honest.

Dennis Velasco – the nomadic fantasy basketball soothsayer – has traveled up north to join The Basketball Jones and provide them with fantasy basketball content in a way that only the Jones can. Ironically, Dennis’ first column also includes Corey Brewer.

While I’m still partial to our daily rundowns, there is a lot of great daily fantasy basketball content being produced this season. Fantasy Basketball Daily has a nice player rundown every day, as does Rotoprofessor. Win My Fantasy League also analyzes box scores from a fantasy perspective and if you enjoy your fantasy analysis color coded, well, fBasketballBlog is the only way to go.

Adam at Razzball takes a look at managing game counts for those of you with a max games played count in your league. One great point in the article: Injuries will happen in the NBA and you best prepare for them.

The Fantasy Geek looks at who would be in the top 10 picks if a fantasy draft were held right now. I totally don’t agree with the picks, but it makes a good debate.

Although I’m sure you guys love the lyrical stylings of Nels, Erik and I, the guys over at Damn Lies & Statistics have also started up a weekly fantasy basketball podcast. I’ve listened to it and can safely say that if you like us, you’ll like them.

Finally, I know exactly what you’re thinking right now. What is Mike Fratello’s fantasy pick of the week? Ask and you shall receive my friends.

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First, let’s just say that calculating auction dollar values is an inexact science. There are a lot of variables that go into the calculations, some of which are completely unknown (like how each owner in the league likes to spend their money). But just because we can’t hope to accurately measure something doesn’t mean we stop trying. No, much like the local weatherman, the hopelessness of the endeavor only makes our resolve stronger.

***

Let’s forge ahead by defining some important league variables.

League scoring: H2H or roto, 9 statistical categories
Amount of money per team: $200 (a commonly used amount, although this can be anything in theory).
Number of teams: 12 (other typical setups include 10 or 14, or the dreaded 30 Man)
Number of starters per team: 10 (using a PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C, C, UTIL, UTIL setup, although this can vary as well).
Number of bench players per team: 4 (guess what? This can vary too).

Good to see there is so much in common between fantasy basketball leagues out there…

Ok, with that out of the way, here comes the more complicated stuff. First up, we need to figure out the average amount a team will spend per starter. Why? This will define the mid-point of our player value distribution. Typically, teams in auction leagues spend the majority of their money on starters, since they are the most important part of a team. Online auction leagues require that a team keep at least $1 per remaining roster spot, so the most a team could spend on starters in our league with 4 bench spots would be $196 (leaving $1 left over for each bench player).

Now, in my experience, it is a good idea to leave more than $1 per bench player for the end of an auction so that you can grab a decent sleeper or two without an opposing team screwing you over by bidding $2. So, let’s leave $10 for the bench (or $10 / 4 = $2.50 per bench player) which would give us $190 for the starters (or $190 / 10 starters = $19 per starter).

This amount can range from $19.60 per starter to $14.29 ($200 / 14 players total). Although good luck to you and your team if you plan to spend an equal amount on your starters and bench players.

Anyway, we have our (somewhat debatable) answer: the average starter in our league is worth $19.

Now that we’ve figured out what the average starter is worth, it’s time to figure out who the heck the average starter is. That sounds easy enough – and it would be – if player value was linear. However, at the very top of the league are guys like Kevin Durant and LeBron James who are so much better than everyone else that they skew the average towards the high end. (It’s why trying to build a winning fantasy team out of mid-round picks is tougher than it seems).

Therefore, in a league that starts 120 players (12 teams * 10 starters per) the average player is not guy #60. If you take a look at the GMTR player rater, the average starter in a 12 team, 10 starter league is around player #55 in 9-cat leagues (due to the effect of the first round draft picks). Here is a graph of fantasy value for the top 200 players for 2009-10.

Again, the “average” player will vary depending on the makeup and size of the fantasy league. For our purposes, we will make player #55 “Mr. Average” and lock in his value at $19, or the average amount of money being spent per player in the league.

With our mid-point defined, now we just have to define our two end points. The low end of the distribution occurs when players basically become “free” or can be had for the minimum bid ($1 in this league). This will vary quite a bit depending on how the auction plays out and how owners like to spend their money, but it will almost always happen somewhere between the first bench player (player #121 in this league) and the last bench player (player #168 in this league) when teams run out of money. For lack of a compelling reason otherwise, we’ll set this endpoint between those two numbers, around player #144. This is the point where player value becomes $1.

Again, this $1 point is a moving target which depends on the league. In a league full of aggressive owners, teams might be out of money by the time the first bench players show up. I’ve also been in auctions where tightwad owners horde so much money that, by the end, guys like Mike Conley start going for $15 because teams have so much money to blow.

The final step is to calculate the upper end of the distribution, aka Kevin Durant’s value. It’s outside the scope of this article (believe it or not), but on a per game basis, LeBron and Durant’s 2009-10 fantasy season was about 3.5 times better than the “average” starter in a 12 team, 10 starter league. It’s not that LeBron and Durant deliver 3.5 times the amount of stats, rather a team with LeBron or Durant is 3.5 times more likely to win in either a H2H or roto league compared to a league average starter.

So, as long as you accept that leap of faith, it means LeBron and Durant were worth about $19*3.5 = $66.5 last season (not adjusted for games played). This season, LeBron’s stats are expected to drop slightly in Miami, but it’s safe to say that Durant will be at least as good as he was last year, if not a little better. So, taking Durant’s value last season ($66.5) and projecting a 5% improvement this season results in a value for Durant at the high end of the distribution of around $70*.

Easy enough, right? With the upper, mid, and lower points of the distribution, we can calculate the remaining players’ dollar amounts based on the distribution of player value found in previous seasons (see the graph above for the shape of that distribution). Oh and as a final step, it’s important to normalize the dollar amounts so that they equal the total amount of money available to all teams (12 teams * $200 per team = $2,400 total for the top 168 players). Otherwise, it’s possible to get dollar amounts that wouldn’t jive with the amount of money available for teams to spend.

Of course, before any of this can happen, we actually need to create a ranked list of players in order of their expected fantasy value in 2010-11. And we at GMTR just made up that list.

* The actual calculation for Durant this season came out to $69.

***

Thanks to a couple readers who emailed with fascinating observations and discussion about the auction values we calculated for our player values. And special thanks to one reader who pointed out that my first attempt at calculating auction values was incorrect.

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If you have no idea what a fantasy auction is; it basically works like any other type of auction. You get a set amount of money (which may or may not be related to some buy in amount to get into the league, shhh), say $100 or $200, and you use that money to bid on players in monetary increments (usually $1). One person starts the auction by selecting a player to bid on and teams take turns either placing a bid on a player or removing their team from the bidding. The team with the highest bid (the last team standing) gets the player. Things continue player by player until you are either out of money or have a full team.

Now I love drafts. I will mock draft anytime, anywhere. fbasketballBlog set up a mock draft recently that I participated in while ignoring my crying one month old child behind me.* And yet, I feel that auction leagues are better than drafts in every conceivable way (except for one). Why?

Fun. You know what isn’t fun? Drafting a player and then waiting 15 minutes for the draft to get back to your spot. Also not fun? Getting slotted in a draft position that sucks. On the other hand, fun is having a new player to bid on every minute and having to quickly decide if he fits in with your team. Fun is having 5 seconds to decide whether you’re going to bid $76 dollars on Kevin Durant and blow half your load 5 minutes into the auction, or let that douche you hate get him for $75.

Total control over the team you build. There are certainly some draft strategies that you can use to mold your team in certain ways (like going big or small) but you never really have complete control over a team because teams do not get the opportunity to draft every player. You make a pick and then watch players come off the board until it’s your turn again. Auctions allow you to go after and get any player you want… for the right price. If you want to build your fantasy team like this year’s Miami Heat, you can probably do it in an auction.

The Money Game. Not only are you building a team during an auction, but you also have to make a decision on how you are going to use your money. Going to spend it all on a few great players (known as the stars and scrubs method)? Looking for value? Hording your money until the end to pick up good players on the cheap? It’s a game within a game. Just don’t break the cardinal rule of auctions – leaving money on the table – because it’s not like you can walk away with it at the end.

The Drama. No draft can create the kind of tension of an auction bidding war. Seeing two owners going after the same guy in an auction is great to watch as a spectator. However, as a participant it more often than not involves swearing as well as threats of physical harm.

***

Up until recently, there have been two distinct disadvantages of auctions: 1) they take longer than drafts from start to finish and, 2) they are complex to conduct.

The time commitment isn’t going to change. With all the bidding going on, auctions just take a long time to get through. Most of the ones I’ve done have been in the 2-4 hour range, which can be a pretty significant time commitment (especially if you’ve got a child crying behind you the entire time).

The good news is that auctions are getting easier and easier to run. There was a time – not long ago – when auctions required the entire league to physically together in a room (usually you had to walk uphill both ways in a snowstorm with no shoes to get there). Then came third party auction software and other types of online tools. But now we’ve reached the next level. Last year, ESPN added auction capability to their fantasy basketball leagues and this year, Yahoo is doing the same. So now the two big boys in the industry give leagues the ability to conduct auctions instead of drafts. I tried ESPN’s auction software last year and it is slick. Given Yahoo’s track record, their auction software should be easy to use as well.

If you’ve read this far, then you already know my recommendation. Give auction leagues a try this year. Chances are you won’t look back.

***

*Not true. My wife made me leave.

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• First off, as much as it hurts me to say this, congratulations to the Lakers who took care of business in game 7 of the finals to beat my beloved Celtics to win their second championship in a row and 16th overall. Game 7 was a defensive standoff, highlighted by super tight D, missed shots, blocks, steals, fouls and tons of Lakers’ offensive rebounds. It was also the highest rated finals since 1998.
• How about the Lakers coming out ahead in a battle of defense? They beat the Celtics at their own game, doing a great job of providing help defense, rotating to stop Boston’s quick passes around the perimeter and – doing something Boston couldn’t do – getting defensive rebounds.
• Short of a couple desperation threes, the Celtics couldn’t buy a shot in the 4th quarter of game 7 and looked gassed from expending so much energy on the other side of the ball. But also credit the great all around play by Ron Artest, who smothered Paul Pierce so much in that game, I’m pretty sure he can tell whether Pierce is circumcised or not. He probably mentioned it in his post game interview, which I didn’t watch.

• Speaking of the Celtics’ offense, man did that regress through the series. The first few games, they were running baseline screens and pick and rolls to get guys like Pierce and Allen open, which devolved to isolation plays for Pierce and KG in games 4 and 5, which devolved into ‘let’s run into a Laker, throw up a crazy shot and hope we can get to the line’ in game 7.
• I’m sure everyone feels this way about someone, but every time I see Sasha Vujacic, I want to reach through my television and punch him in the face. I really don’t know why. Just that his face disgusts me.
• The most painful part of the game as a Celtic fan was watching all those Laker offensive rebounds. As Jeff Van Gundy and company noted, when you miss as many shots as the Lakers did, you are going to have opportunities for offensive rebounds. The Lakers were bigger than the C’s at every position on the court, but damn that was painful to watch.
• Oh, the mandatory ‘what could have been’ moment from the finals. What if Kendrick Perkins didn’t get hurt in game 6? Perkins is a bruiser and is built like a piece of farm equipment, which is exactly what the C’s needed more of in the paint in game 7. Perkins definitely grabs a few of those Laker offensive rebounds, something old man Sheed and undersized Big Baby had trouble doing.
• Of course, it can go the other way too. What if Andrew Bynum had been completely healthy instead of playing on one knee? Oh wait, that’s never going to happen.
• The Celtics game plan all series was to force Kobe into taking the hardest shot possible and hope that his selfishness would put his teammates in a funk. It worked well in Game 5, when Kobe went off at the detriment to his teammates, and it almost worked in Game 7, as Kobe finished the game 6 for 24 from the field.
• But again, it all comes back to Ron Artest in game 7, who hit big shots when he needed to and carried the Lakers’ offense in the second quarter when Kobe couldn’t get anything going. Lamar Odom finally chipped in a couple good games and makes you realize how big of a match up problem he can be when he’s actually playing hard and not in some alternate universe. And Pau Gasol chipped away at the C’s big men all game so that by the fourth quarter they were all in foul trouble and he could do what he wanted down low.
• The Kobe to MJ comparison? I was actively rooting for Kobe to shoot the ball in this game rather than to pass it to Gasol, Odom Artest, or even Fisher. I don’t think I would have ever thought that about Jordan. At least the non-Wizards version.
• The fourth quarter of game 7 was probably the most painful 12 minutes of basketball I’ve watched in a long time. Boston put LA to the line 20 times in that quarter, starting with Ray Allen’s stupid foul on Kobe when he was just standing at the three point line and Boston was up by 4. Kobe wasn’t even going to shoot until Allen tangled up with him.
• The stake through the Celtics’ heart was Derek Fisher’s three with 6 minutes left in the game to tie the game at 64. I wasn’t even mad after that possession. I was simply impressed that Fisher could shoot a ball with such a high arc and it still go in. I think his shot might have touched the roof on the way up. Super ballsy shot by Fisher.
• Ray Allen generally played very good defense all series on Kobe, but (recorded breaking three point games aside) this finals series made me not quite as eager for the Celtics to resign him.
• No one gives a better 20 seconds than Brian Scalabrine.
• Almost went without mentioning Rondo, who was 2 rebounds short of a triple-double in game 7. Enough said.
• The thing that really burns my cabbage is that the Lakers will be just as good or better next season, while the Celtics and their big 3 have clearly peaked and are on the decline. This year was Boston’s best opportunity, next season ain’t going to be as pretty.
• Finally, I owe my television remote an apology. Sorry for throwing you around like that.

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There was a clear difference among the nominees: either belonging to a blog network or enjoying sweet, sweet independence. Hence we have the Bono Conference (named after one of the greatest networkers in history) and the Grimes Conference (after a true independent, a self-made man).

If GMTR were in this contest, we’d definitely be representing Frank Grimes

Two fantasy blogs even made the field of 16. Our friend Brendan of 2nd Round Reach clearly earned a number 1 seed in the Bono Conference, with a banner that only he can come close to describing:

[W]hat’s more ridiculously appealing than a hawk-man driving to the rim while a robot with giant springy arms prepares to execute his “command: shot- block/outlet” function?

In my opinion? Nothing.

And GMTR contributor Erik has also made the field as a fifth seed with his blog Points in the Paint. While Erik’s header is certainly more straightforward than Brendan’s, there is something about all those blue hues in Erik’s header that makes me all tingly on the outside.

So, go vote for your favorite header at Pete Marasmitch and make sure to give some love to the fellow fantasy bloggers. Both Brendan and Erik have great headers with a professionally polished look that a lot of the headers in this competition lack. Polls close tomorrow night.

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Line of the Night: It took the return of Manu Ginobili to push Tony Parker (1.18) to a LotN performance. Parker scored 42 points off 18-25 shooting and had 10 assists in the Spurs win over the Hawks. It probably helped Parker’s game that Duncan sat in this one, but Parker has now scored 20+ points in the Spurs last 10 games. Parker is at #72 on the 9-cat GMTR rater on the year, but #53 over the last 10 games.

A little something for our female readers. Wait, we have female readers, right?

Honorable Mentions: Dwight Howard (1.17) scored 24 and pulled down 21 rebounds as the Magic beat the Celtics to clinch the Southeast Division; and Chauncey Billups (1.08) out-dueled Chris Paul, as he scored 26 points, hit 5 threes and added 6 boards and 6 assists in a 101-88 Nuggets win over the Hornets.

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Can you believe that someone named Mike Taylor (0.98) had the best fantasy game out of everyone playing in the Clippers/Knicks 140-135 overtime game? Taylor scored 35 points and had 8 rebounds off the bench for the Clippers (which was good for the 4th best line of yesterday). Seeing that it’s the Clippers, I thought they might have pulled someone out of the stands 15 minutes before the game and handed them a uniform, but Mike is a rookie out of Iowa State who was originally drafted in the second round by the Blazers. 35 points is – you guessed it – a career high for Taylor.

The Waiver Wire Honorable Mentions: Rodney Carney (0.92) scored 21 in his first start of the season for the Wolves, and Charlie Bell (0.73) went for 20/6/7 off the bench for the Bucks.

The Biggest Loser: Other than Vanessa Bryant? Ok, how about Marcus Camby (-0.66). Camby played all of 15 minutes against the Knicks, taking and missing one shot and finishing with no points and 3 rebounds.

All Eyez on Me: Three games tonight, starting with Los Angeles (56-14) at Detroit (34-36. Both teams have plenty of low end fantasy options that are probably available in your league (like Will Bynum and Trevor Ariza).

Miami (38-33) at Chicago (34-38) – Derrick Rose is questionable and probably will sit out of this game with a bruised wrist. I know it feels good Derrick, but time to slow down a little on the masturbation.

The late game pits Phoenix (40-31) at Portland (44-27) – I’m legitimately curious to see the Shaquille O’Neal vs. Greg Oden matchup. Hopefully, it works out a little bit better for Oden than their first two matchups, where he racked up 10 fouls in 31 minutes. But it probably won’t.

Dont miss a day of the Fantasy NBA. Subscribe to Give Me The Rock  right now. You can also get bonus (and easily digestible) content by following GMTR on Twitter, or join the Give Me The Rock Room on FriendFeed to get posts, Twitters, and Midnight Snacks all in one place. You can even become a fan of GMTR on Facebook! We’re so social!

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