Give Me The Rock

I quietly rolled out a little something new to the GMTR player rater today (you probably didn’t watch the press conference, did you). At this point in the season, player ratings start to get locked in, meaning they don’t change much based on a guy’s recent performance. That’s all and well most of the time, but for those waiver wire guys it’s not about what they did over the course of a season, it’s about what they are doing right now.

So, in that spirit, you will now see a column in both the 8-cat and 9-cat raters called “LAST10,” which represents - get this - a player’s rating over the last 10 games. Well, technically not HIS last 10 games, but his team’s last 10 games. This means that someone like Gilbert Arenas won’t have any score in that column (since he’s missed the Wizards past 10 games) and someone like Kevin Martin will have his score based on the 3 games he’s played in since coming back from injury. It’s not perfect, but it’s an indication of whether a guy is trending up (Nate Robinson) or trending down (Chris Kaman).

As pretty much always, thanks to Dougstats for the raw data. I’d give you money if I actually had any.

Back to your regularly scheduled programming.

When I’m prepping for a draft and want to figure out how valuable a player is expected to be, 90% of the time I’ll take a look at his stats from the prior season and make an adjustment up or down depending on the guy’s age. If I’m really being thorough, maybe I look at the past two years. But is that right? Are players’ stats consistent enough from year to year to make accurate predictions that way?

Statistical analysis to the rescue! One of the simplest ways to look at this question is to examine the correlations of the major stat categories to see how related player stats are from one year to the next. The goal is to answer the question: how consistent are the box score stats from year to year?

To start with, I compiled data for every player in the NBA for every year they were in the league from 2003 to 2007. Guys who were in the league the entire time had 5 years of data, while guys who retired, were drafted, or came into or out of the league for other reasons had less. I then removed players who averaged less than 20 minutes a game for two seasons in a row. This means that a guy who averaged 10 minutes in 2003 and 10 minutes in 2004 had his 2003 and 2004 stats removed, but a guy who averaged 10 minutes in 2003 and 25 minutes in 2004 stayed in. I did this to increase variability in the data (journeymen who average 5 to 15 minutes a game over the course of a few years are remarkably consistent, in an “I score 2 points a game” kind of way). However, I did not want to mask any important increases or decreases in playing time, so guys who jumped back or forth over the 20 minute threshold remained in the data. Rookies are included in the analysis, but their first comparison year was obviously between their rookie and sophomore seasons.

If all that sounds incredibly boring, trust me, it was. But onto the “fun” part. I ran year to year pairwise correlations on 11 statistical categories (games, minutes, field and free throw percentage, rebounds, assist, steals, blocks, turnovers, and points scored) to see how related the categories were from one season to the next. The comparisons were made between the 2003 and 2004 seasons, the 2004 and 2005 seasons, and so on.

After all that, here are the results.

The categories are listed from most to least correlated, meaning blocks stay the most constant from year to year, followed by assists and three pointers. Not surprisingly, all three are specialized stats that usually belong to a certain type of player. A six foot point guard who doesn’t block any shots isn’t suddenly going to grow eight inches and become a force in the paint, for example. So, yes, for the stats at the top end of list, you can get a really good idea of what a guy will do based on what he did last year.

While I’m not surprised to see that games played at the bottom of the list, I did not expect the correlation to be so low (0.19). Looking at the table, it’s a huge drop off from the second least correlated item (field goal percentage at 0.49) to games played. The results suggest that the number of games played (on average) in one year is barely related to the one before or after it. Put more simply, it would not be wise to predict how many games a guy will play next season based on the number he plays in this one.

I was also surprised to see both field goal and free throw percentage at the lower end of the correlation list. Before starting this analysis, I would have guessed they’d be at the top because percentages are not dependent on playing time. But compared to blocks, assists, etc, they are quite a bit less consistent.

For clarity, here are the year to year changes in blocks, points, and games played in graphical form (click to view larger image).

The shortcoming of this type of analysis is that it does not examine specific players to see if any types of players are more or less consistent than others, and if so, who they are. In fantasy, it’s pretty common to discuss a player’s durability or lack thereof as if we can easily predict how many games a guy will play in the future based on his past. While this analysis shows that this is generally not true, there are certain players who have been consistent (over the last five years, at least). Jason Terry, for example, played in either 80 or 81 games for all the five years that were included in the data. Is Terry an outlyer? A freak of nature? Did he have his bones replaced with an adamantium exoskeleton in a clandestine government project? Are there others like him? I don’t know. But if there is ever a part 2 to this analysis, I’ll take a look at that question.

It’s not just back. It’s also improved… a little. Now, in addition to the 8-category player rater that we had last year, I’ve also taken the time to create a 9-category rater for everyone who plays in leagues that count turnovers. I’m feelin’ ya 9-cat people. I’m also in a 9-cat league this year myself.

Consider the player raters a work in progress. I’m thinking about how to better incorporate trending information in the raters this year. Trends are not in there yet, but I’ll be working on it over the next week or so.

For those of you relatively new to GMTR, when we refer to player ratings (including those game scores I’ve been mentioning the past couple mornings) or player rankings, it’s almost always pulled from these spreadsheets. Cause they’re the best.

If you’re curious, I create my own player rating spreadsheets for a few reasons. First, I deeply distrust every human being who walks the planet. Alright, actually, while I think the fantasy rating tools from most of the major sites, like Yahoo, range from ok to useless, there are some good third party player raters out there. I think Basketball Monster is a great site and I deeply miss the once great Rotopoll.com.

I’m also a stats geek at heart (which once resulted in one of the least cool high school nicknames of all time - MathMadden). This means that I like to tinker around with formulas and equations while normal people are surfing the internet for porn or hanging out with Kendrick Perkins.

Finally, I use the player rater to conduct other analysis which I sometimes write about on GMTR, like the stuff about effective free throw percentage or to answer the question, “how valuable would Dikembe Mutombo be if he just stopped playing offense all together?” I dig hypothetical questions like that.

All in all, it’s an incredibly geekified thing to do, but they didn’t call me MathMadden because I was out banging cheerleaders under the bleachers in high school.

GMTR Fantasy Basketball Player Rater (8-category league)
GMTR Fantasy Basketball Player Rater (9-category league)

I lied. My favorite time of year is actually Talk Like a Pirate Day. But the NBA preseason is fun and it gives us the first glimpses into the upcoming year. I’m so excited that I ran the preseason stats for the entire league through our player rater and calculated rankings for everyone who played in at least one game. The list that follows is the top 100 players during the preseason on a per game basis (note that Jason Kidd has only played one game, for example). Of course, don’t take too much stock in these numbers (small sample sizes apply as do guys sitting out of games and not ready for prime time rotations), but it is possible that a few of these players will continue their performance during the regular season. And as Bill Belichick taught me, every little advantage counts.

I’ll breakdown some of the over/under performing players a little later. Until then, enjoy the list.

Rank/Player/Rating/Games
1. Monta Ellis (6.4) - 2 games
2. Marcus Camby (5.2) - 3 games
3. Gerald Wallace (4.9) - 7 games
4. Dwight Howard (4.7) - 6 games
5. Rudy Gay (4.7) - 6 games
6. Allen Iverson (4.3) - 6 games
7. Kevin Garnett (4.2) - 6 games
8. Manu Ginobili (4.2) - 4 games
9. Martell Webster (3.8) - 7 games
10. Vince Carter (3.8) - 5 games
11. Shawn Marion (3.5) - 8 games
12. Dirk Nowitzki (3.1) - 6 games
13. Amare Stoudemire (3) - 2 games
14. Joe Johnson (2.9) - 7 games
15. Lamarcus Aldridge (2.9) - 6 games
16. Corey Maggette (2.8) - 6 games
17. Ronnie Brewer (2.7) - 7 games
18. Kevin Martin (2.7) - 7 games
19. Steve Nash (2.7) - 8 games
20. Baron Davis (2.5) - 4 games
21. Josh Childress (2) - 6 games
22. Chris Paul (1.8) - 8 games
23. Chris Wilcox (1.8) - 7 games
24. Josh Smith (1.7) - 8 games
25. Al Jefferson (1.5) - 7 games
26. Kelenna Azubuike (1.5) - 5 games
27. Andrei Kirilenko (1.4) - 7 games
28. Carmelo Anthony (1.3) - 5 games
29. Jermaine O’neal (1.2) - 3 games
30. Jason Kidd (1.2) - 1 games
31. Jason Richardson (1.1) - 6 games
32. Chris Kaman (0.8) - 6 games
33. Leandro Barbosa (0.8) - 6 games
34. Paul Pierce (0.7) - 6 games
35. Eduardo Najera (0.7) - 4 games
36. Carlos Delfino (0.7) - 4 games
37. Andre Iguodala (0.7) - 7 games
38. Mike Dunleavy (0.6) - 8 games
39. T.J. Ford (0.2) - 4 games
40. Andrea Bargnani (0.1) - 4 games
41. Delonte West (0.1) - 4 games
42. Rashad Mccants (0) - 5 games
43. Anthony Roberson (0) - 5 games
44. Andris Biedrins (0) - 2 games
45. Travis Outlaw (-0.1) - 7 games
46. Jamaal Tinsley (-0.1) - 7 games
47. Kevin Durant (-0.1) - 6 games
48. Kobe Bryant (-0.2) - 6 games
49. J.J. Redick (-0.3) - 5 games
50. Andre Miller (-0.3) - 7 games
51. Hilton Armstrong (-0.3) - 8 games
52. Grant Hill (-0.4) - 8 games
53. Bostjan Nachbar (-0.5) - 6 games
54. Al Horford (-0.5) - 8 games
55. Mo Williams (-0.5) - 6 games
56. Damon Stoudamire (-0.5) - 4 games
57. James Jones (-0.5) - 2 games
58. Brad Miller (-0.6) - 7 games
59. Josh Howard (-0.7) - 7 games
60. Boris Diaw (-0.7) - 7 games
61. Brent Barry (-0.7) - 5 games
62. Linas Kleiza (-0.8) - 6 games
63. Ricky Davis (-0.8) - 6 games
64. Marvin Williams (-0.9) - 8 games
65. Chauncey Billups (-0.9) - 6 games
66. Luke Ridnour (-1) - 7 games
67. Hedo Turkoglu (-1) - 6 games
68. Brandon Bass (-1) - 8 games
69. Andrew Bynum (-1.1) - 7 games
70. Ray Allen (-1.1) - 7 games
71. Jarrett Jack (-1.1) - 7 games
72. Daniel Gibson (-1.2) - 4 games
73. Theo Ratliff (-1.2) - 5 games
74. Al Harrington (-1.2) - 5 games
75. Jordan Farmar (-1.3) - 7 games
76. Al Thornton (-1.3) - 8 games
77. David Lee (-1.5) - 6 games
78. Carlos Boozer (-1.5) - 4 games
79. Mike Bibby (-1.5) - 7 games
80. Earl Watson (-1.5) - 6 games
81. Deron Williams (-1.5) - 7 games
82. Raja Bell (-1.6) - 8 games
83. Chris Duhon (-1.6) - 7 games
84. Louis Williams (-1.6) - 7 games
85. Ike Diogu (-1.6) - 8 games
86. J.R. Smith (-1.7) - 6 games
87. Shane Battier (-1.7) - 6 games
88. Lebron James (-1.7) - 7 games
89. Wally Szczerbiak (-1.7) - 6 games
90. Darius Washington (-1.7) - 6 games
91. Jose Calderon (-1.8) - 4 games
92. Sam Cassell (-1.8) - 6 games
93. Troy Hudson (-1.8) - 4 games
94. Tyrus Thomas (-2) - 7 games
95. Damien Wilkins (-2) - 7 games
96. Anthony Parker (-2) - 4 games
97. Charlie Villanueva (-2) - 8 games
98. Rajon Rondo (-2) - 8 games
99. Juan Dixon (-2.1) - 4 games
100. Francisco Garcia (-2.1) - 7 games

Finally, here are the point guard and their crazy tiers. Previously, I’ve gone over shooting guards, small forwards, power forwards and centers. As always, you can find the tiers for all positions in the GMTR player tier spreadsheet.

Tier 1
Gilbert Arenas (PG) - 5
Steve Nash (PG) - 7

Very different players here, but both are strong first round picks. Nels said he was willing to go number one overall with Arenas, but I don’t believe he ever got the chance to back that statement up this year. I’m not quite that in love with Arenas – fifth overall sounds about right – with Nash following shortly thereafter.

Tier 2
Jason Kidd (PG) - 13
Chris Paul (PG) - 13

The tier two point guards are worthy of back-end first round or early second round picks. I may have publicly stated my preference for Jason Kidd, who has been healthier over the past two years, but I ended up with Chris Paul in two leagues and I’m ok with that decision.

Tier 3
Deron Williams (PG) - 27
Baron Davis (PG) - 28
Chauncey Billups (PG) - 32

Again, you’ve got three guys going around the same spot in drafts. It all depends on your style I guess. Do you want the young stud who is likely to improve, but doesn’t have the track record of the other two, the best of the three who always seems to kill fantasy teams with his injuries, or the consistently solid franchise guy who you can count on?

Tier 4
Kirk Hinrich (G) - 40
Leandro Barbosa (PG) - 46
Tony Parker (PG) - 51
Raymond Felton (G) - 52
Andre Miller (PG) - 57
Mo Williams (PG) - 58
Mike Bibby (PG) - 60
T.J. Ford (PG) - 64

Like the shooting guards, there is a lot of value in the mid-rounds for point guards. Hinrich is the best of the bunch, but I’d be happy with every single one of these guys. Bibby especially seems to be flying under the radar and could bounce back after a somewhat disappointing year.

Tier 5
Stephon Marbury (PG) - 74
Rajon Rondo (G) - 80
Jameer Nelson (PG) - 83
Mike Conley Jr. (G) - 93

Tier five gets a little risky, with Marbury, Rondo, and Conley as picks who may or may not have good years. Damon Stoudamire is still the starter in Memphis, but Conley has been playing well this preseason, so much so that he started the in the Grizzlies last game. Just so you know, Rondo averaged 13 points, 6 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 2.5 steals per game over the last month of the Celtics season. I’m just sayin’.

Tier 6
Jarrett Jack (PG) - 100
Chucky Atkins (PG) - 102
Jamaal Tinsley (PG) - 110
Devin Harris (PG) - 115
Rafer Alston (PG) - 119
Acie Law IV (G) - 120
Brevin Knight (PG) - 135
Sam Cassell (PG) - 135
Derek Fisher (PG) - 137
Jose Calderon (PG) - 140
Luke Ridnour (PG) - 150
Earl Watson (PG) - 155
Mike James (PG) - 169
Earl Boykins (PG) - ND
Jannero Pargo (PG) - ND
Jason Williams (PG) - ND
Steve Blake (PG) - ND
Chris Duhon (PG) - ND
Javaris Crittenton (G) - ND
Nate Robinson (G) – ND

Alright, I admit I just threw a bunch of guys into tier six because I’m lazy. The one thing they do have in common: there are no sure things here. Jarrett Jack is talented guy who had a nice little year in 2006-07, but he’s likely going to be splitting time with Steve Blake. Jamaal Tinsley racks up mad assists when healthy, but I’d be surprised if he can match the 72 games he played in last year. Looks like Chucky Atkins is losing his starting job to Allen Iverson, mostly because he’s been hurt this month. It only a matter of time before Brevin Knight takes over for the corpse of Sam Cassell, but he’s another guy who has had trouble staying healthy. Devin Harris is my sleeper du jour as it appears Dallas intends to make him more of a focal point in their offense.

With small forwards, power forwards and centers done, it’s time to take a look at shooting guards. As always, you can find the tiers for all positions in the GMTR player tier spreadsheet.

Tier 1
Kobe Bryant (SG) – 2

As much as I hate Kobe, he’s in a class by himself among shooting guards. Of course, there is always a chance he walks away from the Lakers to go play on Pluto, but don’t worry, chances are much better that he sticks around and continues to annoy us from LA for years to come.

Tier 2
Dwyane Wade (G) - 9
Allen Iverson (G) - 19
Ray Allen (SG) - 26
Vince Carter (GF) - 23

When healthy, Wade can come close to matching Kobe in terms of fantasy value, but his shoulder injury will keep him out to start the season and that drops him into the second tier. There is some uncertainty around Ray Allen and what his role will be on the Celtics, but if he can put up anything close to his career averages, he’ll be a steal in the late second round. Vince Carter just signed a new contract this summer. The last time he did that, things didn’t work out so well for the Raptors.

Tier 3
Gerald Wallace (F) - 29
Tracy McGrady (GF) - 33
Michael Redd (GF) - 33
Joe Johnson (G) - 34

I considered combining tiers two and three because there is not much separating them. But, Gerald Wallace and his style of play frightens me a little, Tracy McGrady and his back scares me a whole lot, and Redd and Johnson are just a notch below the guys in tier two.

Tier 4
Brandon Roy (G) - 41
Kevin Martin (SG) - 46
Manu Ginobili (SG) - 53
Jason Richardson (GF) - 53
Ricky Davis (GF) - 58
Monta Ellis (G) - 68
Ben Gordon (SG) - 61
Jason Terry (G) - 61

If you wait until the middle rounds to grab a shooting guard or two, you won’t be disappointed. Some crazy value in this tier – I particularly like Martin (don’t overlook those percentages), Richardson (new team and healthy right now), and Ricky Davis (besides him and Jefferson, who else is going to score).

Tier 5
Stephen Jackson (GF) - 81
Richard Hamilton (SG) - 82
Randy Foye (G) - 84
Kyle Korver (SF) - 87
Raja Bell (SG) - 98
Jamal Crawford (SG) – 103
Matt Carroll (GF) - ND

Based upon the Adam Morrison injury, I’m bumping Carroll up from tier six to five. He’s a good late round sleeper and, if you’ve already drafted, grab him off waivers if you’ve got the space. Tier five had got a good mix of established vets that are going to deliver exactly what you expect, like Hamilton and Jackson, and some nice upside guys, like Foye and Carroll.

Tier 6
Anthony Parker (GF) - 105
Delonte West (G) - 105
Marco Belinelli (G) - 116
Steve Francis (PG) - 119
Corey Brewer (F) - 122
Larry Hughes (G) - 126
Cuttino Mobley (SG) - 127
Charlie Bell (GF) - 136
Luther Head (G) - 163
Jason Kapono (GF) - ND
John Salmons (GF) - ND
DeShawn Stevenson (SG) - ND
Rasual Butler (GF) - ND
James Posey (GF) – ND
Wally Szczerbiak (GF) - ND

The funny thing about shooting guards, since much of their value is derived from, you know, scoring, they kind of fall off the map pretty fast. Unless they are particularly good at something else, like threes or steals, no one really wants a backup shooting guard who averages 12 points a game. But there’s a little something to be found here: Anthony Parker did average 12 points a game last year for the Raptors, but he’ll be starting and should improve; in the past Delonte West has racked up the stats when he’s gotten playing time; Corey Brewer has looked good so far in the preseason for the Wolves; and Marco Belinelli can shoot the three, if you’re team is in need of that kind of thing.

I’ve gone through the power forward and center tiers. Now it’s time for the small forwards. As always, you can find the tiers for all positions in the GMTR player tier spreadsheet.

Tier 1
LeBron James (SF) – 4

James is in a small forward league by himself. He finished last season ranked in the 20’s on the player rater, but that was solely due to his horrible free throw percentage. Can he improve that that this year? It’s the only thing holding him back from being the best fantasy player in the league.

Tier 2
Josh Smith (GF) - 16
Andre Iguodala (GF) - 17
Paul Pierce (GF) - 24
Rashard Lewis (SF) - 21
Carmelo Anthony (SF) - 26

A lot of different types of players in this tier. Smith’s percentages are horrible, but he is a rebounding and blocking machine. Iguodala is the man on the Sixers and will be one of the league leaders in steals. Pierce and Anthony are a great source of points, while Lewis averaged 2.5 threes a game last season.

Tier 3
Caron Butler (SF) - 32
Kevin Durant (GF) - 43
Josh Howard (GF) - 47
Ron Artest (SF) - 48
Mike Miller (GF) - 51
Luol Deng (GF) - 52

Much more so than power forwards and centers, the third small forward tier delivers some real studs like Bulter, Howard, Miller, and Deng. Durant is a wildcard, but he’s been basically been given the reigns of the Sonics, so the points, rebounds, and assists should be there for him. Artest is insane and has already been suspended for the first 7 games of the season, but hey, if everything else works out…

Tier 4
Andrei Kirilenko (F) - 66
Danny Granger (F) - 68
Corey Maggette (GF) - 77
Richard Jefferson (SF) - 81
Rudy Gay (GF) - 80

Tier four contains three guys looking to bounce back from off years and two young guys who should take big steps up this season. But only one of these guys gets a free poon card once a year.

Tier 5
Josh Childress (GF) - 79
Tyrus Thomas (F) - 92
Andres Nocioni (F) - 99
Peja Stojakovic (GF) - 100
Morris Peterson (GF) - 101
Tayshaun Prince (SF) - 105
Shane Battier (SF) - 114
Walter Herrmann (F) - 120
Mike Dunleavy (GF) - 131
Marvin Williams (GF) - 133

I put Childress in tier five because he’s not going to be starting this season. He’s always been the type of guy who needs a lot of minutes (35+) to get his. Walter Herrmann was a stud at the end of last season and his stock is rising now that Sean May is done for the season. Peja’s back is still hurting him, but if you’re up for the risk, there is always the chance he could be a top 50 player again. And I like Nocioni this year for some reason that I can’t explain.

Tier 6
Jeff Green (F) - 110
Luke Walton (SF) - 121
Travis Outlaw (F) - 135
Quentin Richardson (GF) - 135
Hedo Turkoglu (GF) - 150
Grant Hill (GF) - 150
Gerald Green (GF) - 157
Matt Harpring (GF) - ND
Jerry Stackhouse (GF) - ND
Ruben Patterson (F) - ND
Matt Barnes (SF) - ND
Adam Morrison (GF) - ND

Someone out of tier six is going to break out this season, but your guess is as good as mine as to who that is going to be. Jeff Green is going to get big minutes on a young Seattle team. Luke Walton racks up the all round stats… when he’s healthy. Travis Outlaw could be a good source of steals, blocks and points, but I don’t think the minutes are going to be there this year. Q-Rich was also good when healthy last year. Dare I mention the name Grant Hill? He’s looked good in the preseason.