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Or rock the GMTR podcast feed for iTunes.

Podcast Links
Damn Lies Fantasy Hoops Show

Let’s Talk Fantasy…

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• GMTR Podcast #33: Breaking Down the Deadline Deals (4)
• GMTR Podcast #32: The Calm Before the Storm (14)
• GMTR Podcast #31: All About LeBron’s Man Purse (0)
• GMTR Podcast #30: Second-Half Breakout Players (22)

Click to play or Download here (Right-click and Save As)
Or rock the GMTR podcast feed for iTunes.

Spoiler Alert Ahead!

***

If you can’t listen to the podcast, here are our weekly waiver wire plays.

• Jordan Crawford
• Alonzo Gee
• Metta World Peace
• Rip Hamilton
• Steve Novak
• Matt Bonner
• Deeeeeeeep League special: Solomon Jones

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• GMTR Podcast #35: Limping to the Finish (4)
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• Day 86 of 124: Who Needs Derrick Rose When You Have Carlos Boozer* (38)

Click to play or Download here (Right-click and Save As)
Or rock the GMTR podcast feed for iTunes.

Update: For a rundown of some of the key concepts taken up in this podcast, head over to our article contribution to Sports Illustrated for the week.

Note: In this special strategy podcast, we decided to forgo our usual discussion of current events around the league as well as our waiver wire recommendations for the week. Those will be back for next week’s podcast.

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• GMTR Podcast #34: Tips to Win Your Fantasy Basketball Playoffs (8)
• GMTR Podcast #33: Breaking Down the Deadline Deals (4)
• GMTR Podcast #32: The Calm Before the Storm (14)
• GMTR Podcast #31: All About LeBron’s Man Purse (0)

But, as always, I want to see what the numbers tell us. So I pulled all of the game-by-game results for this season and last season to compare the margin of victory in each. Here are what the numbers look like:

So, it appears that our gut feeling has some merit. The margin of victory has grown by 1.7 points per game this year. In 2011-12, games are being decided by 12.3 points per game compared to only 10.6 a game last season. Similarly, the median game is being decided by 11 points this season compared to only 9 last season.

What does this mean in terms of number of blowout games:

If we define a blowout as a game with a margin of victory of 20 points or more, then the percentage of blowout games have increased from 12% last season to 18% this season. Yes there are blowouts where the losing team’s bench makes a furious comeback in the final few minutes to make the score respectable, but A) that’s a tough thing to quantify and B) the number of times that happens should even out across seasons.

***

More blowouts also mean less close games. If we define a close game as one where the losing team could have tied the game in a single possession, then the percentage of close games have decreased over the past year from 15% to 11%. Bad news for anyone who loves to see Kevin Durant hit 30-foot buzzer beaters.

But while close games are what interest NBA fans, it’s the blowouts that really have a negative effect on fantasy owners. During blowouts, starters often get pulled from the game early and see fewer minutes than normal. This leads to more inconsistency in nightly stat lines for even the best players in the league.

For a fun exercise (yes, this is what I do for fun), here are the number of blowouts so far this season by team:

Holy Sixers! So far this season Philadelphia has won 6 games by 20 or more points. They’ve done so by crushing the worst the NBA has to offer with big wins over the Kings, Raptors, Pistons, Suns, Warriors and Wizards. For the most part, Doug Collins has been content to run with his starters in these blowout (hence all the blowouts in the first place) although guys like Andre Iguodala and Spencer Hawes have started to see more bench time in the team’s last few big wins.

On the flip side, the Bobcats and Kings have each lost 4 games by 20+ points, which I don’t think is a big surprise to anyone. Tyreke Evans has been especially vulnerable in these games – he’s seen about 8 minutes less a game in 3 of the 4 blowouts. Boris Diaw and D.J. Augustin have also consistently seen fewer minutes in the Bobcats blowouts.

It’s too early to tell whether this trend will continue as the season wears on (or even get worse) or if this is a fluke due to a small sample size of games so far this year. There have been 169 games played so far this season compared to over 1,200 in a normal season. 169 is a decent number of games to draw conclusions from, but it’s still only a small proportion of the games that are going to be played this year.

But I think we can all agree; here’s to more close ones.

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Prologue

Allow me to give a little background to how my mind was blasted out of my skull. When Nels, Patrick and I were prepping the pieces we were planning to roll out for the upcoming (at the time) fantasy basketball season, I mentioned to them that I wanted to do a little experiment. For those who are new to reading GMTR, I am a gamer. I play boardgames (far more complex ones than your garden variety Monoply), role-playing (MMORPGs, Pen and Paper, etc.), and yeah I too once fell into that Magic the Gathering trap. Bottom line is that I am a strategist and like mapping out a design for things to fall into my desired outcome. That being said, I’ve done some reading into Game Theory and have been for some time now exploring how it applies to fantasy basketball – specifically drafts. Geeky, too geeky I know; but that’s how I roll. Call me a nerd, a geek, whatever you want; as long as you don’t forget to include fantasy basketball expert/multiple-champion when you do.

As a drafting advantage in fantasy basketball, managers can generally predict who absentee managers’ teams will be picking on their turn during a draft due to Yahoo Rankings. Unless of course they pre-ranked to pick Derrick Rose first overall or something mind blasting like that. That extra information is useful for managers to gauge when the guy their targeting will be at risk of being auto-picked by the draft A.I. Enter my intended experiment. I was planning on doing a post where I would list ALL the players I preferred to draft. Being in many leagues over the years, I’ve surmised that we all have our favorites. You know, guys we like to own in one league will tend to show up in our other leagues. Call ‘em “common denominators”. This would provide managers participating in the same draft that I am in with even more information they can use, because now a live drafter is effectively predictable. This would be giving my leaguemates a clear advantage over me as they clearly possess more information during the draft than I did. I wanted to explore whether or not the said information would cause a Prisoner’s Dilemma of sorts. Would the guys next to me in the draft, choose players that best suited their strategy OR use draft picks to deny me players I wanted to utilize in my strategy. Things work out well when player 11 is drafting small ball and player 12 is drafting big ball, for example. Neither player is interested in the other’s targeted guys, thus providing a greater ease in each team accomplishing his strategic goals.

The Draft

“the best laid schemes of mice and men… and Erik” “…oft go awry, and leave us nothing but grief and pain”

Due to the shortened time we had to prepare for this fantasy season, I wasn’t able to roll out the above mentioned experimental post. Instead I opted to do the next best thing. During the pre-draft chit-chat in the actual draft applet, I decided to tell everyone in the room that I was going to draft according to Patrick’s “Playing the Percentages” draft strategy and that they should feel free to counter draft if they so chose.

I was 8th in the draft order and was thinking that I was in the Pau Gasol or Stephen Curry sweet spot. The draft was going pretty well, running smoothly, Durant then LeBron going #1 and #2 respectively. Derrick Rose was a slightly surprising hiccup at #3, but things fell into place thereafter with CP3, K-Love and Wade getting picked in timely fashion. I had Pau Gasol queued up and ready to go and was already mapping out a LaMarcus Aldridge second-round pick on the return pass. I smile. I blink. And see “DRAFTED” in a deep, blood red just underneath Pau Gasol’s name. I blink again, doing a double take. This time my eyes wander to the chat box to see Nels say “COUNTER-DRAFTED!”

This is the part where my mind got blasted.

An avid GMTR reader and fantasy blogger, Mike Sardone was at the helm of Team 7. He quickly goes on to explain that he had a bad experience in drafting around Dwight Howard (finishing last) in last season’s GMTR Readers League, and has opted to stay away this year. I kind of see his line of thinking especially since I, on the other hand, drafted Pau Gasol and finished in first place.

Now I’m in a quandary. Do I go for Dirk Nowitzki/Stephen Curry, who are the best players who happen to fit my intended draft strategy OR take the debatable best player in 9-category, head-to-head, Dwight Howard; who by the way, is probably the last player in the Top 25 (or even Top 150) you’d want to build a percentages strategy around. The tables are turned. From my intent of putting the drafters next to me in a position where they’d have to choose a best player for them versus counter drafting me, I am now on 90-second clock to throw my strategy out the window and “wing it”.

RULE # 143 of Fantasy Basketball Drafting: Be Flexible

I am a firm believer in flexibility during a draft. It can spell the difference between a good team and a OMG!-WTF? kind of team. So, I took what fell my way and as they say the rest is history.

Unbeknownst to Mike, I was actually inspired by his Dwight-Howard-centric draft last season. I built on it, drafting along the methodology that he employed and took it to an experts league draft. I finished the regular season atop the league’s rankings and came in second in the playoffs, beaten (by ESPN) only on by points scored. So unlike my buddy drafting next to me, I’m not as Howard-averse. Here’s how the rest of the first round panned out.

*Respecting our readers’ privacy, I will only note teams by GMTR authors.

Round 1

1. Kevin Durant (OKC – SF) Team 1

2. LeBron James (Mia – SF,PF) Team 2

3. Derrick Rose (Chi – PG) Team 3

4. Chris Paul (LAC – PG) Team 4

5. Kevin Love (Min – PF,C) Nels

6. Dwyane Wade (Mia – PG,SG) Team 6

7. Pau Gasol (LAL – PF,C) Team 7

8. Dwight Howard (Orl – C) Erik

9. Stephen Curry (GS – PG) Team 9

10. Dirk Nowitzki (Dal – PF) Team 10

11. Deron Williams (NJ – PG) Team 11

12. Al Jefferson (Uta – PF,C) Team 12

The Dwight pick cemented my new strategy. Get the best guy available while ignoring the FT% cat.

Round 2

1. Russell Westbrook (OKC – PG) Team 12

2. Carmelo Anthony (NY – SF,PF) Team 11

3. Monta Ellis (GS – PG,SG) Team 10

4. Al Horford (Atl – PF,C) Team 9

5. Josh Smith (Atl – SF,PF) Erik

6. Blake Griffin (LAC – PF,C) Team 7

7. Amar’e Stoudemire (NY – PF,C) Team 6

8. Rudy Gay (Mem – SF,PF) Nels

9. LaMarcus Aldridge (Por – PF,C) Team 4

10. Danny Granger (Ind – SF,PF) Team 3

11. Eric Gordon (NO – SG) Team 2

12. Kobe Bryant (LAL – SG) Team 1

At this point I had my choices pretty much narrowed down to two, Josh Smith or Blake Griffin. I’ve paired Griffin with D12 last year with a great degree of success, but we have Smith rated higher than Griffin, plus I had yet to own Josh in a league this season. Wasn’t too difficult a toss up on this one for me.

Round 3

1. Steve Nash (Pho – PG) Team 1

2. Serge Ibaka (OKC – PF,C) Team 2

3. John Wall (Was – PG) Team 3

4. Dorell Wright (GS – SG,SF) Team 4

5. Paul Pierce (Bos – SG,SF) Nels

6. Kevin Martin (Hou – SG) Team 6

7. Rajon Rondo (Bos – PG) Team 7

8. Gerald Wallace (Por – SF,PF) Erik

9. David Lee (GS – PF,C) Team 9

10. Paul Millsap (Uta – PF) Team 10

11. Zach Randolph (Mem – PF,C) Team 11

12. Manu Ginobili (SA – SG,SF) Team 12

“The move” here should have been grabbing Rajon Rondo, but apparently Team 7 decided to seriously counter-draft me. Whether it was intentional or otherwise, Rondo would have been a perfect fit for my team. He would have added a steals and assists dimension to the team that I could have built on. You can imagine that I must have been screaming bloody murder at that point. The book move would have been to select Paul Millsap. I, however, was a bit worried about the big man log jam in Utah. Had New Jersey’s acquisition of Mehmet Okur taken place a week earlier, my move would have been different. Gerald Wallace has far less competition for opportunities to produce over at Portland, so I decided he would be a serviceable swing man to add to my team.

Round 4

1. Brook Lopez (NJ – C) Team 12

2. Nene Hilario (Den – C) Team 11

3. Jrue Holiday (Phi – PG) Team 10

4. Andre Iguodala (Phi – SG,SF) Team 9

5. Kyle Lowry (Hou – PG) Erik

6. Greg Monroe (Det – C) Team 7

7. Joakim Noah (Chi – PF,C) Team 6

8. Chris Bosh (Mia – PF,C) Nels

9. Raymond Felton (Por – PG,SG) Team 4

10. Channing Frye (Pho – PF,C) Team 3

11. Mike Conley (Mem – PG) Team 2

12. Marcin Gortat (Pho – C) Team 1

I had Iguodala on queue when he went just before my turn. Don’t you just hate it when that sort of thing happens? So, switch gears and decided I wanted to grab a PG at this point and Kyle Lowry was simply the best one available, whether I was ignoring FT% or not. I’ve seen him fly off draft boards as early as the third round, so I feel getting him at 41st overall was pretty good. We at GMTR, based on 2012 projections have him ranked 30th overall.

Taking a quick, sneaky peak at Nels’ team we’ll notice that he has some pretty impressive percentage-friendly players on his team. His strategy, which he so generously shared in the draft chat was “try to not fuck-up” strategy. At this round, barring Pierce’s recent issues with his heel, Nels looks like he’s on the right track, right?

Round 5

1. Elton Brand (Phi – PF,C) Team 1

2. Danilo Gallinari (Den – SF) Team 2

3. Marc Gasol (Mem – C) Team 3

4. David West (Ind – PF) Team 4

5. James Harden (OKC – SG) Nels

6. Kevin Garnett (Bos – PF) Team 6

7. JaVale McGee (Was – PF,C) Team 7

8. Ty Lawson (Den – PG) Erik

9. Luol Deng (Chi – SF) Team 9

10. Tyreke Evans (Sac – PG,SG) Team 10

11. Joe Johnson (Atl – SG,SF) Team 11

12. Ray Allen (Bos – SG) Team 12

You may probably have guessed that I had McGee on queue when this happened. You were right. The sheer shock compelled me to type some nasty things to the owner of Team 7. So nasty, I will not repeat it, you know out of respect for all the teenage swimsuit models and toddlers who read Give Me The Rock on a daily basis. I was considering Ray Allen for his good FG% and threes, but my thinking at this stage was to get more assists and steals without slamming FG%. Lawson has a very high ceiling this season, and I am hoping he can maintain his 50.3 FG% from last season.

Nels at this point looks like is punting assists while trying to contest both shooting percentages every week. An insignificant stat like assists (or lack thereof) won’t phase a true fantasy maestro like Nels.

Round 6

1. Chauncey Billups (LAC – PG) Team 12

2. Andrew Bynum (LAL – C) Team 11

3. Andray Blatche (Was – PF,C) Team 10

4. Andrew Bogut (Mil – C) Team 9

5. Jarrett Jack (NO – PG,SG) Erik

6. Lamar Odom (Dal – SF,PF) Team 7

7. Carlos Boozer (Chi – PF,C) Team 6

8. Andrea Bargnani (Tor – PF,C) Nels

9. Marcus Thornton (Sac – SG) Team 4

10. Roy Hibbert (Ind – C) Team 3

11. DeAndre Jordan (LAC – PF,C) Team 2

12. Jason Kidd (Dal – PG) Team 1

What the hell was I thinking? I don’t know. I lost my cool. My low frustration tolerance was getting the best of me and it started to cloud my judgement. Admittedly, Jack was a terrible reach at this stage and I really, really needed to get my Goosfraba going. Fantasy Basketball Drafting Rule # 12: Keep your cool.

Round 7

1. Tyson Chandler (NY – C) Team 1

2. Nicolas Batum (Por – SG,SF) Team 2

3. Kyrie Irving (Cle – PG) Team 3

4. Arron Afflalo (Den – SG) Team 4

5. Tim Duncan (SA – PF,C) Nels

6. Wesley Matthews (Por – SG,SF) Team 6

7. Tony Allen (Mem – SG,SF) Team 7

8. Luis Scola (Hou – PF,C) Erik

9. Jason Richardson (Orl – SG,SF) Team 9

10. Tony Parker (SA – PG) Team 10

11. Stephen Jackson (Mil – SG,SF) Team 11

12. Antawn Jamison (Cle – SF,PF) Team 12

Scola seemed like a reasonable choice. We projected him at 82nd so taking him at 80 wasn’t so bad. At the time, I was expecting some upside to Luis due to Houston’s lack of help at center. He brings my team PTS, REB, and FG%. Works for me.

And as you may have noticed, Nels was “the brave one” to finally draft Tim Duncan and clear him off the autodraft queue. Round 7 is reasonable value for TD. If he had fallen to me, I would have grabbed him in a heartbeat, especially since I didn’t particularly care whether he made his freethrows or not.

Round 8

1. DeMar DeRozan (Tor – SG,SF) Team 12

2. Caron Butler (LAC – SG,SF) Team 11

3. DeMarcus Cousins (Sac – PF,C) Team 10

4. Boris Diaw (Cha – SF,PF) Team 9

5. Emeka Okafor (NO – C) Erik

6. Jeff Teague (Atl – PG,SG) Team 7

7. Kris Humphries (NJ – PF) Team 6

8. Rodney Stuckey (Det – PG,SG) Nels

9. Anderson Varejao (Cle – PF,C) Team 4

10. Brandon Jennings (Mil – PG) Team 3

11. Toney Douglas (NY – PG,SG) Team 2

12. Darren Collison (Ind – PG) Team 1

Emeka Okafor represents what I like to call a “locking mechanism”. He’s there to secure that my team wins rebounds and blocks every week.

Round 9

1. Paul George (Ind – SG,SF) Team 1

2. Tyrus Thomas (Cha – PF,C) Team 2

3. Jared Dudley (Pho – SG,SF) Team 3

4. Carlos Delfino (Mil – SG,SF) Team 4

5. Amir Johnson (Tor – PF) Nels

6. Thaddeus Young (Phi – SF,PF) Team 6

7. Samuel Dalembert (Hou – C) Team 7

8. Jason Terry (Dal – PG,SG) Erik

9. Nick Young (Was – SG,SF) Team 9

10. D.J. Augustin (Cha – PG) Team 10

11. Devin Harris (Uta – PG) Team 11

12. Hedo Turkoglu (Orl – SF,PF) Team 12

Terry was a pure value pick at this stage. We have projected at 80 and I’m picking him at 104th overall. Not bad. His threes might not be enough to win against more balanced teams, but I like his low turnovers, steals, and decent FG% (for a three-point shooter).

Nels really likes Amir Johnson this season, for some reason. I’ll let him elaborate on that preference himself.

Round 10

1. Chuck Hayes (Sac – PF,C) Team 12

2. Michael Beasley (Min – SF,PF) Team 11

3. Omri Casspi (Cle – SG,SF) Team 10

4. Ryan Anderson (Orl – PF,C) Team 9

5. Jameer Nelson (Orl – PG) Erik

6. Anthony Morrow (NJ – SG,SF) Team 7

7. Corey Maggette (Cha – SF,PF) Team 6

8. Jose Calderon (Tor – PG) Nels

9. C.J. Miles (Uta – SG,SF) Team 4

10. Austin Daye (Det – SF,PF) Team 3

11. Shawn Marion (Dal – SF,PF) Team 2

12. Chase Budinger (Hou – SG,SF) Team 1

I took stock of my team and saw that I was equipped to contest assists in most match-ups. Nelson represents my lock on dimes. Jose Calderon had a better APG average, but I’m wary of Calderon’s ability to stay healthy.

Round 11

1. Brendan Haywood (Dal – C) Team 1

2. Chris Kaman (NO – C) Team 2

3. Derrick Williams (Min – SF,PF) Team 3

4. George Hill (Ind – PG,SG) Team 4

5. Landry Fields (NY – SG,SF) Nels

6. DeJuan Blair (SA – PF,C) Team 6

7. Gerald Henderson (Cha – SG) Team 7

8. John Salmons (Sac – SG,SF) Erik

9. Andrei Kirilenko (Uta – SF,PF) Team 9

10. Carl Landry (NO – SF,PF) Team 10

11. Ricky Rubio (Min – PG) Team 11

12. Trevor Ariza (NO – SG,SF) Team 12

Rounds 11 through 13 are for filling up teams’ benches. My general “starters” are already set. It’s time to grab a “just in case one of my guys get hurt” player. I prefer to get players who are allowed to play multiple positions. Salmons, to my mind, was a decent choice at this juncture. I thought that Kaman, Ariza, and Salmons were some of the better value picks in this round. Good work!

Round 12

1. Ed Davis (Tor – PF,C) Team 12

2. Jamal Crawford (Por – PG,SG) Team 11

3. Kendrick Perkins (OKC – C) Team 10

4. Jodie Meeks (Phi – SG) Team 9

5. Charlie Villanueva (Det – PF) Erik

6. Brandon Bass (Bos – PF,C) Team 7

7. Andre Miller (Den – PG) Team 6

8. Rashard Lewis (Was – SF,PF) Nels

9. Marcus Camby (Por – C) Team 4

10. Mo Williams (LAC – PG) Team 3

11. J.J. Hickson (Sac – PF,C) Team 2

12. Kenneth Faried (Den – PF) Team 1

My starters were a bunch of centers and point guards, so I figured forwards would be the preferred choices for my bench. Admittedly, Charlie V was not so hot. Letting J.J. Hickson slip passed my fingers was kind of an oversight. Well now that Sacramento has come to terms with Chuck Hayes, again, it’s not looking too bad.

Rashard Lewis? Really Nels? I am shocked and speechless.

Round 13

1. Ben Gordon (Det – PG,SG) Team 1

2. Udonis Haslem (Mia – PF,C) Team 2

3. Al Harrington (Den – PF,C) Team 3

4. Kemba Walker (Cha – PG,SG) Team 4

5. Ramon Sessions (Cle – PG,SG) Nels

6. Josh McRoberts (LAL – PF,C) Team 6

7. O.J. Mayo (Mem – SG) Team 7

8. Shane Battier (Mia – SF) Erik

9. Wes Johnson (Min – SG,SF) Team 9

10. Gary Neal (SA – SG) Team 10

11. Louis Williams (Phi – PG,SG) Team 11

12. Vince Carter (Dal – SG,SF) Team 12

Shane is a “for OLD time’s sake” pick. He’ll give me threes and a block a night, plus the thought that he’ll get good usage from Miami was an encouraging thought. As I write this draft recap, Battier’s no longer on my team. I dropped him in favor of Mehmet Okur.

There you go folks, a really, really long recap. I hope you all enjoyed it and found it somewhat useful/informative. Advanced Merry Christmas to everyone!

P.S. To everyone competing against me in this league and want to take the title from the reigning, defending, undisputed champ… Bring it! Good draft. Good game. Let’s play (fantasy) ball!

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Tier 1: The First Rounder

Dwyane Wade (7)

People don’t typically go looking for a shooting guard in the first round of a draft, but if Wade is sitting there at the back end of the first you could certainly do worse. That’s not what you’d call an unconditional endorsement. Wade is going get banged up over the course of a season and his first year playing alongside James and Bosh saw his assists drop by about 2 a game. But his rebounding numbers were way up last year and he shot 50% from the field to go along with a 25.5/6.4/4.6 and 1.1 blocks a game. Those are numbers you can build a team round, with the added bonus that he qualifies at PG in Yahoo leagues.

***

Tier 2: Run and Gun and Gun

Monta Ellis (13)
Eric Gordon (18)

Ellis and Gordon have both had their own share of injury problems in the past. But when healthy, these guys can score with anyone in the league and kick in some decent assist numbers as well. Monta Ellis gets the slight edge in this tier because he’s performed at this level in the past, although new coach Mark Jackson is doing his best to mess with that by proclaiming that he’s going to use the 6-3 Ellis on the block this season.

Eric Gordon’s trade to the Hornets leaves him as the de facto number 1 scoring option on a team in need of that and he should log some heavy minutes and usage rate as a result. Our projections love Gordon this year and having him averaging nearly 25 points a game.

Tier 3: The Arthritis Trio

Kobe Bryant (24)
Kevin Martin (27)
Manu Ginobili (31)

On the plus side, Kobe Bryant played all 82 games last season. And that’s all the positive news I have. His 34 minutes a game were the fewest he’s averaged since 1998. As a result, all his counting stats took a slide and he ended the season ranked 25 on the GMTR Player Rater. Chris Paul might have been able to solve a lot of Kobe’s problems this season, but thanks to the maniacal David Stern, it’s another year of the barely there Derek Fisher at PG for the Lakers. That being said, the 33-year old Kobe still has enough in the tank to pull down something in the neighborhood of a 25/5/5.

2010-11 was the first season Kevin Martin was able stay healthy in what seems like forever. Houston has been a great fit for his game and if you’re looking for points, threes and FT% out of your shooting guard, Martin is one of the best in the league. The question is can he stay healthy again?

On a per game basis, Manu Ginobili had one of the better seasons of his career in 2010-11 mostly because his minutes jumped up to about 30 a game as the Spurs lean more and more on his offensive game as Duncan ages. The schedule is going to be brutal for an old team like the Spurs, which is why he’s in the third SG tier despite finishing last season ranked 19 on the GMTR Player Rater.

Only one of the players in this tier is going to get divorced from this woman this year.

Tier 4: Solid Mid-Rounders

Jason Richardson (37)
James Harden (45)
Ray Allen (49)
Joe Johnson (52)

A solid, if somewhat unspectacular tier. James Harden is the upside guy here if you want to reach. He could be in for that third year bump, but what really excites me is that there is a very good chance he starts for the Thunder over Thabo Sefolosha (and rightly so). A starting gig and a bump in minutes means that Harden could explode this year even if his per-36 minute numbers don’t take a huge jump up.

Other than that, you know what you are getting with the rest of the tier. Jason Richardson resigned with the Magic, where he should get plenty of minutes. His 2010-11 splits indicate that he really missed Steve Nash after leaving Phoenix, but he’s still going to hit a ton of threes and put up some decent overall numbers.

We’ve discussed Joe Johnson a bit already in the comments of our top 150 player post. His per-36 minute trends are all heading in the wrong direction, so his projection is down from last season’s already down year. The departure of Jamal Crawford means that Johnson could see a bump in minutes and get his groove back, but I’d rather let someone else find that out this season.

Tier 5: The Breakouts

Tony Allen (65)
Jared Dudley (71)
Arron Afflalo (76)
Landry Fields (78)

It’s possible that every one of the guys in this tier end up better than the guys in the tier above them. But until they prove it, they slot in a tier below due to the uncertainty around their performance. Right now, Tony Allen appears to be the Grizzlies’ starter and will be one of the top steals guys in the league. Jared Dudley should start for the Suns this season and could breakout if he gets the minutes. If Arron Afflalo resigns with the Suns, he’ll be their clear starter and is one of the few SGs who shot 50% from the field last season. Impressive considering he also hit 1.5 threes a game.

Tier 6: Feel the Burn

Jason Terry (83)
Marcus Thornton (86)
Wesley Matthews (95)

Thornton and Matthews are the upside guys, which I guess makes Terry the downside guy. Wesley Matthews had a nice breakout season on the Blazers last year – averaging nearly 16 points and 2 threes a game – and will improve on that in his third year if he gets the minutes. The Blazers’ recently added Jamal Crawford to the mix, which definitely throws a little uncertainly into Matthews’ projection, but for now we’re assuming the retirement of Brandon Roy and additional of Crawford sort of kind of net each other out.

Marcus Thornton burned it up after being traded to the Kings last season, averaging 21.7 points a game. It’s always risky to base a draft pick on what a guy did in 27 games at the end of the season, but the Kings really don’t have any other options unless you’re a big Jimmer Fredette fan. We have Thornton regressing some off his crazy Kings’ line, but our projection of 17 points and 1.5 threes will still be a net positive for a fantasy team.

Tier 7: The Value Bin

Stephen Jackson (89)
DeMar DeRozan (105)
Vince Carter (106)
Paul George (119)
Rodrigue Beaubois (122)
Jodie Meeks (124)
Ben Gordon (126)
Jamal Crawford (127)

Reports are that Stephen Jackson is unhappy with his contract and may be already playing the injury game with the Bucks. He was originally in the tier above this one, but I’ve preemptively knocked him down and we’ll be readjusting his rank when updated GMTR top 150 player rankings come out.

There is certainly some value to be had in this tier if you want to wait and grab your shootings guards at the end of a draft. Our projections don’t love DeMar DeRozan, but he could easily end up finishing the year with the group of players in the tier above, especially if he’s able to improve on his 17.2 ppg scoring average from last year.

Paul George looks to be the Pacers’ starter and in their first preseason game he scored 17 points and grabbed 10 boards. Rodrigue Beaubois is working his way back from a broken foot, but provided he’s healthy he’ll get the minutes vacated by JJ Barea and could easily breakout this season.

To say that Ben Gordon has been buried by the Pistons is an insult to dead people, but the departure of Rip Hamilton (how you like your shooting guard now, Nels) and Tracy McGrady means that the team will be forced to give him minutes. He probably won’t be as good as he was with the Bulls, but he’s definitely a solid sleeper candidate this year.

Tier 8: Don’t Wait This Long

Jordan Crawford (135)
Nick Young (141)
Richard Hamilton (142)
Anthony Morrow (143)
Shannon Brown (149)

From Jordan Crawford’s Yahoo player page: “Jordan Crawford never met a shot he didn’t like.” His 38% shooting from the floor last year is a pretty good indication of that. There will be minutes to be had for Crawford running alongside John Wall, especially if restricted free agent Nick Young leaves, but it’ll be a painful shooting ride if you decide to draft him.

Richard Hamilton’s move to the Bulls at least gets him away from the horrible relationship he had with the Pistons at the end of his run there. Maybe Tom Thibodeau can work his Magic, but I’m not holding my breath on a soon to be 34 year old SG.

The fact that Shannon Brown went to the Suns is good news for his fantasy value, but he’ll need some other Suns to go down with injuries to get more than the 20 or so minutes a game that he averaged with the Lakers. Anthony Morrow has proven himself to basically be a three-point specialist in his time with the Warriors and Nets. But if you need threes, you can get them with Morrow in this tier.

Guys like O.J. Mayo (155), Rudy Fernandez (159) and Daniel Gibson (163) would also slide into this tier if we went a little deeper.

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First of all, if you’re cramming your fantasy basketball research, expecting to see Jarrett Jack on this list, forget about it. EVERYONE knows they’ve gotta get their Jack on in the draft… okay, that sounded less appropriate than I hoped… but you know what I meant. He’s officially a no-brainer, must-pick at this point and that’s no secret.

Here, however, are some players that maybe overlooked in a lot of leagues.

Brendan Haywood, C Dallas Mavericks – While eyes are focused on seeing Tyson Chandler sign a big contract  with the New York Knicks, a lot of people have not paid much attention to what remains of the Dallas Mavericks’ now thinner frontcourt. Haywood is their only “true center” and is in a position to post a comeback season. Chandler stole a lot of his thunder along with his starting gig and corresponding minutes and it should be interesting to see if he can post an 10-rebound, 2-block nightly average. While we’re not holding our breath on that to come right away, seeing 8.0 RPG and 1.8 BPG would be a decent start.

Kendrick Perkins, C Oklahoma City Thunder – Did you see how much work he put in the off-season to shed 32 frickin’ pounds! If I lost that much weight my cardiologist would have a freakin’ heart attack (out of surprise). Medically, this means there’s going to be a lot less pressure on his knees and probably gives him the body type needed to be able to run the break with Durant and company. While his main role will still be that of in-paint enforcer, his improved health and conditioning points to him getting some solid averages in the boards and blocks department.

Anthony Morrow, G/F New Jersey Nets – He was plagued by a plethora of injuries last season and couldn’t seem to renew his percentage-friendly, three-point shooting groove from his days at Golden State. He’s now the Net’s starting shooting guard and is (based on reports) injury-free. He’s passed on in most standard leagues, which is understandable. But if you’re in the late rounds of a deep league draft, you may want to snag Morrow for some 3′s and hopefully some solid FG% and FT%.

Brandon Bass, F/C Boston Celtics – I just spotted this guy getting picked up of the free agent pool in a 16-man league I’m in. I did a little digging and saw that Bass is positioned to garner a lot of usage over a Bean Town. With Glen Davis gone, who else can the Celtics start at center? It’s not like they can trust Jermaine O’Neal to be healthy or anything like that. Bass will provide your team some extra boards at low turnovers. He’s worth some serious consideration in deep leagues that tend to cause “big man droughts” in the late rounds of the draft.

Daniel Gibson, G Cleveland Cavaliers – The Cavs utilized their amnesty clause on Baron Davis. That clearly seals rookiee Kyrie Irving as the team’s starting point guard. The question is who’s going to start alongside Irving. One of the leading contenders for that job is Boobie Gibson. 3′s, assists and the occasional steal were what we could expect from him as an injury-plagued reserve last season, but if Gibson can parlay his offensive abilities to help overshadow his being undersized and a defensive liability, look to him to post points in the double digits accompanied by around two treys per night.

Matt Barnes, G/F Los Angeles Lakers – Admittedly, this is somewhat of a risky pick even for a deep league draft. But Barnes has been anointed the team’s starting SF job. The Phil Jackson era is over and things are  changing faster than Kobe’s relationship status. Barnes won’t likely be able to rekindle his Phoenix numbers, no ex-Suns player has, but he should be good at knocking down treys and keeping a sane FG% in the process. Anything beyond those expectations would be gravy.

Ryan Gomes, F Los Angeles Clippers – After the Clips gutted their roster to acquire Chris Paul from New Orleans, one can’t help but see their gaping hole at the swing position. Yes they have Caron Butler, who is actually in for a bounce back season, but is unfortunately the farthest thing from being a poster boy for injury resiliency. He’s Butler’s primary back-up and will be playing alongside Blake Griffin at times when DeAndre Jordan gets into foul trouble. While high utilization does not always directly translate into fantasy productivity, Gomes will have enough opportunities in this shortened season to prove naysayers wrong. Consider him as your deep-league, last-round flier pick.

Ekpe Udoh, F/C Golden State Warriors – I was high on him as a rookie during the last few weeks of last season. A little bit too high to the point that slotting him in my line-up in playoff finals was a bit too ballsy (even for me). Udoh came into the forefront of my attention when he started to get some solid minutes. You remember, that time Andris Biedrins was wallowing in a stat of fantasy suckage. Speaking of “suckage” the Warriors signed  Kwame Brown. Anyone who has played fantasy basketball knows that Brown cannot be trust as certain as Chris Mullin can knock down a free throw. Seriously, Udoh has impressed coach Marc Jackson so far and has purportedly been working on some post moves over the off-season. Don’t be surprised if this sophomore winds up contributing more than just his expected 1.5 blocks per game. Consider him as a late-round shot-blocking specialist in deep leagues.

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Toad would make a pretty awesome Point Guard

So, here is the explanation behind the GMTR Fantasy Basketball Players by Tiers spreadsheet. For Point Guards, at least.

Tier 1: Elite/First Round
Derrick Rose
Chris Paul
Russell Westbrook
Stephen Curry

You can argue – maybe – that Stephen Curry should be down in the next tier with D-Will, but the other three guys are all going to be gone in the first round. Three of the four are shoot-first type PGs who also manage to get a lot of assists, steals, and threes. That’s why they’re at the top. Then there’s Chris Paul, who is now playing with Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordon, and Caron Butler. Pick as many of these 4 as you can.

Tier 2: Second Round
Deron Williams

If Williams isn’t gone by the end of the second round, then either you’re in a 6 team league, or you need to find some better competition.

Tier 3: The Question Marks
Rajon Rondo
Raymond Felton
John Wall
Kyle Lowry
Jason Kidd

Is Rondo going to be in Boston? How much overweight is Raymond Felton, and are the Blazers so banged up that he becomes a top 3 option on that team? Will John Wall continue to turn the ball over as much as the Kardashian sisters make the covers of gossip magazines? (Kourtney’s pregnant; Khloe can’t have kids; Kim still has a giant ass; apparently Kris was a giant ass) Will Kevin Martin be out of Houston and leave the missile codes in Kyle Lowry’s locker? (Get it? Get it?) Will Jason Kidd replace more body parts with custom bionic components or will he buy off the shelf robot parts that need oil and perhaps plutonium and don’t come with a heart?

Whatever the answer to these questions, we at GMTR believe that these guys will produce at a Top 40 level.

Tier 4: The Should Have Been Tier 3 Guys
Mike Conley
Tyreke Evans
Steve Nash

These 3 have the potential to be as good or better than the guys in the tier above them (except Rondo). But they could also fall off (Conley) or struggle to work with the pieces around them (Evans, Nash). Still, no one’s going to fault you for taking any of them.

Tier 5: The Gotta Take a Point Guard Point Guards
Brandon Jennings
Chauncey Billups

Jennings assists are pretty low for a PG and his FG% is horrible. That’s not to say the guys above him are all Dead-eye Dan from Distanceville… but 15 shots at 39% is not going to do you any favors. The turnovers aren’t great either for someone who only averages 4.5 assists per game.

Billups on the other hand has proven himself time and time again. And the trade for CP3 (which included trading away Eric Gordon) coming on the heels of Billups’s signing leads me to believe that Billups will play a significant role on the Clippers team. Of course, that’s all just speculative fiction right now.

Tier 6: Upside Potential
Jrue Holiday
Ty Lawson

Both of these guys have significant upside. I hate to doubt Patrick’s magnificent statistical model, but I feel like the projections we have for Holiday are low and that he should end up with 14 points and 6+ assists, which I think would get him close to Top 50 territory.

Ty Lawson should be handling the pick axe for the Nuggets to start the season and while most people seem to be talking about Arron Afflalo, Lawson has just as much upside as his SG sidekick (or either of the new SG/SFs the Nuggets acquired). He’ll be on a short leash, though, since the Nuggets have the veteran Andre Miller to come in if things start to get out of control. But with 30+ minutes a game, Lawson could get up to 16 and 7 for points and assists even with Rudy Fernandez and Corey Brewer trying to prove they have a spot in the NBA.

Tier 6: Upside Downside
Jeff Teague
Mo Williams
Louis Williams
Tony Parker
Rodney Stuckey
Jose Calderon
Devin Harris

These are all guys who could blow up, or fizzle out. I am a Jeff Teague believer and I’m not the only one. But does that mean it’s going to happen? Tracy McGrady certainly makes it a bit harder to Teague to be the dominator he was in the playoffs last year.

Tier 7: Reaching for the Stars
Toney Douglas
Baron Davis
Kyrie Irving
Kemba Walker
Darren Collison
Ricky Rubio
Jameer Nelson
D.J. Augustin

A lot of people are probably going to reach for some of these guys. Toney Douglas might be money, but remember he’s playing with two guys who want to do nothing but score. Baron Davis might be out 8-10 weeks with a back injury (or he might be faking it to try to get to a team that’s over the cap – to which I say: someone just sign him to a minimum contract to make sure that he can’t go to the Lakers or Heat).

Darren Collison probably deserves to move up here, but I haven’t been able to redo the tiers with updated rankings. I will focus on doing that instead of writing another one of these dumb articles.

Tier 8: Pray to the Basketball Gods
Gilbert Arenas
Luke Ridnour
Mario Chalmers
Jordan Farmar

If you’re taking one of these guys and planning to actually play them, you might be in trouble.

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Give Me The Rock: 2011 Fantasy Basketball Draft Guide – This is where we’ve collected (or at least tried to collect) all the 2011 fantasy basketball information that you’ll need to hit the drafts HAM this weekend.

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There are as many draft strategies out there as Lindsay Lohan court appearances, but the one I’ve grown particularly fond of recently is drafting for percentages. The tough thing about this strategy is that it requires the ability focus in on a particular set of players during and after a draft and completely ignore others, but I swear it seems to work for me more than any other strategy I’ve tried.

Now I’ve discussed effective percentages what seems like ad nauseum on GMTR, but it’s the concept of adjusting a player’s shooting percentages by the number of shots that they take compared to league average. This allows an apple-to-apples comparison between players by imagining what would happen if they all took the same number of shots.

Kevin Durant may have shot 88% from the line last season, but since he took 8.7 free throws a game, it’s the fantasy equivalent of him hitting 100% of his free throws if he only took the league average number. Similarly, a guy like Steve Nash shoots a higher percentage from the line than Durant, but has less of an overall effect on a fantasy team since he only averages about 3 free throws a game.

Confusing? Maybe. But here is a list of effective percentages for the 2010-11 season if you want to check it out.

***

The main reason to draft for percentages is because it’s the best way injury-proof your team. While the other standard statistical categories used in fantasy basketball leagues (points, rebounds, etc) are counting stats, percentages are ratio stats. It doesn’t matter how many free throws your team takes, just what percentage of those shots they make. Your fantasy team somehow went 1 for 1 from the line for the week? Great, you win that category.*

So while injuries may chip away at your fantasy team in the counting categories, they have much less of an effect on the percentage categories (unless you happen to replace your efficient scorer with a chucker while he’s injured). When players have nagging injuries causing them to miss a game or two during the week, it’s going to hurt your point and rebound totals, but those percentage categories won’t necessarily be affected.

And in the inevitable case where your team completely blows out with injuries, you can use the FG%, FT% and TO categories as a life preserver until your team gets healthy again. Going 3-6 on the week in an H2H league isn’t great, but at least it spares you the embarrassment of a couple 0-9 or 1-8 weeks.

Percentages are just two categories out of 8 or 9, so they should not be the primary factor you use when drafting a player. The goal is still to rack up more points, rebounds and assists than anyone else. But when you are deciding between two equally good players, try using their shooting efficiency as a tie breaker. To help me do that, I like to group players into three categories during a draft.

Group A: The plus efficiency guys. Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, Dirk Nowitzki, etc.

Group B. They won’t kill you. Includes most of the league. Think LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.

Group C. The category killers. Dwight Howard, Demarcus Cousins, Trevor Ariza.

The goal using this strategy is to pull as many guys from group A as possible during a draft. However, there will be times based on the position of the draft or your team need where you’ll have to dig into the group B pool of players, which is fine. Of course, avoiding players in Group C is absolutely necessarily if you want to draft for percentages.

***

So, what does the start of an efficiency-based draft look like?

You have the 1st pick in the draft: Kevin Durant

It’s the easiest decision that you’ll have to make in any draft. In addition to being an all around fantasy beast, Durant is the league’s second best free throw shooter (only Kevin Martin was better last year), hitting 88% of 8.7 free throws a game he took in 2011-12. His FG% is right around league average, which isn’t great, but it’s acceptable given his position and the fact that he scores nearly 30 points a game.

Follow it up with: A high FG% guy like Lamarcus Aldridge or Al Horford.

You have a mid-first round draft pick: Chris Paul/Kevin Love

Paul was briefly traded to the Lakers last night before several owners cried to the commissioner and the trade was blocked. From a fantasy perspective, it would have been nice to see Paul running with talented scorers like Kobe and Bynum (no offense Trevor Ariza), but even on the Hornets or mystery team X, Paul is going to make his magic happen. Paul was a 50% shooter from the floor before last season’s down year, plus he shot 88% from the line to go along with 10 assists a game.

With Love, his 47% shooting and 85% from line are just gravy on top of an insane 20 and 15 per game scoring/rebounding averages. He may not bring the blocks of Dwight Howard, but not too many guys in the league will let you lock up the rebounding category while also contributing positively in percentages.

Follow it up with: A big man like Aldridge, Al Jefferson or Horford for Paul. Love probably has the toughest pairing here. You could go big again with one of the guys above, or draft a scorer like Carmelo Anthony (who was surprisingly efficient once he joined the Knicks) or Rudy Gay. A PG in this spot would be tough to come by.

You have a late-first round draft pick: Stephen Curry/Pau Gasol/Dirk Nowitzki/Amare Stoudemire

Picking at or near the turn in a draft gives you the most flexibility when building a team. Since PGs and Cs are always at a premium, why not grab one who is a plus in the percentages categories? Ok, Dirk doesn’t qualify at center, but Gasol and Amare will in most leagues. Amare is the riskiest play here both in terms of health and how he’s going to mesh long term with Melo, but if he falls to the second round a Curry/Amare pairing would be a great 1-2 combo.

Like Paul, Curry is a plus guy at both percentage categories, which is amazing since he also hit 2 threes a game last year. He took the least number of free throws out of any first rounder last season (only 3.1 per game), but he hit them at a 94% clip, which is good for an effective FT% of 90%.

Follow it up with: Stephen Curry/Pau Gasol/Dirk Nowitzki/Amare Stoudemire/Carmelo Anthony

There is nothing wrong with getting your two bigs out of the way in the first two rounds, but the real prize here would be coming away with Curry in one of these spots.

As you move down the draft

There are good percentage guys at just about any spot in the draft if you look hard enough. After the second round, Steve Nash is a guy to target if you need a PG. Chris Bosh, David Lee, David West, Elton Brand and Brook Lopez all big men who can hit the free throw. Paul Pierce and Ray Allen are old, but they are some of the best all-around percentage guys in the league. In terms of young players, Serge Ibaka is decent from the line for a big man, Demar Derozan was a plus-plus percentages guy in 82 games for the Raptors, Wesley Matthews had decent percentages for a SG last year and Nicolas Batum is an efficient player with some breakout potential this season.

*Unless your league has a minimum requirement for shots taken

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