Give Me The Rock

I lied. My favorite time of year is actually Talk Like a Pirate Day. But the NBA preseason is fun and it gives us the first glimpses into the upcoming year. I’m so excited that I ran the preseason stats for the entire league through our player rater and calculated rankings for everyone who played in at least one game. The list that follows is the top 100 players during the preseason on a per game basis (note that Jason Kidd has only played one game, for example). Of course, don’t take too much stock in these numbers (small sample sizes apply as do guys sitting out of games and not ready for prime time rotations), but it is possible that a few of these players will continue their performance during the regular season. And as Bill Belichick taught me, every little advantage counts.

I’ll breakdown some of the over/under performing players a little later. Until then, enjoy the list.

Rank/Player/Rating/Games
1. Monta Ellis (6.4) - 2 games
2. Marcus Camby (5.2) - 3 games
3. Gerald Wallace (4.9) - 7 games
4. Dwight Howard (4.7) - 6 games
5. Rudy Gay (4.7) - 6 games
6. Allen Iverson (4.3) - 6 games
7. Kevin Garnett (4.2) - 6 games
8. Manu Ginobili (4.2) - 4 games
9. Martell Webster (3.8) - 7 games
10. Vince Carter (3.8) - 5 games
11. Shawn Marion (3.5) - 8 games
12. Dirk Nowitzki (3.1) - 6 games
13. Amare Stoudemire (3) - 2 games
14. Joe Johnson (2.9) - 7 games
15. Lamarcus Aldridge (2.9) - 6 games
16. Corey Maggette (2.8) - 6 games
17. Ronnie Brewer (2.7) - 7 games
18. Kevin Martin (2.7) - 7 games
19. Steve Nash (2.7) - 8 games
20. Baron Davis (2.5) - 4 games
21. Josh Childress (2) - 6 games
22. Chris Paul (1.8) - 8 games
23. Chris Wilcox (1.8) - 7 games
24. Josh Smith (1.7) - 8 games
25. Al Jefferson (1.5) - 7 games
26. Kelenna Azubuike (1.5) - 5 games
27. Andrei Kirilenko (1.4) - 7 games
28. Carmelo Anthony (1.3) - 5 games
29. Jermaine O’neal (1.2) - 3 games
30. Jason Kidd (1.2) - 1 games
31. Jason Richardson (1.1) - 6 games
32. Chris Kaman (0.8) - 6 games
33. Leandro Barbosa (0.8) - 6 games
34. Paul Pierce (0.7) - 6 games
35. Eduardo Najera (0.7) - 4 games
36. Carlos Delfino (0.7) - 4 games
37. Andre Iguodala (0.7) - 7 games
38. Mike Dunleavy (0.6) - 8 games
39. T.J. Ford (0.2) - 4 games
40. Andrea Bargnani (0.1) - 4 games
41. Delonte West (0.1) - 4 games
42. Rashad Mccants (0) - 5 games
43. Anthony Roberson (0) - 5 games
44. Andris Biedrins (0) - 2 games
45. Travis Outlaw (-0.1) - 7 games
46. Jamaal Tinsley (-0.1) - 7 games
47. Kevin Durant (-0.1) - 6 games
48. Kobe Bryant (-0.2) - 6 games
49. J.J. Redick (-0.3) - 5 games
50. Andre Miller (-0.3) - 7 games
51. Hilton Armstrong (-0.3) - 8 games
52. Grant Hill (-0.4) - 8 games
53. Bostjan Nachbar (-0.5) - 6 games
54. Al Horford (-0.5) - 8 games
55. Mo Williams (-0.5) - 6 games
56. Damon Stoudamire (-0.5) - 4 games
57. James Jones (-0.5) - 2 games
58. Brad Miller (-0.6) - 7 games
59. Josh Howard (-0.7) - 7 games
60. Boris Diaw (-0.7) - 7 games
61. Brent Barry (-0.7) - 5 games
62. Linas Kleiza (-0.8) - 6 games
63. Ricky Davis (-0.8) - 6 games
64. Marvin Williams (-0.9) - 8 games
65. Chauncey Billups (-0.9) - 6 games
66. Luke Ridnour (-1) - 7 games
67. Hedo Turkoglu (-1) - 6 games
68. Brandon Bass (-1) - 8 games
69. Andrew Bynum (-1.1) - 7 games
70. Ray Allen (-1.1) - 7 games
71. Jarrett Jack (-1.1) - 7 games
72. Daniel Gibson (-1.2) - 4 games
73. Theo Ratliff (-1.2) - 5 games
74. Al Harrington (-1.2) - 5 games
75. Jordan Farmar (-1.3) - 7 games
76. Al Thornton (-1.3) - 8 games
77. David Lee (-1.5) - 6 games
78. Carlos Boozer (-1.5) - 4 games
79. Mike Bibby (-1.5) - 7 games
80. Earl Watson (-1.5) - 6 games
81. Deron Williams (-1.5) - 7 games
82. Raja Bell (-1.6) - 8 games
83. Chris Duhon (-1.6) - 7 games
84. Louis Williams (-1.6) - 7 games
85. Ike Diogu (-1.6) - 8 games
86. J.R. Smith (-1.7) - 6 games
87. Shane Battier (-1.7) - 6 games
88. Lebron James (-1.7) - 7 games
89. Wally Szczerbiak (-1.7) - 6 games
90. Darius Washington (-1.7) - 6 games
91. Jose Calderon (-1.8) - 4 games
92. Sam Cassell (-1.8) - 6 games
93. Troy Hudson (-1.8) - 4 games
94. Tyrus Thomas (-2) - 7 games
95. Damien Wilkins (-2) - 7 games
96. Anthony Parker (-2) - 4 games
97. Charlie Villanueva (-2) - 8 games
98. Rajon Rondo (-2) - 8 games
99. Juan Dixon (-2.1) - 4 games
100. Francisco Garcia (-2.1) - 7 games

I’m a homer. Here’s proof:

That Big Green Line is the Chicago Basketball Bulls. In my four leagues this season, I drafted 7 Bulls, which is 3 more than I took from any other team. What can you glean from this? Well, I’ll let you know at the end of the season when I see how my bullish teams do.

Other info you can get includes:
1. Teams with no players drafted by me: Kings, Cleveland, Milwaukee, San Antonio, Denver, Minnesota.

And to help you understand that, here’s my explanation:

• Don’t draft Kings. Plain and simple. I have no faith in anyone on the Kings. I am not willing to risk my team by drafting any of them.
• Cleveland has one good player. If I had the chance to take him, I would have. So really, that’s just random luck. I wouldn’t take anyone else on the team, though.
• Milwaukee: I’m sure I thought about drafting Michael Redd. I don’t think I thought about drafting anyone else on the Bucks. I picked up Redd for my NBA 2K8 fantasy team.
• San Antone: Tim Duncan is good. He’s worth drafting if you can take the hit in FT%, and he’s the best player on the board. That was never the case for me in any of my leagues (this is more of a small sample size issue). I’m not convinced that Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli can be had in rounds where I feel they are appropriately valued.
• Minny: I could swear I drafted Al Jefferson in one of my leagues, but maybe it was just in some other mock draft or something. Weird. Other than Big Al, though, I just feel there’s too many question marks floating around the Wolves roster.

2. Highly drafted teams besides the Bulls:

Golden State, Seattle, Toronto

• Golden State: These were mostly late round picks for guys like Monta Ellis (who I’m not completely sold on, but took him in my first two drafts), Matt Barnes, and Marco Belinelli.
• Seattle: For some reason, I took Kevin Durant, Nick Collison, and Delonte West all on one team. Maybe not such a good idea. Picked up Jeff Green late in another league.
• Toronto: Took Jorge Garbajosa twice and Andrea Bargnani twice. I almost had Bargnani 3 times. I did not pick Chris Bosh. Take that for what you will. I do feel like I got a good value with where I picked JG and AB.

Finally, here are the point guard and their crazy tiers. Previously, I’ve gone over shooting guards, small forwards, power forwards and centers. As always, you can find the tiers for all positions in the GMTR player tier spreadsheet.

Tier 1
Gilbert Arenas (PG) - 5
Steve Nash (PG) - 7

Very different players here, but both are strong first round picks. Nels said he was willing to go number one overall with Arenas, but I don’t believe he ever got the chance to back that statement up this year. I’m not quite that in love with Arenas – fifth overall sounds about right – with Nash following shortly thereafter.

Tier 2
Jason Kidd (PG) - 13
Chris Paul (PG) - 13

The tier two point guards are worthy of back-end first round or early second round picks. I may have publicly stated my preference for Jason Kidd, who has been healthier over the past two years, but I ended up with Chris Paul in two leagues and I’m ok with that decision.

Tier 3
Deron Williams (PG) - 27
Baron Davis (PG) - 28
Chauncey Billups (PG) - 32

Again, you’ve got three guys going around the same spot in drafts. It all depends on your style I guess. Do you want the young stud who is likely to improve, but doesn’t have the track record of the other two, the best of the three who always seems to kill fantasy teams with his injuries, or the consistently solid franchise guy who you can count on?

Tier 4
Kirk Hinrich (G) - 40
Leandro Barbosa (PG) - 46
Tony Parker (PG) - 51
Raymond Felton (G) - 52
Andre Miller (PG) - 57
Mo Williams (PG) - 58
Mike Bibby (PG) - 60
T.J. Ford (PG) - 64

Like the shooting guards, there is a lot of value in the mid-rounds for point guards. Hinrich is the best of the bunch, but I’d be happy with every single one of these guys. Bibby especially seems to be flying under the radar and could bounce back after a somewhat disappointing year.

Tier 5
Stephon Marbury (PG) - 74
Rajon Rondo (G) - 80
Jameer Nelson (PG) - 83
Mike Conley Jr. (G) - 93

Tier five gets a little risky, with Marbury, Rondo, and Conley as picks who may or may not have good years. Damon Stoudamire is still the starter in Memphis, but Conley has been playing well this preseason, so much so that he started the in the Grizzlies last game. Just so you know, Rondo averaged 13 points, 6 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 2.5 steals per game over the last month of the Celtics season. I’m just sayin’.

Tier 6
Jarrett Jack (PG) - 100
Chucky Atkins (PG) - 102
Jamaal Tinsley (PG) - 110
Devin Harris (PG) - 115
Rafer Alston (PG) - 119
Acie Law IV (G) - 120
Brevin Knight (PG) - 135
Sam Cassell (PG) - 135
Derek Fisher (PG) - 137
Jose Calderon (PG) - 140
Luke Ridnour (PG) - 150
Earl Watson (PG) - 155
Mike James (PG) - 169
Earl Boykins (PG) - ND
Jannero Pargo (PG) - ND
Jason Williams (PG) - ND
Steve Blake (PG) - ND
Chris Duhon (PG) - ND
Javaris Crittenton (G) - ND
Nate Robinson (G) – ND

Alright, I admit I just threw a bunch of guys into tier six because I’m lazy. The one thing they do have in common: there are no sure things here. Jarrett Jack is talented guy who had a nice little year in 2006-07, but he’s likely going to be splitting time with Steve Blake. Jamaal Tinsley racks up mad assists when healthy, but I’d be surprised if he can match the 72 games he played in last year. Looks like Chucky Atkins is losing his starting job to Allen Iverson, mostly because he’s been hurt this month. It only a matter of time before Brevin Knight takes over for the corpse of Sam Cassell, but he’s another guy who has had trouble staying healthy. Devin Harris is my sleeper du jour as it appears Dallas intends to make him more of a focal point in their offense.

With small forwards, power forwards and centers done, it’s time to take a look at shooting guards. As always, you can find the tiers for all positions in the GMTR player tier spreadsheet.

Tier 1
Kobe Bryant (SG) – 2

As much as I hate Kobe, he’s in a class by himself among shooting guards. Of course, there is always a chance he walks away from the Lakers to go play on Pluto, but don’t worry, chances are much better that he sticks around and continues to annoy us from LA for years to come.

Tier 2
Dwyane Wade (G) - 9
Allen Iverson (G) - 19
Ray Allen (SG) - 26
Vince Carter (GF) - 23

When healthy, Wade can come close to matching Kobe in terms of fantasy value, but his shoulder injury will keep him out to start the season and that drops him into the second tier. There is some uncertainty around Ray Allen and what his role will be on the Celtics, but if he can put up anything close to his career averages, he’ll be a steal in the late second round. Vince Carter just signed a new contract this summer. The last time he did that, things didn’t work out so well for the Raptors.

Tier 3
Gerald Wallace (F) - 29
Tracy McGrady (GF) - 33
Michael Redd (GF) - 33
Joe Johnson (G) - 34

I considered combining tiers two and three because there is not much separating them. But, Gerald Wallace and his style of play frightens me a little, Tracy McGrady and his back scares me a whole lot, and Redd and Johnson are just a notch below the guys in tier two.

Tier 4
Brandon Roy (G) - 41
Kevin Martin (SG) - 46
Manu Ginobili (SG) - 53
Jason Richardson (GF) - 53
Ricky Davis (GF) - 58
Monta Ellis (G) - 68
Ben Gordon (SG) - 61
Jason Terry (G) - 61

If you wait until the middle rounds to grab a shooting guard or two, you won’t be disappointed. Some crazy value in this tier – I particularly like Martin (don’t overlook those percentages), Richardson (new team and healthy right now), and Ricky Davis (besides him and Jefferson, who else is going to score).

Tier 5
Stephen Jackson (GF) - 81
Richard Hamilton (SG) - 82
Randy Foye (G) - 84
Kyle Korver (SF) - 87
Raja Bell (SG) - 98
Jamal Crawford (SG) – 103
Matt Carroll (GF) - ND

Based upon the Adam Morrison injury, I’m bumping Carroll up from tier six to five. He’s a good late round sleeper and, if you’ve already drafted, grab him off waivers if you’ve got the space. Tier five had got a good mix of established vets that are going to deliver exactly what you expect, like Hamilton and Jackson, and some nice upside guys, like Foye and Carroll.

Tier 6
Anthony Parker (GF) - 105
Delonte West (G) - 105
Marco Belinelli (G) - 116
Steve Francis (PG) - 119
Corey Brewer (F) - 122
Larry Hughes (G) - 126
Cuttino Mobley (SG) - 127
Charlie Bell (GF) - 136
Luther Head (G) - 163
Jason Kapono (GF) - ND
John Salmons (GF) - ND
DeShawn Stevenson (SG) - ND
Rasual Butler (GF) - ND
James Posey (GF) – ND
Wally Szczerbiak (GF) - ND

The funny thing about shooting guards, since much of their value is derived from, you know, scoring, they kind of fall off the map pretty fast. Unless they are particularly good at something else, like threes or steals, no one really wants a backup shooting guard who averages 12 points a game. But there’s a little something to be found here: Anthony Parker did average 12 points a game last year for the Raptors, but he’ll be starting and should improve; in the past Delonte West has racked up the stats when he’s gotten playing time; Corey Brewer has looked good so far in the preseason for the Wolves; and Marco Belinelli can shoot the three, if you’re team is in need of that kind of thing.

SLAM Online reports that Adam Morrison is out with a torn ACL. Out for the season.

Might be a good time to see if Matt Carroll is available. Also, if for some reason your league hasn’t drafted yet, I’d say move Walter Herrmann (sleeper candidate extraordinaire) up your charts a bit.

I’ve gone through the power forward and center tiers. Now it’s time for the small forwards. As always, you can find the tiers for all positions in the GMTR player tier spreadsheet.

Tier 1
LeBron James (SF) – 4

James is in a small forward league by himself. He finished last season ranked in the 20’s on the player rater, but that was solely due to his horrible free throw percentage. Can he improve that that this year? It’s the only thing holding him back from being the best fantasy player in the league.

Tier 2
Josh Smith (GF) - 16
Andre Iguodala (GF) - 17
Paul Pierce (GF) - 24
Rashard Lewis (SF) - 21
Carmelo Anthony (SF) - 26

A lot of different types of players in this tier. Smith’s percentages are horrible, but he is a rebounding and blocking machine. Iguodala is the man on the Sixers and will be one of the league leaders in steals. Pierce and Anthony are a great source of points, while Lewis averaged 2.5 threes a game last season.

Tier 3
Caron Butler (SF) - 32
Kevin Durant (GF) - 43
Josh Howard (GF) - 47
Ron Artest (SF) - 48
Mike Miller (GF) - 51
Luol Deng (GF) - 52

Much more so than power forwards and centers, the third small forward tier delivers some real studs like Bulter, Howard, Miller, and Deng. Durant is a wildcard, but he’s been basically been given the reigns of the Sonics, so the points, rebounds, and assists should be there for him. Artest is insane and has already been suspended for the first 7 games of the season, but hey, if everything else works out…

Tier 4
Andrei Kirilenko (F) - 66
Danny Granger (F) - 68
Corey Maggette (GF) - 77
Richard Jefferson (SF) - 81
Rudy Gay (GF) - 80

Tier four contains three guys looking to bounce back from off years and two young guys who should take big steps up this season. But only one of these guys gets a free poon card once a year.

Tier 5
Josh Childress (GF) - 79
Tyrus Thomas (F) - 92
Andres Nocioni (F) - 99
Peja Stojakovic (GF) - 100
Morris Peterson (GF) - 101
Tayshaun Prince (SF) - 105
Shane Battier (SF) - 114
Walter Herrmann (F) - 120
Mike Dunleavy (GF) - 131
Marvin Williams (GF) - 133

I put Childress in tier five because he’s not going to be starting this season. He’s always been the type of guy who needs a lot of minutes (35+) to get his. Walter Herrmann was a stud at the end of last season and his stock is rising now that Sean May is done for the season. Peja’s back is still hurting him, but if you’re up for the risk, there is always the chance he could be a top 50 player again. And I like Nocioni this year for some reason that I can’t explain.

Tier 6
Jeff Green (F) - 110
Luke Walton (SF) - 121
Travis Outlaw (F) - 135
Quentin Richardson (GF) - 135
Hedo Turkoglu (GF) - 150
Grant Hill (GF) - 150
Gerald Green (GF) - 157
Matt Harpring (GF) - ND
Jerry Stackhouse (GF) - ND
Ruben Patterson (F) - ND
Matt Barnes (SF) - ND
Adam Morrison (GF) - ND

Someone out of tier six is going to break out this season, but your guess is as good as mine as to who that is going to be. Jeff Green is going to get big minutes on a young Seattle team. Luke Walton racks up the all round stats… when he’s healthy. Travis Outlaw could be a good source of steals, blocks and points, but I don’t think the minutes are going to be there this year. Q-Rich was also good when healthy last year. Dare I mention the name Grant Hill? He’s looked good in the preseason.

I’ve already discussed centers, now it’s time to move on to some other very large men who spend a lot of time in the post - power forwards. Note that in the write-up about centers, I pretty much included everyone who qualified as a center in Yahoo leagues, like Paul Gasol, Carlos Boozer, and Boris Diaw. That plan worked fine for the centers, but since about half the league would qualify at the forward and shooting guard positions, I’m switching gears for these remaining posts. For the guard and forward posts, I’ve slotted everyone in to their “natural” positions – if such a thing exists. For example, Yahoo considers Andrei Kirilenko and Danny Granger as power forwards, but their more natural position is small forward. So, you won’t see them in this list.

Since so many players qualify at multiple positions (at least in Yahoo leagues – CBS Sports and NBA.com are much more stringent), I’ve updated the GMTR player tier spreadsheet to include all the positions that a player is eligible in for Yahoo leagues. So, even through Boris Diaw is listed under the power forward column, you can see in the spreadsheet that he also qualifies as a center.*

Tier 1
Kevin Garnett (F) - 3
Shawn Marion (F) - 3
Dirk Nowitzki (PF) – 5

You can’t go wrong with any of the three guys in tier one. I’m partial to Garnett myself, because I think he’s going to be rejuvenated on the Celtics and Marion’s future with the Suns is a little uncertain. But they’re all mid to top first round picks.

Tier 2
Chris Bosh (FC) - 13
Pau Gasol (FC) - 14
Tim Duncan (FC) - 16
Carlos Boozer (FC) - 27

Somehow, Tim Duncan qualifies as a center in Yahoo leagues, even though he only started in about2-3 games a center last season. That’s so unbelievable that I left him out of the center rankings. Bosh, Gasol, and Boozer also appear in the center tier post and they’re all pretty damn good.

Tier 3
Antawn Jamison (F) - 42
Lamar Odom (F) - 55
Rasheed Wallace (PF) - 57
David West (PF) - 58
Zach Randolph (PF) - 62

There’s a pretty big drop off between tier two and tier three. Tier two guys should all be gone by the early third round by the latest, while the first tier three guy shouldn’t go until the fourth/fifth. I think Jamison has been going a little early in mock drafts, he’s been missing a few more games every year since he joined the Wizards.

Tier 4
Andrea Bargnani (FC) - 77
Al Harrington (FC) - 81
David Lee (F) - 102
Paul Millsap (F) - 100
Boris Diaw (FC) - 109
Al Thornton (F) - 106
Al Horford (FC) - 106

There is a lot stuff to like in tier four. The rookie Al’s stock have been rising in the preseason. Thornton scored 23 points against the Suns on Saturday and Horford scored 22 against the Bobcats last Thursday. I usually try not to put much stock in the preseason, but for some reason those numbers make me feel good. David Lee was so good last season that he might be worth a pick simply to see if he can get the same amount of minutes he did last year. If Millsap can get the minutes (no guarantee behind Boozer), he could be a top 50 player.

Tier 5
Charlie Villanueva (F) - 114
Drew Gooden (PF) - 119
Chris Wilcox (FC) - 120
Nick Collison (FC) - 123
Jorge Garbajosa (FC) - 136
Hakim Warrick (F) - 135
Tim Thomas (F) - 144

If you’re in need of a back end power forward in a draft, any one of these guys should do. None have significant breakout potential like the guys in tier four, although Villanueva is a decent buy low who could bounce back this year and Gooden is young enough to keep improving for the Cavs.

Tier 6
Antonio McDyess (PF) - 118
Ryan Gomes (F) - 124
Udonis Haslem (PF) - 144
Channing Frye (FC) - 143
Yi Jianlian (PF) - 142
Kenyon Martin (PF) - 156
Sean May (PF) - 152
Anderson Varejao (FC) - ND
Juwan Howard (F) - ND
Chuck Hayes (F) - ND
Eduardo Najera (F) - ND

Like the centers, tier six power forwards should only be drafted in the deepest of leagues. As of this moment, McDyess should be starting for the Pistons, but he’s only been averaging 20-ish minutes a game for the past couple of years. Gomes is a solid player who could get some big minutes for the Wolves. Yi Jianlian has had a pretty good preseason, although I’m not ready to believe in him quite yet. I’m not a big Drew Gooden fan, so I like Anderson Varejao as a deep sleeper in roto leagues. For guy who was a top 50 fantasy player a couple years ago, Kenyon Martin hasn’t been getting a lot of respect.

*One reason why player positions are retarded in fantasy: Boris Diaw who basically plays every position for the Phoenix Suns, qualifies only at center and power forward in Yahoo leagues. Yet, the Yahoo depth chart has Diaw listed as a small forward on the Suns team page. So, which one is it Yahoo?