Sortable Stats. Haven’t had time to look at this. Not sure if it’s going to be free forever, or locked away behind the Iron Curtain of Money after the NBA.com’s two week trial is over.
Overrated and Underrated players. I agree with pretty much everything here, except this:
I find that people don’t like to touch their teams for about a week after that wonderful draft night.
I’ve already been offered/ing trades during the draft - granted our draft has lasted for 9 days (only 5 picks left!) - but when I was in public leagues as well… no one waited. The trades, ridiculous and otherwise, started pouring in as soon as the draft results page was up.
And since I haven’t posted anything of fantasy relevance lately… let me just link to some other NBA blog that might be of use.
NBA Source:
5 Fascinating Match-Ups
*Note: Since nobody gives a crap about preseason games, let’s look at some significant positional battles going on.
1. Juwan Howard vs Stromile Swift - Houston’s Starting Power Forward
Everyone surmised that Swift would simply inherit the role after Houston signed him this summer, but people have forgotten that Howard was playing very well (12.0 PPG, 7.9 RPG in February and March) up until he had to call it quits due to a knee injury. This should be Swift’s job since he complements Yao’s game far better than Howard does, but Jeff Van Gundy isn’t going to just pull the carpet from under Juwan– Swift is going to have to show a level of consistency and toughness that we saw only brief glimpses of in Memphis.
2. Kenny Thomas vs Shareef Abdur-Rahim - Sacramento’s Starting Power Forward
Much like the Houston power forward situation, nobody expected Thomas to hold onto his starting spot once Geoff Petrie inked Shareef Abdur-Rahim to a deal. Why not? Thomas was straight-up solid for Sacramento after the trade that sent him over from Philly (14.5 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 2.9 APG). Abdur-Rahim has actually said publicly that he’s not going to openly lobby for the starting job which raises even more questions for someone that has been scrutinzed his entire career for lacking a killer instinct. ‘Reef is definitely the better player than Thomas, but neither the Kings nor ‘Reef himself is going to benefit unless he takes some initiative.
3. Rasual Butler vs Bostjan Nachbar - New Orleans’ Starting Small Forward
This isn’t exactly your front page headline battle, although both players have looked good thus far in the preseason and the competition is reportedly as close as they come. Butler comes over from Miami where he was used almost exclusively as a spot-up shooter, but he’s trying to show Byron Scott he’s more versatile than that (39 Minutes, 7-14 FG, 19 Points, 11 Rebounds, 2 Steals, 2 Blocks). Nachbar has been equally impressive (41 Minutes, 10-16 FG, 4-9 3PT, 27 Points), but he’s solely a scorer and just can’t play the hustle or defense that Butler can. Butler gets the edge.
4. Desmond Mason vs Bobby Simmons - Milwaukee’s Starting Small Forward
Mason stepped into the starting lineup permanently last season after the Bucks shipped Keith Van Horn off to Dallas and he played the best basketball of his career (18.4 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.8 APG after the All-Star Break). Mace should face some stiff competition from the Bucks’ big free agent acquistition, Bobby Simmons, who also happens to be the reigning ‘Most Improved Player’. Simmons is the superior shooter and a better defensive player, but Mason’s slashing style probably complements Michael Redd a little better. Look for Mason to begin the season in the starting lineup, for Simmons to compete for 6th Man of the Year, and for both to almost always be on the floor when the game is on the line.
5. Derek Anderson vs David Wesley - Houston’s Starting Shooting Guard
Wesley started the first and third games with DA starting the second, so it’ll be interesting to see if Jeff Van Gundy keeps alternating when the Rockets play Seattle tonight. Van Gundy loves Wesley’s shooting touch and leadership, so I’m guessing that to start the season, he’ll remain in the starting lineup. But come 4th quarter, it might be difficult for JVG to play Wesley ahead of the bigger, more versatile Anderson.
These are the kinds of situations that people want to see figured out before the draft… unfortunately, that doesn’t seem likely. I’ve Derek Anderson in my draft queue right now (we’re up to the 12th round) since I don’t have that much faith in the skills of David Wesley when pitted against a healthy Derek Anderson.
As for the others:
1. Strom
2. Shareef
3. So what?
4. Simmons
5. Sanderson
Just wanted to round it out with 5 S’s there.
ESPN.com - NBA - Suns’ Stoudemire out four months after surgery
The Phoenix Suns will be without All-Star forward Amare Stoudemire for about four months after he underwent microfracture surgery to repair damage to his injured left knee on Tuesday.
The injury turned out to be far worse than the Suns had hoped when they announced on Monday that team doctor Thomas Carter would perform what was termed “diagnostic” surgery.
Ouch. Amare is at 6.69 on the ESPN live draft board right now… watch that plummet.
Anyone have an arguement for why anyone should even take Stoudemire now? I’d say he’s worth an 11th or 12th round pick if you are solid at C. Should give you a boost for the end of the season… but you’ll have to be in a position to take advantage of that.
This is not just a blow to fantasy owners who picked Stoudemire in the first round, but to the sport of basketball in general. Of course, the biggest hurt is put on the Suns who’s lineup is lookng more than anemic. Joe Johnson’s Hawks might have a better chance at the playoffs now. Yes, this is a sad day for the 2005-06 basketball season.
I almost feel like I should be in a quiet period since my draft starts on Monday (it feels like an IPO or something…), but this is too important to pass up.
Drop the Dime has some news about Amare’s knee.
In a story that caught most fantasy owners completely off guard, it was reported late on Friday that Amare Stoudemire has a knee injury that may cause him to have arthrosopic surgery before the season begins. The knee had been “troublesome” all summer, but yesterday it got worse.
Reportedly, Amare hobbled through the morning practice on Friday, and then skipped the later session to meet with Dr. Tom Carter, the team’s head physician and a renowned orthopedic surgeon who specializes in knee problems. This sounds to me a lot like a pitcher going to have a visit with Dr. James Andrews, and that is not good.
Steve Nash hinted at the possible extent of the injury on Friday night, saying, “In an ideal world, if Amare is only out for a month, it might be good for us to get some of these guys to understand the system and play together and get some minutes and rest Amare’s legs.”
Yeah, a month… ideally… that’s only like 16% of the season. Oops.
It wasn’t that I learned this lesson the hard way… it was more that I fought the law, and the law won. As such, I feel an important part of Draft Guide 2005 is to explain the difference and thereby the results of, picking a small-ball versus a big-ball fantasy basketball team. The following explanation and analysis is applicable to both H2H and Roto leagues that score based on categories as opposed to fantasy points. (It can be applicable in leagues that utilize fantasy points, but it might involve some equine transforms and double integrals)
First, let me go over the defintions so we’re all on the same page.
Small-Ball: This strategy consists of loading up on points guard types who will dominate categories like points, assists, steals, three-pointers and FT%. That right there is enough to get your 5 of 9 categories. That’s the idea. Small guys are good at those things, so it’s called “small-ball.”
Big-Ball: You’ve got the opposite of small-ball here. Load up your roster with big guys who will win Points, Rebounds, Blocks, FG%, and TOs (because they don’t really handle the ball).
First thing you’ll probably notice (if you think like me, that is) is that both of these strategies are trying to win points. Well, yes. There’s a ton of points going around the NBA (has something to do with scoring being the object of the game), so you can usually count on players trying to get some of that action. But, those same players are not going to try to get lots of rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks too. Well, some of them will. But most of them will focus on either rebounding and blocking, or assisting and stealing. It just so happens that those who are good at R&B have high FG percentages and low FT percentages. Those who focus on A&S are just the opposite. So, it all works out in the end. That is, it all works out if you know who fits into which category.
It’s kind of like sorting out your Magic cards into decks by color. You might not think to do it when you first start playing the game, but when you do figure it out, it’s like a revelation.
I’m sure someone wants to know if you should plan your strategy before the draft. I’d recommend against that. General fantasy draft knowledge says that you should pick the best player available for at least the first 2-3 rounds. If the best guy on the table fits with the Big Ball strategy, then that sort of throws the whole small-ball thing out the window, eh? Yeah…
Often, though, in the first two rounds, you can pick up guys who will fill in a lot of different categories. That’s usually why they’re in the first two rounds. Lebron, Dirk, Shawn… those kinds of guys give you greater flexbility in choosing your strategy. Other guys you’ll see in the first two rounds will be highly rated because they totally dominate a couple of categories. Garnett, Kirilenko, Iverson, Stoudemire. Don’t let the desire for flexibility prevent you from taking someone who can win you categories almost single-handedly. If you pick Garnett, and you prefer small-ball style players (just as a matter of personal preference), you can certainly trade him for a small baller (or five) after the draft.
That said, once you’re past the 3rd round, your strategy should be emerging. It might not be fully formed, and it shouldn’t guide your picks absolutely until after the 4th round, but if you have a faint glimmer of which strategy will fit best with your first 3 picks, it will help you decide between players who are close together in the rankings later on.
Mid-Ball?
Here’s my advice, don’t try for a Mid-Ball strategy. I did this last year just to see if I could do it. Disastrous. I was going for the combo of Points, Rebounds, Threes, and TOs. Right off the bat you can see that I don’t have 5 categories. I thought maybe I could pull out FG and FT percentage sometimes, but guys who get rebounds and shoot threes (while they are my favorite kind of players) do not shoot a high enough FG nor FT percentage consistently enough for you to win either of those categories. Only having 4 categories you can count on winning is like giving up on the first day of the season. Unless you’re a fan of the Toronto Raptors, you’re probably not cool with that strategy. There’s just such a precise pool of players required to make this strategy work, that it’s unlikely you’ll get all of them on your team. And when someone takes your guy right before your pick, the whole thing goes down the tuba. And tubas have pretty big holes.
Count it.
NBA.com’s Adam Madison came up with the Abso-fucking-lutely Brilliant headline: He’s the Manu for Your Fantasy Squad. I say that with more sarcasm than Isaiah Thomas has huge contracts. Why?
Well, maybe cause my feeble little mind came up with the same thing more than a year ago. In fact, it was SO more than a year ago, that I even had time to sit back, have a roast beef sandwich, make a big salad, and then reference it in my One Year Anniversary post. Okay, so his analysis is all good and everything, but if you’re going to have a serious article, don’t try to sexy it up by putting a lame pun in the title. And try using the words “blow up” more often.
In other news where I bitch about getting no respect as I seem to do when I get no respect… I switched to this address in April (6 months ago, aka 9 months after I called Manu the Manu) and Google still gives me no respect. So, let me just remind you that I’m giving you a FREE draft kit - including 476 players - which you can customize to your heart’s delight for Free. Did I mention it’s free?
