- Napoleon Dynamite

You might remember the GMTR mock draft from this past October. You know the one where Nels and I may or may not have a bet to be named later riding on the results. In fact, you probably printed out the mock draft and used it as the de facto source for your own fantasy league draft. I wouldn’t blame you. We have skills.

I’ll wait to the end of the season to do a full rundown of our draft’s highs and lows, but how are things looking today?

To recap, my teams are the odds and Nels’ are the evens. If you do the math things are very, very close as we approach the end of the season. Adding up all the teams’ points and I stand at 222, while Nels is at 218. By average spot, I’m at 5.4 and he’s at 5.6. Considering Nels just lost a bet in which the Celtics lost by eight points to the Bulls when they were getting 9.5, he may want to consider avoiding additional bets with me in the future.

Leading the mock draft league by a slim margin is Team 9, who have ridden Steve Nash, Ray Allen, Caron Butler, Rashard Lewis, and Mike Miller to the league lead in free throw percentage and threes. And how could that lineup not lead the league in threes? If this was a real league, Team 9 could have stood to trade away some of those threes a while back, as they currently lead the second place team by 140.

Team 9 is also towards the top of the league in assists, steals, and field goal percentage, showing that it is possible to lead your league in threes while still putting up a good field goal percentage (team 9 sits at 7.5 out of 10). I also had the skills or luck (let’s call it luck) to taken a chance on Amare Stoudemire in the third round. A risky third rounder going into the year, but it worked out. Finally for Team 9, Andrea Bargnani has been a surprisingly solid rookie for this team as a 12th round pick.

Right on Team 9′s ass is Team 4, led by Kevin Garnett, Vince Carter, Chauncey Billups, T.J. Ford, Mehmet Okur, and Ron Artest. Team 4 is also taking full advantage of Dwyane Wade’s injury by not only playing a rejuvenated Shaquille O’Neal, but getting some use out of a 35 minute a night Eddie Jones. All that adds up to the league lead in assists, second in points and threes, and third in free throw percentage and steals. Nels also had the skill or the luck (I’ll call this one skill) to draft Kevin Martin with a last round pick. Give him a Miller Lite, cause that was a good call.

The team with the fewest games lost to injury through this point in the season? Lucky 7, of course, with a total of 771 games played. Compare that to 679 for team 10 (thanks to Wally Szczerbiak, Pau Gasol, Michael Redd, Brevin Knight, Chris Paul, and Marvin Williams). Ouch.

The full recap will come after the mock draft champion is crowned, but here is a quick indication of how well we did. In a 10 team league, Out of the top 100 players, we missed 12 of them (meaning we left them undrafted). Out of the 50, we only missed one (Leandro Barbosa at 40). I have no brenchmark to compare that to, but it seems pretty decent.

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PRE is the preseason rank complied from a bunch of fantasy basketball sites and can be found here. CUR is the current GMTR player rank as of 1/29.

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2005/2006 Fantasy Rankings
(55) Kirk Hinrich
(92) Ben Gordon
(93) Andres Nocioni
(94) Luol Deng
(106) Chris Duhon
(239) Mike Sweetney
(316) Malik Allen
(419) Luke Schenscher

IN
(59) Ben Wallace
(121) P.J. Brown
(186) Adrian Griffin
(NA) Tyrus Thomas

OUT
(143) Tyson Chandler
(179) Darius Songaila

BUY

Kirk Hinrich – On the downside: his stats have pretty much flatlined since his rookie year. On the upside: he was still good for number 55 on the player rater last year and should be a solid #1 PG available in the mid rounds. And there’s always the chance he could take a big step forward and turn into something like a Steve Nash lite.

Luol Deng – Starter Alert! Deng seems to be getting a lot of love for a breakout year of sorts, or at least, nice sleeper material. Unlike some of the other Bulls, he did show (modest) improvement in most of his stats last year. Now he’ll be starting, he’s definitely worth taking a chance on this year.

Andres Nocioni – When you lose your starting job to PJ Brown, that’s not the best sign. Still, the potential is there – he finished last season ranked at 93 in only 27 minutes a game. So, even if he does come off the bench, he’ll get enough minutes to be a solid contributor.

HOLD

Ben Gordon – I’ve been a fan of Gordan since his days at UConn, however, like Hinrich, he’s another guy who didn’t improve much last year. Besides the 3′s (which have been very nice) and possibly points (this year) – his stats (42% on field goals, 2.7 rebs, 3 asts, 0.9 steals, and 0.1 blocks in 05/06) don’t exactly scream “draft me!”. He could be a good category specialist if you’re in need of 3′s and points – which seems a little high for a fifth rounder (sorry Nels) – I’d slot him more like a 8th – 10th rounder.

Ben Wallace – It should be no surprise what you’ll get from Wallace this year. His stats are starting on that downward slope, but he should still be good for over 10 rebounds and 2 blocks a game.

Chris Duhon – Won’t be starting, but someone’s got to backup Hinrich and Gordon.

SELL

P.J. Brown – I don’t care if he’s starting. He could average 48 minutes a game for the Bulls and I still wouldn’t want him anywhere near my fantasy team. Brown is easily the starting power forward for the Jeff Foster All Stars.

Mike Sweetney – Well, at least he made the 15 man roster.

WATCH

Just about everyone is predicting good things from the Bulls this season. Playoffs are all but guaranteed, and a trip deep into the playoffs is likely. I’m curious to see which one (or more) of the young guys is going to step up their game. This should be a fun year for Bulls fans.

Where We Drafted Em (Our 10 Team Mock Draft)*
Kirk Hinrich – 4th
Ben Wallace – 4th
Ben Gordon – 7th
Andres Nocioni – 8th
Luol Deng – 9th

* Although, it’s difficult for me to take credit for any of the above mentioned picks as Nels didn’t give me the chance to actually draft any Bulls during the mock draft.

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If you only have time to remember one important fact about the Knicks, make it this one: while their disappointing performance in real life is due to the fascinating work of Isiah Thomas, their disappointing fantasy performance was more Larry Brown than Thomas. His inconsistent and seemingly random rotations coupled with injuries caused just about every Knick to finish the season below expectations. In fact, they had the worst “best” player (Marbury) in the league last year. With Thomas at the helm, expect more consistency and a better showing from the Knicks’ core.

2005/2006 RANKINGS
(84) Stephon Marbury
(88) Jamal Crawford
(91) Steve Francis
(126) Channing Frye
(168) Eddy Curry
(174) Jalen Rose
(211) Qyntel Woods
(213) Nate Robinson
(230) Quentin Richardson
(252) Jackie Butler
(253) David Lee
(292) Malik Rose
(365) Jerome James

IN
(193) Jared Jeffries
(332) Kelvin Cato
(NA) Renaldo Balkman

OUT
No one important

BUY

Stephon Marbury – Last year, he had his worst season since 1996. Healthy now, he should bounce back to his old self and be a steal in the 5th round of a draft.

Steve Francis – It appears that he’ll be starting along with Marbury – which is a good sign for his value. I have him pegged as a solid sleeper candidate if you need a PG towards the end of a draft.

Channing Frye – Probably hurt the most by Larry Brown’s inconsistent rotations – he was solid when he played – and more consistent playing time should lead to a nice improvement over last.

HOLD

Jamal Crawford – Despite the hot finish to last season, he’ll be coming off the bench again this year. I do think he’ll get enough minutes to be worthy of a 10th or so round pick and a spot on your team.

SELL

Jared Jeffries – Had the starting job, but a wrist injury will put him on the shelf until December. This will likely give Quentin Richardson an extending opportunity to take Jeffries spot outright (see below).

Eddy Curry – Looks like a change of scenery wasn’t the answer.

Jalen Rose – He could be of some value on the right team, but the Knicks aren’t the right team. His 19 points a game in 04/05 already seems like forever ago.

WATCH

Quentin Richardson – Knickerblogger writes that Jeffries injury gives him an opportunity to step up and so far in the preseason he’s done just that.

Where We Drafted Em (Our 10 Team Mock Draft)
Stephon Marbury – 5th
Steve Francis – 10th
Channing Frye – 10th
Jamal Crawford – 11th
Eddy Curry – 13th
Jared Jeffries – DND (injury)

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Atlanta Hawk sophomore Marvin Williams has broken a metacarpal bone and is now out for the first two months of the year.

Two months is a long time to wait for a sleeper. That’s like a coma-style sleeper or something.

I’m pretty sure that everyone who drafted him is really mad now. I don’t mean that anyone needs to be kicking themselves, or wish that they’d picked someone else. M-Will looked like a pretty good candidate for a sleeper. There’s not a lot you can do when someone breaks their hand on October 26th and the season starts Oct 31st.

Pau Gasol is someone you can draft and wait two months (yes, even in Roto leagues). Marvin Williams’ 12 and 6 is not something for which you really need to wait. As Fantasy Bull Sports says, leave him on the wire. In Yahoo (and maybe some other sites) you can add him to your Watch List. Then when he starts posting numbers, you can see if it’s worth dropping someone else on your team.

The good news is for people who picked Josh Smith in the 2nd round; now he actually might get enough playing time be a 2nd round talent. If you managed to get him in the 3rd or even 4th round, he could be a steal. Y’know, if he just ups his steals just a bit.

One final note: If you really need a Williams in your lineup (I mean, who doesn’t?), Shelden Williams will be filling in for Marvin as the Hawks “Williams Sleeper Pick.”

And if anything, Hawks fans still have this to look forward to:

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I digress…

In case the Tiered Rankings over at Fantasy Basketblog weren’t enough to satisfy you (and what fantasy freak is ever satisfied), Yahoo is posting their rankings by position. Not as nicely tiered, but done by position nonetheless. Maybe this is more clear for some of you, maybe less for others. Either way, it is what it is.

When the Editorial Advisor at the San Diego State University Daily Aztec says he knows nothing about fantasy football and that his writing isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on, his basketball sleepers are definitely something you should check out. I’m quite sure that not all of the players he picked actually count as sleepers (some are really just undervalued players), but you can read it, as I did, nonetheless.

And then you too can say nonetheless twice in one post. Try it. It’s fun. And even if it isn’t fun for you, I did it nonetheless.

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I wrote a post about Yahoo’s O-Rank vs. Rank about a year and a half ago. It’s not exactly coherent, but the basic summary is this:

Rank is rankings based on data from the past season. O-Rank is a projected rank for the upcoming season. It’s sort of similar to the projects that The Sports Forecaster put together in their preview packet. Frankly, I wouldn’t rely on Yahoo’s Rank nor O-Rank. I think creating something like the GMTR Mock Draft Compilation Spreadsheet for yourself is the best way to get prepared for your fantasy draft.

Of course, another way to go is to use Yahoo’s O-Rank, but recognize it’s deficienies and rememdy that by picking the players you’ll probably want to pick up in the later round (probaby 7-13) in your draft. The first 2 rounds are usually pretty easy, and 3-6 aren’t too bad since you at least know most of the names. I find that it’s around 7 where I look at the rankings and say to myself “I don’t really want any of those guys on my team.” That’s why it’s good to know who you want to draft at that point before you even get there. Yeah, it takes more work that way. But if you want to win (at anything) it’s going to take more work than it does for the guy who isn’t going to win.

Now get to work!

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Much as they did last year, the NBA is hosting another NBA Cares Celebrity Basketball League. Bill Simmons is back, with his collection of hub caps. I’m a little suprised he let George Lopez pick up Rajan Rondo, but G-EL is a fantasy basketballa if I recall correctly. I’d mention Kendrick Perkins as well, but Perk is Bernie Mac’s 2C. And B-Em was a balla as well. People I don’t expect to win: Meat Loaf, Pamela Anderson (even though she has Kid Rock with her this time around), and Will Ferrell.

Next up, Saeed of Fantasy Bull checks in over at RaptorBlog with his sleeper picks for this season. That’s right Scott, I used a little Web 2.0 voodoo to melt your site down and pour it into my RSS reader. And I almost took personal offense to a comment by God’s Son about reviews of teams that aren’t the Raptors and other reviews that won’t ever get completed. I was all ready to bust out PMad’s fantasy preview of the Raptors until I realized GS was calling on Scott and not GMTR. Just when I thought we was some big fish here.

And finally, Steve “Not the Snapper” Jones has some pretty good lessons learned after his first draft of the season.

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One-seventh of that spreadsheet was the GMTR mock draft conducted by Nels and myself as part of a little friendly (or not so friendly) competition. While you can view the draft in the above mentioned spreadsheet, since this is a competition and all and because Nels has editing rights to the sheet, I want to document the draft in a neutral environment. This will hopefully prevent Nels going back and “adjusting” the spreadsheet so his teams somehow miraculously win at the end of the year. Plus, if you don’t want to take a look at the spreadsheet (although I don’t know why you would) the GMTR mock draft lie below for your viewing.

How is this league going to work? We’ve set up a roto league online and filled each team with picks 1 – 13. There is no bench, no trades, no pickups, and no drops, meaning that all 13 players are going to play the entire year for their respective team. This requires Nels and I to develop prescient abilities in order to predict year-ending injuries, but I’ve been taking my spice mélange in preparation for this event. At the end of the year, the guy with the top team (or combination of teams) wins total domination, or maybe some kind of lesser domination, over the loser.

For the GMTR Draft, I took the odd teams and Nels took the even teams, which meant I lead things off with Lebron James, followed by Nels with Dirk and so on. Here is the whole shebang, rounds 1 – 13:

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Round / Actual Pick, Avg. Proj. Pick / Player / Position
1. (1, 1) L. James – SF
2. (24, 24) J. O’Neal – PF,C
3. (25, 25) D. Howard – PF
4. (48, 54) A. Iguodala – SG,SF
5. (49, 47) B. Davis – PG
6. (72, 62) A. Bogut – PF,C
7. (73, 65) T. Ford – PG
8. (96, 81) T. Prince – SF
9. (97, 110) D. West – PG,SG
10. (120, 118) K. Perkins – PF,C
11. (121, 116) S. Jackson – SG,SF
12. (144, 146) J.R. Smith – SG
13. (145, 185) Ty. Thomas – SF,PF

Click this link to see the Give Me WLS AM 89 team in a more comprehensible table. You can see the full results of the draft in the spreadsheet mentioned here (though all the picks aren’t necessarily in order), or at Dropping Dimes you can see a picture of half of the players I drafted (maybe the only picture of Tyrus Thomas you’ll see on a fantasy basketball site all season) along with the results of the draft.

So, there’s that.

Yeah, I won the so-called LeBron James lottery. I guess it’s not really a winner’s attitude, but I’d never actually envisioned myself getting LeBron. As such, I never really thought of what a LeBron James strategy would look like. So, without any sort of game plan in mind, and a half hour to come up with something – anything- I choked for the next 12 rounds of the draft. Luckily, I wasn’t bringing PMad down with me. We didn’t do the team drafting thing like I think Skeetz and Taz somehow managed to pull off. You can see the Uwe Blab Confab roster here.

Let me start with the questions that Dennis wants me to answer (I’m assuming he doesn’t care if I post it here rather than email it to him):

1. Which player was your best pick, value-wise?

I’d say Bogut was probably my best value pick. Bogut was actually my second choice at that point, but Nenad Krstic was taken 5 spots before I could get him. Sam Dalembert was taken 3 picks before me. At that position in the draft, I think I’d rather have Bogut than Dalembert, though. Bogut will be out for the first few weeks of the season, but I think his potential for improvement over last year’s numbers will make up for that.

2. Which player was your worst pick, value-wise?

Worst pick value-wise was probably Delonte West. I was derided fairly roundly after making that pick. Of course, most people said they were waiting until the 10th round to consider West, I was picking at the end of the 10th round, so he might not have been left at that point. I’m just hoping he can block 0.7 shots a game again this year. And maybe Tony Allen won’t be on the Celtics anymore. That would help.

3. Which player was your risk/reward pick, the pick you gambled on to have a good season?

Iguodala is my upside risk. West was another upside risk, but I already put him as my worst-value pick. I took Iguodala a little earlier than I wanted to, but I am certain he wouldn’t have been around at pick 72. So, I’m counting on him to hold up to his late 4th round/early 5th round pick. I guess it wasn’t that much of a risk, but I took him earlier than I wanted, so I consider it a gamble.

4. Other than your own, which manager do you think has the strongest team?

I think the Fantasy Lounge team is probably the best one besides mine. Or really even including mine. I realize it’s not easy, but you can see the team over on the Dropping Dimes recap page.

Now for the category by category analysis:

FG%: I got 3 guys in the top 32 of players with over 400 attempts.

FT%: I did manage to pick up Howard, who attempts a lot of FTs and shoots pretty poorly. I also didn’t get anyone who shoots FTs well; My Team FT% comes in around 71%. So, I’m not really punting the category, but I’m certainly not placing a high value on i.t
3PTM: I picked up LeBron, Baron Davis, and Stephen Jackson. I’m hoping that the other guys can chip in enough to get me a decent rank in threes.

PTS: LeBron was number 2 in the league last season. He better at least come close to that or else I’m left with Dwight, S-Jax, Jermaine, and Tayshaun to help me out here. That’s a Jackson 5 set up if I’ve ever seen it.

REB: Dwight Howard. #1 in the league. After that I’ve got Bogut, and then I’m looking at LeBron again. Maybe Perkins will up his minutes enough be a solid contributor for me here. Jermaine was getting 9 per game, but who knows how many games he’ll be playing in.

AST: Once again, my big source is LeBron. He’s backed up by Baron Davis, who I hope can duplicate last season’s numbers in Nellie’s fast-paced style a la Steve Nash. Davis and TJ Ford are both in the second tier of assists according to Fantasy Basketball Guy. I saw one (single) article that Iguodala might be running the point a bit in Philly, which could up his numbers in this category a little.

ST: My gamble, Andre Iguodala, is in the 7th tier of steals according to the fantasy basketball guy. LeBron is in the 8th tier (though unlisted). Another category that I’ll just have to hope I can hang around in.

BLK: I’ve got no one higher than Jermain with 117, but Howard and Perkins were both over 100 as well. And Perk only played 20 minutes/game for 68 games. As the starting C for the C’s, he should be able to get into the top tier in blocks. In case you were wondering, the Perk Is a Beast blog is one of the main reasons I went with Perkins as my second Center.

TO: I’m not sure about this one, but I do have LeBron James and TJ Ford. Baron Davis probably won’t be helping me out if he plays more games this season. Ay yi yi.

So there’s my somewhat ominous beginning and I expect the rest of the season will continue in the same fashion.

And here’s some interesting news (seen elsewhere, of course) about my worst pick value-wise.

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