Give Me The Rock » Fantasy Draft Guide 2009

The GMTR Hot List: Top 10 Fantasy Centers

Patrick — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 14:21:06 +0000

Here is the fifth and final part of our week-long rundown of top 10 fantasy players at each position going into the year. I’d make it more than 10, but then I’d need a second set of hands to count with. Check out the Four Fingers Draft Guide if you’d like to see our entire list of top 40 players buy position.

Here are the league’s top centers:

1. Amar’e Stoudemire

There is always the risk that Stoudemire’s eye falls out of his socket during a game, but if you’re willing to take that risk, the reward will likely be the best center in the league. Not many big men can work both ends of the floor and still hit 85% of their free throws. Now that Shaq is gone, Amar’e becomes the Suns only go-to guy down low (Channing Frye seems content to bomb threes, not that there’s anything wrong with that). We predict in the neighborhood of 23 and 9 for Stoudemire this season; a first round pick despite the fact that he spent most of his off season getting his right eye drained for 22 hours a day.

2. Dwight Howard

Howard missed a game for the first time in his career in 2008-09. That’s just for the record. It doesn’t really affect his value at all. What does affect his value is his 11 free throw attempts per game at 59% shooting. In a H2H league, Howard is arguably the best center in the league because you can give up FT% as a category in exchange for Howard’s huge biceps. Oh, and his 14 boards and 3 blocks a game. In a rotisserie league however, the decision to draft Howard is a little more difficult. Although it’s possible to draft Howard in a roto league and not get killed in FT%, his fantasy kryptonite is why he’s ranked number two on our list instead of first.

3. Al Jefferson

Big Al’s season ended abruptly when he tore his ACL just before the All-Star break last year, halting a stretch of 5 straight double-doubles and a push to get him in the All-Star game. Jefferson was supposedly looking healthy in camp until he (cue ominous muzak) had to sit out the Wolves last two preseason games with a sore Achilles’ tendon. Provided he can stay healthy, Jefferson is one of the best offensive big men in the game and is a centerpiece of the Wolves offense. At 23 points, 11 boards, 2 blocks and 50% shooting from the field, Jefferson can anchor any type of fantasy team, but especially one that goes big. With Kevin Love out for the next 6-to-8 weeks, it’s going to be the Jefferson show down low for the Wolves. And he’ll finally get his piece of the pie.

4. Brook Lopez

In his rookie season, the 21-year old Lopez averaged 13 points, 8 boards and 1.8 blocks in a shade over 30 minutes a game. And he wasn’t even a starter to begin the season. Screw Greg Oden, THIS is the young center you want to draft. Our mock draft had the 7-footer going 25th overall, so he’ll go quickly in most drafts. But with Vince Carter out of the picture in New Jersey, the Nets have no one else who can score other than Lopez and Devin Harris. As a result, he’ll be one of the most improved centers over the course of the 2009-10 season.

5. Tim Duncan

Your heart may want to take someone like LaMarcus Aldridge during the third round of a draft, but your brain should tell you to draft Tim Duncan, who even at 33 years old with bad knees and a coach who likes to give him copious amounts of rest, still provides some of the best and most consistent value at the center position. While his stats have been on the decline over the past couple of years, the only thing that is going to stop The Big Fundamental this season is Gregg Popovich. His free throw percentage has always been ugly, but Duncan still provides 20 and 10 potential with blocks and a solid field goal percentage. If he falls to the third round in any draft, he’s a steal.

6. Mehmet Okur

Most people look at Okur and automatically think small-ball (or about his hot wife) because he’ll hit about 1.5 threes a game. But in reality his game is all-around solid and he’s a rotisserie boon since he averages less than two turnovers a game, 7.7 boards, 0.8 steals, 0.7 blocks, 17 PPG, and good percentages. Unfortunately, the enigmatic Carlos Boozer has f’d up the Jazz plans by staying with the team and will potentially steal minutes and touches from both Okur and Paul Millsap. Since Okur and Boozer do very different things on the court, expect Okur to retain most of his value in a tight Jazz rotation and be a worthwhile pick as early the late third round of any fantasy draft.

7. Nene Hilario

Drafting Nene last season was like finding an unopened present hiding in the back of the tree on Christmas day. No one expected him to step up as much as he did to help fill the void of the Clipper-bound Marcus Camby. But although Nene averaged an impressive 7.8 boards, 1.2 steals, 1.3 blocks an outing last season – don’t get too hot and heavy for the man. Prior to last season’s 77 games played performance, Nene was largely considered to be an injury prone bust of a player. Before last year, the last time he played more than 65 games in a season was in 2003-2004. It would be nice to think that he has turned a corner and will be more reliable in terms of his injury resiliency, but his track record isn’t very encouraging. Still, the huge potential Nene brings should make the fifth round a decent time to target him.

8. Al Horford

Horford is your prototypical big-ball center, bringing rebounds, blocks and FG% to the table. At 23 years old and entering his 3rd season, there’s a good chance he averages a double-double on the year. What more do you want? The Hawks say they are going to get him more involved in the offense this year, but that sounds like bullshit to me. Be happy with the double-double potential.

9. Andris Biedrins

One of the greatest things about Biedrins is that he’s already entering his sixth season and he’s only 23 years old. Last season, he averaged a double-double (12 points and 11 boards) in only 30 mpg. While Nellie could literally do anything with that lineup and it would not surprise us, Golden State has a shortage of big men again, so expect to see bump in minutes for Biedrins and an increase in all of his counting categories as a result. The Latvian is also a dominant FG% factor with a career average of 60.4 percent. The Achilles heel is his FT%, but he doesn’t shoot enough to bog you down like Shaq or Howard. Look for another strong year from this potential All-Star.

10. Andrew Bynum

Is the year that Andrew Bynum actually plays a decent number of minutes AND games? The odds are probably not in his favor based on his injury history, but if he can stay healthy and on the court for more than 60 games, he a double-double machine waiting to happen and a legit top 50 player since he blocks shots and brings along good percentages. Add in the fact that Bynum will have just turned 22 years old at the start of the season and you have a player who is either 1) going to explode into a star this year, or 2) play in 40 games.

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For the rest of our top 40 list of centers (as well as the rankings of the other positions, positional tiers, and cheat sheets), you’ll have to check out the Four Fingers Draft Guide. Now with 33% more scantily clad women and 15% more calories.

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The GMTR Hot List: Top 10 Fantasy Power Forwards

Patrick — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 15:08:02 +0000

Here is part four of our week-long rundown of top 10 fantasy players at each position going into the year. Check out the Four Fingers Draft Guide if you really want to see the rest of the top 40 list.

Onto some of the league’s sexiest men… err… I mean best power forwards

1. Dirk Nowitzki

Unlike a lot of the PFs on the list, Dirk’s center-eligibility is long in the rear view mirror. Still, Nowitzki consistently puts up first-round numbers for fantasy owners who have to “settle” for a guy who is just a lonely power forward. He may not be the sexiest name to draft these days, but it’s easy to forget how good his all-around game is – Dirk brings 25 points and 8.5 boards with excellent percentages and the ability to hit the long range shot. It might not be the most exciting pick, but don’t hesitate to draft Nowitzki after the top of the first round guys are gone.

2. Chris Bosh

One of the biggest names playing for a max contract in the magical summer of 2010, it’s probable that Chris Bosh responds to the pressure this year with his best season yet. Among fantasy’s biggest positive impact free throw shooters—especially valuable in a big man—over the last four years he’s also consistently posted in the neighborhood of 22 points on 49 FG%, 10 boards, 2.5 assists, 1 block and nearly 1 steal per game. Look for him to take a small step forward in his age-25 season thanks to the arrival of Hedo Turkoglu and the maturation of Andrea Bargnani and Jose Calderon’s games.

3. Pau Gasol

One great thing about drafting the 29 year old Gasol is that you know exactly what you’re going to get from him: 18.9 points, 9 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1 block with great percentages. Those numbers were good for 11th on the GMTR 9-cat rater last year there is no reason to think they can’t be just as good this year. Oh right… maybe you’re worried about how the return of Andrew Bynum is going to affect Gasol? From October 28 to January 31 with Bynum in the lineup, Gasol averaged 17.2 points, 8.8 boards and a block a game. And you don’t think Bynum is going to stay healthy all year, do you?

4. Antawn Jamison

Jamison may be on the down side of his career, but he continues to produce at both forward slots for fantasy owners. The return of Gilbert Arenas may lighten his scoring load by a few points a game, but Jamison is a consistent enough contributor of points, rebounds and treys that he’s an early round value with or without Arenas (as he has shown in the past). If you can put up with getting a pathetic amount of block numbers from your power forward, Jamison can be the focal point your Carlos Boozer/Al Harrington team of big men who don’t block shots.

5. David West

The only thing wrong with David West’s game is that he doesn’t play center, as the big man averaged 21 points, 8.5 rebounds and 88% from the line last season. Ok, a few more blocks would be nice, but not everyone can be Amar’e Stoudemire. New Hornet Emeka Okafor may take a few more shots away from West than Tyson Chandler did, but the 29 year old is at the peak of his career and should go by the 3rd round in most league formats.

6. David Lee

The Knicks’ apathy for David Lee is more than offset by fantasy owners’ hard-on for the man. Pound-for-pound, Lee is one of the best rebounders in the NBA – he averaged 11.7 boards and led the league in double-doubles last season. He also brings great percentages from the floor, decent steals, and a nice smile. Bonus points for being center eligible in nearly all leagues. At 26 years old, he should just be entering his prime. Just remember if you draft Lee, please masturbate to your fantasy team in private.

7. Troy Murphy

Hands down the best power forward with center-eligibly if you’re going small ball (take that, Al Harrington). Last year, Murphy took his game to the next level, at least in terms of rebounding and threes while keeping his turnovers low. No, he’s not going to shoot 45% from behind the arc again this year, but expect his counting stats to stay at a level similar to last season because the Pacers decided that standing pat on their crappy roster was their best move this off season. On the downside, Murphy will likely miss at least 8-10 games based on a historical injury-prone 61 games played average across his nine year NBA career. Since he’s not really a big name player and has not averaged above 15 PPG since – uh, ever – you will definitely be able to get him at a discount in drafts (say 3rd or 4th round). Not bad considering he finished last season as a top 20 player.

8. LaMarcus Aldridge

With all eyes on Greg Oden the past couple of years, it was easy to miss Lamarcus Aldridge turning into all-star caliber forward. Aldridge is a great offensive player who can score from anywhere inside the three point line. The addition of free agent point guard Andre Miller and the fact that he’s still only 24 years old means Aldridge will almost certainly see even more improvement in his game this season. Now if he would only work on the defense a little. He should be gone by the 3rd-4th round in most leagues.

9. Kevin Garnett

The way people have been avoiding KG in drafts, you think he was trying to give people syphilis. Of course it’s understandable – Garnett has gotten downright mediocre compared to the perennial first pick we were used to earlier in his career. Plus he’s coming off an injury-plagued season in 2008-09 and the Celtics brought in Rasheed Wallace to reduce the wear and tear on KG during the regular season. However, Sheeds arrival could work in The Big Ticket’s favor at least in terms of staying healthy and on the court. Given 30 minutes a game, expect something around 16/8 with a block and very good percentages. If KG falls past the 4th round, it could end up being one of the big steals of a draft.

10. Rashard Lewis

Regardless of which forward spot he lines up at, Rashard is going to keep doing what Rashard does: splash three-balls. Since getting ridiculously overpaid in a sign-and-trade to join the Magic two seasons ago to spread the floor for Dwight Howard, Lewis has led the NBA in three-pointers made with 2.8 per game. Aside from that talent, his stat line looks pretty vanilla, yet he doesn’t hurt you in any category and contributes in all of them. Look for more of the same from Lewis as he continues to age well in what will be his 12th season of trying to erase the crying-in-the-green-room-on-draft-night image from our collective minds. Suspended 10 games to start the season, his value is higher in H2H leagues with playoffs than in roto-style leagues that rely on category totals.

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For the rest of our top 40 list of power forwards (as well as the rankings of the other positions, positional tiers, and cheat sheets), you’ll have to check out the Four Fingers Draft Guide. Where else can you read a collect of poems written by us about Stan Van Gundy.

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The GMTR Hot List: Top 10 Fantasy Small Forwards

Patrick — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 13:51:55 +0000

Here is part three of our week-long rundown of top 10 fantasy players at each position going into the year. Why 10? Because all the best lists have 10 things in them. Well, except for High Fidelity. But if you want to see the rest of our top 40, it’s available through the Four Fingers Draft Guide.

On to the league’s best small forwards. Ironically, none of them are very small.

1. LeBron James

Easily the best small forward and possibly the best fantasy player overall ahead of Chris Paul, LeBron takes the term “stat filler” to places it was never meant to go. The King averaging a 28.9/7.6/7.3 with 1.7 steals, 1.2 blocks and 1.6 threes last season and was even able to improve his once killer FT% to a league average 78%. Yeah, the turnovers suck, but you have to cut the man some slack since he runs an entire offense by himself. Shaq and his gassed ass will have absolutely no effect on LeBron. Like CP3, drafting LeBron allows you the flexibility to build any type of team around him.

2. Kevin Durant

We have Durant 3rd overall in our rankings. Crazy? Well, the kid is crazy good. Last season, at 20 years old, Durant was already the best shooting small forward in the league in terms of percentages. Add in the fact that he’s a lock to improve on his 25 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.3 TPG sophomore performance and you have someone who is both a known commodity and filled with upside.

3. Danny Granger

The 26 year old Granger is the last of the first round locks at small forward. He ended up 4th on the GMTR Player Rater last year because, like any good small forward, he does just about everything on the court. You may already know he’s one of the best three point shooters in the league (at 2.7 a game last season), but it was easy to miss that Granger also blocked 1.5 shots a game, which believe it or not, is better than every other SF on this top 10 list. Respect.

4. Andre Iguodala

AI9 has been a fantasy darling over the past few seasons as he contributes in stat categories across the board (except for his FT%, which hovers in the low 70s). Expect his all-around studliness to continue, but there will still be questions about how a healthy Elton Brand will affect Iguodala’s game. It could open up space for him thanks to Brand’s effective low post game or Brand could siphon touches away. Regardless, there is no doubt Iguodala is a Hyperizer and it’s easy to forget he’s still only 25 years old.

5. Paul Pierce

Let’s be honest, Pierce is no fun to take in a draft because for years and years he’s been doing exactly the same thing: putting up numbers and staying healthy. But that’s exactly why we have him as the 5th best small forward. Despite the addition of Allen and KG over the past couple years, Pierce has been able to do about 95% of what he was doing at his peak, which isn’t bad for a guy who was supposed to be sacrificing individual stats for team glory. The addition of Rasheed Wallace and the growth of Rondo may decrease his offensive numbers slightly, but The Truth is as durable as they come (playing 79 or more games in eight of the last nine years) so you can bank on his line of 20-5-4 with a couple of threes and steals mixed in.

6. Shawn Marion

After brief stints in Miami and Toronto, The Matrix is once again paired up with a point guard that makes everyone around him that much better. Dallas has never been a team to take pride in their defense, just the type of system where a player like Marion flourishes. He’s not going to get back to the levels of his automatic first-round days – mostly because his blocks and threes have bottomed out – but Marion will improve off of last season’s down year. Bump him up a few notches in rotisserie leagues as he is the type of player that won’t hurt you in any category.

7. Gerald Wallace

Don’t let last season’s numbers and averages tempt you into drafting Crash too early. It’s not entirely impossible that he may join oft-hobbled Tyson Chandler on the Bobcats bench for a good number of games due to injury. While he can still be a multi-cat beast capable of 7+ boards, 2 steals and a block on any given night, expecting a second/third round pick to miss about a dozen games every season is not exactly the best way to kick-off a fantasy draft, but hey, tempting is tempting.

8. Caron Butler

Butler, maybe even more than Gerald Wallace before him, is coming dangerously close to the Tracy McGrady zone of players whose career never reaches its full potential because of injuries. In his most recent 3 seasons, Butler has played in 63, 58, and 67 games. Now, 67 isn’t horrible, but that is basically four weeks worth of missed games. As for the return of Gilbert Arenas, Butler has shown he can be a top 20 fantasy talent on a per game basis playing alongside Arenas waaaaay back in 2006 (blame Arenas, not Butler, for that one). In addition, the flexibility Butler adds to a lineup is good for a 4th or 5th round pick, since he can play essentially 4 positions, and won’t really hurt you in any category except when he’s missing games.

9. Carmelo Anthony

The bad news: Anthony’s scoring has regressed year over year since 2006-07. The good news: He is still dropping nearly 23 points per game. As the Denver Nuggets added talent like Chauncey Billups and saw Nene Hilario return, Melo has seen his field goal attempts decrease accordingly. However, the former lottery selection still provides copious amounts of buckets to go with a steal and a three per game. Also, if you draft in a league that counts free throws made instead of percentages, you may be intrigued by Anthony’s six conversions per game.

10. Rudy Gay

Gay is coming off a somewhat disappointing third season in which he saw his stats decrease across the board despite his minutes remaining constant. Add in the fact that the Grizzles have added offensive firepower over the past couple seasons in OJ Mayo, Zach Randolph, and Allen Iverson and you have a player that NO ONE is excited about drafting this year. But here is an interesting fact: Gay is the same height and weight and has a nearly identical skill set to Tracy McGrady. McGrady exploded into a superstar during his fourth year in the league and this will be Gay’s fourth year in the league. It’s not much, but the other options at this spot – Trevor Ariza/Stephen Jackson – bring even more uncertainty with them.

***
For the rest of our top 40 list of small forwards (as well as the rankings of the other positions, positional tiers, and cheat sheets), you’ll have to check out the Four Fingers Draft Guide. It’s a safe place where we can all agree to disagree about Dwight Howard.

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The GMTR Hot List: Top 10 Fantasy Shooting Guards

Patrick — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 14:04:48 +0000

Here is part two of our week-long rundown of top 10 fantasy players at each position going into the year. Why 10? Because you’ll need to buy the Four Fingers Draft Guide to see all 40. Anyway, here are the best of the best shooting guards.

1. Kobe Bryant

Is there a less enjoyable first round draft pick than Kobe? Chalk it up to the fact that the 31 year old has been a first rounder every year for the last decade. But his run as one of the best players in the league is not going to end this year, even if new Laker Ron Artest is guaranteed to sabotage the team at some point during the season. Kobe’s stats are slightly down from his peak of a few years ago (I wouldn’t count on him averaging 30 points a game again in his career) but you can count on Kobe to play though minor injuries and he is one of the most consistent players in the league. Expect a line of around 27/5/5 and a worthy mid-first round pick in all leagues.

2. Dwyane Wade

Wade should come off the board right after Kobe. In terms of pure production, you can argue that Wade is the best in the NBA: he led the league in scoring (30.2 PPG) and averaged 7.5 dimes, five boards, and over two steals a game last season. Despite the fact that he was healthy all of last year and played in 79 games, there will always be the fear that Wade’s body fails under the stress of his style of play again. But his production is well worth the risk and he’ll be playing for a new contract in 2010 if you believe in that kind of thing.

3. Brandon Roy

Roy benefited last season from the quintessential “third year bump” – he increased his scoring by 3.5 points a game to 22.6 and took his field goal and free throw percentages from “pretty good” to “damn that’s hot” levels. The Blazers’ acquisition of veteran point guard, Andre Miller would seem to suggest his assist totals will go down as the team won’t have to rely on him as a point guard as much this year. On the other hand, being set up by Miller is good for the scoring, so a hit in assists will probably be offset by an increase in his scoring numbers. Overall, 23+ points a night with good percentages and low turnovers puts Roy in a tier slightly below Kobe and Wade, but slightly above our next group of shooting guards.

4. Joe Johnson

So many fantasy owners sleep on the understated Johnson come draft day. Ranking in the top 10 in minutes per game in each of the last six years, the wear and tear might be starting to show on those knees, which is a big reason why the Hawks brought in Jamal Crawford to back up both guard positions. With the expected hit in minutes, his counting stats should suffer small dips, but it’s possible his FG% and 3PT% could rise with less on-the-ball responsibility. JJ ain’t a sexy pick, but at 28 years old he’s right in the prime of his career.

5. Vince Carter

Carter will fit nicely into the playmaking swingman role that Hedo Turkoglu occupied in Orlando for the last few seasons. The move should also get him to play a slightly more inspired brand of basketball now that he’s competing for a ring instead of wallowing away in the Jersey wasteland. For some reason, Carter still brings baggage with him from earlier in his career, but the man is no longer the injury risk he once was. Over the last three years, he’s played in 82, 76, and 80 games. Dare we say that Vince is actually consistent now? 22/5/4 with a steal and a couple threes a game is a one of the more predictable stat lines among the shooting guards.

6. Kevin Martin

Kevin Martin…. so much potential, so many injuries. When he is healthy – which has not been often – he’s a top 15 talent with the potential to score 25 points with 2+ threes a game. He’s also the best free throw shooter in the league thanks to his 10.3 attempts per game at 86.7%. On the flip side is his waif-like figure, which led him to miss 52 games over the past two years. Martin is certainly one of the riskiest picks in this year’s draft, but grabbing a second round talent in the fourth round is what makes or breaks champions…

Oh, and on the positive side, games played happens to be the least consistent stat from one year to the next in the NBA.

7. Monta Ellis

Ellis, who is still only 24 years old, is the ultimate tweener guard with a ton of potential. Given his youth, expect him to continue to improve as a scorer. Plus he also plays for a team that prefers offense over defense any day of the week and twice on Sundays. Risk lies in the potential moped injury, or even falling out of favor in the fickle lineups of Don Nelson. Thankfully, Ellis has a huge contract and is of little risk to be moved out of the Bay Area. If your team is in need of a scoring first guard with possible breakout potential, Ellis and his dual-position eligibility may be your answer.

8. Eric Gordon

GMTR. Loves. Gordon. If you’re looking for a breakthrough performance, Eric Gordon should be near the top of your list. He actually broke out last year during the latter half of his rookie campaign but no one really seemed to notice much. Being on the Clippers certainly didn’t help, but Gordon took over the starting SG job for the Clips on Nov. 24 and kept it for the next 65 games. Just 19 years old during his first start, he averaged 18.4 PPG and 1.9 3PM on 46.3 FG% and 85.5 FT% over those 65 games. Now he’ll have stud Blake Griffin helping him out and perhaps a healthy Baron Davis setting him up for quality shots. Are there no limits to his abilities? Actually he’s not quite the Messiah, but he was born on December 25.

9. Ray Allen

The eternally youthful Ray Allen keeps piling up big season after big season. His second year with Boston was as good as the first: 18 points and 2.5 threes with wicked good percentages. The fact that he’s 34 years old might scare some people away on draft day, but the Celtics are still undermanned at the guard positions and Allen did play in 79 games last season. Expect Allen to continue to get 35 minutes a game as long as his body can take it and you can count on him to be one of the best three point shooters in the league. He could end up being a steal in the early-mid-rounds.

10. John Salmons

Salmons has worked hard over the years to turn himself into a legitimate scoring threat on a nightly basis and he proved he could get it done on two different teams last year. With Ben Gordon’s departure, Salmons will be asked to pick up any of the slack that Luol Deng can’t handle in his return from injury. This means more of the same from Salmons and a likely repeat of his career season. Wait, can you repeat a career season? John Salmons sure the hell can. Considering many people are still not totally sold on his game, he should be available at a Jason Terry-like bargain in drafts this year.

***
For the rest of our top 40 list of shooting guards (as well as the rankings of the other positions, positional tiers, and cheat sheets), you’ll have to check out the Four Fingers Draft Guide. Now with 100% more Nick Young.

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The GMTR Hot List: Top 10 Fantasy Point Guards

Patrick — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 14:36:40 +0000

Beginning today is our week-long rundown of top 10 fantasy players at each position going into the year. Why 10? Because you’ll need to buy the Four Fingers Draft Guide to see all 40. Still, 10 for free ain’t bad, especially if you’re playing in a 4-team league. First up, point guards.

1. Chris Paul

Paul should be the first or second pick in all leagues and league formats. Why? As if leading the league in assists and steals each of the last two seasons wasn’t enough, he’s averaged 5.5 rebounds a game, finished 7th in total points while shooting over 50 percent from the field. He also led the league in assist-to-turnover ratio over the last three years. Is that enough? Paul does so many things so well, it gives you the flexibility to build any type of team around him.

2. Deron Williams

There’s Chris Paul. Then there’s Deron Williams. Then there’s the rest of the PG tiers. Like his New Orleans counterpart, Deron seems to have youth, talent and I can fly higher than an eagle potential on his side. The kid is a legitimate first round pick who is primed for a career year as a 20 point, 10 assist guy with 50 FG%. Really, the only thing that separates him and CP3 is a couple of rebounds and a steal a game. Ignore last season’s bad ankle sprain, Deron built like truck compared to the other point guards in the league.

3. Chauncey Billups

You might be concerned about Billups’ age, but the 33-year old is downright pre-pubescent compared to the next point guard on the list. In the Nuggets’ high-powered offense, Billups should give you points, assists, and 2+ threes a game. He’s also one of the best free throw shooters in the league (although his percentage from the floor hovers around 42%). Unlike Kidd and Nash, Billups has yet to see any age-related decline in his stats. Add in the fact that he’s shown himself to still be 80 games durable – and you can draft Billups with confidence that you will get production from the PG spot.

4. Jason Kidd

With the window closing on the Mavs championship chances, Mark Cuban has gone all-in this year in hopes of getting that elusive ring. In addition to re-upping Kidd, new additions Shawn Marion and Drew Gooden join the team and should benefit from Kidd and his passing ability. As for man himself, for the past 5 years we’ve been saying that Kidd his stats are eventually going to fall off a cliff. Will this finally be the year we’re right? Hell, none of us knows (and don’t pretend that you do). What we do know about Kidd is this: over the past few seasons, the number of shots he takes a game and his scoring has decreased to be point of being ridiculous, his rebounds have slid from 8 a game with NJ to 6 a game with Dallas, his assists have slid from 10+ at the height of his talents to 8+ currently, and yet he’s retained his fantasy value by becoming one of the most efficient three point shooters in the league and improving his per game steals with the Mavs. Hell ya I’d pee my pants a little drafting Kidd, but the man has been proving everyone wrong for years.

5. Jose Calderon

Draft Calderon for two reasons: his 8.9 apg and his percentages (career averages of 50 FG%, 38 3PT%, 89 FT%). Don’t draft Calderon for his defense, which is as solid as Kevin Federline’s acting credentials. While Calderon will still be one of the best assist men in the league, the signing of Jarrett Jack should steal some minutes away from Calderon (although that is not necessarily a bad thing as the man was overextended at times last year). As a result, expect a regression in his numbers back to the line of two seasons ago or even a tick below.

6. Devin Harris

Proving Mark Cuban wrong since 2008. One of last season’s most improved players will look to build off of his momentum as the leader of a young New Jersey squad. With Vince Carter now in Orlando, Harris will have to become the team’s go-to scorer as well as main distributor. Factor in a year of growth from Brook Lopez, and Devin Harris could provide Deron Williams type production at least a round or two later. Look for an All-Star caliber season from Harris that is full of points, assists and steals for fantasy owners.

7. Steve Nash

See Kidd, Jason.

Nash, like Kidd, is not the player he once was, but is still one of the best distributors in the league and an efficient – although not prolific – scorer. His percentages are still crazy good for a PG and the return of the run and gun Suns should benefit Nash’s scoring and assist totals. But while Nash and the Suns training staff keep him in great shape, but you have to worry about any type of chronic back injury affecting the number of games he can play this season.

8. Jameer Nelson

On a per game basis, Nelson was the 18th best fantasy player in the league last season, thanks in huge part to his 50% shooting from the floor and 2 threes a game. However, I’d bet my left nut (which, granted, is worth a lot less than it used to be now that I’m married) that he cannot keep up that pace over 82 games. Especially since the addition of Vince Carter will suck the ball out of Nelson’s hands like a human vacuum cleaner. Nelson will certainly be a Top Tier PG, but his stint in the Top 20 will be short lived.

9. Rajon Rondo

Unless you think Eddie House is the answer, The Celtics’ PG spot will continue to be the Rajon Rondo show, which is good for Rondo’s minutes (expect an increase into the mid-to-high 30’s) and his overall fantasy prospects. However, unlike the PGs above him on the list, Rondo’s ceiling is limited because he’s not a scorer and he doesn’t have a long range game to speak of. Rondo is what he is – which in fantasy is not always a bad thing. Draft him for mad assists and steals with the durability to play in 80+ games.

10. Derrick Rose

The world better watch out if Rose ever develops an outside shot, because the rest of his game runs like a Swiss clock made of Belgian chocolate (which I would imagine is both sweet and flawless). Even a minor improvement over his rookie season would put him in 19-20 point, 8 assist territory, which is home to only a few of the best point guards in the league. Add in a respectable amount of steals and great percentages and Rose should be off the board by the 4th round.

***
For the rest of our top 40 list of point guards (as well as the rankings of the other positions, positional tiers, and cheat sheets), you’ll have to check out the Four Fingers Draft Guide. Help me feed my baby!

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Other Stuff Like This:

Just A Little Taste

Erik — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 01:22:35 +0000

I decided that it was time to whet your appetites for the 2009 Fantasy Draft Guide, with a little taste of the content. Just so you know that you will be getting your money’s worth for its low, low price of $7.99. Yes, it’s definitely worth dieting for one lousy snack and foregoing that Big Mac Meal and Sundae. The meal would probably fill you for half a day (or less), while the guide will most likely keep your fantasy-starved bellies sated for at least a few months. Yes, its that good.

The guide contains all the information and research you will need to be that “drafter who knows his sh*t” in your draft room on draft day. It’s also got loads of quality articles which the six collaborators worked our butts off to bring to you.

A big part of winning in fantasy basketball is drafting a good team. What makes a winning fantasy team? Well it ends up being composed of players who end up performing at levels at that are equal to or beyond their expected fantasy value. Some are “bluechip” picks, others are sleepers, while some are even gambles that end up paying off.

This section of the Draft Guide geared towards aiding fantasy managers and drafters place a proper valuation on certain players by balancing out the risks that are organic to particular players coming into this season with the rewards that can be received if these players do perform close to the upper end of their upside or positive outlook.

That was the introduction for the Risk-Reward section. I compiled and consolidated some of our views and numerical ratings on players who are a bit tough to personally rank for this season’s draft.

We tossed 10-12 names into a hat and rated each player’s risk and reward. The ratings are the averages of each contributor’s assessment of the players.

Notable names on the said list include:

Gilbert Arenas
Elton Brand
Gerald Wallace
Andrew Bynum
And of course, this dude…

Image c/o LA Times Sports Blog

Here are a couple of guys who aren’t in the guide, but deserve to have their risks and rewards assessed; just for you to appreciate the format.

Shawn Marion, F Dallas Mavericks

Risk: The risk involving the Matrix as far as fantasy is concerned is not about injury, re-injury, nor off-the-court problems. The risk now germane to this player is about the concern that his statistical downward spiral, since he left the Phoenix Suns, will continue to progress. The risk surrounding Marion is more about getting caught up in the fantasy brand name that still may be attached to this former top fantasy draft seed. He hasn’t been first round material in a while. Gambling that he may have a huge rebound year now that he’s with the Mavericks may result in drafting him way too early.

Risk Rating: 3.3

Reward: “Marion just needs to find a new place to fit in like he did in the Suns.” If you believe that statement, then you’re probably in the glass-half-full crowd. Kidd is not Nash, nor are the Mavs the once D’Antoni coached Suns; but possibly close enough for Shawn to once again be catapulted into Top 12 fantasy status. As long as you calibrate your expectations of the guy and not expect Suns-Marion numbers, you will most likely be quietly pleased with what he will be contributing to your fantasy team. Upside outlook for the guy is that he will return to the 1-steal/block/trey Club with low turnovers.

Reward Rating: 7.3

*In the Guide’s Mock Draft (yes, of course it has one), someone and I’m not at liberty to say who, drafted Marion in the second round!

Carlos Boozer, PF/C Utah Jazz (Future destination currently undetermined)

Risk: Boozer is expected to leave the Jazz. It’s just currently a matter of determining where to. The question you should be asking yourselves, metaphorically speaking, is “Would Malone have as good as he was without Stockton?”. Malone’s stint in L.A. and away from John was too short to really judge fairly, but in Boozer’s case we will be able to see how good he really is without his Deron Williams. Will his history of knee problems finally take their toll and kick him out of the esteemed 20-10 club? Are you willing to draft this non-blocking big man early in the draft and risk him fizzling out or slacking off once he signs with a new team?

Risk Rating: 5.4

Reward: Boozer will most likely be a dominant scoring low-post threat, regardless of what team he plays for. Sickly high FG% at a high scoring volume and solid rebounding will be what you should expect. In a season that finds drafters aching to find reliable and healthy big men, Boozer might just end up being workable for your draft plans and strategy. Somewhere between his Cavalier and peak Jazz numbers is most likely a reasonable zone of expectation.

The draft write-up of the genius who picked Booze at just the right round I wanted him was short and sweet: “He’s Carlos fu*king Boozer!” Sorry, you’ll have to buy the draft guide to see who did it, said it, and at what round.

Reward Rating: 7.8

If that’s not enough, then don’t forget that we have stat projections for our Top 250 players. Yes, each player gets a write-up as well.

I was planning to do a Head to Head Strategy Draft Guide for Points in the Paint, before the seed for the idea of this guide got planted. When the guide and its contents became clearer, I decided to contribute the bulk of my outlined content to our lovely little guide instead. There are five (5) strategies that have been laid out for you to study and choose from. It’s good stuff. After all, GMTR isn’t paying me millions of dollars just for my dashing good looks and the pleasure of my company. Oh yeah, don’t forget to stay tuned to PitP for more sneak previews that I’ll be rolling out soon.

Get an inside peak into my oft-mad strategic machinations and maybe, just maybe, you can give the defending Champion of the GMTR Reader’s League a run for his money.

There’s something in the guide for everyone. Whether you’re new to the game, a grizzled vet, or a hardcore fantasy addict (like the Guide’s writers); there are useful nuggets of info, wisdom, and entertainment you can use to help you win that coveted gold trophy in your fantasy league. The guide is expected to be out in early September. Yes, that soon! So break out your checkbooks (or PayPal accounts actually) and in those immortal words of those sneakers most of us wear… “Just Do It.”

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