Give Me The Rock

Here’s Patrick on why we do this:

So what are player tiers? It’s the practice of grouping players of similar value into levels or tiers. The goal is to identify areas where there are large gaps in value between groups of players, so that there is a large drop off in value between the players in tier A and those in tier B. This not only simplifies drafting, it also helps you to identify times during a draft where it might be worthwhile to take a lesser ranked player at a certain position because he is the last guy available from his tier, while there maybe be plenty of similarly ranked players are other positions.

End filler.

Insert picture.

The following analysis is derived from Give Me The Rock’s positional ranking spreadsheet.

After looking at the 35 players below, I’m not too psyched about drafting small forwards this year (wouldn’t have known that by looking at my mock draft, right?). The SFs below are listed with their overall ranking on the Give Me The Rock Big Board.

Tier 1 - Can’t live with em, Can’t live without em
3.5 - LeBron James
10.5 - Caron Butler

These are both strong multi-category contributors, but they’re not quite (at least in my opinion) the kind of guys you want to build a team around. They’re actually better Roto players than H2H. If I’ve got the 4th pick, and LeBron is there, there’s no one else I’m going to take. Likewise, if it’s the end of the first round, or into the second round and Caron is still there, I will take the kind of look you take at a girl when you’re trying to decide if she’s anorexic or just really skinny. (For those who’ve never had to make that decision, it’s a very long [though not more than 90-second], curious, and intent look)

Tier 2 - In which R-Lew occupies his own tier
13.5 - Rashard Lewis

So there’s Rashard. And this is why I think the SFs are kind of thin this year. Luckily, if you’re playing on Yahoo, you can put Rashard at PF and F. But what kind of strategy are you running if that’s what you’re thinking? Small ball owners shouldn’t really be looking at Rashard in the 2nd round (which is where he should probably go). But Big Ball owners will be disappointed by his only slightly above average rebounding and poor shot blocking.

Tier 3 - Three Amigos
28 - Paul Pierce
31 - Rudy Gay
34.5 - Carmelo Anthony

Here’s where I feel like we get to the solid SFs (not that LeBron and Caron aren’t solid, but they’re good enough overall players regardless of position). Of course, all of these guys will go in the 3rd round, so you’ll have to decide which one you want depending on your first two picks. If you’re going Big Ball, Gay is probably the best choice, especially since he can play PF and F. Small ballers will want Pierce, since he’s got more assists, a better FT%, and Yahoo says he can play SG and G. And there could be worse things than picking Carmelo at the end of the 3rd round. Like picking your nose at the end of the 3rd quarter when the Kiss Cam comes on.

Tier 4 - The Black & White Cookie Tier
38 - Ron Artest
42.5 - Mike Dunleavy
43 - Peja Stojakovic
43.5 - Gerald Wallace
52.5 - Hedo Turkoglu
53 - Josh Howard

This is another fairly solid tier of SFs. They’re down here, though, because there’s some question marks about each of them. While Artest is on a new team with injury-prone players, it’s still Ron Artest. Dunleavy had a career year, and I’m sure we’re all wondering if he’s going to be able to do it again. Stojakovic played 77 games last year, but he has an on-again-off-again relationship with playing that many games. Wallace also has an aversion to playing more than about 70 games a year. Tukoglu is another guy with a career year. But, this year, he’s playing for a Fat Contract, so you can probably draft him counting on a continuation of 07-08. Some of Josh Howard’s numbers were down a bit last year; will he bounce back or continue his poor shooting from the end of last season?

Tier 5 - What you see is what you get
65 - Corey Maggette
67 - Kevin Durant
67.5 - Andrei Kirilenko
69.5 - Richard Jefferson

With the exception of Jefferson, these are actually some of my favorite SFs. I guess that’s why RJ is at the bottom of the tier. He’s still strong enough though to stay away from the Tier 6 guys though. Maggette should be as solid as ever even with GSW, and Durant’s middle name is Upside. Others may tell you it’s Wayne, but I hear he’s considering having it legally changed.

Tier 6 - More Upside
75.5 - Shane Battier
78 - Jamario Moon
78.5 - Luol Deng
81 - Grant Hill
97 - Michael Beasley
101.5 - Marvin Williams

These guys will all be solid in a what-you-see-is-what-you-get sort of way. Deng and Beasley probably have the most upside. Williams could be a good sleeper. I’m wary of Moon coming out of nowhere to play like he did last season, so I’m of the mind to let other managers draft him. If he’s a stud, then I’ll deal with that. You can never go wrong with Shane Battier.

Tier 7 - Should be higher
103.5 - Francisco Garcia
106 - Tayshaun Prince
113.5 - Ryan Gomes

These 3 should be ranked higher overall, but you just know they’re not going to get the PT or they’re already on a fairly stacked team that will limit their opportunities.

Tier 8 - Value stock picks
119.5 - James Posey
130 - Kyle Korver
144.5 - Dorell Wright
136.5 - Thaddeus Young
139 - Andres Nocioni
139 - Travis Outlaw

You can definitely tell we’ve transitioned from Growth to Value picks with this tier. If you can get these guys at the end of the draft and predict which one will get the most playing time, and make the best use of that time, then you’re going to get someone who will end up much higher on the player rater than their draft position. Of course, it’s also possible that they could all strike out.

Tier 9
146.5 - Danilo Gallinari
154.5 - James Jones
157.5 - Eduardo Najera
167.5 - Wally Szczerbiak

Finally we’re to the end. What do you want to know about these guys that you can’t already guess by reading their multi-national names?

Let’s hope we have as much fun with the shooting guard tiers as we did with the point guard tiers. As always, most of the information found in these posts is available on our Big Board, Player Tier Spreadsheet and Mock Draft.

Tier 1 – The First Rounders

1. Kobe Bryant (4)
2. Dwyane Wade (9)

No surprise that Kobe Bryant is the top ranked SG going into the season. Unfortunately, if you do take him, you’ll have to wait until the season starts to see if you drafted Scoring Machine Kobe or Good Teammate Kobe (or some bi-polar combination of both). Either way, one of those Kobes will finish the year as one of the best fantasy guys in the league, it just makes planning out the rest of your team during the draft a little difficult. Dwayne Wade is neither as good nor as consistent as Kobe, but he should go in the first round of most drafts. He looked good during the Olympics, which kinda should almost mean something.

Tier 2 – Guys to Go to War With (And Vince Carter)

3. Danny Granger (21)
4. Jason Richardson (22)
5. Kevin Martin (25)
6. Vince Carter (25)

Danny Granger is getting so much love this season that even David Duchovny is starting to get jealous. Granger busted out in his third season to average over 19 points, 6 boards, and 2 threes a game. He’s 25-years old and the Pacers appear to be building around the guy. He went #21 in the GMTR Readers’ Mock Draft and #26 in the FantasyBasketball.com draft, which are both spots I’d feel comfortable taking him.

Jason Richardson put up the best season of his career in 07-08, averaging 22/5/3 with a league leading 3 threes a game. Amazingly, he also played in all 82 games and managed to increase his FG% up to a career-busting high of 75%. The fact that he went 41 in the GMTR mock is an indication how people feel about his likelihood to repeat that performance. Personally, I feel that his stats should remain fairly constant from last season, but the games played might take a dive.

If Vince Carter were a normal man, fights would be breaking out in war rooms across this great land to draft an all-star on a team as bad as the Nets. Instead, people are worried that the 2008 Nets are going to look an awfully lot like the 2004 Raptors.

Tier 3 – Beauty and the Beast

7. Andre Iguodala (39)
8. Joe Johnson (42)

The old two person tier. Classic. Go ahead and stick them in the second tier if you swing that way, but I’m definitely picking these guys after all the guys in tier two (yes, even Vince Carter). Before there was Josh Smith, Iguodala was the guy who gave 90% of the fantasy basketball community a hard-on when they drafted him. He keeps getting better as well, pretty much averaging 20/5/5 last season. If it wasn’t for Brand joining the Sixers (and the uncertainty that brings), Iguodala probably would have slid into a higher tier.

Tier 4 – Good Things Come to Those Who Shoot

9. Ray Allen (48)
10. Brandon Roy (49)
11. Manu Ginobili (55)
12. Stephen Jackson (55)
13. Michael Redd (58)
14. Jamal Crawford (62)
15. Jason Terry (62)
16. Mike Miller (64)

Manu would definitely be in the second tier if not for his ankle injury that will now keep him out until at least mid-December, and maybe longer. This could be one of those annoying injuries where his return date keeps getting pushed further and further back until you realize it is February and he’s still wasting away on your bench… I’ve been hurt before.

I really want to like Brandon Roy, I really do. I mean he averaged 19 points and 6 assists in only his second season. Taking into account his likely improvement, that means what this year – 20 and 7? 22 and 7.5? 35 and 15? But the fact that Roy has been a pretty fragile guy in his short career and that he’s already had knee surgery in the off season scares me a little. Ok, a lot. You’ve got to take him in his tier, I just won’t be crushed if it’s someone else taking him.

And Jamaal Crawford. Does he become a breakout player in Mike D’Antoni’s system? Is this the year he shoots over 41% from the floor? Reports are that the Knicks are going to be playing fast, which is likely a boon for Crawford’s offensive game. He’ll hurt your team’s FG% for sure, but the points and threes will be worth it. He went #73 in the GMTR mock, if you can grab him there, he’ll be worth it.

Tier 5 – Solid Number Twos (And Tracy McGrady)

17. Richard Hamilton (77)
18. Tracy McGrady (73)
19. Anthony Parker (78)
20. Raja Bell (82)
21. Ben Gordon (84)
22. Randy Foye (90)
23. Ronnie Brewer (105)
24. Ricky Davis (113)
25. John Salmons (113)

This is a huge tier that could have possibly been split after Anthony Parker or Randy Foye, but the peeps are really loving John Salmons this season, and I’m loving Ronnie Brewer (although no one loves Ricky Davis). I like Salmons as well as a late round pick and although he’ll be starting, the fact that he’ll likely be splitting time with Francisco Garcia means that I wouldn’t reach for him until the picks get in the 100s. While Randy Foye qualifies at shooting guard, technically he’s a point guard. But since I left him out of the PG write-up, I’ll stick him here and hope no one notices. What? Ok, slide him into tier 6 of the PG rankings if you must. McGrady went #48 in the Fantasybasketball.com mock and #65 in the GMTR mock, so there are people willing to give the guy the benefit of the doubt. Me? Not so much.

Tier 6 – Guys to Take a Chance on in Smaller Leagues

26. JR Smith (139)
27. Russell Westbrook (119)
28. Daniel Gibson (123)
29. Michael Pietrus (124)
30. Deshawn Stevenson (125)
31. Cuttino Mobley (144)
32. OJ Mayo (126)
33. Rudy Fernandez (153)

J.R. Smith has a shiny new 3-year contract to be a scorer off the bench for the Nuggets. He averaged an insane 5.3 threes per 48 minutes last season (2.1 in his 19 minutes a game) and with the departure of Eduardo Najera, he could be in for a few more minutes this year (but he’ll still be coming off the bench). Nels really likes Russell Westbrook on his side of the big board, so he’ll have to back up that move. I guess the minutes could be there for Westbrook since his competition right now is Earl Watson. SA Spurscasters also makes a good point in the mock that Westbrook reminds him of Monta Ellis. Now that is praise worth more than the pixels it’s written on.

Rudy Fernandez joins the Blazers from the Spanish league and already has the support of Nate McMillan, who says that Fernandez might jump right into the starting role and move Roy to PG. Starting or not, he’s a great scorer and three point shooter and that alone makes him worth a late round pick just to see what kind of playing time he gets.

Tier 7 – Guys to Take a Chance on in Bigger Leagues

34. Keith Bogans (147)
35. Larry Hughes (145)
36. Sasha Vujacic (148)
37. Kelenna Azubuike (157)
38. Rashad McCants (172)
39. Maurice Evans (179)
40. Kyle Lowry (160)
41. Eric Gordon (184)
42. Marko Jaric (190)

Alright – last tier of SGs. Basically, a bunch of guys who may not be starting for their teams, but have some at least some potential. Maurice Evans joins the Hawks and will likely replace Josh Childress as their 6th man. The departure of Juan Carlos Navarro will open up some minutes for Kyle Lowry, but he’s still going to be coming off the still off bench in favor of Mike Conley. Keith Bogans will probably play backup Michael Pietrus, who joined the Magic this off season. Rashard McCants was never very good to begin with and will find minutes harder to come by with Mike Miller now on the team. Kelenna Azubuike flashed some talent at times last season, but like last year, he’ll be stuck coming off the bench. Sasha Vujacic is going to find minutes tough to come by in that Lakers’ rotation.

Recently, I was lucky enough to participate in a mock draft set up by Jamaal Gilbert from FantasyBasketball.com. The draft pretty much consisted of various basketball bloggers as well as a few guys from FantasyBasketball.com. You’ll need to buy their 2008 fantasy draft guide to see the results of the mock, so while it wouldn’t be right for me to rundown the entire results of the draft, I don’t think I’ll be hunted down and killed if I showed you how my team shaped up.

And – in my humble opinion – it is one of the greatest mock draft teams ever assembled in the history of mock drafting.* The league consisted of 12 teams and was based on a 8-category rotisserie scoring format. It starts 4 G, 4 F, and 1 C. I had the 6th pick in the draft and here is how things shook out for me:

Round/Pick/Player
1.6 Shawn Marion (F MIA)
2.19 Elton Brand (F PHI)
3.30 David West (F NO)
4.43 Chauncey Billups (G DET)
5.54 Manu Ginobili (G SA)
6.67 Gilbert Arenas (G WAS)
7.78 Chris Kaman (C LAC)
8.91 Jason Terry (G DAL)
9.102 Leandro Barbosa (G PHO)
10.115 Jamario Moon (F TOR)
11.126 Drew Gooden (F CHI)
12.139 Grant Hill (F PHO)
13.150 Darko Milicic (C MEM)

Very nice. A couple quick notes about the mock draft:

• I’m still not really sure how Elton Brand fell to me in the second round. Dwight Howard, Deron Williams, and Baron Davis all went in the first, which was an early sign for how the rest of the draft was going to go. I remember Nash going early in the second and then – BAM – there was Brand sitting there at my pick.
• This draft is a great example of why I always go with the best player available for at least the first 3 rounds. After basically drafting 2 power forwards with my first two picks, David West was still available for me in the third. But, was it really smart to take a third PF? Chauncey Billups was available and was a good value at 30. I thought about taking him at that spot. In the end, I went with West and Billups was still available in the 4th.
• The one critique you could make against my team is the Manu Ginobili/Gilbert Arenas risks in the 5th and 6th round. In a perfect world, it’d make the most sense to draft one of those guys rather than both. But, Arenas in the 6th was impossible to pass up. Forty games out of Arenas makes him worth that 6th round pick.
• You can basically ignore my last three picks. Starting in the 11th round, I actually wanted to draft Ronnie Brewer. But CBS was being a little bitch and wouldn’t let me draft anymore guards (even though I only had 5 in a league that starts 4). By the 13th round, not only couldn’t I select a guard, but I couldn’t select a forward either. So, Darko it was (sorry Eddy Curry). So, while my team seems like it is a little weak in the guard area (especially given Arenas), if CBS didn’t interfere with my draft I’d actually have Ronnie Brewer to fill in for me while Arenas was out.

*No, I’m not really a megalomaniac and, yes, pretty much everyone loves their own draft before the season starts, but I’m usually fairly realistic with my fantasy teams. For example, Nels and I are participating in a mock draft over at Full Court Press Fantasy Basketball, where I would charitably say my draft up to this point has been adequate. Andrew Bynum in the 3rd ? Oy… I wish I could take that back.

It’s that time of year again! Player tiers! By position!

So what are player tiers? It’s the practice of grouping players of similar value into levels or tiers. The goal is to identify areas where there are large gaps in value between groups of players, so that there is a large drop off in value between the players in tier A and those in tier B. This not only simplifies drafting, it also helps you to identify times during a draft where it might be worthwhile to take a lesser ranked player at a certain position because he is the last guy available from his tier, while there maybe be plenty of similarly ranked players are other positions.

Let’s get the player tiers rolling with point guards. As always, these tiers are based on the ones available in our positional tiers spreadsheet, which will be updated throughout the fall. Players are listed under their tier along with their position on our Big Board.

Tier 1 – The Undisputed Champ

Chris Paul (1)

What more can be said about Paul? He’ll go somewhere in the top 4 picks in every draft and should go number one.

Tier 2 – The Stars (But are you comfortable building a team around these guys?)

Allen Iverson (12)
Baron Davis (15.5)

It’s a bit of strange year for fantasy drafts. After the Dirk/KG/Wade/Brand/Marion tier in the first round, there is realistically about 10-12 guys you could pick after that and feel like you made a good pick. Despite his age, Iverson is probably the best PG to go after other than Paul (now that Agent Zero and his knee are a bit of an unknown). Iverson has played long enough and with enough consistency on the Nuggets that we know he’s going to be a 25 and 7 guy. Davis has the ability to put better numbers overall than Iverson and had a better year than him last year, but it’s still tough to trust B-Diddy farther than you can see his beard.

Tier 3 – The Studs

Chauncey Billups (20)
Steve Nash (28.5)
Deron Williams (28.5)
Jose Calderon (32)
Gilbert Arenas (29)

I seriously considered putting Billups in the second tier, but I just didn’t like the way that tickled my giblets. He did finish 13th on the GMTR 9-cat rater last season (24th in 8-cat leagues), and while he is getting older, Billups is a year younger than Iverson. What I don’t like about Billups is that his minutes dropped from 36 to 32 a game last season. Thanks to some good percentages, his fantasy game has remained strong, but the counting stats have been on the slow decline since 2006.

Calderon and Williams each have their group of admirers who are a little too willing to reach for them in drafts. They both should be in for good years, just try not to reach for them too soon.

And poor Gilbert Arenas. Either you’re the type of owner that would consider Arenas on your team for the right price, in which case you’re silently nodding your head in agreement with him in this tier, or you’re the type of owner who will never allow Arenas near one of your fantasy teams ever again, in which case you’re starting to foam at the mouth that I’d even consider putting Arenas in the same tier as Billups.

Tier 4 – Solid Veterans

Jason Kidd (47.5)
Mo Williams (50.5)
Andre Miller (57.5)

There is nothing to be ashamed about if you wait until this tier to grab your first point guard. Dallas Kidd is never going to be the player he was with New Jersey (there is no way he’s averaging 8 rebounds a game anymore, for example), although his assist numbers are still Kidd-like at 9+ a game. Mo Williams joins LeBron this season, which people generally agree is going to be good for his fantasy prospects. And Andre Miller’s assist totals should be happy to see Elton Brand. If you do draft Miller, just keep an eye out for everyone’s favorite super-sleeper, Louis Williams, who could steal some minutes away from the veteran.

Tier 5 – Risks and Rewards and Devin Harris

Monta Ellis (79)
Kirk Hinrich (78)
Leandro Barbosa (77)
Devin Harris (81.5)
Mike Bibby (86.5)

Devin Harris is the only sure thing in this tier – a tier full of risk and (possibly) reward. Ellis, fresh off his breakout season, injured his ankle while “outdoors” (a very dangerous place, if I do say so myself). He’ll be out until sometime in December at the earliest, and could be affected by the injury for the rest of the year. Hinrich is coming off a bad fantasy year, although if you examine the numbers, it was solely due to a decrease in minutes. With the Bulls drafting Derrick Rose, it could be more of the same for Hinrich in 08/09. Like Hinrich, Leandro Barbosa took a step back last season minutes-wise thanks to the general good health of all the Suns guards. Barring injuries, it should be more of the same for Leandro as well.

Tier 6 – Solid Number Twos

Rajon Rondo (90)
Rafer Alston (92)
TJ Ford (97.5)
Anthony Carter (100)
Derek Fisher (102)
Jameer Nelson (106)
Tony Parker (109) - By popular demand - Tony gets bumped up to tier 6. Your love is so contagious, I even moved him up a few spots on my player rankings.

It’s a tier full of serviceable second point guards who have limited amounts of upside. Rondo might have some, but to say his offensive game is still rough is a little understatement – he was passing up open lay-ups in the NBA finals. I’m not going to believe his shot has improved until I can see it with my very own eyes. The rest of these guys are pretty much who we think they are, although it should be noted that TJ Ford might not be the super injury risk he’s assumed to be.

Tier 7 – Maaaaybe Something Good is in Store

Derrick Rose (111.5)
Tony Parker (111.5)
Raymond Felton (113)
Nate Robinson (116)
Beno Udrih (115.5)
Ramon Sessions (122)
Russell Westbrook (119)

Tier 7 is kinda like the tier 6 only with a little more risk. Both Sessions and Udrih came out of nowhere to earn starting jobs last season. Sessions averaged an insane 7.5 assists in only 26 and a half minutes a game last season. Great, right? Well, the Bucks aren’t so sure. They signed Luke Ridnour this off season, which will probably result in some kind of point guard sharing role between Sessions and Ridnour.

According to our Big Board, Derrick Rose should be the first rookie PG taken, which shouldn’t be a surprise. Although Russell Westbrook should also get every opportunity in Oklahoma to at least be in the mix, if not start.

Tier 8 – The Rest

Earl Watson (133.5)
Jerryd Bayless (134.5)
Jordan Farmar (142.5)
Louis Williams (147)
Jason Williams (151.5)
Antonio Daniels (162)
Mike Conley (163.5)
Delonte West (178.5)
Chris Duhon (182)
DJ Augustin (173.5)
Steve Blake (176)
Luke Ridnour (180)
Marcus Williams (189) - like Antonio Daniels, Williams should get some run at the beginning of the season filling in for Monta Ellis.
Stephon Marbury (194)

It’s the end of the draft and you need one more point guard. This is what you’ll be looking at. Louis Williams is probably the best of the bunch, however, he’s blocked behind Andre Miller at the moment. With the Gilbert Arenas injury, Daniels will be the Wizards’ starter for at least a month and maybe longer. Mike Conley is worth taking a chance on - add a few more minutes a game to his rookie season and he’d be more like a tier 6 guy. The Knicks signed Chris Duhon to be their starter, so, you know, he’ll be starting. Maybe. Nels seems to hate the guy, probably because he had to watch him play for 4 years in Chicago.

Inside of the Give Me The Rock Fantasy Draft Guide, you will find player previews for 248 humans who play basketball in the NBA. Patrick and I have taken the time to write at least one sentence for each of those players. We didn’t get around to doing the rookies, but I think we’ll do that via posts on the site (mostly just so we can get this thing going). Yes, you can all chime in with your Gob Bluth style “Come On!’s”

Okay. Still reading? Still want a draft guide? I’m sure you’ll want it as soon as possible so you can begin assimilating the fairly massive amount of information contained within. As such, let me tell you how we’re working this.

There are nearly an infinite number of ways in which you can acquire your very own copy of the Give Me The Rock Fantasy Draft Guide. The easiest is to put a link to this post (or another post, if you like) on your website. Okay, maybe that’s not the easiest way, but more just the one we really want you to do.

Now, I’m sure a ton of people are like “I don’t have a website!” You may not realize it, but in some abstract sense, you probably do. Do you post on some sort of fantasy basketball forum? Maybe you have a profile over on BallHype? Do you have a Twitter account? Do you see where I’m going with this? All that is required is that you pimp Give Me The Rock on the internet somewhere. Send a link to your pimpage to givemetherock[at]gmail.com and we will decide (on a case by case basis) if you’ve earned a copy of the Draft Guide. I’m making it sound like some sort of Olympic Gymnastics judging scheme, but really, just do the pimping and you’ll probably get a PDF in response. It’ll be about 200K in size, so don’t worry about clearing out your inbox or anything. You can even send an email to, say, 5 or more friends telling them how awesome GMTR is and BCC givemetherock[at]gmail. We’ll take that.

If you really can’t think of any way to promote GMTR on the internet, and you don’t have any friends to spam with an email about GMTR, then write us with your sad story about how you’re just a blogger who lives in their mom’s basement and posts shit that real journalists only wish they could get away with, and we’ll see. If you’re really that pathetic, who are we to deny you the sweet, sweet joy of reading the Give Me The Rock Fantasy Draft Guide.

Speaking of pimpage… I’m sure you thought this post was over… but I want to throw out a link to Full Court Press Fantasy Basketball because Michael Sardone edited the crap out of the Fantasy Draft Guide (very literally). PROPS. Shanghai World Financial Center sized props.

Well, there goes that highly ranked Point Guard:

The Warriors announced Wednesday that Ellis will miss at least three months after undergoing surgery on his left ankle.

Scott Sargent at DroppingDimes gets the square for sending me an email about the injury.

Here’s what I say… if Monta is out for 3 months (starting today) that’s Nov. 27th. In Scott’s quote from Marc Stein, they say possibly 4 months. Obviously he’s going to move down the draft board, but if it’s November 27th, he’ll miss about 15 games. That’s 18.29% of the season. For those in H2H leagues, it might not be as big a deal, but for roto leagues, that is a straight 18% decrease in value. If he’s gone till the end of December, it’s around 30 games. Which simple math tells us is 36% of the season. I’m going to assign rough estimates of 64 at the “best case” end and 120 at the “worst case” end. I realize that’s a large spectrum, but right now on the GMTR Big Board I’m being optimistic and leaving him at 64.

As for the rest of the Warriors…

Does this mean it’s time to look at Marco Belinelli again?

No… like Sarge, we’re going to go with Marcus Williams as the top choice for PG while Monta is out. Of course, Kelenna Azubuike, Corey Maggette, and Stephen Jackson all get increased scoring opportunities during the injured one’s absence. I’ve moved them up a few spots on the Big Board, but with several players splitting the potential for only a temporary increase in stats, it’s hard to say if any of them is going to be a big winner here.

Because everybody loves lists!

I tried to come up with 10 guys, but really these are the only ones who stood out as either men-of-the-minute because of what they did last season, or are guys who I feel are perennially overvalued and taken higher than they should be. Maybe I’m just being pessimistic, but these are the guys that I probably won’t be drafting because someone else is likely to overpay for them. Feel free to add to the list in the comments if you think I’ve overlooked some guys who won’t be overlooked on draft day.

Note: I would still draft these guys if I felt like I could get good value for my pick. I just think that in drafts this year, these players won’t be around by the time I feel like they should be taken.

7. Danny Granger - There’s no better way for fantasy basketball managers to look like they know what they’re doing than to pick last year’s hot player. Granger leads off the list because he’ll still be an awesome fantasy player this season… I just feel like I need to temper some expectations.

6. Yao Ming - Yes, he’s a dominant player at a relatively scarce position. But he’s also played an average of 53 games over the past 3 years, and he’s banged up from the Olympics, and has a new (but crazy) teammate to take some of the pressure off of him on both ends of the floor. Of course, Head-to-Head managers need not worry about Ming as much as Rotisserie managers. But all should still be wary.

5. Jamario Moon - From off the chart to #59 on the Player Rater. Another example of jumping on the hot player bandwagon. Moon will be a decent fantasy player this season, but with Jermaine O’Neal on the Raptors, it will be hard for him to reach the heights of last year.

4. Josh Smith - Smith finished at #38 on the Player Rater, making him a find 3rd round selection, but you know someone is going to go for him in the 2nd. You just know it.

3. Dwight Howard - Read this closely: #73 on the Player Rater. Yes, he’ll play 82 games for you. Yes, he will also kill any chance you have of winning the FT% category. For H2H, that’s probably an acceptable risk. Just remember that after you pick Howard in the 3rd round, you must ignore the free throw shooting of every other player on the board when drafting. The only possible exception is if you already have Kobe on your team, and you’re planning on taking Corey Maggette later (and considering Maggette should be drafted in the low 60’s where Howard should also be drafted, it’s kind of a big risk you’re taking there).

2. Deron Williams - Patrick and I have him slotted slightly higher than his #39 ranking on the Player Rater from 07-08. But I think people kind of imagine him as a poor man’s Chris Paul, and since only one person will get Paul, others will want to go with Williams in the second round.

1. Michael Beasley - This is just the Youth Tax in it’s most obvious incarnation. Yes, Beasley is going to be a good rookie. Probably even Rookie of the Year. But he’s still the 3rd option behind Dwyane Wade and Shawn Marion. And the Heat have a capable PF in Udonis Haslem, who played 36 minutes per game last season. Someone is probably going to take Beasley before the 8th round, and you can let them have him.