Give Me The Rock

or: Time to hit the bars for the free cable!

First of all, fill out your bracket on BallHype.com. Somehow - I blame statistics - the more people that register, the less chance I have of actually winning. And you’d think, since I didn’t win a damn thing this season, that I’d be desperately trying to win something. But, I’m so over it.

Okay, but not over it enough to not go over it. Worry not, I’ll make it quick. From top to bottom:

• Kentucky Fried Basketball Association: 2nd place (of 16). I had the best record in the league and lost by 11 points to the guy with the second best record: 225 - 214. Those 11 points represent about 5% of the total score, so you can see how close it is. I blame Tayshaun.
• Dropping Dimes Experts League: 4th place (of 12). I was lucky enough to be in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place for much of the season. Then editor_njt64 from TalentedMrRoto.com jumped 5.5 points in the standings on the last day of the season. Before that, I don’t think I’d seen anyone get more than a +2 on a given day. How the Hell did that happen? Seriously! I’d again like to place some of the blame on Tayshaun, but also, some of the fault is mine for hoping that Andre Iguodala and Jermaine O’Neal would play while I had Bostjon Nachbar and Travis Outlaw on my bench. Really, though, I’m satisfied with my effort. Since I’m now confident in my drafting ability, I will focus on my close out next season.
• HoopsAddict.com League: 19th place (of 24). This team was kind of like the Memphis Grizzlies of fantasy basketball… Injuries galore, and no good way to make up for them in a points league with 24 teams. I’ve ranted about that one before, so I’ll leave it at that.

And that’s that.

Now, I realize that Chicago is taking on the Defending NBA Champion Miami Heat, but the Bulls are in one of only two series that are being broadcast on ABC. So, really, the subtitle should read “Time to use the playoffs as an excuse to hit the bars for the nachos and the beers.” Nachos and Beers, Babies!

or: The end of the something I did not want to end,
Begining of hard times to come.
But something that was not meant to be is done,
And this is the start of what was.
- The Streets, Empty Cans

A recent report shows that this blog is at risk of becoming a General NBA Blog and losing it’s precious status as a Fantasy Basketall Blog. I’m considering joining the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. I imagine this would give us (and by us, I mean, me - since Patrick has actually got the skills to hold down his cred without “paid-for” credentials) more respectability, some extra junk mail, and perhaps even some sort of authority when it comes to fantasy basketball. Until then, here’s some fantasy links…

CBS Sportsline has an extensive lineup of Fantasy Awards.

ProFantasySports.com (whose representative has overtaken me for the #2 spot in the Dropping Dimes Experts League) has some things to think about during the off-season.

And Fantasy Basketblog is off to their summer break. Of course, with the brilliant work they do, they deserve it. This blog runs year round to make up for lack of quality with strength in quantity. I haven’t seen 300, but I’d imagine if I had, I could make a good metaphor at this point. If you’ve seen it, feel free to imagine one riiiiiiight… now.

I’ll hit you up tomorrow with my league wrap-up, and my thoughts on the final playoff seeding. Until then, think about this: Triple-Header on Sunday!

or: Just waiting for it all to go downhill

I’ve put Rasual Butler into my lineup this week. So, if you picked him up from free agency like I did, be warned. He’s probably only got 1 or 2 more good games. It was going well for Linus, JR, Bostjan, and Brian Skinner. But if you look last night’s box scores, you can see the “Nels Free Agent Curse” in action.

TwoTimesRalphi over at PistonsForum.com is asking what people are doing about Wade in their fantasy leagues. The only response I saw when visiting the site was from LA Dre:

I was holding on to him, but not sure why. it looks like by the time he comes back the fantasy playoffs will be just about ending. I will probably release him this week when I need another able body for stats.

Patrick has another response for you over here. And I’ve got one for you right here… in some kind of f’in depth.

Now, in general, what it’s going to come down to, is The Replacements. AKA, who do you have that can take over for Wade? As much as number phreaks want it to be, fantasy basketball isn’t an perfectly numbers oriented science. And even if it was, who carries around SAS or SPSS on their computer and knows how to run them? Probably just Patrick.

So, let’s break it down as best we can, first by H2H vs. Roto, because when considering a fantasy player of Wade’s caliber, you must be thorough.

H2H

If you’re headed to the playoffs, keep him. If he is able to come back for any of the last few weeks of the season, he will help you through the playoffs just as he helped get you there.

If you’re not so confident about making the playoffs, trade him. Unless you’re in a shallow league, there’s probably not someone good enough in the Free Agent pool to make it worth dropping Wade. But if you can trade him for one or two (yes, I’m possibly actually advocating a 2-for-1 trade here) decent players, use Wade’s future potential for some added punch that will help you get to the playoffs. And then just hope you don’t have to play the team to which you traded him.

If you’re not going to make the playoffs no matter what, then honestly, you’ve wasted one of the season’s best fantasy players anyway, so you might as well just go down with the ship.

Take that spanking

If you are in a keeper league, and you are able to keep Wade around for next season, then by all means, do that. He’s young enough that he should be able to make a full recovery after some summer surgery.

Roto

The same sort of rules used for the H2H analysis apply here:

If you’re leading the categories Wade is good at, then you can wait for him to come back and finish you off. If you need help, or if you don’t have any decent replacements already on your roster, then the numbers will come into play. With Roto, you don’t have to worry about week to week numbers, so you can basically take a Free Agents’ (or trade prospects’) average numbers (I’d recommend looking at not just season, but also the last month averages), multiply those numbers by the number of games they have left and then compare that to a similar measure for the number of games you think Wade will play if/when he comes back. (Make sure to be a little conservative in your estimate for Wade, since he probably won’t be at 29, 8, and 5)

Take a high number and a low number for your Wade estimate. If his totals will match a Free Agent’s or traded player’s numbers somewhere in that range, then you’ll have to decide what your level of confidence is that he’ll play that number of games.

If there’s a Free Agent available whose total estimated stats will be higher than Wade’s even if Wade plays Patrick’s max estimate of 16 games (this should be more likely the smaller your league is), then it’s probably worth it to make the pick up.

Of course, this is still a heartbreakingly personal process. Every game you wait to acquire more information on Wade’s status is another game you lose having someone else play. If you wait for Wade, but Shaq continues to carry the team into the playoffs, then maybe Wade will wait out the rest of the season to save himself for the playoffs, and you’ve lost 23 games that someone else could have played. That’s a lot of statistical accumulation.

On the other hand, if the Heat are just barely in contention for the playoffs, and Shaq is playing decently, it’s not hard for one to imagine Wade coming back and carry half the team on his one good shoulder while Shaq uses a shoulder for the other half. Even with an arm in sling, Wade can probably pass and rebound pretty decently.

Gratuitous cheerleader pic

Gratuitous Gene Hackman pic

Made it this far? Okay, then you deserve my bottom line. If you’ve already held Wade for the 2 weeks since his injury, it’s probably worth it to keep him for another 3 and hope he comes back strong. That’s my strategy in the Dropping Dimes Experts League. But then, I’m top 3 there right now. Your situation might warrant a Replacement Player to carry your cheerleader ass through the season.

You can always ask for advice for your specific situation via comments, email, or fora.

or: Don’t nobody want to see me and LaMarcus together, but it don’t matter, no, cause I got Garbajosa

Add: LaMarcus Aldridge (Por - SF,PF,C)
Drop: Anderson Varejao (Cle - SF,PF,C)

I’m not exactly sure what the impetus here was, but I guess you could say that LaMarcus is on his way up while Anderson is just sort of frustratingly inconsistent, and not living up to the double-double machine he could be. I’ve been eying (or eyeing - which Firefox actually says is wrong) Aldridge for a while and actually picked him up once or twice. He rewarded me with worst 3 game stretches of the season. I recently picked up Jorge Garbajosa as my SFPFC, and he was kind enough to pull a LaMarcus on me and pull out his worst 3 game stretch in 2 months. Not sure how you get 3 points and 4 rebounds in 33 minutes of basically garbage time against the “T-Mac is The Team” Rockets. He is 6-9, right?

Jorge Garbajosa drives for 2 of his 3 points against the Rockets
REUTERS/Tim Johnson

Add: Luther Head (Hou - PG,SG)
Drop: Shaun Livingston (INJ) (LAC - PG)

I’m taking the easy way out on this one. Obviously you want to be dropping Shaun Livingston. And also not drafting him next season. Or ever. Never ever. Never. Ever.

or: How JR Smith wants to be like Baron Davis; Dwyane Wade wants to be like Steve Nash; and it’s hard to be America’s Next Top Model when the only guy with no eyeliner is messing up your hair

(Yes, I’m aware the picture has nothing to do with Dwyane Wade or JR Smith, but I thought the title of the post was pretty clever and I’ve been waiting for a week to use these pictures)

Might as well kick things off with a little bit o the Fantasy Basketblog post entitled Flash in a Wheelchair:

[Shaq’s] 20/16 with 1 block on 9-of-15 shooting qualifies as his best game of the year, while even a few years ago that was pretty much a ho-hum Shaq Daddy evening.

Really, that’s all there is to it. If Jason Kapono is still available, he’s certainly a good pickup, but it’s hard to see him maintaining his percent-style production without Wade out there to draw fire. Shaq will help in that respect, but as my FBB homies said, it’s hard to say if he can still kick old school. Especially if Wade throws in the towel for a hospital gown.

Someone else needs a hospital gown.

If you’re looking for someone to replace Wade - say, if you just traded away LeBron James to acquire him and now you’re worried about your team - you’ll probably have to look on teams that are not in Miami and not wearing Heat uniforms. Of course, with no obvious trade deadline opportunities, you’ll have to do some quick math to figure out how to have a chance in hell of hanging on. CBS Sportsline has these recommendations:

The best players out there who are owned in less than 50 percent of leagues on CBS SportsLine are Charlie Bell of the Bucks, Toronto’s Anthony Parker and Jose Calderon, Jerry Stackhouse of the Mavericks and Utah’s Derek Fisher. They are suitable injury replacements but not players you want to start on a consistent basis, especially for a playoff run.

Now, for the second presentation of our double feature, JR Smith. He’s probably not going to have a major impact since I’d assume/hope that he was a later round pick for most people. So, if your earlier picks were solid enough to hang onto until now, they should be able to at least make up some of the ground you stand to lose in the next 3-4 weeks.

Here’s my question, though, how does knee surgery put you out for 3 weeks, while shoulder surgery is potentially season-ending?? That just doesn’t equate in my mind.

And once again, there’s not actually that much to say about this situation. Yakouba Diawara and Linas Kleiza could see time at SG, but really, it’s just going to be Allen Iverson playing more minutes and getting the boost in fantasy value. Kleiza might gain some fantasy value if his minutes get up to the 30 minute mark consistently. He’s been given 25 - 34 minutes over the past 5 games and has gone for about 12 and 5 with a little over 1 three. That’s not bad, but his FG% isn’t great and he had only 2 steals and 0 blocks in those 5 games.

Finally, if it makes you feel any better about your team, I’ve got Wade, Smith and Baron Davis filling up my 3 roster spots in the Dropping Dimes league and Brevin Knight, Chuck Hayes, and Corliss Williamson on my bench in the HoopsAddict.com league. Yeah, I’m seriously thinking about Salary Cap games these days…

or: How I learned to Love Rotisserie Leagues and Also Realize that They’re basically a Points Formula where you don’t have to come up with the Point Weights yourself

RotoPoll didn’t start my thought process with this post, but it’s a good one about how valuable players are in certain categories in terms of rarity. Then, Philthy over at Fantapedia (Your fantasy basketball encyclopedia) has an excellent essay slash dissertation on the value of Turnovers in Roto Leagues. Both of these posts play with something I’ve been thinking about since I was invited to be part of the DroppingDimes Expert’s Leauge. Basically, that thought I’ve been mulling is: Roto is actually pretty great. I’ve written about Roto vs. Head-to-Head before, and if I wanted to look harder, I’m sure I could find something in the archives to show how mean I was to Roto in the past. I’ve always like H2H better before, and I still think it’s probably more fun and better for casual fantasy players (one of the reasons a writer can actually make money writing about Fantasy Football).

Last year, I tried to have (well, actually I was moderately successful in achieving) a points-based Head-to-Head league modeled after John Hollinger’s “Game Rank” system. It’s wasn’t his full system since that uses statistics to standardize players much like Patrick does with his Free Fantasy Basketball Player Rater. This year, though, the points-based league in which I am participating is being run by someone who is not me, and I am not very satisfied with the scoring system. (Those two items are not actually correlated; they just happen to be facts that I placed next to each other in a sentence) Anyway, I realized that the reasons I’m not happy with it are:

1. The commissioner tried to model the statistical “weight” (if you will) of each category so that the number of points is based on relative rarity of the statistic. I.e., steals, assists, etc. are worth more than points. I mean, it only makes sense to do it that way, but it doesn’t work for me unless you have an actual, statistically determined weight. Otherwise, you’re just throwing numbers out there cause they sound like they’ll work.
2. There are 24 teams in the league, which is WAY too many for a points based league. It might actually be more fun for a Roto league with that many people. The problem is that there is no way to pick up a player who is going to help you more than anyone who is already on your team. The only exceptions are when you have an injured player (because some points are better than no points), or when you can pick up someone whose teammate is injured giving them a temporary spike in playing time.

Basically these two reasons have led me to see the light as far as Rotisserie scoring is concerned. Of course, I still think that points-based leagues work well (perhaps better) for weekly Head-to-Head leagues. But if you’re going to have a straight run at the championship starting from Day 1 with every stat from every game counting towards the final outcome, then Rotisserie scoring is clearly the best way to do it. Roto weights the categories for you, so you don’t have to figure out what point values to assign to the available statistics. Roto also makes it possible to pick up a player off the waiver wire who can actually help you. Guys like Daniel Gibson who may or may not get a bunch of fantasy points in a points system can certainly help you pick up a few extra threes if you’re in need of some support in that category. In a roto league, you can trade LeBron for Dwyane if the other guy has a high FT percentage, but needs three pointers. In a points league (assuming rational owners), if LeBron isn’t getting as many points as Dwyane, that trade just isn’t going to happen.

So, that’s my post. But it’s like a FreeDarko thing (without the random pictures) where this isn’t by any means the end of the discussion. Really, it’s just the beginning of what is likely to be an ever-changing fantasy landscape. Feel free to continue the discussion by leaving a comments (IE users should be able to post them again), or you can check out the thread I started in the Give Me The Rock Forums (aka Fora)!