Give Me The Rock

Okay, so the headline is kind of misleading since Brandon Roy was actually 30th out of 39 players last night. But watching his last-less-than-a-second shot crystallized the difference between fantasy and reality. There is a game we play, and it’s not always the game they play. But this blog is about the game WE play, so let’s get back to it.

Line of the Night: In the loss, Tracy McGrady (0.90) had 28/6/8 on a very good (for him) 47% of 23 shots, adding 2 steals and a block. That’s some vintage first/second round T-Mac right there.

Honorable Mentions: He’s not Mr. Double-Double yet, but I picked him up a few days ago in the GMTR Readers League: Travis Outlaw (0.83) had 14/13/1 with 2 threes, a steal, and 2 blocks.

Hedo Turkoglu (0.79) had 20/8/3 with 2 threes, 2 steals, and a block. LaMarcus Aldridge (0.64) could have been a Bull, but instead we have Mr. Consistency and a white guy who is, I guess, still on the roster. Meanwhile, Aldridge had 25/9/2 with 3 blocks while making 63% of 19 shots.

Jameer Nelson (0.60) had 16/4/9 with a three and 2 steals on 50% from the floor.
Rashard Lewis (0.46) had 20/8/4 with 3 threes and a steal, but only shot 35% from the field and 60% from the line.
Finally, Samuel Dalembert (0.42) had 10/14/1 with 2 blocks and shot 62.5%.

Waiver Wire Line of the Night: Clearly if Travis Outlaw is available, he’s the go to guy for last night. He only shot 41.7%, but the good thing is that means he qualifies under Patrick’s Less Than 70% rule.

I’m going to end it there because really, the other guys who might be available only made the list because there were only two games last night.

The Biggest Loser: Stephon Marbury, who is evidently contemplating a training stint with Lincoln High School in New York. Ouch. Nothing like getting kicked out of the NBA to help coach your high school basketball team.

Really, though… my man crush Elton Brand (-0.38) went 3/8 last night for 6 points. He did have 12 rebounds, but he missed both free throw opportunities, and didn’t get a steal or block a shot. Not gonna cut it for a first round pick.

All Eyez On Me: This is the inaugural edition of AEOM. I just made it up yesterday, but Patrick agreed it was a cool idea, so here goes. Basically, I was feeling like there’s so many ways to watch basketball these days and so many games available on a typical night (even if you don’t have cable, like me), you may want (or not, in which case, you can skip down to the next section) some advice on which will be the most interesting games from a Fantasy Perspective. If this ends up being more trouble than it’s worth, we reserve the right to discontinue it at any time. That said, there’s a lot of games on tonight…

New York @ Washington: I think most people are still trying to figure out which Knicks are going to be the fantasy stars, so anytime there’s a Knicks game, it’s probably worth watching.

Minnesota @ Sacramento: The Return of Brad Miller. What’s going to happen to everyone’s favorite early pickups Spencer Hawes and Jason Thompson?

Detroit @ New Jersey: AI.

Dallas @ Denver: Chauncey.

Friday’s Tiny Dancer: I watched parts of the ORL/PHI game last night on TNT’s OverTime streaming thing (there was a link from Yahoo’s NBA page - don’t ask me how to get there if you’re actually looking for it), and if you like being at the game more than watching a broadcast, this might be for you. There’s no commercials so instead they show the arena during the breaks. And by arena, I mean you get to see the dance teams in action. Last night, Philly was in Orlando (I should have stayed up for the other game, but since it was in Portland, that wasn’t going to happen). In honor of the Magic win and me watching the game in their arena…

Rachael:

And a bonus, Brittany:

Before I get to talking about the GMTR Monster League (which will be soon), where I somehow went 3-4-2 last week despite playing both Marcus Camby and Baron Davis, here is one more draft recap from the Readers League. The following is reprinted with permission from reader Terrance, who left the following impressive comment after my post about the walking injury list I drafted in the Readers league.

Terrance, I’ll hit you up with that 1,000 Shrute bucks I owe you next time I see you around the office.

ok fellas, I don’t blog. I just read them. Here’s my draft breakdown. Maybe I drafted a player some reader has and they want a breakdown of that player. So here goes.

1. (12) Chris Bosh
I was crossing my fingers that Chris Paul would fall to me at #12, but he went at one. With CP3 gone, I decided to go big, I did this in most of my drafts this season. After Bosh, Jefferson, Brand, Boozer, Duncan, and Camby there’s a small drop off to Dwight Howard and then a huge drop to the next tier of Centers. Fact is, I wouldn’t have got any top C’s if I didn’t draft them now.

2. (13) Al Jefferson
I did think about Deron Williams here, but not for long. I think people are too high on him. I think TJ ford may offer similar (but still significantly less) value and provide more steals. So I went with Al Jefferson, I think he’s a rock solid pick to pair with bosh

3. (36) Carmelo Anthony
I don’t know why I draft him, but I always seem to. Maybe it’s the solid %s, or the solid rebs. I don’t do it for points, I don’t care about points much. I just think his game is finally rounding out. Anthony should provide better numbers than last season. With this said, Iguodala is who I wanted and went at #35.

4. (37) Vince Carter
I like the value for this pick. Carter seems to be overlooked and underrated. Will have another good year, but we know how he gets when he’s stuck on a losing team. That’s my only worry, the phantom injuries. Would have taken Iguodala and Carter here if I had my way.

5. (60) Stephen Jackson
Really didn’t want another SF, there’s too many swingmen late in the draft who have value to draft them early. With that said, I have Vince Carter and Stephen Jackson who both should get me 5+ assists/game and provide other great #s. When I saw Jackson starting to fall, I was hoping he’d make it to me, I have him #46 on my spreadsheet.

6. (61) Manu Ginobli
Ok, I could’ve went in a couple directions here. I was in the GMTR league last season and they do weekly updates, so having an injured player on your roster for this H2H league isn’t as killer as it would normally be. I was eyeing Jamal Crawford here, but I think Crawford’s value tops out in the mid 30s, and Manu tops out is the early to mid 20s. This was a value pick and I felt that Ginobli’s FG% was a little more suited for my team.

7. (84) Randy Foye
Like clockwork, I started drafting my PGs where I see the best bang for the buck. I wanted TJ Ford here, but he went 2-3 picks before mine. Rounds 7-9 are the sweetspots to grab some pretty good guards in my opinion. You get starters who get minutes and will run their teams well.

8. (85) Kirk Hinrich
See above. I will add that I don’t see much of a drop off from Devin Harris and Mo Williams to these two guards in Foye in Hinrich, but they go about 20 picks higher and I was able to land Manu and Jackson with those two picks 2 rounds ago. If that makes sense.

9. (108) Jameer Nelson
Not really a favorite or anything, I wanted Conley or JR Smith, both were taken about 5 picks before mine. So this was IMO the last acceptable guard available since Beno Udrih was already taken.

10. (109) Drew Gooden
This is my sleeper and has been in every draft. Out of my 4 leagues, I got him in 3. His game is ok and should provide better value than where he is being picked. But there are a ton of minutes in Chicago’s frontcourt to produce.

11. (132) Kyle Korver
Eh, whatever, right? A bench player who will get 25 min a game and drop 1.5 threes and keep my FT ok with his 2 FTA/game at 90%. Not much to like unless brewer goes down with an injury. But this is where championships are won, late in the draft.

12. (133) Tyrus Thomas
I like him, but I hope he’s not the new Stromile Swift. The minutes are there in Chicago as I mentioned before. Can he produce with a new coach pushing for the up tempo pace that the suns had? Worth a flier at least.

13. (156) Boris Diaw
Really just waiting for an injury or I’m in for the classic Diaw line of 9-4-4. Those #s are like clockwork, sadly.

Favorite picks:
Vince Carter
Stephen Jackson
Drew Gooden

Least Favorite:
Korver
maybe, Anthony?

As many of you already know, the GMTR Readers League draft happened last week. Nels commented on his team a while ago as did many others in the league, and it’s right about time I did the same. My comments are a little late, but they are worth the wait if you are curious to see how a real fantasy champion* drafts (it’s also about time seeing that the season has actually started). Here is my team with a description of what generally was going through my head the time as best I can remember:

1. (5) Shawn Marion (SF,PF)

My first semi-mistake of the draft! In round 1! And a reason why it is important to pay attention to position eligibility when you’re drafting. It was no surprise that the big 4 went in order, leaving me with the consolation prize at the fifth pick of Marion, Elton Brand, Dwayne Wade, or Dirk. I picked Marion because he has the potential to be the best of the 4 and I like how he brings everything to the table (though the same could be said for Dirk). However, I forgot that Brand qualifies at C in Yahoo leagues. Stupid, just stupid. LittleFlyingWarrior! happily snatched up Brand at 6.

2. (20) Rashard Lewis (SF,PF)

Marcus Camby was on the board and I thought about him in this spot, but I think he’s going to be in for a tough year and play in like 40 games. Instead, I went with Lewis, another player who I don’t like all that much, but should complement Marion nicely and play in more games than Camby. There is nothing like getting 3 threes a game from your PF and 11 boards from your SF. It all evens out in the end, I guess.

3. (29) Marcus Camby (C)

Ok, it was obvious at this point that no one in the league wanted to touch Camby with a 10-foot pole, myself included. But him falling to 29 was ridiculous, he had fallen so far that I literally was forced to draft him by the fantasy gods. The fact that the league starts 2 centers made it an even easier call.

…what, he’s already hurt?

4. (44) Antawn Jamison (SF,PF)

At this point, my draft is quickly turning into Patrick’s big bag o’ value picks, as I went with my fourth big man in four picks. But I couldn’t pass up Jamison at 44, especially when he finished 18, 23, and 24 on the GMTR player rater over the past 3 years. Provided everyone stays healthy, I don’t think rebounds are going to be a problem for this team.

5. (53) Mo Williams (PG)

Straight up position pick here. 2nd Round Reach snagged Devin Harris at pick 50 and In Baclao We Trust selected Andre Miller at 52, meaning that Williams was the last tier 4 PG remaining. I’m not particularly jazzed about Williams, but you’ve got to separate your emotions from your team if your goal is to win.

Yes! My team finally has some assists.

6. (68) Jermaine O’Neal (PF,C)

The start of round six coincided with a run of players I would have loved to have: Josh Howard, Corey Maggette, Jamal Crawford, Jason Terry. With those guys all gone, I went for O’Neal - a guy I’ve been targeting in a bunch of leagues. I think there is a 50% chance he returns to his old form, a 50% chance he plays at a reduced level like last year, and a 50% chance he misses a bunch of games. I’ll take those chances.

7. (77) Andrei Kirilenko (SF,PF)

Even when he’s on, AK is extremely frustrating to have on your team, as I’ve experienced quite a few times. I don’t know why I picked him here, I must have blacked out during this pick.

8. (92) John Salmons (SG,SF)

I like when I can make upside picks like Salmons without having to reach for it – as 92 is later than I’ve seen him go in other drafts. At this point in the draft I needed guys who I could throw in at the guard position while all but conceded the assists category. If only he still qualified at PG, I could make the biggest big ball team in the history of fantasy basketball.

9. (101) Gilbert Arenas (PG)

Alpha_Terrance gambled on Manu Ginobili in the 6th round. Monta Ellis ended up going in the 10th. I think the 9th was a great spot to roll the dice with Arenas. Who should I have grabbed instead at this pick? Nick Collison?

…what, Camby is already hurt? Ok, maybe I should have.

10. (116) Shane Battier SF

Lets be honest here. Things are not looking great for Shane Battier. He lost his starting gig to Ron Artest and has missed the last four weeks with an inflamed left foot. He’ll be coming off the bench when he gets healthy which will be at some undetermined time in the future. However, despite not being able to score, he did finish 62 on the player rater last season thanks to the rest of his game - 5 boards/1 steal/1 block/1.7 threes. He’s not going to average 36 minutes a game this season, but in the 10th round I’ll take what he has to offer at 28-30 minutes.

11. (125) Raymond Felton (PG,SG)

Best PG available at this spot in the draft. He’ll average 14 and 7 and allows me to plug another PG during good matchup weeks.

12. (140) Jason Maxiell (PF,C)

Has since been dropped. Looks like Amir Johnson is going to be the man in Detroit. I could have made a better pick here, like the previously mentioned Amir Johnson who went 2 picks later or Matt Barnes who went at the end of the 12th (much to Nels’ chagrin).

13. (149) Ramon Sessions (PG,SG)

Back in the day, Fantasy Basketblog had a great theory about bench spots, especially for leagues with limited spots like the readers league. It went something like this: Always keep at least one bench spot available for quick waiver wire moves. While it’s great to have a deep team, if your bench is filled with good/undroppable players, then you are either going to miss out on some hot waiver wire action, or you be in the bad position of having to drop a good player to make a waiver wire move.

With that being said, Ramon Sessions is currently my “open” spot. If he can wrestle the starting job away from Luke Ridnour or Ridnour gets hurt early in the season, great - he’s a keeper - if not, he’ll be easily droppable when a better player becomes available on the wire.

In Summary

Overall, I’m pretty damn satisfied with this draft. I made some risky picks (Camby anyone?) but honestly, all my drafts are like that. I’m like the John McCain of fantasy drafting, In fact, I think that AK pick happened when I suspended my draft to help with the economic crisis.

I’m definitely going to need another center for when Camby and/or O’Neal miss time. It probably would have been a good idea to pick up one of those instead of wasting a pick on Jason Maxiell.

In the spirit of Nels’ team breakdown, here’s a visual breakdown of my team:
Regular text are solid picks
Bold are picks I’m very happy about
Strikethrough are picks I’m upset with
Italics are picks I’m just sort of kind of OK with

1. (5) Shawn Marion
2. (20) Rashard Lewis
3. (29) Marcus Camby
4. (44) Antawn Jamison
5. (53) Mo Williams
6. (68) Jermaine O’Neal
7. (77) Andrei Kirilenko
8. (92) John Salmons
9. (101) Gilbert Arenas
10. (116) Shane Battier
11. (125) Raymond Felton
12. (140) Jason Maxiell
13. (149) Ramon Sessions

*Not just hyperbole – I won last year’s readers league

Well, this and many other reasons, I’m sure.

Now… I must note that the following discussion does take place regarding a league in which Kirk Hinrich and Larry Hughes were (until recently) fighting for a starting SG spot while a superior talent (unfortuntely, Ben Gordon) didn’t even enter into the picture. That said…

Does Terry Porter realize that Grant Hill is better than Matt Barnes? I know he wants to stabilize his second string lineup, but, does he also realize that he’s screwing me as fantasy owner over? I just drafted Hill (and I did look at Barnes before making the pick), and now you’re telling me that instead of the nearly 32 minutes per game he had last season, he’ll be lucky to clock in at anything near that because Matt Barnes is younger and not as good?

EXAMPLE!

Matt Barnes guarding Jeff Green:

Copyright 2008 NBAE (Photo by Barry Gossage/NBAE via Getty Images)

Grant Hill guarding Jeff Green:

Copyright 2008 NBAE (Photo by Barry Gossage/NBAE via Getty Images)

So who would you want in the game?

That’s what I thought.

So, come on Terry Porter: Skeeter/Obama 2012 (aka Epicte’s team) already had the #1 pick. He doesn’t need this sudden burst in value from Matt Barnes. I, however, who took Grant Hill in the 9th round, do need him to shoot his high percentages, and score some points, and get some steals.

For anyone else still looking for draft advice: I believe it’s time to bump Hill down a few notches and move Barnes up a corresponding number. I’d still go with Hill over Barnes because his percentages are that much better, and they’ll probably end up with around the same amount of playing time since Porter does need Hill in the game, but unless Barnes starts shooting a ton more free throws, his 74% (career 70%) won’t really hurt you too much, and they’re fairly comparable in stats that don’t end in “entage.”

If there is a worse spot to be in a 12-team draft this season than 8th overall, I do not want to know what that spot is. In the GMTR Mock Draft Dirk Nowitzki went at 8, but lucky for me, he was off the board in this draft. I say that somewhat sarcastically since I really don’t like having Dirk on my fantasy teams, but with him gone, it left me having to choose between Dwyane Wade, Kevin Garnett, and Caron Butler. Garnett would probably have been the wisest choice, but would have consigned me to a Big Ball strategy with which I didn’t do so incredibly well in my previous real life draft. I don’t feel like Caron Butler is really worthy of a number 8 pick, but I am also very unsure if Wade will be either. Wade can play two positions, though, and that won me over in the end.

1. (8) Dwyane Wade PG,SG

After deciding on my Small Ball strategy, I needed someone to help out Wade’s only decent FT%.

2. (17) Chauncey Billups PG

Chauncey is a great FT% building block, and he also helps support Wade and forms a pretty formidable back court. I’ve been down on Chauncey for years for no particular reason, and finally got enough feedback about him this year that I psyched myself into seeing what happened if I took him. So, this pick was really for everyone who’s ever left a comment on GMTR.

3. (32) Paul Pierce SG,SF

I am very happy with this pick because Pierce gives me a SF (or just a regular F) who is excellent in PTS, STL, FT%, 3PTM, and decent in AST for a Forward.

4. (41) Rasheed Wallace PF,C

I was also fairly elated with this pick. I knew I needed either Sheed or Mehmet Okur in the 4th round. Okur was taken two picks before my pick, so I felt pretty lucky to have at least gotten one of the two (I was secretly hoping for both, but figured that wouldn’t happen - not with the crazy level of competition that was already evident in this league).

5. (56) Ray Allen SG

Here I decided to bide my time for two rounds to wait for Troy Murphy or Al Harrington (or, again, both of them would be even better). I’m not over the moon with Allen, but he’s good in 3PTM and FT%, and good enough in PTS and STL. His AST definitely leave something to be desired, especially for a Guard. I’m hoping that Wade, Billups, and Pierce are enough to keep me up there in AST.

6. (65) Jamal Crawford PG,SG

This was my first (and I believe only) truly bonehead pick. I mean, it wasn’t like I took Yao Ming in the 3rd round, but Crawford’s preseason hasn’t been all that positive. I’m just hoping that he learns to play in D’Antoni’s offense (you would think it would cater to his propensity to chuck threes (6 per game last season!) would fit right in. Evidently he likes to dribble too much. Hopefully he’ll realize that less dribble = more PT.

7. (80) Troy Murphy PF,C

Considering that Al Harrington was drafted only 7 picks after Crawford, I probably should have just gone ahead and taken him at that spot. I had him ranked at 82 or 83 on my pre-rankings, though, so I was waiting and hoping to get Murphy and Harrington with 80 and 89. Once again, at least I got one of them. This was absolutely crucial. Murphy is one of (as should be obvious from reading all this) the few Centers who perfectly complement a Small Ball strategy.

8. (89) Marvin Williams SF,PF

After losing out on Al Harrington, I desperately needed someone who could play PF. Williams was a pretty good compromise in that he can play the PF position, and he has a good FT% and good STL. His PTS are pretty decent compared to the other guys going in the 8th round.

9. (104) Grant Hill SG,SF

Just trying to balance the roster with this pick. I like Hill in general, and always feel like he’s got some upside potential. He’s helping me in STL and FT%, pretty decent for PTS, just below average in AST for a Guard, and will at least make a few threes. He might even help me in FG% if Jamal Crawford doesn’t single-handedly destroy that category for me.

10. (113) Derrick Rose PG

When I got to this point, I was completely rational, and knowing, of course, that Rose was ranked at 112.5 on the Give Me The Rock Big Board, I selected him at precisely that position.

NO HOMER!

In truth: I got Joakim Noah and Drew Gooden in my previous draft (that of the Big Ball strategy for the Battle of the Bloggers League), and was not satisfied, even in spite of the Goggles and the Spiky Goatee.

Photo by Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images

Honestly, the last three rounds I was kind of clutching at straws. Everybody else started taking their sleeper picks and taking guys who weren’t supposed to be up for another 20 picks. I got a little distracted. There wasn’t really anyone else I wanted to pick. Maybe some Derrick Rose letdown or something.

11. (128) Derek Fisher PG

STL, FT%, 3PTM. Some AST and PTS. Good enough.

12. (137) Andres Nocioni SF,PF

Felt like I needed a backup PF, so I went with the guy with the highest FT% among the remaining PFs who were draftable. It helps that he has good 3s and upside in PTS.

13. (152) DeShawn Stevenson SG

Since I wasn’t in the market for Andray Blatche, I went with the other Washington Wizard who should see some slightly higher numbers than their season averages from 07-08 might indicate. DeShawn only averages 11 PPG, but has 12-13 during the time Arenas was out. His 3PTM for the season was only 1.9, but again, with Arenas gone, he went from 1.1 to 2.8, 3.1, and 2.1 in the months before Arenas’ return.

In summary, here’s a visual breakdown:
Regular text are solid picks
Bold are picks I’m very happy about
Strikethrough are picks I’m upset with
Italics are picks I’m just sort of kind of OK with

1. (8) Dwyane Wade PG,SG
2. (17) Chauncey Billups PG
3. (32) Paul Pierce SG,SF
4. (41) Rasheed Wallace PF,C
5. (56) Ray Allen SG
6. (65) Jamal Crawford PG,SG
7. (80) Troy Murphy PF,C
8. (89) Marvin Williams SF,PF
9. (104) Grant Hill SG,SF
10. (113) Derrick Rose PG
11. (128) Derek Fisher PG
12. (137) Andres Nocioni SF,PF
13. (152) DeShawn Stevenson SG

Now that you’ve read through all that, you can read more at Fantasy Basketball Jedi, Points in the Paint, or 2nd Round Reach, and see the rosters for the entire league here. (Thanks seanlb!)