Give Me The Rock

Darko was supposed to be my Viagra, but instead he left my teams flaccid, underperforming, and with heart palpitations. It’s unfair to put the blame ALL on him, as this year saw a high on season ending injuries, guys taking off the last month of the season, and teams deliberately tanking for a high draft pick (thanks Doc Rivers, I enjoyed watching).

Was anyone else very disappointed in the NBA this year? Maybe it’s my fantasy teams, because like Nels, I didn’t win a damn thing. Some people only like to brag about what they’ve won, but here at Give Me The Rock, we feel that there is something to be learned from losing. And that means I’ve learned a whole lot this year:

Basketbawful Fantasy League: 3rd place (out of 14). F**k fantasy basketball, f**k this league, and f**k H2H. As described in this post, my team was in first place for most of the year until the H2H playoffs, when I ended up in 3rd. The guys over at Basketbawful called this league (and I’m paraphrasing and/or putting words in their mouth) the demonic love-child of Adolph Hitler and Michael Jackson.

Lesson Learned: I hate leagues with playoffs.

Yahoo Champions League: 2nd place (out of 10). Sadly, this would be my best showing on the year (I have the shiny silver trophy to show for it). Overall, it wasn’t a bad performance considering the league only had four bench spots and I dealt with the aforementioned Darko situation as well as significant injuries to Yao Ming, Michael Redd, and David West. I had high hopes for Steve Francis as my starting point guard at the beginning of the year. This ultimately led me to having a revolving door at the PG position, and employing Francis, Shaun Livingston, Mike James, Delonte West, Sam Cassell, Jose Calderon, Brevin Knight, and Tyronn Lue at various times throughout the year.

Lesson Learned: Don’t underestimate the point guard position in roto leagues. They are tough to find as free agents.

APBR League: 4th place (out of 8th). It was a roto league with about 85 categories (including minutes, FT made, FG made, 3pt percentage, disqualifications, and ejections). It also had 14 positions (2 PG, 2 SG, 1 G, 2 SF, 2 PF, 2 C, 2 UTIL) and was a daily changes league with no games limit, so overall scores were highly correlated with the number of games someone could squeeze out of their team. I did what I could considering I had no idea about some of the categories (quick, give me a player who is good in disqualifications) and the fact that by January, changing in and out 14 players everyday made it feel like I was doing my taxes rather than playing fantasy basketball.

Lesson Learned: Know your categories. And no max games limit sucks the fun out of the festivities.

Maine Hoopsters: 6th place (out of 10th). I’m most disappointed with this finish out of all the leagues I played in. It’s an auction league in which I went for the win last year and traded away most of my keepers (the one keeper I would not trade away was Jason Richardson… you can laugh now). Still, I was hoping for big things partly because this is a league I play in with friends and partly because the winner of the league gets $500+. But, this year I made a dubious auction decision (drafting an entire team of mid-round guys) and was ultimately left without any big guns. The one bright spot this year is that with my team being out of contention, I was able to hold on to some pretty solid keepers for next year - Josh Smith, Luol Deng, and Brandon Roy.

Lesson Learn: Much like Nels’ fabled mid-ball team, I tried to make my own mid-ball team, made up entirely of 3rd to 7th round players. It failed miserably.

As you can see in the GMTR mock draft (more to come on that later), any guy as high on Darko as I was doesn’t deserve to win a fantasy league. But I learned some things along the way and I realize it could be worse. I could be a Wizards fan on the verge of watching my team get destroyed in the playoffs.

Nels and mabeuf like to make fantasy basketball analogies to Jessica Biel and Svetlana Shusterman, I make mine to the stock market. You are warned.

In 1998, Brad Barber and Terrance Odean published an article titled “Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors.” Barber and Odean looked at the common stock performance of over 66,000 households from 1991 to 1996 and found that those who traded the most actually had the lowest annual return on their portfolio (11.4% versus 17.9% for the overall market). They attributed this phenomenon to behavioral bias: “People are overconfident, and overconfidence leads to too much trading.”

They identified the overabundance of information as one of the largest drivers of overconfidence. With the proliferation of both professional and amateur “experts” on television, radio, and the Internet, the amount of information we have access to has grown exponentially over the past decade. This wealth of information breeds confidence, when in fact, we’re often leading ourselves in the opposite direction. From an article on CNN Money.com:

“Your confidence goes up as you get a lot of information. But your accuracy doesn’t,” Barber said. Extra data hurts you if you misinterpret it, he said. “It’s an enticement to trade because you feel like you have better information. … What people don’t realize is that everybody else on the planet has access to this information. What you have to ask yourself is, do you have superior ability than everybody else in the world in evaluating this information?” Barber said.

While this was in reference to the stock market, they could have been just as easily been talking about anything else, including fantasy basketball. People have access to greater amounts of basketball-related information every day, primarily through the Internet (yes, even us small-time blogs contribute to the backlog of information from time to time). You can go right now and get a dozen different opinions on who to pick up, who to drop, who to trade and who to trade for. The problem is that many of these opinions contradict each other and, unless you happen to work in some capacity for the NBA, everyone else has access to the exact same information as you.

And does all this information really help improve your league performance? I’m not about to launch a 5 year study to find out, but here is a cursory glance at a competitive fantasy league:

Does your fantasy league resemble this?

At least in this one competitive league, the amount of roster moves a team makes appears to have no effect on overall team performance. If I had access to more people’s fantasy leagues, maybe I’d do a more comprehensive study, but until people start sending me their league passwords, all I have to offer you is a single anecdotal look.

So, if I’m arguing that roster movement is not the key to fantasy basketball success, what is? Much like investing, the first step is to start focusing on the long-term rather than the short. Take a look at NBA.com’s fantasy section, and you’ll be bombarded with information on who to add, who to drop, and who to trade for RIGHT NOW. It’s all very tempting, backed up with crazy trending stats to add to its credibility. But not only does everyone in the world have access to this information, more often then not, you’ll be buying at the highest point on a player. Instead of following that cycle, look at the Motley Fool’s advice on maximizing your investing wealth:

If you’re seeking long-term wealth from the market, then break the industry mold and live by two rules:

1. Buy great companies.
2. Be patient.

Those same two rules apply to fantasy basketball: acquire great players and be patient. Obviously, that easier said than done (as we’d all be millionaires with crazy good fantasy basketball teams), but there are basic methods and tools available to give you an advantage. The first is to understand your league type, rules, and scoring system. It is impossible to invest in good players if you don’t understand the rules that define what a good player is. The second is to find a good player rater system - one that matches your league setup and scoring categories. If your league counts turnovers, make sure you find one that accounts for turnovers. It’s better to have no information than inaccurate information. Third, be patient. Don’t drop someone after the first week of the season, don’t trade for guys at their peak value, and avoid picking up free agents just because they went off the previous night, unless there is some specific reason to believe their performance is repeatable. Patience, I believe, is the toughest part of the equation for investors and fantasy basketball owners alike.

Fantasy sports in general are all about entertainment first (and cash prizes second, possibly), so I can understand the why people like to trade and shuffle around their teams. I’m on board with that idea and I do it myself. I like the idea of running my own basketball team and trading helps to make me feel that I’m in control of it. My point is that 1) there is such a thing as too much information, where you begin to over think yourself and shuffle guys on and off your team with the intensity of Isiah Thomas on crack, and 2) the key to winning fantasy basketball isn’t being the first guy in your league to jump on free agents, but to identify the best players and ride them for the long haul. And as much as I like to have fun, I like to win even more.

With NBA stars falling like Zune sales, just about everyone’s fantasy teams are in need of a waiver pickup or eight. You don’t need me to run through the list (Fantasy Basketball Guy has the full rundown on the injured). But with multiple fantasy teams and even more articles discussing who to pick up and who not to, I’m frozen with information overload. Should I be interested in picking up Willie Green or not? How about Matt Barnes? Mikki Moore? Dare I say the word Nene?

Before I completely spaz, let me step back and try to examine the situation systematically. It’s best for me to look at this step by step.

1. Examine your team.

A Shallow League

In the Yahoo Champions League I’m in (a roto league with 10 teams 11 starters 4 bench players), I currently have Yao Ming, David West, Troy Murphy, and Monta Ellis on my bench. Four bench spots, 4 guys out. I also have Chris Webber hanging on by the cartilage left in his knee and Darko starting as my second center with Ming and Murphy out. The rest of the team is solid, but I currently have no reserve players.

A Slightly Deeper League

The Maine Hoops Roto League has 10 teams with 10 starters and 7 bench players. My team has been struggling all year long – “helped” out by the injuries and bad play of Tracy McGrady, Jason Richardson, Stephon Marbury, and Ron Artest. More recently, Nenad Krstic went down for the year and Josh Smith is out for at least a month. But even when healthy, this team has a major flaw (more on that to come).

2. Examine your situation.

Shallow

I was willing to wait on West when the rest of my team was healthy, but now Ming’s going to be out a while, and who knows with Ellis and Murphy. I’m getting tried of this day-to-day crap with Murphy that has lasted for weeks. Darko’s my team’s weakest link (followed by Larry Hughes), but he’s also healthy, so dropping him for someone else wouldn’t help my injury problems – especially at center. That would leave me with dropping West (with a frustrating lack of updates on his situation) or Murphy (who is aiming to come back next week, so they say).

Deeper

As mabeuf has observed, I’ve come to the point in the season where the flaws in my team have become blatantly obvious. I’m stuck in second to last place because my team can’t shoot. Thanks to many of the guys I’ve listed above, I’m last in both field goal and free throw percentage. Some of the weakest guys on my team include Quentin Richardson, Marvin Williams, and my main man, Darko. This team is in desperate need of a big-time shake-up, including making some tough trades with guys who can’t shoot but game is solid otherwise, like Artest.

3. Examine your options

Shallow

Gerald Green is probably the hottest guy out there on waivers. Rasual Butler, Ruben Patterson, and Sean May (also injured) are available as well. The search for a center isn’t quite as appealing. Since I wouldn’t touch Mutombo with a 10 foot pole, the best choices available are Rasho Nesterovic or Mikki Moore, neither of which is more appealing than Darko. Nene’s taken; he would have been a decent fit until Murphy (hopefully) returned. Of course, I could always try a pull off a trade, but I’m currently in second place, so I’m not in a rush to move injured players for less than full value.

Deeper

As I said above, this team has a problem that can only be solved with a trade. I’ve gotten to the point in the season where just about anyone on my team is available. Unfortunately, this is a difficult league to trade in (unrealistic expectations!). As for the waiver situation, Jannero Pargo is looking like a solid pickup with Chris Paul out for a month. Morris Peterson, Eduardo Najera, Sam Cassell, and Nazr Mohammed are also available. I should probably drop Quentin Richardson (as you can see – I have a problem dropping those day-to-day injured guys) and Darko is a bust at this point in the season.

4. Make a move.

Shallow

I’ve dropped Larry Hughes to ride Gerald Green until Pierce returns from injury. Since the total number of games is capped at 82 per position, I can probably ride out the injuries until Murphy comes back. I don’t feel good about waiting on West, but I’ve made it this far, so I’ve got to suck it up a little more.

Deeper

Dropped Richardson for Pargo. He’ll help with assists and FT% for the next month. I still need to work on trading some of my lower percentage guys, which as shown by RotoPoll, is more important than we all realize. mabeuf has a great list of buy low guys, Ming is a nice target for this team if I can pry him from his owner’s iron grip. I also like Caron Butler a lot, but I’ve been unsuccessful so far in trying to trade for him (And I’m not being stingy, I’ve offered Jermaine O’Neal and been rejected). I’ll keep working the trades for the sake of this team. We’ll see.

That exercise actually helped more than I expected. Give it a try in your league (if you’re a huge fantasy dork, that is).

One of my goals of writing for give me the rock (if my work is actually focused enough to be goal worthy), is to provide a go-to outlet for useful fantasy insight and discussion. So, from time to time, I’m going to talk about my fantasy teams and my fantasy participation as a case study of sorts. Maybe you can learn something, maybe I can learn something from you, maybe you’ll laugh at my sorry ass for drafting Darko on every one of my teams, or maybe it will get drowned out by the myriad of other people talking about their very important fantasy teams and leagues. I will promise you one thing, though: Good or bad, I will be different.

Today’s fantasy team update deals with the Yahoo Champions League, where my team, Dudes with Attitudes (DwA), had an absolutely spectacular draft last week. I really believe the league should fold right now and hand over the trophy to me. Of course, I believe that about every single draft I’ve ever had, but this one I feel particularly good about.

The necessary background: it’s a 10 team roto league with 11 starters (PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C, C, Util, Util, Util,), which, in addition to the normal 8 categories, also includes field goals made, offensive rebounds, and turnovers. Since who you draft should depend on the league’s scoring system, it is important to think about those extra categories: FGM, OREB, TO. Does that change the value of any players? I believe it does. This league gives more value to rebounders who can score and don’t turn the ball over (i.e., certain big men). And you’ll be able to see that in this team. In fact, this team practically grabs your throat and punches you in the face with that idea.

Note that this was an autodraft (unfortunately - I love the live draft) and I only ranked players to about 100, so I take no responsibility for Jaric ending up on my team, although I do take credit for his quick trip back to wavers. I did, however, knowingly target Steve Francis.

DwA, 2006 Yahoo Champions League
Round/Pick/Selection
1. (5) E. Brand
2. (16) Y. Ming
3. (25) G. Wallace
4. (36) M. Redd
5. (45) A. Jamison
6. (56) David West
7. (65) J. Howard
8. (76) M. Peterson
9. (85) T. Murphy
10. (96) D. Milicic
11. (105) J. Childress
12. (116) S. Francis
13. (125) Z. Pachulia
14. (136) B. Wells
15. (145) M. Jaric

Other than round 6, when I just missed out Rasheed Wallace and Chris Webber and then reached a little for West, picks 1-12 couldn’t have gone much better. Brand, Ming, Wallace, Jamison, West, Howard, and Murphy are all built for a league exactly like this one. Other than a couple of guys, it’s not a particularly injury prone team either. Clearly, the weakest part of my team is the PG position, Francis is the only PG currently on my roster. If this had been a live draft, I would have taken a flyer on at least one more point guard not named Marko Jaric. Assists will not be my friend in this league. I might also have too many of the same kind of guy (the scoring/rebounding PF type), one of which will likely have to be traded for some assists.

Overall, it was a great start for DwA. And with Darko leading the way, this team will smooth right into 1st place without too much trouble.